Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Ran well enough

Yes, ended up 4th, and we are on EW at a big price, with 4 places paid.

Well done!

Profit of £89.90 on the race

very well done

Ooh, lovely.

[Doobs]

Think we should just put the one bet on Goodwood tomorrow for now.  We should back Aljamaaheer in the 15.05 at Goodwood with Paddy Power and William Hill mobile.   Paddy Power are money back if 2nd.  I know we are already restricted, so can't see much harm in hitting the max button and taking as much as we can (up to £100).  We are effectively getting 7/2 on a horse that is just shy of 3/1 on Betfair with the best price guarantee on top.   If we can't get that, we should take the £25 with Hills mobile at the same price.

In all the other races the prices aren't that great at William Hill or Paddy Power, so everything looks a bit marginal maths wise.  I will wait to see if anything crops up tomorrow. 

In other news, Ladbrokes are offering money back as a free bet on match betting if Root top scores for England.  Given they are top price about the draw and beat Betfair.   There is a possibility of some rain, given it is in Manchester and it needs no excuse to rain there at the best of times.  I think we should put £50 on the draw in the next test match at Ladbrokes (9/4).  Root is about 4/1 general to top score, so we get a refund 15 to 20% of the time we get a result.  £50 is the max refund).

£25 ew Anticipated at 4/1 for the bet365 offer seems mandatory.

I think we missed this for Camel.  It won first time out on soft going.  You can still get 100/30 Paddy Power with the money back which is the equvalent of over 4/1 anyway.  Not sure I'd still do the each way, as we are sat on 8 runners, and we could easily lose another.  Would appreciate thoughts on that part.

5/6 to place is still marginal value.

Although money back for coming second clouds the issue.

I'll leave it to the maths gurus

bet365 do a free bet if you win at 4/1+, not money back for 2nd.  So if you go bet365, it is likely you get no additional value, but money back for 2nd is a definite addition.  Hence Paddy Power is best at the same price (100/30).  

[TightEnd]

http://www1.skysports.com/cricket/news/article/8848142/australia-must-pick-warner

you'd think so, and thread hopes so

[Doobs]

Casper also first time out this season and for a new trainer. Its defo the interesting horse in the race.

Now badbeat and Adz have backed him up, think we should get some of that 12/1 at bet365 for the thread?

Win only, yes?

I don't think it matters much as he is around 3/1 the place on Betfair.  Depends how nitty you are feeling today!

[tikay]

Today's Tal Asks What Am I Missing Question.

Caspar Netscher should like the soggy ground, in the 3.05 shouldn't he? Favourite won't. CN won the German 2.000 Guineas (put the German full stop in for Tikay, as I know he likes his commas).

12/1 across the board atm.

So...

What am I missing?

Spite bet incoming.

Please note, 2,000 Guineas, not 2000 or even 2.000.

Unforch, Bet365 restricted us to £4.17, but we are on for that, at 12/1. Rule 4 expected due to a probable withdrawal.

Confirmation to follow later, but we have £4.17 @ 12/1, Bet 365, Casper Natscher, 3.05 Gooders.

ON

[Doobs]

Coral have pushed Chelski out to 3/1 as a price boost. At the same time that nice man Dale Tempest is on SSN telling us Chelski are now the 9/4 faves with SlyBet

Don't miss this either, they are best 5/2 elsewhere.

[tikay]

Think we should just put the one bet on Goodwood tomorrow for now.  We should back Aljamaaheer in the 15.05 at Goodwood with Paddy Power and William Hill mobile.   Paddy Power are money back if 2nd.  I know we are already restricted, so can't see much harm in hitting the max button and taking as much as we can (up to £100).  We are effectively getting 7/2 on a horse that is just shy of 3/1 on Betfair with the best price guarantee on top.   If we can't get that, we should take the £25 with Hills mobile at the same price.

In all the other races the prices aren't that great at William Hill or Paddy Power, so everything looks a bit marginal maths wise.  I will wait to see if anything crops up tomorrow. 

In other news, Ladbrokes are offering money back as a free bet on match betting if Root top scores for England.  Given they are top price about the draw and beat Betfair.   There is a possibility of some rain, given it is in Manchester and it needs no excuse to rain there at the best of times.  I think we should put £50 on the draw in the next test match at Ladbrokes (9/4).  Root is about 4/1 general to top score, so we get a refund 15 to 20% of the time we get a result.  £50 is the max refund).

£25 ew Anticipated at 4/1 for the bet365 offer seems mandatory.

I think we missed this for Camel.  It won first time out on soft going.  You can still get 100/30 Paddy Power with the money back which is the equvalent of over 4/1 anyway.  Not sure I'd still do the each way, as we are sat on 8 runners, and we could easily lose another.  Would appreciate thoughts on that part.

5/6 to place is still marginal value.

Although money back for coming second clouds the issue.

I'll leave it to the maths gurus

bet365 do a free bet if you win at 4/1+, not money back for 2nd.  So if you go bet365, it is likely you get no additional value, but money back for 2nd is a definite addition.  Hence Paddy Power is best at the same price (100/30).  

We are on, £25 @ 0/30 with Messrs Paddy Power, Anticipated, MONEY BACK IF 2nd

ON


GOODWOOD 14:30 MOLECOMB STAKES 5f Money-Back Special
 30-07-2013 14:30
 Win or E/W
Anticipated @ 10/3 (GP)
 
 
Your Bets

 

 Win 
 Single: Anticipated @ 10/3
 1 line at £25.00 per line
 Total stake for this bet: £25.00
 Potential returns: £108.33
 No: O/23146337/0000330
 
 
Total stake: £25.00
 Free bets voucher: £0.00
 Total Cost: £25.00

[TightEnd]

Just for the record, not a tip

The Ladbrokes Bale bet at over £80m has been cut from 3-1 to 13-8 since yesterday

Market up again

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/gareth-bale/transfer-fee

[TightEnd]

Trainer Roger Varian withdraws favourite Aljamaaheer from the 3.05 Goodwood Lennox Stakes because the ground is too soft.

[maldini32]

Thoughts on Defoe @ top spurs goalscorer with Bale's impending departure?

[tikay]

i hate this thread

officially it sucks i just cant keep up with it 5 pages can go up in a cpl of hours and i miss the tips

no really great thread is there any stats on how you are doing since the thread started?

have many bookies restricted your bets?

This is actually a decent point.

I guess we have all missed decent bets amongst all the banter.

How about a Tips for Tikay Lite?

With just bets placed.

Regards

Camel

An interesting point, & one which we will consider.

One problem is Admin, or time - it means quite a lot of extra work for the Bet-Placer, as it has to be Posted twice, on separate threads. Not complaining, as I & others derive great benefit, but time is often a problem, especially when I am busy elsewhere.

It also raises an interesting point, as someone asked on Fred last week for a "recap" of what bets we had on a particular market. Not sure that is right & proper, Fred is a free resource of terrific value bets provided by the Fred contributors, & in gambling, as in life, I think a little effort in return for what (so far) is a guaranteed profit over time is not unreasonable. Just listing the bets we place takes them out of context, completely, too. I know it can be a pain to scroll through several pages, but no pain, no gain. We are victims of the thread's success, fair to say.

Will deffo think it over, though.

[tikay]

Think we should just put the one bet on Goodwood tomorrow for now.  We should back Aljamaaheer in the 15.05 at Goodwood with Paddy Power and William Hill mobile.   Paddy Power are money back if 2nd.  I know we are already restricted, so can't see much harm in hitting the max button and taking as much as we can (up to £100).  We are effectively getting 7/2 on a horse that is just shy of 3/1 on Betfair with the best price guarantee on top.   If we can't get that, we should take the £25 with Hills mobile at the same price.

In all the other races the prices aren't that great at William Hill or Paddy Power, so everything looks a bit marginal maths wise.  I will wait to see if anything crops up tomorrow. 

In other news, Ladbrokes are offering money back as a free bet on match betting if Root top scores for England.  Given they are top price about the draw and beat Betfair.   There is a possibility of some rain, given it is in Manchester and it needs no excuse to rain there at the best of times.  I think we should put £50 on the draw in the next test match at Ladbrokes (9/4).  Root is about 4/1 general to top score, so we get a refund 15 to 20% of the time we get a result.  £50 is the max refund).

£25 ew Anticipated at 4/1 for the bet365 offer seems mandatory.

I think we missed this for Camel.  It won first time out on soft going.  You can still get 100/30 Paddy Power with the money back which is the equvalent of over 4/1 anyway.  Not sure I'd still do the each way, as we are sat on 8 runners, and we could easily lose another.  Would appreciate thoughts on that part.

5/6 to place is still marginal value.

Although money back for coming second clouds the issue.

I'll leave it to the maths gurus

bet365 do a free bet if you win at 4/1+, not money back for 2nd.  So if you go bet365, it is likely you get no additional value, but money back for 2nd is a definite addition.  Hence Paddy Power is best at the same price (100/30).  

We are on, £25 @ 0/30 with Messrs Paddy Power, Anticipated, MONEY BACK IF 2nd

ON


GOODWOOD 14:30 MOLECOMB STAKES 5f Money-Back Special
 30-07-2013 14:30
 Win or E/W
Anticipated @ 10/3 (GP)
 
 
Your Bets

 

 Win 
 Single: Anticipated @ 10/3
 1 line at £25.00 per line
 Total stake for this bet: £25.00
 Potential returns: £108.33
 No: O/23146337/0000330
 
 
Total stake: £25.00
 Free bets voucher: £0.00
 Total Cost: £25.00

Money back, I think.

[Doobs]

Think we should just put the one bet on Goodwood tomorrow for now.  We should back Aljamaaheer in the 15.05 at Goodwood with Paddy Power and William Hill mobile.   Paddy Power are money back if 2nd.  I know we are already restricted, so can't see much harm in hitting the max button and taking as much as we can (up to £100).  We are effectively getting 7/2 on a horse that is just shy of 3/1 on Betfair with the best price guarantee on top.   If we can't get that, we should take the £25 with Hills mobile at the same price.

In all the other races the prices aren't that great at William Hill or Paddy Power, so everything looks a bit marginal maths wise.  I will wait to see if anything crops up tomorrow. 

In other news, Ladbrokes are offering money back as a free bet on match betting if Root top scores for England.  Given they are top price about the draw and beat Betfair.   There is a possibility of some rain, given it is in Manchester and it needs no excuse to rain there at the best of times.  I think we should put £50 on the draw in the next test match at Ladbrokes (9/4).  Root is about 4/1 general to top score, so we get a refund 15 to 20% of the time we get a result.  £50 is the max refund).

£25 ew Anticipated at 4/1 for the bet365 offer seems mandatory.

I think we missed this for Camel.  It won first time out on soft going.  You can still get 100/30 Paddy Power with the money back which is the equvalent of over 4/1 anyway.  Not sure I'd still do the each way, as we are sat on 8 runners, and we could easily lose another.  Would appreciate thoughts on that part.

5/6 to place is still marginal value.

Although money back for coming second clouds the issue.

I'll leave it to the maths gurus

bet365 do a free bet if you win at 4/1+, not money back for 2nd.  So if you go bet365, it is likely you get no additional value, but money back for 2nd is a definite addition.  Hence Paddy Power is best at the same price (100/30).  

We are on, £25 @ 0/30 with Messrs Paddy Power, Anticipated, MONEY BACK IF 2nd

ON


GOODWOOD 14:30 MOLECOMB STAKES 5f Money-Back Special
 30-07-2013 14:30
 Win or E/W
Anticipated @ 10/3 (GP)
 
 
Your Bets

 

 Win 
 Single: Anticipated @ 10/3
 1 line at £25.00 per line
 Total stake for this bet: £25.00
 Potential returns: £108.33
 No: O/23146337/0000330
 
 
Total stake: £25.00
 Free bets voucher: £0.00
 Total Cost: £25.00

Money back, I think.

Looked unlucky after that start.  No harm done. 

[TightEnd]

money back or a free bet?

if it is a free bet, expiry is?

spreadsheet johnny, reporting for duty

[tikay]

money back or a free bet?

if it is a free bet, expiry is?

spreadsheet johnny, reporting for duty

Money back, cash, unless I misunderstand, and what are the chances of that?