Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Quite hard to follow exactly what happened on my 'phone but, at a glance, Leinier Dominguez-Perez has just won (ie, not drawn) in pretty spectacular style. After half of the game, I would have laid 1/5 on it being a draw because the opening structures seemed to leave little room for either player to make a breakthrough.

Dominguez-Perez then went for a wild attack, which is the sort of thing where it works and you're called a visionary or it fails and you're called a desperado. He threw the kitchen sink in for good measure and I imagine his heart will take a few hours to recover.

After seven draws, this really is a surprising development. Fred dodges like a boss again.

[exstream]

How many goals will Man City smash past an already relegated Reading?

[77dave]

How many goals will Man City smash past an already relegated Reading?

prob about the same as an already relegated QPR will concede against Arsenal or Man City

[Marky147]

Not sure if it has been posted yet, but Bet 365 have their £50 in running offer on for the Madrid game tomorrow night.

[aaron1867]

Had to laugh at this tweet!

[claypole]

Had to laugh at this tweet!

That's very good, saying how it is Mark

[Marky147]

Had to laugh at this tweet!

That's very good, saying how it is Mark

100% right too, he is just ridiculous and it's only my pocket that stops me wanting him to win.

[TightEnd]

The Lions Tour Squad is announced at 11

Paddy Power have come up with a series of markets on the test team

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/rugby-union

see "Lions Tour"


If we take their markets for each position and tally up the number of English players they expect to be in the Test Side

We have

Full Back 0 Unlikely to be an English player in the squad
Wing 0 Unlikely to be English winger in squad
Centre 0  Tuilagi 3rd in betting
Fly Half 0 Farrell 2nd in betting
Scrum Half 0 Youngs 2nd in betting
Back Row 0 Croft 5th in betting
Second Row 0 Parling 3rd in betting
Prop 0 Cole 3rd in betting
Hooker 0 T Youngs 3rd in betting

Of course over a Tour injuries can happen to first choice players

but we have two things here

- strong rumours for example that Robshaw is not even in the squad. This might point to a lower English representation than previously thought.

- This is consistent with Gatland's pro Welsh thoughts and the final match of the Six Nations

Tieing this in to some work I was doing on these markets, I got a first choice Lions team of


Halfpenny
North BOD Roberts Cuthbert
Sexton Phillips
Warburton Faletau Tipuric
O'Connell AWJ
Healy Hibbard A Jones

No English, 11 Welsh


So then, take a look at

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/rugby-union/lions-tour-12?ev_oc_grp_ids=1228236

Under 2.5 English in the Test XV is a big bet in my opinion. Lets call in half tikay-kelly, £75 or so

The price here is completely inconsistent with Paddy Power's sub markets via position as outlined above

Either they are wrong, or this quote is wrong, unless we get unlucky on injuries in multiple positions to presumed first choice starters

Playing it the other way, the sub markets have 9 Welsh players in the favourites by position

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/rugby-union/lions-tour-12?ev_oc_grp_ids=1228235

Yet the starting Welsh players market is over 7.5

This is too low. You could have the other half tikay-Kelly on the Overs here

(they are correlated so you might choose to play one or the other)

Preferably done before 11am



edit

On the injuries. In only five positions if a first choice player in the betting is injured is an English player "next up"

Centre, where Tuilagi has a shot behind O'Driscoll and Roberts
Sexton at Fly half
Phillips at scrum half
Tight Head Prop, Dan Cole behind Adam Jones
Second Row where Parling has been played out of the assumed side by O'Connell

Injuries to all more than two of these? It can happen, but that would be unlucky variance

Injuries at fullback, wing, back row, hooker probably don't see English players next up

[TightEnd]

Here's a 1/4 shot that really is a 1/10 shot

Wales

Out of 15 I would be stunned if they had less than 8 test starters

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/rugby-union/lions-tour-12?ev_oc_grp_ids=1228302


I have six certainties

Warburton (assumed captain)
Halfpenny
North
Cuthbert
Phillips
Adam Jones

[Eso Kral]

How do the elders price up a semi of Walden v Ding if both get through their respective QF's?

And hypothetically if you could not secure the 16/1 EW but are on WIN only at prices 16/1 - 20/1 should we be betting Ding v Walden for stakeback and a free ride or re-eval if he makes the final.

FWIW my book currently reads  -260  / +4806

[TightEnd]

How do the elders price up a semi of Walden v Ding if both get through their respective QF's?

And hypothetically if you could not secure the 16/1 EW but are on WIN only at prices 16/1 - 20/1 should we be betting Ding v Walden for stakeback and a free ride or re-eval if he makes the final.

FWIW my book currently reads  -260  / +4806

Ding 4/6 to beat Walden?

Personally (small Walden at 16/1 e/w), I will have Ding for my Walden stake back if that semi final were to happen, knowing that a Ding bet for Walden stake back is a  small dent in the e/w scoop if Walden does beat him

[TheChipPrince]

Would think a bit shorter than 4/6 but marginal.  He'll have to beat an improved Hawkins first.

Mark King said yesterday Ding in full flow is better than Ronnie, don't thing Ronnie is his best bud tho on comments in the past.

[tikay]

The Lions Tour Squad is announced at 11

Paddy Power have come up with a series of markets on the test team

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/rugby-union

see "Lions Tour"


If we take their markets for each position and tally up the number of English players they expect to be in the Test Side

We have

Full Back 0 Unlikely to be an English player in the squad
Wing 0 Unlikely to be English winger in squad
Centre 0  Tuilagi 3rd in betting
Fly Half 0 Farrell 2nd in betting
Scrum Half 0 Youngs 2nd in betting
Back Row 0 Croft 5th in betting
Second Row 0 Parling 3rd in betting
Prop 0 Cole 3rd in betting
Hooker 0 T Youngs 3rd in betting

Of course over a Tour injuries can happen to first choice players

but we have two things here

- strong rumours for example that Robshaw is not even in the squad. This might point to a lower English representation than previously thought.

- This is consistent with Gatland's pro Welsh thoughts and the final match of the Six Nations

Tieing this in to some work I was doing on these markets, I got a first choice Lions team of


Halfpenny
North BOD Roberts Cuthbert
Sexton Phillips
Warburton Faletau Tipuric
O'Connell AWJ
Healy Hibbard A Jones

No English, 11 Welsh


So then, take a look at

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/rugby-union/lions-tour-12?ev_oc_grp_ids=1228236

Under 2.5 English in the Test XV is a big bet in my opinion. Lets call in half tikay-kelly, £75 or so

The price here is completely inconsistent with Paddy Power's sub markets via position as outlined above

Either they are wrong, or this quote is wrong, unless we get unlucky on injuries in multiple positions to presumed first choice starters

Playing it the other way, the sub markets have 9 Welsh players in the favourites by position

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/rugby-union/lions-tour-12?ev_oc_grp_ids=1228235

Yet the starting Welsh players market is over 7.5

This is too low. You could have the other half tikay-Kelly on the Overs here

(they are correlated so you might choose to play one or the other)

Preferably done before 11am



edit

On the injuries. In only five positions if a first choice player in the betting is injured is an English player "next up"

Centre, where Tuilagi has a shot behind O'Driscoll and Roberts
Sexton at Fly half
Phillips at scrum half
Tight Head Prop, Dan Cole behind Adam Jones
Second Row where Parling has been played out of the assumed side by O'Connell

Injuries to all more than two of these? It can happen, but that would be unlucky variance

Injuries at fullback, wing, back row, hooker probably don't see English players next up

A beautifuly clinical analysis, Tighty.

Unfortunately, Kelly, Half Kelly, or Fred Kelly are all impossible - PP Maxed us at £5.23 & £5.49 respectively. I'd actually take that, but I'm a little rushed this morning, so hardly worth it for a fiver x 2.

Thanks anyway.

[TightEnd]

Warburton captain

:-)

[ripple11]

Warburton captain

:-)

Lovely lovely lovely