Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Mmmm, querulous

Another new word, but easy to imagine the meaning.


Hard to imagine you being so described.

PS - No, I have not made that enquiry of them as yet. Bit waylaid right now, but will do so soonest.

PPS - Have also Edited my Posts as to the matter, as some stray off-thread bets appeared to have crept into my Post.

[RickBFA]

Tikay - I see you've put both Warburton bets on the spready as winners - have Lads settled yours? They haven't mine.

Whoops.

It never crossed my mind, I completely forgot that issue. (Insert numerous excuses).

I have just checked my Accounts.

The 2nd bet was £20 @ 7/4 with William Hill, & HAS been settled as a winner, see....

16 Mar 13 / 19:01  Single 1   British & Irish Lions Tour - Who Will Be Appointed Captain Of The 2013 British Lions?  –  Who Will Be Appointed Captain Of The 2013 British Lions? Sam Warburton @ 7/4 Won £20.00 £55.00 O/0457483/0000332/F

However, the Ladbrokes bet - £10 @ 5/1 - has NOT been settled, see....


 
15/03/2013 0000289 Single (To win) 1 £10.00  2013 British Lions Tour of Australia British Lions tour captain  Sam Warburton  5/1  


Good spot Womble, apologies.

Mere - Can you correct this, please - the £10 : 5/1 for Warburton has NOT been settled, & remains an open bet.

Have you asked them why they haven't settled it?
It seems to me that Sam Warburton is the "British Lions Tour of Australia British Lions tour captain".
If were the querulous type, I would be raising this as very poor behaviour on their part.

Ladbrokes hadn't settled mine yesterday so I contacted them on live chat.

They said, "Oh yes, this bet should be settled in the next few minutes"

Half an hour later they had paid it.

Why they haven't settled them all is beyond me. I'd contact them.

[ripple11]

Idiots......cant they just press a button and settle everyones bet !!??

[tikay]

Idiots......cant they just press a button and settle everyones bet !!??

Bit odd that, they don't settle bets manually, one at a time, they would have a computer programme which auto-settles bets. Or I assumed they did.

[doubleup]

There is an interesting tournament matchbet in the Wella Fargo Championship golf this week on SpreadEx. The bet pits Hunter Mahan against Lucas Glover with both men 10/11 and the tie 14s.

Glover is coming off a seasons best tie for 4th at the Zurich Open and goes to Quail Hollow boasting a previous win at the track (2011), a 2nd (2009), a 4th (2006) and a 10th (2004). He has missed just two cuts in 9 previous tries at the course.

Mahan, on the other hand, has missed two of his past three cuts with the one make seeing him not survive the round three cut at the Heritage to finish 91st. He has broken par just once in his last 8 rounds. His best finish at Quail Hollow is a tie for 12th in 2008 and he has failed to play the weekend on 4 of his 9 appearances.

The only mitigating factor I see against Glover here is the fact his wife is due to have a child on May 16th and he has intimated he would have no hesitations in walking off the course if she went into labour early. Seems like a stretch to eliminate a plus ev bet on that basis though.

I recommend £55 for Fred at 10/11 with SpreadEx fixed odds.

any views on this (and obv a bet to win the tourney after the jacquelin incident)

[tikay]

There is an interesting tournament matchbet in the Wella Fargo Championship golf this week on SpreadEx. The bet pits Hunter Mahan against Lucas Glover with both men 10/11 and the tie 14s.

Glover is coming off a seasons best tie for 4th at the Zurich Open and goes to Quail Hollow boasting a previous win at the track (2011), a 2nd (2009), a 4th (2006) and a 10th (2004). He has missed just two cuts in 9 previous tries at the course.

Mahan, on the other hand, has missed two of his past three cuts with the one make seeing him not survive the round three cut at the Heritage to finish 91st. He has broken par just once in his last 8 rounds. His best finish at Quail Hollow is a tie for 12th in 2008 and he has failed to play the weekend on 4 of his 9 appearances.

The only mitigating factor I see against Glover here is the fact his wife is due to have a child on May 16th and he has intimated he would have no hesitations in walking off the course if she went into labour early. Seems like a stretch to eliminate a plus ev bet on that basis though.

I recommend £55 for Fred at 10/11 with SpreadEx fixed odds.

any views on this (and obv a bet to win the tourney after the jacquelin incident)

Good bump, I missed that last night. Looks a fantastic spot to me. I just need to open a Spreadex Account first.

[TightEnd]

Local Elections tomorrow

I think UKIP might clean up, relative to expectations

- The normal protest vote, Lib Dem, is off the agenda for many as they are part of the goverment

"mid-way through a parliament it is the second or third parties who steal the spoils. But Ed Miliband is polling badly for a Labour leader three years into a Tory-led government. As for the Lib Dems, the traditional protest party in local elections, Coalition has been nothing but catastrophic for them in the polls."

- UKIP is polling at national highs, 14% in the last ComRes poll this week

"The party has been riding high in the polls at around 15% over recent weeks. Don’t expect that to change off the back of a few negative stories."

Indeed there are reports that major party rubbishing of the UKIP has backfired, and it is a measure of how concerned the major parties are that the scare stories came out for the weekend press

- "UKIP is fielding 1,745 candidates, three times as many as it did the last time these seats were fought in 2009. The Lib Dems are fielding 1,763 candidates"


Recommend

£60 UKIP Share of national vote over 17.5% William Hill at 5/6

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/4390457/UKIP-national-share-of-the-vote-on-2nd-May-2013-elections..html
 

Alternative recommend

"Peter Kellner and I have been pondering the number of UKIP seat gains if they do get 22% (the joys of the YouGov office on a morning before an election!) and how on earth you model gains when they are tripling the number of seats they contest. It’s very difficult, but I suspect I have overestimated it a bit… though even assuming a higher base level of support in the areas they didn’t contest in 2009 (and therefore a lower swing in the seats they did) if they do get 22% they should still be looking at well over 100 seats. Suffice to say, how many seats UKIP will get on Thursday is still incredibly hard to predict."

Over 100 seats gained 6/4 Ladbrokes

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics-and-election/local-elections/total-ukip-seats-gained

references


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22019280

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/ YouGov have tried Local Election opinion polling and come up with a figure of 22% for UKIP, with a number of caveats

Guido Fawkes the Conservative blogger recommended over 50 seats at Evens 48 hours ago in this

http://blog.paddypower.com/2013/04/29/guido-fawkes-bring-on-the-clowns-why-im-tipping-ukip-to-take-50-seats-in-thursdays-local-elections/

Market moved to 1/10 and got withdrawn


As a cross-check, PP offer a market on UKIP share in the South Shields by-election, and make over 22.5% a 4/7 shot....

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/other-politics/uk-politics

That's in the safest Labour seat and its tricky to extrapolate any reference to national vote share but taking over 17.5% definitely feels like the best of it....




Disclaimer: Recommendation does not reflect my personal politics, just a betting transaction for financial gain, I hope

[tikay]

Local Elections tomorrow

I think UKIP might clean up, relative to expectations

- The normal protest vote, Lib Dem, is off the agenda for many as they are part of the goverment

"mid-way through a parliament it is the second or third parties who steal the spoils. But Ed Miliband is polling badly for a Labour leader three years into a Tory-led government. As for the Lib Dems, the traditional protest party in local elections, Coalition has been nothing but catastrophic for them in the polls."

- UKIP is polling at national highs, 14% in the last ComRes poll this week

"The party has been riding high in the polls at around 15% over recent weeks. Don’t expect that to change off the back of a few negative stories."

Indeed there are reports that major party rubbishing of the UKIP has backfired, and it is a measure of how concerned the major parties are that the scare stories came out for the weekend press

- "UKIP is fielding 1,745 candidates, three times as many as it did the last time these seats were fought in 2009. The Lib Dems are fielding 1,763 candidates"


Recommend

£60 UKIP Share of national vote over 17.5% William Hill at 5/6

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/4390457/UKIP-national-share-of-the-vote-on-2nd-May-2013-elections..html
 

Alternative recommend

"Peter Kellner and I have been pondering the number of UKIP seat gains if they do get 22% (the joys of the YouGov office on a morning before an election!) and how on earth you model gains when they are tripling the number of seats they contest. It’s very difficult, but I suspect I have overestimated it a bit… though even assuming a higher base level of support in the areas they didn’t contest in 2009 (and therefore a lower swing in the seats they did) if they do get 22% they should still be looking at well over 100 seats. Suffice to say, how many seats UKIP will get on Thursday is still incredibly hard to predict."

Over 100 seats gained 6/4 Ladbrokes

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics-and-election/local-elections/total-ukip-seats-gained

references


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22019280

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/ YouGov have tried Local Election opinion polling and come up with a figure of 22% for UKIP, with a number of caveats

Guido Fawkes the Conservative blogger recommended over 50 seats at Evens 48 hours ago in this

http://blog.paddypower.com/2013/04/29/guido-fawkes-bring-on-the-clowns-why-im-tipping-ukip-to-take-50-seats-in-thursdays-local-elections/

Market moved to 1/10 and got withdrawn


As a cross-check, PP offer a market on UKIP share in the South Shields by-election, and make over 22.5% a 4/7 shot....

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/other-politics/uk-politics

That's in the safest Labour seat and its tricky to extrapolate any reference to national vote share but taking over 17.5% definitely feels like the best of it....




Disclaimer: Recommendation does not reflect my personal politics, just a betting transaction for financial gain, I hope

Thanks, busy right now, bare details are....

£60 @ 5/6, Wm Hill, UKIP OVER 17.5%

ON

02 May 2013 - UKIP national share of the vote on 2nd May 2013 elections. - Local Elections

Over 17.5% @ 5/6

Stake : £60.00
Estimated Returns : £110.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000404/F

[rfgqqabc]

Thoughts on trading on the Bayern price in the final? They have Philipp Lahm, Bastian Schweinsteiger, Javi Martinez, Luiz Gustavo, Dante and Mario Gomez all who need to avoid a yellow card. Supposedly none are being rested, and if 3 of these take yellows then we may have a nice trade for a few points profit. Probably best backing Dortmund now? I presume we will be able to trade out at virtually breakeven if none take yellows.

[Dubai]

Read this theory 3 times now and all it makes me wish is I had more on Barca at evens- that's the market that will surely be affected most by half the opposition not wanting to tackle. Hence 1.84 now

[T_Mar]

Hi Tikay..

Suggested bet for this weeks Golf Euro Tour Event -  in China (obv)

Jose Manuel Lara Top Ten @ 18/1 spreadex  - If you haven't got an account with them,  BF fixed odds are 14/1 which is still a decent price imo.

Reasoning:-

-  After long run of missed cuts, he has made the last 3 including 11th last time out in Ballentines
-  Stats for last time out tourney at ballentines included 10th for driving accuracy and 9th for GIR so his game is in decent shape
-  Has won previously in Asia ()
-  China Open is played this year on Seaside course with expected high winds  -he has some decent results in such conditions, (eg siciillian, klm)
-  Has favourable draw (out early tomorrow)
-  Has come top 10, 36 times out of 348 euro tour events

I've also backed him outright @ 150/1 and also FRL @ 100/1 but think top 10 is best bet

See what anyone else thinks but for reckon 20 @ 18/1 if you can get seems good

Cheers

Tom

[BigAdz]

Laddies still insisting they wont pay out til 22nd June.

What a disgraceful bunch of robdogs.

Only had £100 at 2-1, hardly a bank breaker.

[MereNovice]

Laddies still insisting they wont pay out til 22nd June.

What a disgraceful bunch of robdogs.

Only had £100 at 2-1, hardly a bank breaker.

You might ask them why they have settled the bet for other people.
http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=56581.msg1765254#msg1765254

[BigAdz]

Tried that and was told they shouldn't have been, and basically to go away.

Would love to have closed account but beggars can't be choosers sadly

[Tal]

Tried that and was told they shouldn't have been, and basically to go away.

Would love to have closed account but beggars can't be choosers sadly

I hope you started the email with "I'm getting married tomorrow"