Brisbane. The Sun Kissed Australian Gold Coast.
Well not quite this week as Queensland has seen heavy rain
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A trough combined with an easterly jetstream has brought cold and rain all week (no need to thank me for the weather chart tikay)
Tomorrow is expected to be brighter, but its still expected to be soft underfoot.
So what?
Well the first Lions Test should be very very close, and the prevailing conditions should make it closer still. Fewer tries, more of a forward battle and a kicking duel.
I still think Australia are very under-estimated by the bookmakers. They are underdogs for tomorrow, underdogs for the series and yet the facts don't really back that up
- While the Lions players have had a long season, and a Tour trekking across the country playing twice a week for a month, the Australians have been in camp and withdrawn from all warm up games, and will certainly be fresh with a playing style that we can only anticipate. How the Lions will play is clear to everyone, that's a tactical advantage for the Australians
- In players like Stephen Moore the hooker, James Horwill the captain, the superb Michael Hooper at open side and the wonderful Will Genia at scrum Half they have the players to compete with the Lions both up front and at breakdowns. It is widely assumed that the Lions will have forward dominance. I think the Australians will get parity in the scrums, in part because of the refereeing interpretations likely to apply and could well have the advantage at breakdowns/rucks.
Why is this? Well to me the Lions back row combination is desiged to roam the wild open spaces. Croft is a wide runner, Heaslip is better in space and Warburton is not the fetch it and fetch it quick type of Number 7 that Hooper is, or in his squad Tipuric is. The Australian player Hooper could well spoil a lot of Lions ball.
- From there, both teams will have strong defences, both teams will have strong kicking games and the Australians have a very dangerous back three, if the weather allows them to have an impact
I thought about recommending unders on the points (pivot point 43 points) but my worry with that is the metronomic Leigh Halfpenny, who is a 90% plus goalkicker and could easily score 18-21 points on his own
I thought about the Australians outright at 13/8.
I then saw that with a three point start Australia can be had at 11/10
http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/lions-tour/australia-v-lions/handicapsThis is very possibly, in fact I would say almost certainly, a game that will be won by 10 points or less. Could easily be less than a score either way.
Within that context odds against on the handicap with a penalty start is attractive
Within my research I looked at Australia's last six tests
Wales 14-12 (a) win
Italy 22-19 (a) win
England 20-14 (a) win
France 6-33 (a)
New Zealand 18-18 (h) draw
Argentina 25-19 (a) win
With the exception of the blowout in Paris (underprepared, straight off a long journey) all the games are close, and several are within three points
The pitch conditions, going back to the start, will aid this too
Recommendation£50 Australia +3 11/10 First Test v British Lions
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