Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

what I am asking is

the bookmaker wants you to back favourites and attracts you in with a free bet for second

the mug punter does his first bets (net over the course of a day) when more favourites lose than win and then most won't win it back on the free bets

This is all very different (and a far less atrractive proposition for the thread) than say the Cheltenham offers where they are offering you a +EV price and not just another bet, isn't it?

Surely if we are going to do these we need to research the initial bets and not just back short favourites blind?

[TheDazzler]

Doobs did do the EV calcs for them.
They are in the region of +10%EV iirc.
So for every £10 bet, we should be getting £11 back. Run well, it's more, run bad, it's less. Obviously the sample size isn't significant yet and we're just running bad.
I've nearly busted my B365 account on all their free £50 in running footie bets as I've lost about 5 or 6 in a row. But everytime I place those £50 bets my EV must be in the region of receiving £90 back. I'm just running bad.
I'm obviously open to correction on that but I think that's the gist of it.

[Doobs]

what I am asking is

the bookmaker wants you to back favourites and attracts you in with a free bet for second

the mug punter does his first bets (net over the course of a day) when more favourites lose than win and then most won't win it back on the free bets

This is all very different (and a far less atrractive proposition for the thread) than say the Cheltenham offers where they are offering you a +EV price and not just another bet, isn't it?

Surely if we are going to do these we need to research the initial bets and not just back short favourites blind?

I am not sure I like the way this is going or the implication we are mug puttering and playing into the bookies hands.

Yes they are value, not only are they value, but there are clear value.

You back or horse at evens that has a 50% chance of winning.  If it doesn't win, you get 50% x 50% chance of money back.  So return is 1.25 for each pound invested.  

Usually the shorter the price the better, but you can get odd races where that doesn't hold.

You lose value if your back big priced horses, bet is some way away from the best price or if you use the free bet to back a short price horse.  Using the free bet at a short price horse at a bad price is a good way to spew value.  Backing a big priced horse at near best odds means we lose as little as we can on the free bet part.

I could do the maths for each of these, but haven't always hot the time, but these are all pretty clear.  

Most people will use free bets badly by backing short price horses as freebies and not realising backing short prices on the first bet is clearly best, so guess the bookies don't lose much on these offers.  We don't do this, except when my back is turned.

Sometimes we are going to have a long run ROI of 10% and still lose.  Shrugs.

[TightEnd]

thank you

in these races is it not better to find the best possible bet on form, judgement etc rather than just going for the short priced favourite?

win or lose on these offers I like to think we could apply "research" intelligence as well as "maths" intelligence rather than just putting the favourite on....

[BigAdz]

what I am asking is

the bookmaker wants you to back favourites and attracts you in with a free bet for second

the mug punter does his first bets (net over the course of a day) when more favourites lose than win and then most won't win it back on the free bets

This is all very different (and a far less atrractive proposition for the thread) than say the Cheltenham offers where they are offering you a +EV price and not just another bet, isn't it?

Surely if we are going to do these we need to research the initial bets and not just back short favourites blind?
[/quote


Does the fact you are forced to back again with the same booke in a short time period a factor?...if it was money back, it would be a bit diff but with time restricted free bets you are forced to placed, possibly less EV bets, next time out , due to bookie selection(ie price), and time issue. IMO of c

[TheDazzler]

Doobs is doing it in a mathematical way. It is + EV. Demonstrably.
Yes, you can pore through the form and try to eke out an extra 1%/2% of value with analysis of the form and whatnot. He is assuming the market is very close to correct and perhaps you can find the other 2% value if you work for it. But he's giving us an Idiots Guide.
Short price first, then long price. Wait for the long run. Even I understand that!
Other free money back bets might be more +EV but these are +EV.
Sure we'll flip £100 against that guys £120 but we also should be flipping £100 against this other guys £110.

[tikay]

Dazzler explained it exactly as I understood it from Doobsy initially, once I got my head round it.

It is pure maths, maths can't lie, but variance is fickle. We've been both sides of Mr V. 

I'm pretty sure that Messrs Camel, Channing & Max Bet Dubai very much think it a "no-brainer", but I'll ask them to comment.

 

[MereNovice]

Yarmouth 15:50   If I Had Him - 2nd for another free bet
Yarmouth 16:20   Alcaeus - Winner (Backed at 5/4 SP 4/7)
Yarmouth 16:55   Songbird - Winner (Backed at Evens SP 2/5)
Yarmouth 17:25   Poisson D'Or - Winner (Backed at 8/11 SP 8/15)

A rather successful end to the card for Doobs.

[TightEnd]

Dazzler explained it exactly as I understood it from Doobsy initially, once I got my head round it.

It is pure maths, maths can't lie, but variance is fickle. We've been both sides of Mr V. 

I'm pretty sure that Messrs Camel, Channing & Max Bet Dubai very much think it a "no-brainer", but I'll ask them to comment.

 

Yep, maybe I am being too direct.

No offence is meant

Just trying to get my head round it and update my own blind spots 


Anyway totting up there are two free bets to use from today and the six selections had W3 L3 and broke even give or take a pound

[tikay]

Dazzler explained it exactly as I understood it from Doobsy initially, once I got my head round it.

It is pure maths, maths can't lie, but variance is fickle. We've been both sides of Mr V. 

I'm pretty sure that Messrs Camel, Channing & Max Bet Dubai very much think it a "no-brainer", but I'll ask them to comment.

 

Yep, maybe I am being too direct.

No offence is meant

Just trying to get my head round it and update my own blind spots 


Anyway totting up there are two free bets to use from today and the six selections had W3 L3 and broke even give or take a pound

No, not "broke even", or not as I see it. We are now freerolling some pretty lucrative potential profit, as I see it. We have three bets to nothing. 

[TightEnd]

Dazzler explained it exactly as I understood it from Doobsy initially, once I got my head round it.

It is pure maths, maths can't lie, but variance is fickle. We've been both sides of Mr V. 

I'm pretty sure that Messrs Camel, Channing & Max Bet Dubai very much think it a "no-brainer", but I'll ask them to comment.

 

Yep, maybe I am being too direct.

No offence is meant

Just trying to get my head round it and update my own blind spots 


Anyway totting up there are two free bets to use from today and the six selections had W3 L3 and broke even give or take a pound

No, not "broke even", or not as I see it. We are now freerolling some pretty lucrative potential profit, as I see it. We have three bets to nothing. 

broke even on the day, with the two shots to nothing to come

[tikay]

Dazzler explained it exactly as I understood it from Doobsy initially, once I got my head round it.

It is pure maths, maths can't lie, but variance is fickle. We've been both sides of Mr V. 

I'm pretty sure that Messrs Camel, Channing & Max Bet Dubai very much think it a "no-brainer", but I'll ask them to comment.

 

Yep, maybe I am being too direct.

No offence is meant

Just trying to get my head round it and update my own blind spots 


Anyway totting up there are two free bets to use from today and the six selections had W3 L3 and broke even give or take a pound

No, not "broke even", or not as I see it. We are now freerolling some pretty lucrative potential profit, as I see it. We have three bets to nothing. 

broke even on the day, with the two shots to nothing to come

Ahh, I see, one now  gets one's drifty thing.

[Doobs]

Doobs is doing it in a mathematical way. It is + EV. Demonstrably.
Yes, you can pore through the form and try to eke out an extra 1%/2% of value with analysis of the form and whatnot. He is assuming the market is very close to correct and perhaps you can find the other 2% value if you work for it. But he's giving us an Idiots Guide.
Short price first, then long price. Wait for the long run. Even I understand that!
Other free money back bets might be more +EV but these are +EV.
Sure we'll flip £100 against that guys £120 but we also should be flipping £100 against this other guys £110.

The Dazzler is right.  If you have two horses in a race that are 2/1 and 5/1.  Without any extra research I can assume the 2/1 horse is more likely to be first, but not only that I cam see which is more likely to be 2nd.  And getting the horses that are more likely to be 2nd is where you get the value from.  

So if I have 5 minutes, I can check that the 2/1 price is close to the Betfair price and close to the best price.  If that checks out then I can assume I am not going to lose much value from the bet and that I can make about 10% or £2.50 a bet.  Not only that but because the Betfair market is close to perfect I can assume that backing the 2/1 is going to be the best option way more of the time than the 5/1 chance and conclude I don't add much by doing "research".  

It is always the case that shorter is always better, in the Coronation Cup the other week, I was fairly certain that Dunedin was more likely to be 2nd than first, but that was only because the favourite was do short.

Where I could add some value it is when one horse is 2/1 and another 5/2.  Given 15 minutes or so I could probably come to a better conclusion on which was best. But then we get to Dazzler's other point if I do all this research I may be able to get 12% or maybe even 14%.  It is important to get the 10% or £2.50, and I can do that easily and quickly. The extra 2% or so is te consuming and probably only makes me 50p or so if I was any good at it.  

There is another thing, people assume they are way more knowledgeable than they really are, so after all this extra time working out how to scrape this extra 50p, it may well be the case that I am more likely to lose 50p than gain it.

So yes you could probably improve on this, but it really isn't worth the effort.  

[Doobs]

Doobs is doing it in a mathematical way. It is + EV. Demonstrably.
Yes, you can pore through the form and try to eke out an extra 1%/2% of value with analysis of the form and whatnot. He is assuming the market is very close to correct and perhaps you can find the other 2% value if you work for it. But he's giving us an Idiots Guide.
Short price first, then long price. Wait for the long run. Even I understand that!
Other free money back bets might be more +EV but these are +EV.
Sure we'll flip £100 against that guys £120 but we also should be flipping £100 against this other guys £110.

The Dazzler is right.  If you have two horses in a race that are 2/1 and 5/1.  Without any extra research I can assume the 2/1 horse is more likely to be first, but not only that I can see the 2/1 horse is more likely to be 2nd.  And getting the horses that are more likely to be 2nd is where you get the value from.  

So if I have 5 minutes, I can check that the 2/1 price is close to the Betfair price and close to the best price.  If that checks out then I can assume I am not going to lose much value from the bet and that I can make about 10% or £2.50 a bet.  Not only that but because the Betfair market is close to perfect I can assume that backing the 2/1 is going to be the best option way more of the time than the 5/1 chance and conclude I don't add much by doing "research".  

It is always the case that shorter is always better, in the Coronation Cup the other week, I was fairly certain that Dunedin was more likely to be 2nd than first, but that was only because the favourite was do short.

Where I could add some value it is when one horse is 2/1 and another 5/2.  Given 15 minutes or so I could probably come to a better conclusion on which was best. But then we get to Dazzler's other point if I do all this research I may be able to get 12% or maybe even 14%.  It is important to get the 10% or £2.50, and I can do that easily and quickly. The extra 2% or so is te consuming and probably only makes me 50p or so if I was any good at it.  

There is another thing, people assume they are way more knowledgeable than they really are, so after all this extra time working out how to scrape this extra 50p, it may well be the case that I am more likely to lose 50p than gain it.

So yes you could probably improve on this, but it really isn't worth the effort.  

[nirvana]

Doobs is doing it in a mathematical way. It is + EV. Demonstrably.
Yes, you can pore through the form and try to eke out an extra 1%/2% of value with analysis of the form and whatnot. He is assuming the market is very close to correct and perhaps you can find the other 2% value if you work for it. But he's giving us an Idiots Guide.
Short price first, then long price. Wait for the long run. Even I understand that!
Other free money back bets might be more +EV but these are +EV.
Sure we'll flip £100 against that guys £120 but we also should be flipping £100 against this other guys £110.

The Dazzler is right.  If you have two horses in a race that are 2/1 and 5/1.  Without any extra research I can assume the 2/1 horse is more likely to be first, but not only that I can see the 2/1 horse is more likely to be 2nd.  And getting the horses that are more likely to be 2nd is where you get the value from.  

So if I have 5 minutes, I can check that the 2/1 price is close to the Betfair price and close to the best price.  If that checks out then I can assume I am not going to lose much value from the bet and that I can make about 10% or £2.50 a bet.  Not only that but because the Betfair market is close to perfect I can assume that backing the 2/1 is going to be the best option way more of the time than the 5/1 chance and conclude I don't add much by doing "research".  

It is always the case that shorter is always better, in the Coronation Cup the other week, I was fairly certain that Dunedin was more likely to be 2nd than first, but that was only because the favourite was do short.

Where I could add some value it is when one horse is 2/1 and another 5/2.  Given 15 minutes or so I could probably come to a better conclusion on which was best. But then we get to Dazzler's other point if I do all this research I may be able to get 12% or maybe even 14%.  It is important to get the 10% or £2.50, and I can do that easily and quickly. The extra 2% or so is te consuming and probably only makes me 50p or so if I was any good at it.  

There is another thing, people assume they are way more knowledgeable than they really are, so after all this extra time working out how to scrape this extra 50p, it may well be the case that I am more likely to lose 50p than gain it.

So yes you could probably improve on this, but it really isn't worth the effort.  

+1