Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

What is the current max bet?

Guilty as charged. 

May I enter a plea of mitigation Mr Compliance Officer?

[tikay]

Middlesborough vs Posh.

Spectacularly nose-diving Middlesbrough are striving to avoid a 12th loss in 15 Championship games in 2013, and a fifth in a row.  Tony Mowbray's side have picked up one win from their last eight, and only two in this calendar year.  

Posh, fighting for lives, unbeaten in 6 & winning last 2 on trot.

Posh 12/5.

Hi Waz,

As Lord Chompy noted, we were on Posh HT/FT already, though as I Posted when I placed His Chompships bet, I would have preferred "Outright" over HT/FT.

Anyway, Posh failed to deliver, as with everything we touched yesterday, so in the end it mattered not.

[tikay]

I've got some sort of aversion problem here, I don't want to open the Spready & do the Update. Can't think why.....

OK, here we go. Look away now.

[tikay]

Daily Report @ 0840, Wednesday April 3rd

LOSS on Month = £638.30

Outstanding bets £1,183.50



https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=23

[tikay]

Daily Summary, @ 0840, Wednesday April 3rd

Good morning.

Below is a list of all our winners yesterday.

[tikay]

Daily Summary, @ 0840, Wednesday April 3rd (Part Two)

We lost........£620 yesterday.

Think we all know the score.

The Exteter coup turned into a proper bloodbath, & Peterborough failed to oblige, too.

Mondy gave us a winner - in plain English (what was the chance of that?) - & I missed it. It won, obv.

We did similar stuff at Cheltenham in the opener (Dubai & Lord Channing) & we got the lot. Ditto in the World Cup Qualifiers (Dubai), same again, we got home nicely. This time we failed. Nothing is certain in gambling.

We could chew the cud on this all day, but in probability we'd do the same again. We might bet less, (Bankroll Rules) though we could say rules are there to be broken. When it suits us....

My bigger issue would be with imperilling our Accounts, which I'm keen to avoid. 

Anyway, another problem for another day.

I thought the summing up, after the event, by redarmi absolutely nailed it. We HAVE run good, we WERE due a setback, & there is no need to press any panic buttons to try & recover losses this month.  We were running at an ROI of 5%, which, really, was over-achieving. Now it is back to 3.7, which, I hope, more represents where we are.

[tikay]

tikay

8.30pm tonight ch 426 redarmi's Tampa Bay Rays v the Orioles

There are 162 games in a baseball season for every team so it is silly to put too much emphasis on any individual game but this is a decent early test.  Price should be able to win this matchup if he is anything like as good as last year.  Be nice to get off to a win.

On the Dubai bets couple of minor points but worth making.  We don't have the rest of the month to make it up.  Months, days, weeks are false timescales that force us into bad decisions.  The absolute minimum period we should be assessing anything over is 3 months.  In the last month we have run ridiculously well even though we have had +EV we have run so far above EV it is ridiculous.  The England game was a great example and so was Cheltenham.  These losers probably just mean we are running close to EV now.  From a mental perspective it is massively important not to get too excited when we win and not worry too much when we lose so long as we are making the right decisions which I think we largely are now.  Just think everytime you bet £100, I have just made a fiver (roughly of course).  So long as you are rolled for it the rest will take care of itself.

There you go. Nailed it.

[tikay]

What else went off yesterday?

Well we stated the Baseball Season, & our major interest is in the Tampa Bay Rays.

They lost 7-4 to the Orioles.   

We are also on Kansas City Royals, @80/1.

They lost 1-0 to the White Sox on Monday.

We are now on Brighton, big-time, to be Promoted, & we rushed to make sure we got on before they won, at home, in style, last night. They hit the woodwork twice in the last few minutes, too.

They only drew 0-0.

All going to plan, then.

Aintree starts tomorrow, likely to be interesting, & busy, for us, & the Grand National is Saturday.

We have a Darts bet for tomorrow. We are overdue a Darts win after a bad day on Monday.

The World Snooker starts in a few weeks, we have a bit of interest already.

The Masters is barely a week away.

And we have interests in Promotion & Relegation in a lot of other football stuff, we have an IPL bet, a County Cricket bet, Lions Tour stuff, the Greyhound Derby, Basketball (LeBron MVP, which must be imminent?), Europa League, Champions League, Horse Racing Classics, & assorted other stuff. Oh, & the bloody Eurovision Snog Contest.

How can we lose?

[BigAdz]

You don't need to be a shrink to sense our Hero feels a little bit wounded today.

Fear ye not Tikay, Sinsae Channing will save our collective bacon v soon. I can smell it sizzling.

I on the other hand feel my goose is about to be cooked as I set off on my stag do, at the tender age of 45.

Be gentle Liverpool.

[tikay]

You don't need to be a shrink to sense our Hero feels a little bit wounded today.

Fear ye not Tikay, Sinsae Channing will save our collective bacon v soon. I can smell it sizzling.

I on the other hand feel my goose is about to be cooked as I set off on my stag do, at the tender age of 45.

Be gentle Liverpool.

I feel more for Dubai to be honest, really, his ROI has been shot to smithereens!

He is STILL £577 in Profit though, with a positive ROI of almost 15% over 60 bets. Not so bad, imo.

Looking forward to Neil's Aintree stuff,  should be interesting.

Enjoy that Stag do, & Aintree.

[scotty2hatty]

I've seen you kick yourself a few times about seemingly missing winners, when in reality you haven't. Mond's posts were in no way a tip, seemed like he was more after info about the pricing. It got no feedback.

[tikay]

I've seen you kick yourself a few times about seemingly missing winners, when in reality you haven't. Mond's posts were in no way a tip, seemed like he was more after info about the pricing. It got no feedback.

True.

I just really want the Thread to be more inclusive, & accessible to everyone. To do that, we must encourage those who have not been much involved before.

Mondy also happens to be a very special mate, yet to have a Fred winner.

Had I not been so busy & disorganised yesterday, I would almost certainly have had a small interest on his behalf. I had a truly awesome day yesterday, climaxed by ME doing a Grand National Preview on Live Telly. What? Still, I got a mention in of Chompy. Nice mention, obv. Sort of.

I must tell you, though it is a bit personal, Mondy is some special man, or he is to me. Only he & I know why, but he has said some lovely things to me (privately, where it belongs) recently. At least, I THINK they were nice. You can never tell with Ray, he can barely speak audible English. He's a Mackem, see?

[TightEnd]

Good luck with the Brighton bet (after this weekend, when our comeback starts. He says unconvincingly)

but its still a £300 bet on them making the play offs as you can't lay off half unless they do, and therefore again breaking the self imposed bankroll rules...

and the post is full of hyperbolic statements such as  "the best goalkeeper" etc...

All of which are challengeable, minimum.

and the Championship playoffs are going to be as tight as they have been for many years. Can't have Brighton favourites over Watford or Hull, could have them favourites over Palace and Forest I suppose but every game in those is going to be nasty

9/2 doesn't do it much for me at this stage.

Anyway, I'll be cheering the bet on....(for the most part!)

[tikay]

PS to Scottty.

How are our Greyhound Derby jobbies coming along?

Hoping, assuming it is on TV tomorrow, you can run the TV Greyhound thingie again, as you did last week. Good fun that.

[TheChipPrince]

I'm on Brighton ante-post too, but if there all the 'best' in their positions Poyet should be out of a job in 6th no?!

Camel's Brighton love affair continues i see