Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

The Chiefs bet. This seems to me like a good example of where Fred can beat a win/lose/draw market. I think it has become a well-established Fredism that the bookies are quite good at the Outright markets and it occurs to me that betting on those is a slow and steady way to the poor house.

Kansas City spent last season being...well...you know the Harlem Globetrotters? Well just imagine how rubbish they'd be at American football. The 49ers we know about as being one of the better sides around. The bookies have only to run a few simulations and price it up at 110 for Billy Bob to be your uncle.

But redarmi pops up like a cheeky info imp to deliver a bit of extra intel, such that we can get value from a seemingly valueless market.

These are the nuances that distinguish the entirely logical but secretly -EV from the reason a tiny fraction of punters make money.

Cue bok. I will employ the Sample Size Defence if necessary

An early morning squeeze would appear to be in order for this one. Starts 1am (UK)

[tikay]

Hi all, suggest AC Milan at 100-1 is worth 10 quid e\w for champions league with skybet. price strikes me as huge considering juve are typically 18-1 and Milan are considered 2nd favs to win serie a. Fred already backed napoli at66-1 for cl, so 100-1 ew Milan makes perfect sense as a back.

Hi spudy, hope you are in good heart.

An Italian team to win CL? Jeez, that is real retro stuff! It is all Germany & Spain now, no? Even so, 100/1 is tempting.

Think I need some advice from others before we get on board that one. Am really not sure if that is 100/1 for a 200/1 shot, or 100/1 for a 66/1 shot.

[tikay]

Few anytimes for 2moro

Junior Hoilett 7/2  - Scored and also had 6 shots on goal last week. Class above in this league tbh. Anyone that has 6 shots on goal previous week deserves a chance again at 7/2.

Franck Moussa  9/2 - vs Carlisle. Game looks like it should have plenty of goals. Coventry scored 7 and conceded 7 in 2 games. Carlisle conceded 9 in 2 games. Moussa has scored 2 in 3 games so far this season and 7 of his last 8 goals have came away from home too as he gets forward a load on the counter attack.



Score on each?

Thank you, we need to see more of you here.

We got Hoilett OK @ 7/2, but could not get better than 100/30 (at the time) for Moussa, as I can't bet with SkyBet, & I never saw the Corals quote of 7/2. (Was busy pokering on several tables, multi-tasking fail). Anyway, despite it being really wrong to take 0/30 for a 9/2 suggestion.....I did. I regret it already, but too late now. The volume of stuff today has been a bit overwhelming, what with all the Season Football bets needing to be sorted.

We have £20 @ 7/2, Ladbrokes, Junior Hoilett to score ANYTIME, QPR v Ispwich, & £20 @ 100/30, WmHill, Franck Moussa to score ANYTIME, Carlisle v Coventry.

ON

16 Aug 13 / 23:50

Carlisle v Coventry  –  Anytime Goalscorer

Franck Moussa @ 10/3

–

£20.00

O/0457483/0000525/F

 0000396 Single (To win) 1 £20.00  QPR v Ipswich To score at any time  Junior Hoilett  7/2

[biggle57]

Review of game tonight: -

Keeper - Turnbull (hardly troubled)

Defence - Kept Rhodes and co down to 1/2 chances

Midfield - This is for you tighty because Wellens was pure class again all night

Attack - Caused problems all night


Thoroughly deserved win Blackburn lot of possession without troubling keeper

[aaron1867]

William Hill doing their usual offer on Channel 4 racing of money back if second if Bering on tablet or mobile, so I'm posting in Doobs style.

Newmarket

2.20 - Medici Time - currently 8/1 and I think this is decent and could definitely be around around when they are coming home. I'm happy with 8's here and suggest £10.

3.25 - Lyn Valley - speaks for itself and will be a short price, suggest £25.

Newbury

2,05 - somewhat - short favourite, should be winning the race in fashion, suggest £25. 11/10.

2.40 - I'm your man - definitely suited by conditions and record over distance is better than the shorter prices in market. Suggesting £10 win, not too sure about price at currently 5-1

3.55 - soft falling rain - shortish favourite, likely to to be there or not far away. £25 on at 13/8.

PS - c4 are covering Newbury, ripon and Newmarket according to the net.

[tikay]

William Hill doing their usual offer on Channel 4 racing of money back if second if Bering on tablet or mobile, so I'm posting in Doobs style.

Newmarket

2.20 - Medici Time - currently 8/1 and I think this is decent and could definitely be around around when they are coming home. I'm happy with 8's here and suggest £10.

3.25 - Lyn Valley - speaks for itself and will be a short price, suggest £25.

Newbury

2,05 - somewhat - short favourite, should be winning the race in fashion, suggest £25. 11/10.

2.40 - I'm your man - definitely suited by conditions and record over distance is better than the shorter prices in market. Suggesting £10 win, not too sure about price at currently 5-1

3.55 - soft falling rain - shortish favourite, likely to to be there or not far away. £25 on at 13/8.

PS - c4 are covering Newbury, ripon and Newmarket according to the net.

Top work Aaron, thanks.

We need Offers Officer Doobs, to cast his eye on this, as I THINK the intricate maths of "Money Back if 2nd" works best if we back a short priced horse for the Maximum pemitted £25, rather than longer priced jobbies for a tenner. Also, are they all "value" bets, & are we beating the Market?

So lets look at these again in the morning, when Doobs has made a Ruling.

[ChipRich]

Few anytimes for 2moro

Junior Hoilett 7/2  - Scored and also had 6 shots on goal last week. Class above in this league tbh. Anyone that has 6 shots on goal previous week deserves a chance again at 7/2.

Franck Moussa  9/2 - vs Carlisle. Game looks like it should have plenty of goals. Coventry scored 7 and conceded 7 in 2 games. Carlisle conceded 9 in 2 games. Moussa has scored 2 in 3 games so far this season and 7 of his last 8 goals have came away from home too as he gets forward a load on the counter attack.



Score on each?

Thank you, we need to see more of you here.

We got Hoilett OK @ 7/2, but could not get better than 100/30 (at the time) for Moussa, as I can't bet with SkyBet, & I never saw the Corals quote of 7/2. (Was busy pokering on several tables, multi-tasking fail). Anyway, despite it being really wrong to take 0/30 for a 9/2 suggestion.....I did. I regret it already, but too late now. The volume of stuff today has been a bit overwhelming, what with all the Season Football bets needing to be sorted.

We have £20 @ 7/2, Ladbrokes, Junior Hoilett to score ANYTIME, QPR v Ispwich, & £20 @ 100/30, WmHill, Franck Moussa to score ANYTIME, Carlisle v Coventry.

ON

16 Aug 13 / 23:50

Carlisle v Coventry  –  Anytime Goalscorer

Franck Moussa @ 10/3

–

£20.00

O/0457483/0000525/F

 0000396 Single (To win) 1 £20.00  QPR v Ipswich To score at any time  Junior Hoilett  7/2

Cheers. Not been around a good while, life stuff and job etc got in the way really. Back in time for the footy season though!

Shame about the Moussa price, but gl us. Couldn't put anyone off the brace at 33s either btw.

[tikay]

REMINDER


We have 2 x £25 Free Bets from Ladbrokes looking for a good home.

[aaron1867]

If you are generally only interested in the offer market on Hills for shorties, then maybe the free bets would be handy on those I mentioned at £10 stakes.

[tikay]

If you are generally only interested in the offer market on Hills for shorties, then maybe the free bets would be handy on those I mentioned at £10 stakes.

Yes, quite possibly, & we may well use them for that, but I'm keen to make sure we are eking out edges, such as we get with the "Offers
System" that Doobs has developed, & value, rather than just punting horses, if you get my drift.

Anyway, enough for tonight, we must have had 25 bets today, we gotta slow down a bit. We need some of these bets to start coming in now.

Should be a fun weekend though.

[LeKnave]

Good read on Kansas red.  Kaeps already done after attempting 2 passes.

[Ant040689]

Blackburn had one shot on target, from 15 attempts.

Fun division, the Championship. Not much goes according to punters plans!

Sorry?

[redarmi]

Probably not one for Fred but Jamaica seem a big price at 1/4 to win the mens 4x100m relay with SkyBet and Boyles.  Of course they can drop the baton or have a disastrous changeover but seems you are simply betting against that to me.  They had 4 of the top 5 in the mens 100m final and the USA have been massively weakened by the loss of Gay etc.  I would have thought they are genuine 1/10 shots.

[TightEnd]

Profit on Month £681.53

Outstanding Bets £3391.62

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=28

Welcome to the lobby of the luxurious Travelodge on Broadway plaza, Birmingham. The soles of my shoes stick to the carpet as I walk from my room!

I awoke to news that the 49ers had beaten the Chiefs 15-13, the upshot being that the thread lost £43 yesterday/overnight

The big success of yesterday was in the Solheim Cup, with correct predictions in both of the morning Foursomes for a profit of over £83. However, free bet apart, a losing day on the Horses, the American football, the small cricket loss and Doncaster beating Blackburn swallowed the Solheim Cup profit up

Stroud fell back in the second round at Greensboro, carding a 72 to go into the weekend seven shots behind

In exciting news, the Rays won 5-4 with a walk-off triple in the 9th and the Red Sox lost so, once again, 10-3 to the Yankees this time the Rays are only a game behind in the AL East

In a double header in the central, the Royals beat the Tigers in both games. Interesting

Today is a busy day for the thread. Frankly we're swamped by the activity but I think this is comprehensive

- T20 finals day Essex, Azharullah in the first semi and boundaries in Surrey/Hampshire, though these may not get sorted to tomorrow

- Two boxing bets for tonight

-  Moussa at Carlisle to score

- Tons of season football bets start today, plus all the Fotball League bets ongoing  

- Wyndham classic Golf, Stroud and hole in one (please)

[tikay]

FFS Pressel dropped Wtf

Only plus is Korda is out too so we are at worst joint leader overnight.

Sandy

I can't find individual scores right now, but Europe lead 5-3, so Pressel must be in a three way tie at present.

She leads out in the very first match today.