Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

"Also, thanks for the Huddersfield tip - long story (involving a misclick) but I ended up with THREE bets on Huddersfield, 1 for Fred & two for myself. "


I mean, could you possibly run any better?

They won 32-8  as 12 point dogs!!!

Yup, what a situation, to win so convincingly, too.

Talking of run-good, this is not intended as a chirp, but......

I was tidying up my Off-Sheet Spready last night I struggle for time but I had an hour spare so tried to get it up to date. I faithfully record ALL my bets, but not always the Results, which does not matter so much, as the Results can always be found later.

I found a bet on Dynaste to win the Gold Cup @ 380/1 with Betfair. I blame Adzy, £5 down the swanee there. Price now 1000/1.

I also found this one on Betfair, again, I blame Adzy. I placed it on January 2nd. Adzy is a bloody idiot I tell ya.


   
GB / Chelt 15th Mar / Gold Cup  Bold Sir Brian Back 24369930329  02-Jan-13
17:22    100 5.00  110 02-Jan-13 17:22 


And then, right next to it, I found this....


GB / Chelt 12th Mar / Supreme Nov Hrd  My Tent Or Yours Back 24369958043  02-Jan-13
17:25    19 10.00  19 02-Jan-13 17:25   


My Tent Or Yours, £10 @ 18/1! Current price 7/4.

Adzy will claim the credit, but I'm not having that. All my own work. 

[tikay]

That is truly awful.


Captain Cook joined Ian Bell and Michael Vaughan overnight in scoring a hundred against all 8 test-playing nations.

Wow, very clever.

[tikay]

here is a baffling one for a saturday morning

(do not read if eating)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-21711343

notes :

guy who probably would have been in goal for brazil in 2014 jailed

kidnapped his girlfriend and son

paid a childhood friend to kill her chop her body up and feed it to dogs

Jeez, Hell hath no fury.

Not for here, I'll do it on my Diary, but that story of the MP Chris Huhne (sp?) who got his missus to take his speeding points is a right purler. Jeez, the pair of them must be well pissed off now.

[horseplayer]

bet suggestion

4.00 Meydan Al Maktoum Challenge R3

for a group one race this is very weak in my opinion.

Hunters Light heads the market and is solid in form and runs well here no problem. My only query is really had an easy trip last time and that race does not look much cop either formwise. I just cant have this horse as a genuine group 1 race but then again this is not really a proper group 1 hard to ignore but at the price i can let it win.

Next in is Little Mike who won the breeders cup turf last time out at 25-1 and is second favourite this. Impressive career strike rate through the grades on turf in america before that shock win. Has one all weather career run and made find the tapeta a different kettle of fish to the american turf, having said that runs up with the pace which suits around here. Again i can see it winning but 5-1 is no giveaway first time here.

Ex Mark Johnstone handicapper Monterosso is next, turned into a dubai gold cup winner last season by sun the desert and more than probably some kind of aiding substance (or two) Has always needed the run before after a break and probably will here seems weak in the market.

I like TRAILBLAZER at 14-1. On the santa anita form with little mike it cant win but it got an awful trip that day and ran on very well. Seems to be effective on any trip has plenty of good polytrack form in Japan and is pretty classy at his best, The jockey is Mr Take who would be nobodies favourite but he is what he is. He usually races up with the pace and hopefully can get first run here.


Suggest £10 win TRAILBLAZER 14-1 BOYLESPORTS, BETVICTOR OR PADDY POWER (doesnt matter as none will be bog on this) prices vary short as 9-1 with hills whose international compiler is pretty good.

[Bad Beat]

 That Betfred bet looks good. Take it I say.

 If you fancy opening a new account Jennings have a special. It's for account holders only and the maximum bet is £25. It's a double Sprinter Sacre and Simonsig at 2/1. At current Betfair prices the correct price is just under 6/4.

[tikay]

Thanks horsey, Neil, on my way.....

[tikay]

bet suggestion

4.00 Meydan Al Maktoum Challenge R3

for a group one race this is very weak in my opinion.

Hunters Light heads the market and is solid in form and runs well here no problem. My only query is really had an easy trip last time and that race does not look much cop either formwise. I just cant have this horse as a genuine group 1 race but then again this is not really a proper group 1 hard to ignore but at the price i can let it win.

Next in is Little Mike who won the breeders cup turf last time out at 25-1 and is second favourite this. Impressive career strike rate through the grades on turf in america before that shock win. Has one all weather career run and made find the tapeta a different kettle of fish to the american turf, having said that runs up with the pace which suits around here. Again i can see it winning but 5-1 is no giveaway first time here.

Ex Mark Johnstone handicapper Monterosso is next, turned into a dubai gold cup winner last season by sun the desert and more than probably some kind of aiding substance (or two) Has always needed the run before after a break and probably will here seems weak in the market.

I like TRAILBLAZER at 14-1. On the santa anita form with little mike it cant win but it got an awful trip that day and ran on very well. Seems to be effective on any trip has plenty of good polytrack form in Japan and is pretty classy at his best, The jockey is Mr Take who would be nobodies favourite but he is what he is. He usually races up with the pace and hopefully can get first run here.


Suggest £10 win TRAILBLAZER 14-1 BOYLESPORTS, BETVICTOR OR PADDY POWER (doesnt matter as none will be bog on this) prices vary short as 9-1 with hills whose international compiler is pretty good.

Thanks horsey.

Readers should bear in mind that horsey's method involves betting lots of long-priced shots, & the thread he ran here - all bets proofed in advance - was stunningly profitable, but it relied on "plenty & often", so doing these bets now & then has high variance. Fred would defintely follow them blind.

Anyway, we are safely on.

We have £10 @ 14/1, BetVictor, TRAILBLAZER, 4pm Meydan.

ON

Meydan (United Arab Emirates) 16:00
TRAILBLAZER
(Horse Racing Outright)
Odds:  14/1
Stake:  10.00
Possible Return:  150.00

[Doobs]

Hi Tikay , 20/1  'seems' a good price but is this one of those strage scenarios whereby, although all the individual odds added up make it a bet in theory, when all odds combined/and combined with them ALL having to happen together should distort the overall oddds(i.e20/1) dunno i aleays find these tricky, enough of my rambling we need some real maths wiz on the case

I sort of sense the same, but I don't really understand the math.

There is no distortion of the maths.  It is just your brain not understanding randomness correctly.  Bit like when the same number comes up twice in a row at roulette.  Your brain will tell you wow that is unlikely, but the reality was it was just as likely to come up as any other number.

I haven't checked the maths but on the face of it 20/1 no winners looks very good.

[tikay]

I see Betfred are offering 25/1 on MTOY, Simonsig, Hurricane Fly and Quevega all winning. This is of no interest to me, but they are offering 20/1 on all of them to get beat. I maybe looking at this wrong but at the current betfair prices, an acca on them all to win would be 28/1 and all to get beat is 11/1. This offer is available on the web under day 1 acca till 11am. I think this is worth bet even if its only a fiver.My amateur workings out;

MTOY not win (1.5)* Simonsig not to win (2.37) * Hurricane Fly not to win (1.42) * Quevega not to win *(2.42)  = 12.21 = 11/1






      

Thanks, we got blessing for this from no less than Neil Channing & Doobsy, so we are not only on, but we rather naughtily doubled the suggestion to £10. We are in so deep next week we may as well be hung for a sheep as a lamb.....

We have £10 @ 20/1, BetFred, My Tent Or Yours, Simonsig, Hurricane Fly, & Quevega, ALL TO GET BEATEN.

ON


cheltenham 13:30
First Day Acca
 My Tent Or Yours, Simonsig, Hurricane Fly & Quevega None To Win 20/1 
Total stake £ 10.00
Estimated return £ 210.00

Full stake £ 10.00
Full estimated return £ 210.00

[Marky147]

I see Betfred are offering 25/1 on MTOY, Simonsig, Hurricane Fly and Quevega all winning. This is of no interest to me, but they are offering 20/1 on all of them to get beat. I maybe looking at this wrong but at the current betfair prices, an acca on them all to win would be 28/1 and all to get beat is 11/1. This offer is available on the web under day 1 acca till 11am. I think this is worth bet even if its only a fiver.My amateur workings out;

MTOY not win (1.5)* Simonsig not to win (2.37) * Hurricane Fly not to win (1.42) * Quevega not to win *(2.42)  = 12.21 = 11/1






      

Thanks, we got blessing for this from no less than Neil Channing & Doobsy, so we are not only on, but we rather naughtily doubled the suggestion to £10. We are in so deep next week we may as well be hung for a sheep as a lamb.....

We have £10 @ 20/1, BetFred, My Tent Or Yours, Simonsig, Hurricane Fly, & Quevega, ALL TO GET BEATEN.

ON


cheltenham 13:30
First Day Acca
 My Tent Or Yours, Simonsig, Hurricane Fly & Quevega None To Win 20/1 
Total stake £ 10.00
Estimated return £ 210.00

Full stake £ 10.00
Full estimated return £ 210.00

MBN

I was allowed £5, but they wait until I've deposited £20 to tell me of course

[TightEnd]

ice-cream question time

Henderson is 4/6 Top Cheltenham trainer

I am looking for a sporting alternative for interest

Nicholls is 10-1 in a spot, I gather edit 9-1

Is that an interesting price, or who would you suggest as an alternative?

thank you


http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/racing-specials/long-term/cheltenham-festival/top-trainer

this got missed, or else no one cares

any views please?

[Doobs]

I see Betfred are offering 25/1 on MTOY, Simonsig, Hurricane Fly and Quevega all winning. This is of no interest to me, but they are offering 20/1 on all of them to get beat. I maybe looking at this wrong but at the current betfair prices, an acca on them all to win would be 28/1 and all to get beat is 11/1. This offer is available on the web under day 1 acca till 11am. I think this is worth bet even if its only a fiver.My amateur workings out;

MTOY not win (1.5)* Simonsig not to win (2.37) * Hurricane Fly not to win (1.42) * Quevega not to win *(2.42)  = 12.21 = 11/1






      

Thanks, we got blessing for this from no less than Neil Channing & Doobsy, so we are not only on, but we rather naughtily doubled the suggestion to £10. We are in so deep next week we may as well be hung for a sheep as a lamb.....

We have £10 @ 20/1, BetFred, My Tent Or Yours, Simonsig, Hurricane Fly, & Quevega, ALL TO GET BEATEN.

ON


cheltenham 13:30
First Day Acca
 My Tent Or Yours, Simonsig, Hurricane Fly & Quevega None To Win 20/1 
Total stake £ 10.00
Estimated return £ 210.00

Full stake £ 10.00
Full estimated return £ 210.00

MBN

I was allowed £5, but they wait until I've deposited £20 to tell me of course

Got limited to £12.50, but found a £50 free bet.  MBN

[Marky147]

I see Betfred are offering 25/1 on MTOY, Simonsig, Hurricane Fly and Quevega all winning. This is of no interest to me, but they are offering 20/1 on all of them to get beat. I maybe looking at this wrong but at the current betfair prices, an acca on them all to win would be 28/1 and all to get beat is 11/1. This offer is available on the web under day 1 acca till 11am. I think this is worth bet even if its only a fiver.My amateur workings out;

MTOY not win (1.5)* Simonsig not to win (2.37) * Hurricane Fly not to win (1.42) * Quevega not to win *(2.42)  = 12.21 = 11/1






      

Thanks, we got blessing for this from no less than Neil Channing & Doobsy, so we are not only on, but we rather naughtily doubled the suggestion to £10. We are in so deep next week we may as well be hung for a sheep as a lamb.....

We have £10 @ 20/1, BetFred, My Tent Or Yours, Simonsig, Hurricane Fly, & Quevega, ALL TO GET BEATEN.

ON


cheltenham 13:30
First Day Acca
 My Tent Or Yours, Simonsig, Hurricane Fly & Quevega None To Win 20/1 
Total stake £ 10.00
Estimated return £ 210.00

Full stake £ 10.00
Full estimated return £ 210.00

MBN

I was allowed £5, but they wait until I've deposited £20 to tell me of course

Got limited to £12.50, but found a £50 free bet.  MBN

#neverending

[tikay]

That Betfred bet looks good. Take it I say.

 If you fancy opening a new account Jennings have a special. It's for account holders only and the maximum bet is £25. It's a double Sprinter Sacre and Simonsig at 2/1. At current Betfair prices the correct price is just under 6/4.

Done, thanks Neil.

Opened the Account, painless, before I had even finished inputting my details I got the e-Mail from them, deposited, placed bet, job done. Note, however, the Bet is restricted to MOBILE customers only, so I did it that way.

We have a £25 DOUBLE @ 2/1, Jennings, SimonSig (Arkle Trophy) & Sprinter Sacre (Queen Mother Champion Chase).

ON


Bet O/0179262/0000001
Date: 2013-03-09 11:57:34
Bet Type: DBL
Stake: £25.00
Stake per line:  £25.00
Refund: £0.00
Winnings: £0.00
Settled/Unsettled: N
Leg Type:  W
Number Of Selections:  2
Number Of Legs:  2
Number Of Lines 1
Number Of Lines Void:  0
Number Of Lines Won:  0
Number Of Lines Lost:  0

[tikay]

ice-cream question time

Henderson is 4/6 Top Cheltenham trainer

I am looking for a sporting alternative for interest

Nicholls is 10-1 in a spot, I gather edit 9-1

Is that an interesting price, or who would you suggest as an alternative?

thank you


http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/racing-specials/long-term/cheltenham-festival/top-trainer

this got missed, or else no one cares

any views please?

If it is value, I care!

I need help on it though.