Tips for Tikay

[Snowball]

In game? Or each leg?

No idea of stats but guess 4/7 under 5/4 over if I was a bookie

His very first 3 Darts in the match.

[Chompy]

Peanuts > Baked Potato

[Hawk]

Looking towards the US Open at Merion
With it not being the longest course on the Open rota I am thinking that if Donald can get his game it to shape he has a great chance, and with his odds being from 28-33/1 is it worth having a punt now?

[Tal]

Peanuts > Baked Potato

Baked potato for me, but you make a solid case.

Johnny Vegas in the same seat in both, curiously.

[tikay]

Looking towards the US Open at Merion
With it not being the longest course on the Open rota I am thinking that if Donald can get his game it to shape he has a great chance, and with his odds being from 28-33/1 is it worth having a punt now?

The key is, as you say, getting his game in shape. Thought he was disappoiinting at Augusta. Not talking through my pocket, as I never backed him. Think he was the only one I did not back, in fact.......

[Tal]

I'll do some special relativity on your other thread, tikay, when I get chance.

Bloomin love Reeves and Mortimer, tho.

Balance, see?

[Bazzaboy]

In game? Or each leg?

No idea of stats but guess 4/7 under 5/4 over if I was a bookie

His very first 3 Darts in the match.

Would be guessing but I don't think the 1/2 6/4 Dubai put up would be far out.

[tikay]

Peanuts > Baked Potato

Baked potato for me, but you make a solid case.

Johnny Vegas in the same seat in both, curiously.

Tal, what IS the matter with you? That masquerades as HUMOUR these days?

There are excuses for Chompy, that passes for a Royal Variety Performance in St Neots (don't forget, Tuesday is Bin Day), but there is no excuse for the better-bred type such as yourself. Pembroke will be ashamed.

[TightEnd]

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/world-championship/ricky-walden-v-michael-holt/winner

£40 Holt to beat Walden at 13/8 Ladbrokes please

Starts 10am tomorrow, best of 19

Walden has failed to get beyond the second round of 9 of the 13 ranking tournaments this year, and is definitely one of the better draws for a qualifier to get

Holt is a talent, albeit a touch inconsistent. Some evidence for this can be seen from his leading MAark Joyce in the final qualifier 7-1 but only winning 10-7. A touch streaky.

Has played at the Crucible before


Elsewhere tomorrow, Lisowski who we are on is a modest dog to Hawkins in the betting. I have him as firm favourite, not Even money plays 10/11. 

Michael White in 9/4 to beat Williams. Williams is too short at 4/9, frankly, but recent much improved form mitigates against a second bet for me

 

[tikay]

I'll do some special relativity on your other thread, tikay, when I get chance.

Bloomin love Reeves and Mortimer, tho.

Balance, see?

Yes, more maths on my Diary please, but Jeeves & Mortimer? Really?

I had you down for better.

[Snowball]

In game? Or each leg?

No idea of stats but guess 4/7 under 5/4 over if I was a bookie

His very first 3 Darts in the match.

Would be guessing but I don't think the 1/2 6/4 Dubai put up would be far out.

Sky have went 2/1 his last 5 games, of which he has been overs in 3 of them (obviously the only times I got involved he was under), every other player he has played has been 7/4, I don't get them odds.He's averaging over 100 the past 6 months whch means his first 9 Darts is around 110.

[tikay]

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/world-championship/ricky-walden-v-michael-holt/winner

£40 Holt to beat Walden at 13/8 Ladbrokes please

Starts 10am tomorrow, best of 19

Walden has failed to get beyond the second round of 9 of the 13 ranking tournaments this year, and is definitely one of the better draws for a qualifier to get

Holt is a talent, albeit a touch inconsistent. Some evidence for this can be seen from his leading MAark Joyce in the final qualifier 7-1 but only winning 10-7. A touch streaky.

Has played at the Crucible before


Elsewhere tomorrow, Lisowski who we are on is a modest dog to Hawkins in the betting. I have him as firm favourite, not Even money plays 10/11. 

Michael White in 9/4 to beat Williams. Williams is too short at 4/9, frankly, but recent much improved form mitigates against a second bet for me

 

Got it Rich, thanks. I assume you mean 10am Saturday, not tomorrow?

£40 @ 13/8, Ladbrokes, Holt to beat Walden.


ON

M Holt
Ricky Walden v Michael Holt

 Singles - Match Betting

1 line @ £40.0 per line
.
Total Stake £40.00

Potential Return £105.00

Receipt No: O/142640973/0000322

[TightEnd]

Saturday yes, sorry

the days merge into one...

[Doobs]

betfair (sportsbook) refunding upto £100 if ronnies wins the title and you back someone else

not sure what bets were placed yesterday so might be irrelevant now

Free bet is here.

https://promotions.betfair.com/sbk-wc-snooker

This is all just information, I am not going to get involved in the ins and outs of if 13/2 or above on Neil Robertson was value.

They are offering 6/1 the top 4

Given the prices elsewhere then if you were to back Robertson, this is currently the best way to do it.

He is best price 13/2 elsewhere which beats betfair (7.2/7.4 curretly).  We can argue all day about what is his correct price, but assume he is 13/2 to win for the comparison. 

If we put £50 on Robertson the expected return on Betfair fixed odds would be £50/7.5x7 (Robertson wins) + £50/7.6 (O'Sullivan wins, 7.6 is the same assumption as yesterday) = £53.24. 

If you backed him at 13/2 and he was 13/2 to win, your expected return would be £50 long run.

To conclude, if you wanted to back Robertson, this offer effectively means you get better value than backing at best odds.

I think Shaun Murphy is marginally better then best price this way too (though you can only back one player under the offer). I haven't gone down further than 50/1, but don't think any of the others were better than best price if you backed them under the offer.

I have no interest or knowledge of snooker.  Can someone just tell me what (if any) bets are +EV given this offer.  I quiote fancy picking up the free fiver in EV but dont want to work for an hour to do it!!!!

You didn't need to spend an hour, I had already done so.

If you had put £50 on this and the Selby bet from yesterday, you'd expect to make 8% long run on the assumptions I used.

The betfair market has nearly £200k matched and has a 2% overound.  I'd expect the prices on the top 4 in the betting to be near correct, but even if they aren't the maths is pretty forgiving on these bets.

Say the market had got the mid price for O'Sullivan, Selby and Robertson were all 10% shorter than the real odds of the player winning the championship and every other player was 7 or 8% or so too big.  

This seems a bit unlikely to me, but even if all the prices were that far out, we would still make about 0.6% long run on the bet.

Another example would be that O'Sullivan was in great form and should really be 3/1.  Even if you can say that, and then speculate that the Selby and Robertson should be as high as 9/1, you would still only lose 2.5% long run by making these two bets.

Of course if it turns out O'Sullivan is really rusty and his head isn't in it, then his price is too short.  In that case, the Selby and Robertson prices should really be shorter then we would be quids in and expect to make significantly more than 8% long run.

As of now, the Robertson price has gone on Betfair and given the frosty reception all this maths has got so far, I don't have any desire to do any more trawling.  The Selby 13/2 price is still available at BetVictor, as is the offer.
 

[Dubai]

In game? Or each leg?

No idea of stats but guess 4/7 under 5/4 over if I was a bookie

His very first 3 Darts in the match.

Would be guessing but I don't think the 1/2 6/4 Dubai put up would be far out.

Sky have went 2/1 his last 5 games, of which he has been overs in 3 of them (obviously the only times I got involved he was under), every other player he has played has been 7/4, I don't get them odds.He's averaging over 100 the past 6 months whch means his first 9 Darts is around 110.

As I said not looked at stats but average score is a lot different to median score. If he threw 180, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100 his average would be 113 but has only thrown over 110 1/6