Tips for Tikay

[Dubai]

Well im banned from bf in my name- obv tried to login through blsq and shock theres a problem. So defo not THAT seperate

[Dubai]

I know I'm not known here but thought you all might be interested in an opportunity.

Pinny have quick moving lines for most things which meaning anything which is far off tends to get adjusted pretty quickly and usually means they are pretty near to perfect. This is good as it enables us to see compare the lines available at other books and assuming pinny are correct, we can bet any significant line differences elsewhere comfortable that we are picking up solid equity. Today bet365 appear to be way off with their 5 inning total lines on a number of games, in some spots offering upto 2 extra runs whilst posting the under at the same price.

I understand you can't get on there and I'm not known so you might just want a watching brief but the following are incredible bets:

MIN/DET u5.5 @20/23 (pinny line is 3.5)
LAA/CIN u5 @5/6 (pinny line is 3.5)
SEA/OAK u4.5 @ 4/5 (pinny line is 3.5)

Just an update about this. All three pipped and 365 paid up. I guess I'll find out later if they still want to lay me bets.

Well done - it was a great spot, irresective of whether they won or lost, with the only caveat being if it was a palpable error.

However......

Are you SURE all three were winners?

MIN/DET u5.5 @20/23 (pinny line is 3.5)

I took this to be Detroit Tigers v Minnesota Twins - which ended 4-2 as far as I can see? I may, of course, be confused. I often am.....

They were 5 innings lines, not game lines

[tikay]

I never knew either, I must live in my own little world, oblivious to all. Thanks horsey.

Have Betfair taken over Blue Square's Sports Book? Just the Sports Book, or Poker as well?

As to Blue Square......

My Blue Square Account has been migrated to Betfair (I logged in & got it confirmed after I saw horsey's Post), & the correct balance is now in Betfair, however, it has NOT been consolidated with my Betfair Funds, it is in a seperate Account.

I had to confirm my Blue Square Username & Password, which I did, & it said (words to the effect), "your Blue Square & Betfair passwords are now the same, congrats, happy betting, bla bla". 

My Username on BlueSquare was DIFFERENT to my Username on Betfair.

So I now seem to have TWO Betfair Accounts, accessible by using different Usernames.

Presumably, these will shortly be consolidated? Makes no sense to me to have two completely different Accounts & lumps of cash on the same site.

from what i can garner they may stay separate for now

all bets that were waiting with bluesq are now with betfairs sportsbook and will be returned to betfair balance if they win.

Gotcha, thanks.

As far as I can see, I do not have any Open Bets with Blue Square, so I'm not sure how money will ever migrate from my (ex) Blue Sq Betfair Account to the "original" Betty Account.

So, at present, I have the ability to use two different Accounts on Betty. All a bit odd.

[tikay]

I know I'm not known here but thought you all might be interested in an opportunity.

Pinny have quick moving lines for most things which meaning anything which is far off tends to get adjusted pretty quickly and usually means they are pretty near to perfect. This is good as it enables us to see compare the lines available at other books and assuming pinny are correct, we can bet any significant line differences elsewhere comfortable that we are picking up solid equity. Today bet365 appear to be way off with their 5 inning total lines on a number of games, in some spots offering upto 2 extra runs whilst posting the under at the same price.

I understand you can't get on there and I'm not known so you might just want a watching brief but the following are incredible bets:

MIN/DET u5.5 @20/23 (pinny line is 3.5)
LAA/CIN u5 @5/6 (pinny line is 3.5)
SEA/OAK u4.5 @ 4/5 (pinny line is 3.5)

Just an update about this. All three pipped and 365 paid up. I guess I'll find out later if they still want to lay me bets.

Well done - it was a great spot, irresective of whether they won or lost, with the only caveat being if it was a palpable error.

However......

Are you SURE all three were winners?

MIN/DET u5.5 @20/23 (pinny line is 3.5)

I took this to be Detroit Tigers v Minnesota Twins - which ended 4-2 as far as I can see? I may, of course, be confused. I often am.....

They were 5 innings lines, not game lines

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[Dubai]

Looks like a great race to smash into today

Recommend the following all in 4:10 Exeter

£100ew Jayo 4/1 Hills for BOG, Boyles, Betfred
£100ew Betabob 9/1 Hills for BOG, Boyles,
£100ew Noble Ben 14/1 Hills for BOG, Boyles

This is free equity. Never seen any of the horses run, and dont need to. Our equity in the race is as follows

Jayo

Win -3.4%
Place +11.1%

Betabob

Win -1.66
Place +9.7%

Noble Ben

Win -1.4%
place +9.4%

[Dubai]

And then obv pray for no runners pulled out

[Dubai]

You can modify stakes to reduce variance if you like ie

£150ew@4s
£70ew@14s
£50ew@20s

[EvilPie]

Looks like a great race to smash into today

Recommend the following all in 4:10 Exeter

£100ew Jayo 4/1 Hills for BOG, Boyles, Betfred
£100ew Betabob 9/1 Hills for BOG, Boyles,
£100ew Noble Ben 14/1 Hills for BOG, Boyles

This is free equity. Never seen any of the horses run, and dont need to. Our equity in the race is as follows

Jayo

Win -3.4%
Place +11.1%

Betabob

Win -1.66
Place +9.7%

Noble Ben

Win -1.4%
place +9.4%

I don't get this at all. Any chance of explaining it? No worries if you haven't got time, I'm not betting on it anyway I was just interested is all.

[Dubai]

Thats our equity in bets. For example

Jayo we are taking 4/1, its 5/1 betfair so we have a rough expectation of -3.4% on the win bet. Ie for every £100 win bet we have, longterm we should lose £3.40

However at 1/5 odds top 3, we are getting 4/5  the place, on betfair its roughly 1/2 - we have a rough expectation of +11.1% on the place bet, longterm we win £11.10 for every £100 we place.

[Dubai]

Thats a conservative estimate. The win part is technically 4.9-1 on bf not 5-1 and the place part is probably around 1.48 not 1.5 on there

Obviously the best thing to do would be find a similar race and a horse with a similar profile and do each way double. As we would be getting 9/4 about a 5/4 shot on the place part of the double

[horseplayer]

obviously it makes sense

are hunter chase races slightly more risky for this type of bet though?

genuine question

[The Camel]

obviously it makes sense

are hunter chase races slightly more risky for this type of bet though?

genuine question

Less likely to be blatant non triers in hunter chasers imo.

[Dubai]

No idea, as i said i didnt look at race and never seen any of them- id assume any dangers associated with hunter chases, ie falling, is already factored into the place prices anyway

[tikay]

Oh dear God no, here we go again.......

[horseplayer]

obviously it makes sense

are hunter chase races slightly more risky for this type of bet though?

genuine question

Less likely to be blatant non triers in hunter chasers imo.

yes fair point

more likely to be worse jockeys/horses

suppose it balances out