Tips for Tikay

[Longy]

I am going to finals day tomorrow as well, sigh at the forecast.

[BigAdz]

Solheim cup.

Top American.

Stacy Lewis is favourite. Good golfer terrible record. Tough first game. 1-3-0
Paula Creamer. Good golfer. Great record. 11-3-5
Cristie kerr. Not as good but good enough. Poorish Record. 11-12-3
Angela Stanford. Decent. Terrible record. 3-7-3
Morgan Pressel. Good golfer. Terrific record. 7-2-2

A few more also rans who in all probability won't be 5 match players.

Take out Stanford whose record is awful. Lewis could do anything. Kerr will hopefully only do ok if she splits from Creamer. Creamer is probably most likely to win this if our pick doesn't.

Pressel should get 5 games unless all players get a rest so she'll never be at a disadvantage. She does have an interesting 1st game v Matthew with both having a rookie to play with. However 9/1 each way 1/4 top 3 is a very good price in my mind. Creamer is 9/2 and there is no way Pressel is twice the price.

Pressel each way 9/1 top American.

Sandy

Logic behind the bet is good, but not so sure I would write Stacey Lewis so easily on the back of such a small sample size of Solheim Cup experience, IMO. GL

 

Sandy

Nice to see you take discussion well Henrik.......

[horseplayer]

71 - Jesus Navas created more chances from open play than any other player in La Liga in 2012/13. Cross.

just for a bit of good karma towards one of the season long bets

[henrik777]

Solheim cup.

Top American.

Stacy Lewis is favourite. Good golfer terrible record. Tough first game. 1-3-0
Paula Creamer. Good golfer. Great record. 11-3-5
Cristie kerr. Not as good but good enough. Poorish Record. 11-12-3
Angela Stanford. Decent. Terrible record. 3-7-3
Morgan Pressel. Good golfer. Terrific record. 7-2-2

A few more also rans who in all probability won't be 5 match players.

Take out Stanford whose record is awful. Lewis could do anything. Kerr will hopefully only do ok if she splits from Creamer. Creamer is probably most likely to win this if our pick doesn't.

Pressel should get 5 games unless all players get a rest so she'll never be at a disadvantage. She does have an interesting 1st game v Matthew with both having a rookie to play with. However 9/1 each way 1/4 top 3 is a very good price in my mind. Creamer is 9/2 and there is no way Pressel is twice the price.

Pressel each way 9/1 top American.

Sandy

Logic behind the bet is good, but not so sure I would write Stacey Lewis so easily on the back of such a small sample size of Solheim Cup experience, IMO. GL

 

Sandy

Nice to see you take discussion well Henrik.......

Just pointing out what it seemed you missed.

Sandy

[TightEnd]

Just an explanation as to why the cricket quotes are too low

- In the T20 powerplay all bar two of the fielders have to be inside the 40m circle

- With a hard ball and pace on the ball, usually, if the hitters at the top of the order get through the inner ring it goes for 4. In part this is why some teams like to open with a spinner and get a cheap over in, with no pace on the ball

The fours prices particularly are too low for these guys, accepting that any batsman can get a good ball early but the chances are that more than two of these four do bat at least a few overs

- tactically the teams put big hitters early and leave a finisher to the end, putting their nudgers and nurdlers (McKenzie for Hants, Wilson for Surrey etc) in the middle order because after six overs the field only has to have 5 inside the 40m, so the incidence of fours falls and you see more singles and twos because boundary riders arepalced

If these four bat for six overs, all will score more than 2.5 fours

The sixes bets are trickier because you can't factor in the position of the pitch on the square, or whether the boundaries are large or small at this stage.

What you do have going for you is that all four are big hitters


Weather is an issue, but if it is the case that <20 overs games void the bets, I think I would go with this

If I had to choose a few from the field, I would say Carberry and Davies and/or Roy fours as the best bets

[superwomble]

71 - Jesus Navas created more chances from open play than any other player in La Liga in 2012/13. Cross.

just for a bit of good karma towards one of the season long bets

I like the Navas bet, am on it myself and was pleased Fred got on before PP cut the price.

Think Fred should also get on Cazorla e/w at 20/1 with Boyles too.

[Tal]

71 - Jesus Navas created more chances from open play than any other player in La Liga in 2012/13. Cross.

just for a bit of good karma towards one of the season long bets

I like the Navas bet, am on it myself and was pleased Fred got on before PP cut the price.

Think Fred should also get on Cazorla e/w at 20/1 with Boyles too.

Been enough gooner nonsense as it is, thank you.

[ripple11]

Just an explanation as to why the cricket quotes are too low

- In the T20 powerplay all bar two of the fielders have to be inside the 40m circle

- With a hard ball and pace on the ball, usually, if the hitters at the top of the order get through the inner ring it goes for 4. In part this is why some teams like to open with a spinner and get a cheap over in, with no pace on the ball

The fours prices particularly are too low for these guys, accepting that any batsman can get a good ball early but the chances are that more than two of these four do bat at least a few overs

- tactically the teams put big hitters early and leave a finisher to the end, putting their nudgers and nurdlers (McKenzie for Hants, Wilson for Surrey etc) in the middle order because after six overs the field only has to have 5 inside the 40m, so the incidence of fours falls and you see more singles and twos because boundary riders arepalced

If these four bat for six overs, all will score more than 2.5 fours

The sixes bets are trickier because you can't factor in the position of the pitch on the square, or whether the boundaries are large or small at this stage.What you do have going for you is that all four are big hitters


Weather is an issue, but if it is the case that <20 overs games void the bets, I think I would go with this

If I had to choose a few from the field, I would say Carberry and Davies and/or Roy fours as the best bets

Do let us know when you get there for the 7am pitch report 

Jealous of you and longy....enjoy guys!

[TightEnd]

horseplayer and I have been dicussing the England U19 Cricket today

Starts at 2pm at Derby, Live on SSA

Same pitch as last night's televised YB40 Derbys v Durham

It is a worn pitch with huge amounts of turn, and overhead conditions also favour seamers

Pakistan have been backed into 4/9 already because of the conditions suiting their spinners, partly because in the games in the series so far they are clearly the strongest team (its a tri-series with bangladesh)

No fifty in the match is generously priced on this old pitch

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/england-u19-v-pakistan-u19/odi-match/england-u19-v-pakistan-u19/fifty-in-match

9/2


horseplayer could you find any other market on o/c to play this very worn pitch?

[biggle57]

Likely DRFC line up.

Ross Turnbull - Signed 1 day before the first league game.

Paul Quinn - On the fringes throughout last season, forced in to the first team due to injuries/players leaving.
Bongani Khumalo - Joined very late in pre season on loan from Spurs.
Rob Jones ©
James Husband  19 year old, very little first team experience, youth team player thrown in due to lack of options/injuries.

David Cotterill
Richie Wellens - Again signed a short term deal the day before the season started having being released by Leicester.
Dean Furman - Played on Tuesday night for SA at home v Nigeria. Will almost certainly have to start, no other options.
Mark Duffy - Unproven at this level, big step up having signed from Scunthorpe late on in pre season.

James Coppinger
Theo Robinson - Signed yesterday afternoon from Derby, in line to start tonight.

Bench - Not much !

---------

I think if this game was played 100,000 times, Blackburn would win more than 500,000 times. That makes 7/4 a really good price, right?

Reccy punter logic

Recommend some money on Blackburn to win @ Doncaster tonight @ 7/4 ! (365/totesport/berfred)  

Wellens has been training with the squad all summer, Husband is extremely well regarded at the club. Quinn has made plenty of appearances in the SPL/Championship before so not sure about inexperienced. However, you got in early enough to beat the price. Wouldn't read much into the home record from last season either.

Didn't say Quinn was inexperienced :/

46 games over 3+ seasons at this level before being released by Cardiff isn't much though.

SPL yes, different league though.

Wouldn't have been a starter until Spurr left & Mccoombe got injured the week before the season. More disruption.

Wellens pre season amounted to 45 minutes v Bradford in the final friendly 6 days before the season started.

Wont even be match fit today.

Needs must

While some of your points are well reasoned, cant agree too much with a few of them: -

Firstly Turnbull - it was good to see a keeper with presence, and will be a big asset this season

Defence - Quinn would have played all season except for getting injured, and Husband made quite a few appearances and is a good player in the making

Midfield - Wellens was sheer class against Blackpool, cant see Furman starting after playing in SA and there are other options

Attack - No way will Brown not start

Although we lost against Blackpool, it was a harsh defeat after a decent performance. Will admit that goals will be a big problem for Donny, but expect it to be a decent game. Pressure is sure to be on Blackburn more than Donny after 1 point from 2 games, so in my opinion the bookies have this game priced about right

Time will tell

[Tal]

horseplayer and I have been discussing the England U19 Cricket today

Hard not to love this thread at the best of times, but that's definitely smile-worthy

[tikay]

71 - Jesus Navas created more chances from open play than any other player in La Liga in 2012/13. Cross.

just for a bit of good karma towards one of the season long bets

I have just done a Summary of our Long Term Football bets, I'll Post it shortly, will be an easy reference guide to who we want to do what. So easy to forget otherwise, & it'll help the sweats, & maybe help Tighty with his Reports, too. 

[Tal]

I think if we asked a hundred Fred followers, at least 500 would agree

[tikay]

I think if we asked a hundred Fred followers, at least 500 would agree

7/4 shot then.

[tikay]

horseplayer and I have been dicussing the England U19 Cricket today

Starts at 2pm at Derby, Live on SSA

Same pitch as last night's televised YB40 Derbys v Durham

It is a worn pitch with huge amounts of turn, and overhead conditions also favour seamers

Pakistan have been backed into 4/9 already because of the conditions suiting their spinners, partly because in the games in the series so far they are clearly the strongest team (its a tri-series with bangladesh)

No fifty in the match is generously priced on this old pitch

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/england-u19-v-pakistan-u19/odi-match/england-u19-v-pakistan-u19/fifty-in-match

9/2


horseplayer could you find any other market on o/c to play this very worn pitch?

Sadly, we are restricted to £1.10, but we did it anyway.

Under 19 Cricket, Pakistan v England, NO Fifty to be scored, £1.10 @ 9/2, Bet365.

ON


No 



England U19 vs Pakistan U19 - One Day Match
A Fifty to be scored in the match
 


16/08/2013
 
9/2

To Run
 
Stake 1.11
 
To Return 6.10