Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Was going to post this before the game vs. Sussex, but waited until afterwards.

Jackson Bird Top Aussie wicket taker @ 50/1 - http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/ashes/top-australia-bowler

Wickets so far:
Siddle - 11
Pattinson - 7
Harris - 7
Starc - 5
Smith - 4
Agar - 2
Watson - 1

50/1 for a reason as he's not guaranteed to get a game, but I believe that price is a bit too long.

If Jackson Bird is picked for the 3rd test then he will almost certainly take the new ball as he did in the tour game and his first couple of tests, and it'll probably be Starc who will miss out - Surely Harris plays as Australia must win, and there's been no talk of him being rested for the next game. Think there's a good chance Harris doesn't take any further part in the series if Australia lose, and if they win do they drop Bird? Probably not. Bird almost certainly plays the remainder of the series if he gets picked for this test, barring injury.

Peter Siddle has 11 wickets already, but Bird will have the advantages of:

- Being virtually unknown in Test Cricket, and to the England batsmen (See the impact Philander had when he started playing Test Cricket)
- Taking the new ball, whereas Siddle will remain first change.
- Better FC strike rate (Probably bowls a couple of overs less than Siddle in a day though)
- Possibility of Siddle being rested if Australia are 3-0, 3-1 or 4-0 down? Maybe not as I can't remember Siddle being rested before, but there's no chance Bird comes in then gets rested.

To be top Aussie wicket taker, I think Bird needs to take around 20 wickets in the series, maybe a couple more if the Aussie spinners continue being useless. Certainly possible if he plays the remaining 3 tests, picks up one or two 5-fers in that time, and picks up a few wickets in the other innings. Was really impressed by him when he played his first two tests against Sri Lanka. It's between Starc and Bird to replace Pattinson, and the 50/1 being offered by some bookmakers atm is a little bit too long to ignore. Think it's worth a couple of quid.

Hi Andy,

Love the enthusiasm, & a nicely presented suggestion.

Have you had a bet accepted by Fred yet?

Our Cricket Guru is not keen on this, at least not until we see the Teams, but the price qualifies it as a genuine Banzai, if nothing else. Be a helluva sweat if he took a bunch at Old Trafford, too.

Let's dither for a day or two, but if you have never had a bet accepted by Fred, will will dabble for small stakes. The more contributors we have, the better for everyone.

Thanks.

Don't think I've had anything on here accepted yet, no.

can we please wait until we see the third test team?

reckon its probably 60-40 he plays over Starc, but the bet is a non-starter if he doesn't

Don't think 50-1 will shorten much, if at all, until the game starts

I will post as soon as I see the team

[TightEnd]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/teams/tottenham-hotspur/10210103/Gareth-Bale-tells-Tottenham-Hotspur-he-wants-to-hold-talks-with-Real-Madrid-over-85m-transfer.html

From a good reliable journalist

£85m if a straight transfer would be the record to land the bet hypothesised yesterday

[tikay]

Was going to post this before the game vs. Sussex, but waited until afterwards.

Jackson Bird Top Aussie wicket taker @ 50/1 - http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/ashes/top-australia-bowler

Wickets so far:
Siddle - 11
Pattinson - 7
Harris - 7
Starc - 5
Smith - 4
Agar - 2
Watson - 1

50/1 for a reason as he's not guaranteed to get a game, but I believe that price is a bit too long.

If Jackson Bird is picked for the 3rd test then he will almost certainly take the new ball as he did in the tour game and his first couple of tests, and it'll probably be Starc who will miss out - Surely Harris plays as Australia must win, and there's been no talk of him being rested for the next game. Think there's a good chance Harris doesn't take any further part in the series if Australia lose, and if they win do they drop Bird? Probably not. Bird almost certainly plays the remainder of the series if he gets picked for this test, barring injury.

Peter Siddle has 11 wickets already, but Bird will have the advantages of:

- Being virtually unknown in Test Cricket, and to the England batsmen (See the impact Philander had when he started playing Test Cricket)
- Taking the new ball, whereas Siddle will remain first change.
- Better FC strike rate (Probably bowls a couple of overs less than Siddle in a day though)
- Possibility of Siddle being rested if Australia are 3-0, 3-1 or 4-0 down? Maybe not as I can't remember Siddle being rested before, but there's no chance Bird comes in then gets rested.

To be top Aussie wicket taker, I think Bird needs to take around 20 wickets in the series, maybe a couple more if the Aussie spinners continue being useless. Certainly possible if he plays the remaining 3 tests, picks up one or two 5-fers in that time, and picks up a few wickets in the other innings. Was really impressed by him when he played his first two tests against Sri Lanka. It's between Starc and Bird to replace Pattinson, and the 50/1 being offered by some bookmakers atm is a little bit too long to ignore. Think it's worth a couple of quid.

Hi Andy,

Love the enthusiasm, & a nicely presented suggestion.

Have you had a bet accepted by Fred yet?

Our Cricket Guru is not keen on this, at least not until we see the Teams, but the price qualifies it as a genuine Banzai, if nothing else. Be a helluva sweat if he took a bunch at Old Trafford, too.

Let's dither for a day or two, but if you have never had a bet accepted by Fred, will will dabble for small stakes. The more contributors we have, the better for everyone.

Thanks.

Don't think I've had anything on here accepted yet, no.

can we please wait until we see the third test team?

reckon its probably 60-40 he plays over Starc, but the bet is a non-starter if he doesn't

Don't think 50-1 will shorten much, if at all, until the game starts

I will post as soon as I see the team

Yes, that makes sense.

But if he plays, we will have a little Banzai, as Andy has yet to have a tip accepted. Tradition Rules & all that.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £215

Outstanding Bets £2240.80

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=27

A loss of £20 yesterday with Mr Cordes finishing 7th of 8 in the 100m breaststroke final in the World Swimming Championships

Goodwood starts today, and Spirit of Law at 20-1+ would be nice! Expecting plenty of positions to be added over the next 48 hours as the offers roll in

In baseball the Rays gave a pretty strong signal that they are going for it with the trade for the reliever Jesse Crain, an all star last year, from the White Sox. In more immediate news the Rays edged out the Red Sox 2-1 last night in a game postponed last week by rain.

This takes the Rays half a game ahead in the AL East. Watching the Rays play the Red Sox is like watching your two kids playing for opposite sides in a trial match..it happened to me once a couple of years ago. You win either way, but are not too sure who to shout for!

[tikay]

Think we should just put the one bet on Goodwood tomorrow for now.  We should back Aljamaaheer in the 15.05 at Goodwood with Paddy Power and William Hill mobile.   Paddy Power are money back if 2nd.  I know we are already restricted, so can't see much harm in hitting the max button and taking as much as we can (up to £100).  We are effectively getting 7/2 on a horse that is just shy of 3/1 on Betfair with the best price guarantee on top.   If we can't get that, we should take the £25 with Hills mobile at the same price.

In all the other races the prices aren't that great at William Hill or Paddy Power, so everything looks a bit marginal maths wise.  I will wait to see if anything crops up tomorrow. 

In other news, Ladbrokes are offering money back as a free bet on match betting if Root top scores for England.  Given they are top price about the draw and beat Betfair.   There is a possibility of some rain, given it is in Manchester and it needs no excuse to rain there at the best of times.  I think we should put £50 on the draw in the next test match at Ladbrokes (9/4).  Root is about 4/1 general to top score, so we get a refund 15 to 20% of the time we get a result.  £50 is the max refund).

£25 ew Anticipated at 4/1 for the bet365 offer seems mandatory.

No longer possible I'm afraid - Bet365 now go 7/2 Anticipated. The Offer stipulates that the horse has to be 4/1 or more.

Had an early night last night & so missed this at the time, sorry.

I'll keep an eye on their prices, & if it drifts to 4/1 or better, I'll hop aboard.

[tikay]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £215

Outstanding Bets £2240.80

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=27

A loss of £20 yesterday with Mr Cordes finishing 7th of 8 in the 100m breaststroke final in the World Swimming Championships

Goodwood starts today, and Spirit of Law at 20-1+ would be nice! Expecting plenty of positions to be added over the next 48 hours as the offers roll in

In baseball the Rays gave a pretty strong signal that they are going for it with the trade for the reliever Jesse Crain, an all star last year, from the White Sox. In more immediate news the Rays edged out the Red Sox 2-1 last night in a game postponed last week by rain.

This takes the Rays half a game ahead in the AL East. Watching the Rays play the Red Sox is like watching your two kids playing for opposite sides in a trial match..it happened to me once a couple of years ago. You win either way, but are not too sure who to shout for!

What a great spot we are in with these Baseball bets. The climax of the season should be a wonderful sweat if things continue this way.

[TightEnd]

On the cricket bet above, money back if Root top scores and back the draw at 9/4....

Would have to be a lot of weather around for the draw to come into play.

Alistair Cook has been 3-1 top price in every England batsman market for every Test about 36 months. You can now get 4-1 for his next England innings

I quote from something I am writing

"England captain Alistair Cook has only scored 83 runs in four completed innings, with 50 in one of those alone. Most unlike Cook several of the dismissals have been loose drives outside the off-stump. This has been both uncharacteristic and frustrating but is encouraging as it is easily fixed (patience not to play the shot) rather than a fundamental technical flaw that takes time to iron out, very difficult in the hurly burly of an Ashes series with Test Matches in quick succession.

Cook's Test Match record is exemplary. Over 7,600 test runs including 25 hundreds at an average of over 48. He loves to bat, and bat long, and his record improved after he became captain. His price to be top scorer in England's first innings is now out to 4/1 after recent failures and this is attractive on a "mean reversion" basis. He is going to score big this series, and it is a question of when. His record tells you this. With Pattinson, the bowler who has given Cook the most trouble, out injured, this is a bonus for the 4/1 price too"


Personally Cook at 4-1 appeals more than the draw at 9-4

[Tal]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/teams/tottenham-hotspur/10210103/Gareth-Bale-tells-Tottenham-Hotspur-he-wants-to-hold-talks-with-Real-Madrid-over-85m-transfer.html

From a good reliable journalist

£85m if a straight transfer would be the record to land the bet hypothesised yesterday

Real still haven't actually made an offer (have to love Perez and his ability to unsettle players without actually apparently breaking any rules).

What worries me about this bet (OK Worries isn't the right word) is that Levy has seen this dance before with Modric and held out for a season. He's a dangerous man to bet against when he is holding the ace.

That said, £90m or whatever is a lot of money and it's tough to see spurs turning that kind of money down. The more I think about it, the more I think Levy will want players in part exchange, as we can't attract the big names we'd want.

No question Bale's head has been turned and it is annoying, but that is football.

[TightEnd]

Lots of SkyBet price boosts ahead of the FL season (not for thread, but for thread users.....)

Barnsley 13/2 top half, Brighton 18/1 amongst them.....

http://www.skybet.com/football/sky-bet-championship/event/15456944?aff_id=7945&dcmp=snt-bet-championshippb-tw

[tikay]

Think we should just put the one bet on Goodwood tomorrow for now.  We should back Aljamaaheer in the 15.05 at Goodwood with Paddy Power and William Hill mobile.   Paddy Power are money back if 2nd.  I know we are already restricted, so can't see much harm in hitting the max button and taking as much as we can (up to £100).  We are effectively getting 7/2 on a horse that is just shy of 3/1 on Betfair with the best price guarantee on top.   If we can't get that, we should take the £25 with Hills mobile at the same price.
In all the other races the prices aren't that great at William Hill or Paddy Power, so everything looks a bit marginal maths wise.  I will wait to see if anything crops up tomorrow.  

In other news, Ladbrokes are offering money back as a free bet on match betting if Root top scores for England.  Given they are top price about the draw and beat Betfair.   There is a possibility of some rain, given it is in Manchester and it needs no excuse to rain there at the best of times.  I think we should put £50 on the draw in the next test match at Ladbrokes (9/4).  Root is about 4/1 general to top score, so we get a refund 15 to 20% of the time we get a result.  £50 is the max refund).

Thanks Doobs.

We got £35 on at 3/1 Aljamaaheer, 3.05 Goodwood, with Paddy Power, MONEY BACK IF 2nd

I have NOT taken the Wm Hill Mobile offer, as they are only (currently) 5/2.

Is that all correct?

ON

GOODWOOD 15:05 LENNOX STAKES 7f
30-07-2013 15:05
Win or E/W
Aljamaaheer @ 3/1 (GP)
 

Your Bets





Win
Single: Aljamaaheer @ 3/1
1 line at £35.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £35.00
 Potential returns: £140.00
No: O/23146337/0000329
 

Total stake: £35.00
 Free bets voucher: £0.00
 Total Cost: £35.00

[Marky147]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £215

Outstanding Bets £2240.80

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=27

A loss of £20 yesterday with Mr Cordes finishing 7th of 8 in the 100m breaststroke final in the World Swimming Championships

Goodwood starts today, and Spirit of Law at 20-1+ would be nice! Expecting plenty of positions to be added over the next 48 hours as the offers roll in

In baseball the Rays gave a pretty strong signal that they are going for it with the trade for the reliever Jesse Crain, an all star last year, from the White Sox. In more immediate news the Rays edged out the Red Sox 2-1 last night in a game postponed last week by rain.

This takes the Rays half a game ahead in the AL East. Watching the Rays play the Red Sox is like watching your two kids playing for opposite sides in a trial match..it happened to me once a couple of years ago. You win either way, but are not too sure who to shout for!

I definitely know which one I'm shouting for

[horseplayer]

The goodwood ground will be verging on heavy if this carries on much more

[tikay]

The goodwood ground will be verging on heavy if this carries on much more

In London, 40 miles north of Gooders, it is tipping down, & it looks like it is set for the day.

Grandad Angell always said "rain before 7, stop by 11". It started at 8am.......

[BigAdz]

Think we should just put the one bet on Goodwood tomorrow for now.  We should back Aljamaaheer in the 15.05 at Goodwood with Paddy Power and William Hill mobile.   Paddy Power are money back if 2nd.  I know we are already restricted, so can't see much harm in hitting the max button and taking as much as we can (up to £100).  We are effectively getting 7/2 on a horse that is just shy of 3/1 on Betfair with the best price guarantee on top.   If we can't get that, we should take the £25 with Hills mobile at the same price.
In all the other races the prices aren't that great at William Hill or Paddy Power, so everything looks a bit marginal maths wise.  I will wait to see if anything crops up tomorrow.  

In other news, Ladbrokes are offering money back as a free bet on match betting if Root top scores for England.  Given they are top price about the draw and beat Betfair.   There is a possibility of some rain, given it is in Manchester and it needs no excuse to rain there at the best of times.  I think we should put £50 on the draw in the next test match at Ladbrokes (9/4).  Root is about 4/1 general to top score, so we get a refund 15 to 20% of the time we get a result.  £50 is the max refund).

Thanks Doobs.

We got £35 on at 3/1 Aljamaaheer, 3.05 Goodwood, with Paddy Power, MONEY BACK IF 2nd

I have NOT taken the Wm Hill Mobile offer, as they are only (currently) 5/2.

Is that all correct?

ON

GOODWOOD 15:05 LENNOX STAKES 7f
30-07-2013 15:05
Win or E/W
Aljamaaheer @ 3/1 (GP)
 

Your Bets





Win
Single: Aljamaaheer @ 3/1
1 line at £35.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £35.00
 Potential returns: £140.00
No: O/23146337/0000329
 

Total stake: £35.00
 Free bets voucher: £0.00
 Total Cost: £35.00

It feels like the reverse of backing the second fav in a free roll vs the fav on WH. So I would humbly suggest this is better as you got the price.

Bound to be wrong though

[superwomble]

I don’t know anything about cricket so this isn’t a tip, just pointing out what seems to be a bit of a price discrepancy for others to discuss perhaps.

Warwickshire v Somerset, T20 today. Fred Coleman for top Warwickshire batsman is 33/1 at BetFred, yet the next best is Paddy with 25/1, most others are between 8/1 – 12/1, and Coral/Vic go 7/1.

33/1 seems very high compared to the others?