Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Just call it a Fred recommend.

[tikay]

i think for cheltenham there are/ will be so many in is hard to keep up

If i get time i will try and post a summary of offers/money back/free bets on this thread every morning for that day

That'd be great, if you are able, thank you.

[tikay]

Just call it a Fred recommend.

OK, unless anyone demurs, a new Punter will go on the Sheet specifically for such offers, "Fred".

This will be effective 8am YESTERDAY.

So the William Hill PO bet on Jezki yesterday is now owned by "Fred", (it is currently NOT on the Spready) & today's expected wager on Long Run ditto, rinse repeat.

[tikay]

Today's William Hill Priority Offer - RULING Required

They are offering Jezki @ 7/1.

Jezki is on offer across the Board elsewhere at between 100/30 & 5/1.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/cheltenham-festival/supreme-novices-hurdle/winner

I have no idea what prospect Jezki has, but given the price disparity, it seemed a must bet.

In anticipation of someone suggesting the bet, I tried for £30, & got this message.....


The following offer is on your requested bet:
12th Mar 2013 - William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle - Jezki
£20.00 @ 7/1 Estimated Returns: £160.00
We can give you an additional offer of:
12th Mar 2013 - William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle - Jezki
£10.00 @ 5/1 Estimated Returns: £60.00

So, I have taken £20 @ 7/1. I declined the additional £10 @ 5/1.

Note we already have £20 @ 8/1, down to Ralph.

I think, if we generally agree, that the additional £20 @ 7/1 should be booked to Ralph, as he originally gave that horse.

This is the BetSlip, which I will keep off-thread if we think that is the right & proper route.

11 Mar 2013 - 12th Mar 2013 - William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle - Outright

Jezki  @ 7/1

Stake : £20.00
Estimated Returns : £160.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000287/F

I'm quite happy to keep the bet off-thread if need be.

Mere:

Please allocate this bet to "FRED".

ON

[tikay]

Daily Summary, @ 0900, Wednesday March 6th

For the 2nd straight day, NO bets completed yesterday, so P & L remains unchanged.

This was despite the busiest day on the thread I can recall, most of it around the Man U game, where scores of different suggestions arose. The bookies had a wonderful evening, & it is probable that we saved money by missing the game completely.

We placed two bets, on Trott Top Batter, & Hamilton to win the Aussie GP.

I'll Update our Cheltenham position shortly.

[BigAdz]

I am not so sure that just because a horse is offered at 20% bigger price(or what ever they offer) automatically makes it a bet.

I would prefer to see a few people agree it has a chance before placing the bet.

If we adopt the back blindly policy, I could offer you lots of horses to back that are bigger price on betty that are guarenteed to run, but are much bigger prices than the village.

[tikay]

I am not so sure that just because a horse is offered at 20% bigger price(or what ever they offer) automatically makes it a bet.
I would prefer to see a few people agree it has a chance before placing the bet.

If we adopt the back blindly policy, I could offer you lots of horses to back that are bigger price on betty that are guarenteed to run, but are much bigger prices than the village.

Yes, but if we are talking about a very liquid market, (say, Long Run @ Cheltenham), & Long Run is 6/1 across the board, (15/2 BetFair I think) surely 10/1 MUST be value, no?

Here is the current Market....



http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/cheltenham-festival/cheltenham-gold-cup/winner

[tikay]

I took the William Hill Priority Offer on Long Run.

I asked for £30 EW @ 10/1.

The Message was....

Alert - your bet has not been placed
Please review the offer below and tick the parts of the bet you would like to place before clicking place bet.
The following offer is on your requested bet:
15th Mar 2013 - Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup - Long Run
£10.00 e/w @ 10/1
 
Estimated Returns: £145.00
We can give you an additional offer of:
15th Mar 2013 - Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup - Long Run
£20.00 e/w @ 7/1
 
Estimated Returns: £215.00


I accepted the £10 EW @ 10/1 (confirmed in NEXT Post) & declined the additional £20 EW @ 7/1.

[tikay]

We have £10 EW @ 10/1, William Hill, Long Run to win the Gold Cup. This is a PRIORITY OFFER.

The bet is owned by "FRED".

ON

13 Mar 2013 - 15th Mar 2013 - Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup - Outright
Tip It
Long Run  @ 10/1  EW @ 1/4 1-3
Stake : £20.00 (£10.00 x 2)
Estimated Returns : £
145.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0000289/F

[BigAdz]

I am not so sure that just because a horse is offered at 20% bigger price(or what ever they offer) automatically makes it a bet.
I would prefer to see a few people agree it has a chance before placing the bet.

If we adopt the back blindly policy, I could offer you lots of horses to back that are bigger price on betty that are guarenteed to run, but are much bigger prices than the village.

Yes, but if we are talking about a very liquid market, (say, Long Run @ Cheltenham), & Long Run is 6/1 across the board, (15/2 BetFair I think) surely 10/1 MUST be value, no?

Here is the current Market....



http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/cheltenham-festival/cheltenham-gold-cup/winner

I know I am fighting a losing battle with everyone on this, but just because something is bigger odds than it should be, but no one can see it winning then surely we pass it up. There has to be a balance no?

[horseplayer]

I am not so sure that just because a horse is offered at 20% bigger price(or what ever they offer) automatically makes it a bet.
I would prefer to see a few people agree it has a chance before placing the bet.

If we adopt the back blindly policy, I could offer you lots of horses to back that are bigger price on betty that are guarenteed to run, but are much bigger prices than the village.

Yes, but if we are talking about a very liquid market, (say, Long Run @ Cheltenham), & Long Run is 6/1 across the board, (15/2 BetFair I think) surely 10/1 MUST be value, no?

Here is the current Market....



http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/cheltenham-festival/cheltenham-gold-cup/winner

I know I am fighting a losing battle with everyone on this, but just because something is bigger odds than it should be, but no one can see it winning then surely we pass it up. There has to be a balance no?

there is a balance thread does not back them all and rightly so

i dont particularly fancy long run but it is very very hard to argue that 10-1 in a market this "correct" is not at least 2pts to big whatever your view of the horse is

[tikay]

I am not so sure that just because a horse is offered at 20% bigger price(or what ever they offer) automatically makes it a bet.
I would prefer to see a few people agree it has a chance before placing the bet.

If we adopt the back blindly policy, I could offer you lots of horses to back that are bigger price on betty that are guarenteed to run, but are much bigger prices than the village.

Yes, but if we are talking about a very liquid market, (say, Long Run @ Cheltenham), & Long Run is 6/1 across the board, (15/2 BetFair I think) surely 10/1 MUST be value, no?

Here is the current Market....



http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/cheltenham-festival/cheltenham-gold-cup/winner

I know I am fighting a losing battle with everyone on this, but just because something is bigger odds than it should be, but no one can see it winning then surely we pass it up. There has to be a balance no?

Yes, balance & common-sense is needed, & we don't usually bet them blind.

My point, in the current cases, in a very liquid market, is that the prices are significanly above the market generally, and Betfair.

Does that not make them value?

In thinly traded, less prominent stuff, I agree entirely. The suggestion is not for ALL Priority Offers & Promos, just the Cheltenham batch.

An example where I agree with you would be the Bet365 offer yesterday - that one HAD to be discussed, because we needed to find our own selection.

[tikay]

Awkward, 'innit?

[tikay]

Meanwhile, can anyone spot anything interesting here?

These are the "Festival Specials" (Top trainer/Jockey/Distances) etc.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/racing-specials/long-term

At Cheltenham last season, when Fred was but a month old, we had our then biggest win to date, when Algorithm Galloway gave us Nicky Henderdson Top Trainer @ 3/1, & we had £50 on.

EDIT - We only had ONE other winner at Cheltenham last year - £50 EW on Finians Rainbow, (Mahogany Vic) which won at 5/1, for over £300 Profit. Those two bets gave us a very profitable Cheltenham 2012. 

[BigAdz]

Yes, you're probably right.

Because I feel I know my onions on the gee gees the ordinary value rules sometimes get skewed. If someone made the same offers on, say, F1, I would be in like Flynn, no questions asked.

Sometimes, ignorance IS bliss!