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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16362638 times)
maldini32
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« Reply #33465 on: March 12, 2013, 10:12:30 AM »

Channings "5" were Jezki, Champagne Fever, Cause of Causes, Cheltnian, Puffin Billy

His staking was slightly different but il do it reduce your variance slightly (ie the most ev bet can be the highest variance one, so will take that into consideration)

All with Hills 1/4 top 5

Jezki £100ew @9/2 BOG
Champagne Fever £80ew @5/1 BOG
Puffin Billy £60ew @12/1 BOG
Cause of causes £50ew @ 25/1 BOG
Cheltnian £40ew @ 25/1 BOG

Something along them lines. Alternatively you could just have maximum each way on all of them, or take an opinion on the race and increase variance. Id recommend just clicking the maximum button and seeing where it takes you....

 Cool
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rfgqqabc
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« Reply #33466 on: March 12, 2013, 10:15:05 AM »

Channings "5" were Jezki, Champagne Fever, Cause of Causes, Cheltnian, Puffin Billy

His staking was slightly different but il do it reduce your variance slightly (ie the most ev bet can be the highest variance one, so will take that into consideration)

All with Hills 1/4 top 5

Jezki £100ew @9/2 BOG
Champagne Fever £80ew @5/1 BOG
Puffin Billy £60ew @12/1 BOG
Cause of causes £50ew @ 25/1 BOG
Cheltnian £40ew @ 25/1 BOG

Something along them lines. Alternatively you could just have maximum each way on all of them, or take an opinion on the race and increase variance. Id recommend just clicking the maximum button and seeing where it takes you....

This taking into account Fred's roll? Seems really big.

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Tonji
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« Reply #33467 on: March 12, 2013, 10:15:13 AM »

Hope Cheltenham goes well for you Tikay & all the fred gee gee guys.  
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« Reply #33468 on: March 12, 2013, 10:15:21 AM »

 Seriously laughing out loud here.
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Marky147
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« Reply #33469 on: March 12, 2013, 10:15:40 AM »

I had backed MTOY a while back on instruction from Adz, but had forgotten about it until after the Betfair Hurdle when he text me in a very jovial mood for obvious reasons.

I've done Champagne Fever win only with Victor on their moneyback offer and I did Jezki on the Hills priority pricing a while back...

Haha, Tikay is going to need a lie down before the O8 tonight after seeing Dubai's post Cheesy
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Bad Beat
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« Reply #33470 on: March 12, 2013, 10:16:24 AM »

Seems incredibly difficult to lose all the money.

 Sounds like a great plan Dave.
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« Reply #33471 on: March 12, 2013, 10:17:06 AM »

Channings "5" were Jezki, Champagne Fever, Cause of Causes, Cheltnian, Puffin Billy

His staking was slightly different but il do it reduce your variance slightly (ie the most ev bet can be the highest variance one, so will take that into consideration)

All with Hills 1/4 top 5

Jezki £100ew @9/2 BOG
Champagne Fever £80ew @5/1 BOG
Puffin Billy £60ew @12/1 BOG
Cause of causes £50ew @ 25/1 BOG
Cheltnian £40ew @ 25/1 BOG

Something along them lines. Alternatively you could just have maximum each way on all of them, or take an opinion on the race and increase variance. Id recommend just clicking the maximum button and seeing where it takes you....

This taking into account Fred's roll? Seems really big.



They are all related contingencies, would take one hell of a bad beat to ever lose the lot and majority of time we lose small having a couple placed or win massive by having the winner.
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Doobs
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« Reply #33472 on: March 12, 2013, 10:17:30 AM »


Gone for a cold shower & a lie-down.

Back soon.

Got Un Atout, Dodging Bullets and River Maigue too, if that hels.  To be fair I was just clicking buttons.  I am absolutely sure Neil has given it more thought.

Might have to include the two 25/1 shots now as well!
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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« Reply #33473 on: March 12, 2013, 10:20:54 AM »

 Notice that Devilfish (who is actually pretty good at horses) tipped River Mague. I personally didn't really think much of it, but maybe it should be considered.

 I have to stress. They don't just GIVE you money very often.

 They must be punished. Let's see if we can wipe out three hours of FOBT profits.
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« Reply #33474 on: March 12, 2013, 10:23:39 AM »

Obv whilst Dave's staking plan seems very Dubaiesque for Fred, it's entirely correct as it's not a punt in the traditional sense, because the chances of us not needing to visit the Win window at all after the race are so slim.

This is like the time the Vic did that ridic roulette promo where they made it +EV to play - we're covering most of the board here.
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Doobs
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« Reply #33475 on: March 12, 2013, 10:27:27 AM »

Obv whilst Dave's staking plan seems very Dubaiesque for Fred, it's entirely correct as it's not a punt in the traditional sense, because the chances of us not needing to visit the Win window at all after the race are so slim.

This is like the time the Vic did that ridic roulette promo where they made it +EV to play - we're covering most of the board here.

Am now piqué sous short of covering the whole board.  Assuming neither of the no hopers wins.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
tikay
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« Reply #33476 on: March 12, 2013, 10:31:32 AM »


We will back the following five.......


Jezki £100ew @9/2 BOG
Champagne Fever £80ew @5/1 BOG
Puffin Billy £60ew @12/1 BOG
Cause of causes £50ew @ 25/1 BOG
Cheltnian £40ew @ 25/1 BOG

We shall do so on MOBILE, to ensure we get the deal.

£660, no, I plan to reduce that, as I have had some of these myself, already.

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« Reply #33477 on: March 12, 2013, 10:33:14 AM »

Obv whilst Dave's staking plan seems very Dubaiesque for Fred, it's entirely correct as it's not a punt in the traditional sense, because the chances of us not needing to visit the Win window at all after the race are so slim.

This is like the time the Vic did that ridic roulette promo where they made it +EV to play - we're covering most of the board here.

Thanks for the replies guys, I know it makes sense but I normally stake similar to Fred but simply cannot face that bill this time. I'll figure some staking plan out.

Dubai odds on Hills account lasting when they see you took 5 maxs out in one go?!?!?! I'm presuming the festival itself will provide a lot of cover but it does seem to be a factor worth considering.
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TightEnd
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« Reply #33478 on: March 12, 2013, 10:36:07 AM »


We will back the following five.......


Jezki £100ew @9/2 BOG
Champagne Fever £80ew @5/1 BOG
Puffin Billy £60ew @12/1 BOG
Cause of causes £50ew @ 25/1 BOG
Cheltnian £40ew @ 25/1 BOG

We shall do so on MOBILE, to ensure we get the deal.

£660, no, I plan to reduce that, as I have had some of these myself, already.



good luck

could you transfer your personal Champagne and Jezki WH stuff to the thread to make up the totals?
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« Reply #33479 on: March 12, 2013, 10:36:19 AM »

Oooooh racing to go ahead is now 1.02 on betty  

1st race now 2.05pm
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