Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

betfair (sportsbook) refunding upto £100 if ronnies wins the title and you back someone else

not sure what bets were placed yesterday so might be irrelevant now

Free bet is here.

https://promotions.betfair.com/sbk-wc-snooker

This is all just information, I am not going to get involved in the ins and outs of if 13/2 or above on Neil Robertson was value.

They are offering 6/1 the top 4

Given the prices elsewhere then if you were to back Robertson, this is currently the best way to do it.

He is best price 13/2 elsewhere which beats betfair (7.2/7.4 curretly).  We can argue all day about what is his correct price, but assume he is 13/2 to win for the comparison. 

If we put £50 on Robertson the expected return on Betfair fixed odds would be £50/7.5x7 (Robertson wins) + £50/7.6 (O'Sullivan wins, 7.6 is the same assumption as yesterday) = £53.24. 

If you backed him at 13/2 and he was 13/2 to win, your expected return would be £50 long run.

To conclude, if you wanted to back Robertson, this offer effectively means you get better value than backing at best odds.

I think Shaun Murphy is marginally better then best price this way too (though you can only back one player under the offer). I haven't gone down further than 50/1, but don't think any of the others were better than best price if you backed them under the offer.

I have no interest or knowledge of snooker.  Can someone just tell me what (if any) bets are +EV given this offer.  I quiote fancy picking up the free fiver in EV but dont want to work for an hour to do it!!!!

You didn't need to spend an hour, I had already done so.

If you had put £50 on this and the Selby bet from yesterday, you'd expect to make 8% long run on the assumptions I used.

The betfair market has nearly £200k matched and has a 2% overound.  I'd expect the prices on the top 4 in the betting to be near correct, but even if they aren't the maths is pretty forgiving on these bets.

Say the market had got the mid price for O'Sullivan, Selby and Robertson were all 10% shorter than the real odds of the player winning the championship and every other player was 7 or 8% or so too big.  

This seems a bit unlikely to me, but even if all the prices were that far out, we would still make about 0.6% long run on the bet.

Another example would be that O'Sullivan was in great form and should really be 3/1.  Even if you can say that, and then speculate that the Selby and Robertson should be as high as 9/1, you would still only lose 2.5% long run by making these two bets.

Of course if it turns out O'Sullivan is really rusty and his head isn't in it, then his price is too short.  In that case, the Selby and Robertson prices should really be shorter then we would be quids in and expect to make significantly more than 8% long run.

As of now, the Robertson price has gone on Betfair and given the frosty reception all this maths has got so far, I don't have any desire to do any more trawling.  The Selby 13/2 price is still available at BetVictor, as is the offer.
 

Completely missed that £50 Free Bet Doobs. Has to be a bet.

Will get sorted shortly.

[Doobs]

betfair (sportsbook) refunding upto £100 if ronnies wins the title and you back someone else

not sure what bets were placed yesterday so might be irrelevant now

Free bet is here.

https://promotions.betfair.com/sbk-wc-snooker

This is all just information, I am not going to get involved in the ins and outs of if 13/2 or above on Neil Robertson was value.

They are offering 6/1 the top 4

Given the prices elsewhere then if you were to back Robertson, this is currently the best way to do it.

He is best price 13/2 elsewhere which beats betfair (7.2/7.4 curretly).  We can argue all day about what is his correct price, but assume he is 13/2 to win for the comparison. 

If we put £50 on Robertson the expected return on Betfair fixed odds would be £50/7.5x7 (Robertson wins) + £50/7.6 (O'Sullivan wins, 7.6 is the same assumption as yesterday) = £53.24. 

If you backed him at 13/2 and he was 13/2 to win, your expected return would be £50 long run.

To conclude, if you wanted to back Robertson, this offer effectively means you get better value than backing at best odds.

I think Shaun Murphy is marginally better then best price this way too (though you can only back one player under the offer). I haven't gone down further than 50/1, but don't think any of the others were better than best price if you backed them under the offer.

I have no interest or knowledge of snooker.  Can someone just tell me what (if any) bets are +EV given this offer.  I quiote fancy picking up the free fiver in EV but dont want to work for an hour to do it!!!!

You didn't need to spend an hour, I had already done so.

If you had put £50 on this and the Selby bet from yesterday, you'd expect to make 8% long run on the assumptions I used.

The betfair market has nearly £200k matched and has a 2% overound.  I'd expect the prices on the top 4 in the betting to be near correct, but even if they aren't the maths is pretty forgiving on these bets.

Say the market had got the mid price for O'Sullivan, Selby and Robertson were all 10% shorter than the real odds of the player winning the championship and every other player was 7 or 8% or so too big.  

This seems a bit unlikely to me, but even if all the prices were that far out, we would still make about 0.6% long run on the bet.

Another example would be that O'Sullivan was in great form and should really be 3/1.  Even if you can say that, and then speculate that the Selby and Robertson should be as high as 9/1, you would still only lose 2.5% long run by making these two bets.

Of course if it turns out O'Sullivan is really rusty and his head isn't in it, then his price is too short.  In that case, the Selby and Robertson prices should really be shorter then we would be quids in and expect to make significantly more than 8% long run.

As of now, the Robertson price has gone on Betfair and given the frosty reception all this maths has got so far, I don't have any desire to do any more trawling.  The Selby 13/2 price is still available at BetVictor, as is the offer.
 

Completely missed that £50 Free Bet Doobs. Has to be a bet.

Will get sorted shortly.

You have the Selby one, the Robertson one has gone.  Don't do anything!

[tikay]

Shush, don't bok the Barney Bet..............8 sets in, 5-3 Barney, & no sign of a 180 from PT.

[Tal]

Mr T is not liking the crowd's level of encouragement

[vegaslover]

Looking towards the US Open at Merion
With it not being the longest course on the Open rota I am thinking that if Donald can get his game it to shape he has a great chance, and with his odds being from 28-33/1 is it worth having a punt now?

The key is, as you say, getting his game in shape. Thought he was disappoiinting at Augusta. Not talking through my pocket, as I never backed him. Think he was the only one I did not back, in fact.......

I would want a much bigger price. Donald well out of form for months now and doesn't do well in majors either

[tikay]

Taylor v Barney
Recommend Taylot 180s under 2.5, he has only managed to beat this line once in his last 10 PLD matches, everywhere else is 4/6 or lower.
Sporting Bet  are 17/20

Best priced (that I can see) is now 8/11, Sporting Bet.

Is that a bit too short?

Wrong match. Taylor v Barney not Hamilton

You are CORRECT.

Safely aboard, thanks Bazza.

We have £40 @ 17/20, Sporting Bet, Taylor v Barney, Taylor UNDER 2.5 x 180's.

ON

Bet Type: Single
Raymond van Barneveld v Phil Taylor Phil Taylor Total 180s
Under 2.5
17/20
Darts Possible Payout 74.00 GBP
1 bet @
40.00 GBP 
Total Cost: 40.00 GBP Total Possible Payout
(inc. stake): 74.00 GBP

Bazza Bazza BOOM!

At last, a winner.

Well done Bazza.

[outragous76]

you gotta love Taylor!

[Bazzaboy]

Taylor v Barney
Recommend Taylot 180s under 2.5, he has only managed to beat this line once in his last 10 PLD matches, everywhere else is 4/6 or lower.
Sporting Bet  are 17/20

Best priced (that I can see) is now 8/11, Sporting Bet.

Is that a bit too short?

Wrong match. Taylor v Barney not Hamilton

You are CORRECT.

Safely aboard, thanks Bazza.

We have £40 @ 17/20, Sporting Bet, Taylor v Barney, Taylor UNDER 2.5 x 180's.

ON

Bet Type: Single
Raymond van Barneveld v Phil Taylor Phil Taylor Total 180s
Under 2.5
17/20
Darts Possible Payout 74.00 GBP
1 bet @
40.00 GBP 
Total Cost: 40.00 GBP Total Possible Payout
(inc. stake): 74.00 GBP

Bazza Bazza BOOM!

At last, a winner.

Well done Bazza.

Credit to Snowy not me.

Never in doubt. Just as well you didn't misclick and do the Taylor v Hamilton match!

[tikay]

Taylor v Barney
Recommend Taylot 180s under 2.5, he has only managed to beat this line once in his last 10 PLD matches, everywhere else is 4/6 or lower.
Sporting Bet  are 17/20

Best priced (that I can see) is now 8/11, Sporting Bet.

Is that a bit too short?

Wrong match. Taylor v Barney not Hamilton

You are CORRECT.

Safely aboard, thanks Bazza.

We have £40 @ 17/20, Sporting Bet, Taylor v Barney, Taylor UNDER 2.5 x 180's.

ON

Bet Type: Single
Raymond van Barneveld v Phil Taylor Phil Taylor Total 180s
Under 2.5
17/20
Darts Possible Payout 74.00 GBP
1 bet @
40.00 GBP 
Total Cost: 40.00 GBP Total Possible Payout
(inc. stake): 74.00 GBP

Bazza Bazza BOOM!

At last, a winner.

Well done Bazza.

Credit to Snowy not me.

Never in doubt. Just as well you didn't misclick and do the Taylor v Hamilton match!

Bugger, sorry Snowy!

I nearly did the wrong match, too.

Bit weird the way that game ended, it was almost as if Barney wanted the draw.....

[Marky147]

you gotta love Taylor!

Victor had Barney @ 4/1 when he was 1-0 up, so I chucked a pony on and then had to watch that...

[Bazzaboy]

5 players have now played twice on a night and all have performed poorer in their 2nd match. Between 4-13 points on the averages.

[MereNovice]

If those had been Indian cricketers some of you may have commented rather differently on that match.

[outragous76]

5 players have now played twice on a night and all have performed poorer in their 2nd match. Between 4-13 points on the averages.

yarp!

Gone unders 180s (6.5) in the next and also (possibly not so solid) MVG under 100.5 ave

They just dont seem to be able to pick up after the first adrenaline rush

[tikay]

If those had been Indian cricketers some of you may have commented rather differently on that match.

The notion certainly crossed my mind, Barney took some very unusual lines near the end.

[Snowball]

5 players have now played twice on a night and all have performed poorer in their 2nd match. Between 4-13 points on the averages.

MvG said after his first match it's hard to get back up for the next game.With that and Lewis usually ups his game against MvG I have layed MvG.