Tips for Tikay

[AndrewT]

For the 365 free bet, just pick a bet you like (whether that's Man U/Real/Overs/whatever) as you would for any game and then do the bet twice - turning the bet into a guaranteed +EV affair.

[tikay]

For the 365 free bet, just pick a bet you like (whether that's Man U/Real/Overs/whatever) as you would for any game and then do the bet twice - turning the bet into a guaranteed +EV affair.

Boom!

The best ideas are always the simple ones.....

[class]

My version of the B365 offer for what its worth:-

On 365, bet £50 on under 5.5 goals @ 1/14. Return = 3.57 plus stake back = £53.57

On Betfair, lay under 5.5 goals @ 1.11 for a liability of £5.50.

So on this bet if under 5.5 goals it will cost 3.57 - 5.50 = £1.93

If over 5.5 goals it will cost betfair commission on the £50 lay = £2.50

Use the £50 in play bet on Robin Van Persie to score anytime at 6/5. If it binks, you get £60, if it loses you lose nothing.

You are effectively getting odds of 24/1 for RVP to score anytime.

[Bertpup]

Got another SPOTY bet which I think could be a bit of a dirty e/w bet.

Lewis Hamilton is 11s on Betfair to win the Drivers World Championship and 3.25 to finish top 3. As I said before I don't think this year apart from Murray there are any stand out contenders. As the rest are a bit boring/semi disliked. If he wins the championship I think he is odds on to make top 3. I also think if he gets close to the championship then there is a chance that he still makes the list and top 3.

He can be had top 3 at 1/4 odds at 50/1 with Corals. Suggest 10 e/w

[Graham C]

My thinking could be wrong but Lewis will have to win a fair few GP's to win the championship wouldn't he?  He's currently 11's to win the Aussie GP and I'm guessing he's going to be about that for the rest of them, surely a more +EV bet than betting him at 11's for a year long bet would be to back him each race ?  Mind, if he starts winning the odds will start dropping but his car won't be better than the Red Bull and McLaren's for a while.

[Doobs]

My thinking could be wrong but Lewis will have to win a fair few GP's to win the championship wouldn't he?  He's currently 11's to win the Aussie GP and I'm guessing he's going to be about that for the rest of them, surely a more +EV bet than betting him at 11's for a year long bet would be to back him each race ?  Mind, if he starts winning the odds will start dropping but his car won't be better than the Red Bull and McLaren's for a while.

Though I agree, with you I think your last sentence is the wrong way round.  As far as I recall, Mercedes have faded from the start in the last two seasons.  I am also not convinced he is any less unpopular than some of his rivals for SPOTY.

So we should back him to win the Australian GP at 12/1 with Boylesports.  It is the only firm laying 12s, and beats betfair, and though a lot of pre season testing doesn't mean much, Mercedes were fastest at the last test.

Suggest putting it on the nose, Hamilton isn't an each way kind of guy and fifth the odds first three doesn't seem much of a price.

£25 on the nose on Lewis Hamilton to win the Australian GP tikay, lets get this Formula 1 column in to the positive.
 

[Tal]

My thinking could be wrong but Lewis will have to win a fair few GP's to win the championship wouldn't he?  He's currently 11's to win the Aussie GP and I'm guessing he's going to be about that for the rest of them, surely a more +EV bet than betting him at 11's for a year long bet would be to back him each race ?  Mind, if he starts winning the odds will start dropping but his car won't be better than the Red Bull and McLaren's for a while.

Two things on that jump to mind. The Aussie GP is one on its own and the main players tend not to design a car that does well there. Melbourne is an odd circuit compared to most of the others, so it's pretty much anybody's.

Secondly, Mercedes is making some very weird headlines ATM and goodness only knows what they'll offer going forward. Lewis is better than Rosberg but he needs a much better car than Mercedes offered last year to threaten. I suspect Ferrari might be competitive early on and McLaren will come good late. Just my own tuppence worth (open to negotiation down, as ever).

None of this really changes whether 50/1 represents value. I'm struggling to see him winning the driver's championship personally and 11/1 seems stingy to me for a new car and what is likely a downgrade in team. He will find it easier away from the track at Mercedes, as McLaren's sponsorship requirements are apparently pretty demanding. Maybe that helps him focus on his dog, his girlfriend (if they are back together?) his family and his driving (probably not in that order)

Tighty is more au fait with F1 than I, obv. Just making conversation, really.

[Tal]

Also, what Doobs said.

(Copy and paste)

[Graham C]

My thinking could be wrong but Lewis will have to win a fair few GP's to win the championship wouldn't he?  He's currently 11's to win the Aussie GP and I'm guessing he's going to be about that for the rest of them, surely a more +EV bet than betting him at 11's for a year long bet would be to back him each race ?  Mind, if he starts winning the odds will start dropping but his car won't be better than the Red Bull and McLaren's for a while.

Though I agree, with you I think your last sentence is the wrong way round.  As far as I recall, Mercedes have faded from the start in the last two seasons.  I am also not convinced he is any less unpopular than some of his rivals for SPOTY.

So we should back him to win the Australian GP at 12/1 with Boylesports.  It is the only firm laying 12s, and beats betfair, and though a lot of pre season testing doesn't mean much, Mercedes were fastest at the last test.

Suggest putting it on the nose, Hamilton isn't an each way kind of guy and fifth the odds first three doesn't seem much of a price.

£25 on the nose on Lewis Hamilton to win the Australian GP tikay, lets get this Formula 1 column in to the positive.
 

That's a much better way of putting it!  In simple terms (for me) he's more likely to win a couple of the first few GP's than the later ones when the others  have sorted their cars out.

[redarmi]

Don't really want to put it up as an account bet as such but if we are going to utilise the free bet offer with 365 then I think betting Man United twice to win is the best route.  I am planning on doing a substantial amount of work on the game today because my gut feeling is that Man United shouldn't be a 2-1 shot at home to anyone ever and I really don't care if they are playing Melchester Rovers.......

[outragous76]

Don't really want to put it up as an account bet as such but if we are going to utilise the free bet offer with 365 then I think betting Man United twice to win is the best route.  I am planning on doing a substantial amount of work on the game today because my gut feeling is that Man United shouldn't be a 2-1 shot at home to anyone ever and I really don't care if they are playing Melchester Rovers.......

was coming here to post this  - 3.2 on Coral

[TightEnd]

Got another SPOTY bet which I think could be a bit of a dirty e/w bet.

Lewis Hamilton is 11s on Betfair to win the Drivers World Championship and 3.25 to finish top 3. As I said before I don't think this year apart from Murray there are any stand out contenders. As the rest are a bit boring/semi disliked. If he wins the championship I think he is odds on to make top 3. I also think if he gets close to the championship then there is a chance that he still makes the list and top 3.

He can be had top 3 at 1/4 odds at 50/1 with Corals. Suggest 10 e/w

He didn't win SPOTY the year he won the WDC

He's not popular with many, and a lot of the races aren't on terrestial TV live (which I feel is also an important reason to ignore Phil Taylor. Easy to overlook how many of the voting public just don't watch Darts etc on Sky Sports)

Don't see him winning the WDC, outside bet to get close to it, more likely a winner of a few individual races

Don't really see 50-1 as any value, would want at least double that

I accept its not a stand-out year in terms of events (no world cup/olympics/ryder cup etc)

[Nico29]

Got another SPOTY bet which I think could be a bit of a dirty e/w bet.

Lewis Hamilton is 11s on Betfair to win the Drivers World Championship and 3.25 to finish top 3. As I said before I don't think this year apart from Murray there are any stand out contenders. As the rest are a bit boring/semi disliked. If he wins the championship I think he is odds on to make top 3. I also think if he gets close to the championship then there is a chance that he still makes the list and top 3.

He can be had top 3 at 1/4 odds at 50/1 with Corals. Suggest 10 e/w

Don't know if this has already been said but meh.

Quite liked yr logic and look of this bet, then saw you could get 23.0 top 3 on betfair.

Thus if you do like the bet back the win with betfred@66's and the place@23 on betfair.

[TightEnd]

feel the terrestial point is important

Murray could win Wimbledon, if he does it will be on BBC

England should win the Ashes. Alistair Cook is one of the World's great batsmen, going to be an all time great, captain in what used to be a mass viewing sport

Has no chance in SPOTY as so few watch it on Sky

England could win the Rugby Grand Slam.Thats terrestial. The Lions might win in Australia with Robshaw captain. but its on Sky and few will see it to vote for it


Find it difficult to see beyond Murray at the mo

[DungBeetle]

I'm a big fan of how Brigton are going at he moment, but Bristol City seem too long to me at Ashton Gate at 9/4.  The have been beating all comers at home since O'Driscoll became manager (4 wins on the bounce?).  I think Brighton might well win, but 9/4 on City is value in my book.

Any thoughts?