Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Tommy Bowe out for the Lions, 3 players gone in two days which is brutal

Good news for two Welsh wings though....

[TightEnd]

nb tikay

free bets for use while you are away, account details to Mere.

[tikay]

When I look at the spready for May it says every bet Fred had was on 'orses. Surely that can't be right?

Check your filters Jeff, any problems, I am your software guru, just ask.

[scotty2hatty]

Is Thiago Silva an extreme version of Sonny Bill Williams?

Does he not fancy a summer off?

I don't know anything about this SBW character you speak of, but one thing I do know is I aint messing with Silva....

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

I know Tikay is busy, So this is likely just for the thread regs.

Paddy Power have a similar offer.   

You get money back if you back the favourite and it finishes 2nd.  Max refund is £100 total.  It probably isn't quite as good as Hills, because we may back one that drifts to 2nd favourite by accident.  Hence I have missed a few races where that is most possible.  But I think the refund is in cash, which is better than free bets, so it is a bit swings and roundabouts.

Just take prices, they are best odds guaranteed.  Maybe £33 each on the 5 below, as refunds from 4 races and above is probably unlikely enough.  Nits can go £25 each, supernits £20 each....  or if a bit more aggro, you can maybe go £50 and miss Hoyam, as the PP price isn't that great (11/4 vs best 7/2).  You probably lose a bit of value because you might not get paid the free bet, but gain a bit because you didn't take a bad price.

Horses to include
Newmarket
13.45 GM Hopkins
14.20 Ehtedaam
14.55 Enrol
15.30 No Heretic
Haydock
15.50 Hoyam
 
If tikay is around, probably just worth putting as much as you can on with Paddy Power, as they likely restrict you anyway!

message from tikay

£20 WIN each on these 5 Paddy Power

[JaffaCake]

When I look at the spready for May it says every bet Fred had was on 'orses. Surely that can't be right?

Think you must have a filter clicked. Just tried it and it was fine:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&f=true&noheader=false&gid=24

Weird, that version looks diff to the one I got from clicking Tighty's daily report, all the filters are at the top on this one etc. Not sure what went wrong before, all other months worked, just not May, all horses. Anyway, fixed now, was trying to find where the welshies over 7/5 bets were, looks good to me

[Tal]

When I look at the spready for May it says every bet Fred had was on 'orses. Surely that can't be right?

Think you must have a filter clicked. Just tried it and it was fine:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&f=true&noheader=false&gid=24

Weird, that version looks diff to the one I got from clicking Tighty's daily report, all the filters are at the top on this one etc. Not sure what went wrong before, all other months worked, just not May, all horses. Anyway, fixed now, was trying to find where the welshies over 7/5 bets were, looks good to me

I always lift it from the OP, although it shouldn't make any difference.

[Tal]

Is Thiago Silva an extreme version of Sonny Bill Williams?

Does he not fancy a summer off?

I don't know anything about this SBW character you speak of, but one thing I do know is I aint messing with Silva....

Sonny Bill Williams is a New Zealander. He plays rugby for the All Blacks but also boxes competitively. Bit of a beast.

Your chap towers above those ladies.

[Doobs]

nb tikay

free bets for use while you are away, account details to Mere.

Well we have one.  Last race finished a yard too soon.  Need to run better.

[Doobs]

nb tikay

free bets for use while you are away, account details to Mere.

Well we have one.  Last race finished a yard too soon.  Need to run better.

Repeat of the last race.  2 free bets from Hills

[kinboshi]

Is Thiago Silva an extreme version of Sonny Bill Williams?

Does he not fancy a summer off?

I don't know anything about this SBW character you speak of, but one thing I do know is I aint messing with Silva....

Sonny Bill Williams is a New Zealander. He plays rugby for the All Blacks but also boxes competitively. Bit of a beast.

Your chap towers above those ladies.

Also plays league, and is also a bit of a nutter.

[tikay]

I know Tikay is busy, So this is likely just for the thread regs.

Paddy Power have a similar offer.    

You get money back if you back the favourite and it finishes 2nd.  Max refund is £100 total.  It probably isn't quite as good as Hills, because we may back one that drifts to 2nd favourite by accident.  Hence I have missed a few races where that is most possible.  But I think the refund is in cash, which is better than free bets, so it is a bit swings and roundabouts.

Just take prices, they are best odds guaranteed.  Maybe £33 each on the 5 below, as refunds from 4 races and above is probably unlikely enough.  Nits can go £25 each, supernits £20 each....  or if a bit more aggro, you can maybe go £50 and miss Hoyam, as the PP price isn't that great (11/4 vs best 7/2).  You probably lose a bit of value because you might not get paid the free bet, but gain a bit because you didn't take a bad price.

Horses to include
Newmarket
13.45 GM Hopkins
14.20 Ehtedaam
14.55 Enrol
15.30 No Heretic
Haydock
15.50 Hoyam
 
If tikay is around, probably just worth putting as much as you can on with Paddy Power, as they likely restrict you anyway!

Just to confirm, we got all of these on, £20 each. Details later.

So far, have received one e-mail from PP saying we have money back on the 14.55 race.

[Doobs]

I know Tikay is busy, So this is likely just for the thread regs.

Paddy Power have a similar offer.    

You get money back if you back the favourite and it finishes 2nd.  Max refund is £100 total.  It probably isn't quite as good as Hills, because we may back one that drifts to 2nd favourite by accident.  Hence I have missed a few races where that is most possible.  But I think the refund is in cash, which is better than free bets, so it is a bit swings and roundabouts.

Just take prices, they are best odds guaranteed.  Maybe £33 each on the 5 below, as refunds from 4 races and above is probably unlikely enough.  Nits can go £25 each, supernits £20 each....  or if a bit more aggro, you can maybe go £50 and miss Hoyam, as the PP price isn't that great (11/4 vs best 7/2).  You probably lose a bit of value because you might not get paid the free bet, but gain a bit because you didn't take a bad price.

Horses to include
Newmarket
13.45 GM Hopkins
14.20 Ehtedaam
14.55 Enrol
15.30 No Heretic
Haydock
15.50 Hoyam
 
If tikay is around, probably just worth putting as much as you can on with Paddy Power, as they likely restrict you anyway!

Just to confirm, we got all of these on, £20 each. Details later.

So far, have received one e-mail from PP saying we have money back on the 14.55 race.

No good.  Bad day at the office.  1 PP refund, 2 William Hill free bets.  Two 2nds, two 3rds.  Have to get it back in the free bets.

[tikay]

UFC tonight, I don't have time to type up something individually for here so will copy and paste from website but basically I recommend:

£20 Fabricio Werdum to win by decision @ 4/1 bet365
£10 Thiago Silva to win by decision @ 5/1 SkyBet

I realise that TfT can't bet with SkyBet but Ladbrokes go 13/2 UD and 9/1 split/majority decision - does someone know or can work out whether it should still a bet at the 13/2 (splits are less often seen at heavier weights). If it helps a small sample of 2012 suggests that 16% of decisions are split/majority.

The second season of The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil has recently came to an end with the coaches from that season, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Fabricio Werdum meeting in the main event of UFC on Fuel 10 in a heavyweight clash which has important implications for both men.

Nogueira is in the twilight of his career and looks to keep himself relevant and stave off retirement whilst Werdum hasn’t been seen in the cage for a year and needs the win to push himself into the heavyweight title picture.

These two men have fought before, at a Pride FC event in 2006, with Nogueira taking home the decision victory. However this time we see the result being reversed with Werdum taking home the decision victory and this result can be backed at 4/1 with bet365.

Werdum is 1/3 to win outright so 4/1 may look very large for the decision victory but that is because the general consensus sees Nogueira as on his way out and they will also have noticed that Werdum’s striking has improved dramatically but we believe those factors are being weighted too heavily.

Both these men are high-level BJJ black belts and we can’t see this fight hitting the mat too often as neither man is likely to want to risk getting caught in a submission. For that reason, we believe that the majority of this fight will take place standing, or perhaps we might see the odd scramble.

Nogueira has been known for his clean boxing skills for a number of years now but the dramatic improvements we’ve seen in Werdum’s Muay Thai skills over the last couple of years lead me to believe he will use those skills to outstrike “Big Nog” on his way to having his hand raised.

The main negative to the bet is Nogueira’s seemingly weakening punch resistance but it is not enough of a negative to detract from the value of the bet as it is our belief that Werdum’s power may only be effective for the opening two rounds of this five round fight. Both men are likely to tire late on, meaning stoppages are less likely.

One statistic that is interesting is that, according to FightMetric, Nogueira absorbs more strikes than he lands per minute (1.85:2.15) which obviously backs our theory that he will be outstruck (Werdum has a ratio of 2.77:1.85) whilst the 2.15 strike per minute absorbed isn’t too high to have a serious worry about the KO.

Our second free UFC bet for the UFC on Fuel 10 card comes in the co-main event between Thiago Silva and Rafael Cavalcante which has been talked about by most in the media as a striking war between two feared KO artists with one likely to end up being KO’d.

We’re taking a chance that this fight might not be quite as described by the media with the belief that the reputations of the two might lead to a timid fight with both fighters showing some restraint – something that is commonly seen when a fight is discussed in such a way.

We’re suggesting that a chance be taken on Thiago Silva to win this fight on by decision which can be backed at 5/1 with SkyBet as the statistics suggest that if this doesn’t end in a KO he will outstrike Cavalcante on his way to victory.

We were maxed by Bet365 at £2.50 (4/1) on the Werdum bet.

On the Silva bet, we cannot get on with Sky Bet. If someone can decode for me the suggested alternative bet with Ladbrokes, I will get that bet on.

At present, ONLY the Werdum bet is on, and only for £2.50, as we were maxed by them.

[TheDazzler]

UFC tonight, I don't have time to type up something individually for here so will copy and paste from website but basically I recommend:

£20 Fabricio Werdum to win by decision @ 4/1 bet365
£10 Thiago Silva to win by decision @ 5/1 SkyBet

I realise that TfT can't bet with SkyBet but Ladbrokes go 13/2 UD and 9/1 split/majority decision - does someone know or can work out whether it should still a bet at the 13/2 (splits are less often seen at heavier weights). If it helps a small sample of 2012 suggests that 16% of decisions are split/majority.

The second season of The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil has recently came to an end with the coaches from that season, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Fabricio Werdum meeting in the main event of UFC on Fuel 10 in a heavyweight clash which has important implications for both men.

Nogueira is in the twilight of his career and looks to keep himself relevant and stave off retirement whilst Werdum hasn’t been seen in the cage for a year and needs the win to push himself into the heavyweight title picture.

These two men have fought before, at a Pride FC event in 2006, with Nogueira taking home the decision victory. However this time we see the result being reversed with Werdum taking home the decision victory and this result can be backed at 4/1 with bet365.

Werdum is 1/3 to win outright so 4/1 may look very large for the decision victory but that is because the general consensus sees Nogueira as on his way out and they will also have noticed that Werdum’s striking has improved dramatically but we believe those factors are being weighted too heavily.

Both these men are high-level BJJ black belts and we can’t see this fight hitting the mat too often as neither man is likely to want to risk getting caught in a submission. For that reason, we believe that the majority of this fight will take place standing, or perhaps we might see the odd scramble.

Nogueira has been known for his clean boxing skills for a number of years now but the dramatic improvements we’ve seen in Werdum’s Muay Thai skills over the last couple of years lead me to believe he will use those skills to outstrike “Big Nog” on his way to having his hand raised.

The main negative to the bet is Nogueira’s seemingly weakening punch resistance but it is not enough of a negative to detract from the value of the bet as it is our belief that Werdum’s power may only be effective for the opening two rounds of this five round fight. Both men are likely to tire late on, meaning stoppages are less likely.

One statistic that is interesting is that, according to FightMetric, Nogueira absorbs more strikes than he lands per minute (1.85:2.15) which obviously backs our theory that he will be outstruck (Werdum has a ratio of 2.77:1.85) whilst the 2.15 strike per minute absorbed isn’t too high to have a serious worry about the KO.

Our second free UFC bet for the UFC on Fuel 10 card comes in the co-main event between Thiago Silva and Rafael Cavalcante which has been talked about by most in the media as a striking war between two feared KO artists with one likely to end up being KO’d.

We’re taking a chance that this fight might not be quite as described by the media with the belief that the reputations of the two might lead to a timid fight with both fighters showing some restraint – something that is commonly seen when a fight is discussed in such a way.

We’re suggesting that a chance be taken on Thiago Silva to win this fight on by decision which can be backed at 5/1 with SkyBet as the statistics suggest that if this doesn’t end in a KO he will outstrike Cavalcante on his way to victory.

We were maxed by Bet365 at £2.50 (4/1) on the Werdum bet.

On the Silva bet, we cannot get on with Sky Bet. If someone can decode for me the suggested alternative bet with Ladbrokes, I will get that bet on.

At present, ONLY the Werdum bet is on, and only for £2.50, as we were maxed by them.

I can get that bet on for you if you wish? Slightly more complicated as my B365 account is in euros but we could work it out.
We can settle up via FTP?