Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Hello all I have read every single post and I absolutely love this thread. Never signed up for a forum but I have a tentative suggestion and I would like to hear the opinions of others.

I think the industry have overrated this Real Madrid team . I have watched a number of their matches this season and I am yet to be convinced. Additionally I really like what Simeone is doing with Athletico . I have backed Athletico on different sites at prices ranging from 19/5 to 5/1.

If I were to suggest a bet for thread I would recommend laying Real at around 4/5  or backing Athletico DNB  @ 11/4 on betfair.

I would appreciate the input of others.

Off & running Mr K - good luck.

We plumped for DNB.


BET PLACED

Lovely Fred debut Mr K, very well done, & thank you.

Do call again!

WINNER

[pleno1]

Are we assuming man united aren't value at to win the league?

[tikay]

Are we assuming man united aren't value at to win the league?

No, its not been discussed, as far as I recall.

[pleno1]

Discuss..

[tikay]

Discuss..

We are all ears.

[pleno1]

Points dropped so far

Chelsea (draw)
Liverpool (loss)
Wes Brom (loss)

West Brom loss aside the other points lost (5) are not THAT unexpected.

RVP THE best player in the league has been out and theyve missed him, he will be back fully fit soon and Rooney who has been underperforming for the last 18 months seems like hes found his game again. These 2 are very very important and both will be fit moving forward. Vidic who was out most of last year is fully fit atm.

Arsenal (who are currently top) also gave away 3 points against a weak oppoistion (Villa)

Man City look vunerable away from home and defensively they dont look great. They also have Aguero out injured and Silva, arguably their 2 best players.

Liverpool, good, but title winners? Im not sure/I dont think so.

Tottenham, very good squad but winners? Again Im not sure/Dont think so

Chelsea seem to lack a lot up front and against the big sides they look like they have a lack of options. Vs United they played with 6 in midfield basically.

Uniteds next fixtures are

Sunderland away
Southampton home
Stoke home
Fulham away

Assuming they do well in these matches with RVP back to full fitness they play Arsenal at home which will be a big game. If they win that Id imagine theyd be in the top 3 and we could lay the bet off at somewhere around 3/1? Sorry if this is way off.

December is a SUPER important month, lots of the inexperienced sides and players will struggle, Man United generally do well. Here is the teams they play in December.

Norwich
Hulll
West Ham
Villa
Newcastle
Everton
Tottenham

Im not sure Arsenals squad is big enough to cope with so many games. The other teams ahve a lot of players brought in from weak leagues that will find it difficult with so many games in so few days.

If Man United live to their potential upto January surely we will be able to lay at very good odds?

Cliffs.

- Tough start to the campaign so far and media over reaction
- Other sides arent performing that well
- December a very big month where inexperienced players and thin squads will struggle and the core of United will help them alot


- SEVEN?? TO 1?

Definitely dont bet because I said just seems alarmingly long.

[redarmi]

I don't think it is the worst bet in the world.  They have lost 3 games.  Away at City, away at Liverpool and home to WBA with their best player missing.  It is nothing like the disaster it is being painted out to be.  That said I am not sure about the timing.  All of the big teams, but Arsenal in particular have a powderpuff schedule for the next month.  Even if United went unbeaten and got through the internationals and CL games without any significant injuries I would be surprised if they were shorter than about 5/1 then and any loss and they become a much bigger price.  Personally I would rather hold onto my money and back them at the beginning of November at a slightly lesser price but knowing that the crisis was largely imagined.

[tikay]

I don't see Man U as being "in crisis", far from it, they often start badly. There are even some questioning DM already, which epitomises knee-jerk.

It is a very odd League this season, who could have imagined, even allowing for it being only 15% of the Season gone, that Arsenal would be top, the top three all being London Teams, Southampton 4th, and both Manchester teams losing relatively soft games today?

Spurs @ 10/1 must merit some thought on the value front, too.

At 7/1, of course, Man U deserve some attention. I cant help but think that Rio is becoming almost ordinary, though. He definitely won't be getting better either, he seems to be spinning way too many off-field plates.

[Chompy]

Interesting one to possibly add to the League One top scorer portfolio.

Patrick Bamford was 40-1 with Buttermeup until I just managed to get a tenner on. Now he's 33-1. This guy is class. He's only on loan until January from Chelsea but this is his third spell with Franchise and I can't believe they'll haul him back. He's only 20 and the more experience the better.

He's now on six goals after today's brace and MK will be up there come the end. They're also fairly prolific. Worth a ten-spot I would suggest,

[TightEnd]

Daily Report (to allow me a lie in)

Profit on the Month £528.26

Outstanding Bets £2750.26

Free bets, two with William Hill use by 3rd Oct

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=29

Saturday's are often difficult days for the thread. A lot of activity, a lot of sport taking place and often a losing day is the result

To navigate a day including the Cambridgeshire, a full league football programme and assorted other betting opoortunities with a £126 profit is encouraging

It might just be me, but there is definitely a change in the type of bets put up for consideration on these big days. 18 months ago the thread would have been full of, if not perfectly priced, almost perfectly priced by the market football and other recommendations

Not so much these days, which I think is interesting

Anyway, the winners

- Two of the three William Hill free bet offer horses won for a £50 profit

- Doncaster was an excellent spot by avid Sheff Wed fan RickBFA to beat his own team earlier in the week and they obliged + £65

- redarmi's eye for the quirky spotted Toronto, easy winners at Washington (or was it the other way round, I am juggling lots of balls) +£63

- Newcomer Kmac84 got off the mark with a winner as Athletico beat Real 1-0 for a £48 profit after commission

the losers?

Horses in the Cambridgeshire for -£15 (and a lost free bet)

Last night's rugby league which I forgot to count today -£20

Amat was not booked for Swansea - £20

Good Speech did not win at Ripon -£25
 

It was generally a good day for our longer term positions too

Results broke for Arsenal. They won and both Manchester sides lost, and Spurs and Chelsea drew. We have them to finish top three and they are top tonight in the most open title race in years

 Both our Premier League handicap bets Hull and Cardiff won and both teams are top half of the table

Southampton beat Palace 2-0. Good, we have Palace to finish bottom. Southampton who we have to be relegated? 4th

Not the worst bet on the forward book though. That honour goes to me as Barnsley fell to 24th in the Championship. My sources tell me they went to Leicester played very negatively and got what they deserved. Nothing

Elsewhere in the championship a better story. Watford and Reading both won to be top 6 tonight

As far as I can tell no progress today on goalscorer or assist bets? bale obviously didn't score for Real, so thats another game down there

We can catch up with the Rays and Texas A and M tomorrow alongside all the Sunday sport including interests we have both tomorrow and long term in the NFL

There is £92 invested so far tomorrow on Buffalo/Baltimore, odd points in the first Q at Wembley and Exeter to upset the Tigers.....

 

 

[Tal]

Pleno. I think this is interesting. It's obviously premature to write united off and all the of the sides most likely to win the league have had substantial changes of personnel in the summer.

Traditionally, united are stronger second half of the season anyway. I also think the winning total in the prem will be lower this season, with more funny results and a little less dominance.

It's tough to replace Sir Alex, though. Moyes is going to be given time (6 year contract and fergie's choice - depending on who you believe), but he isn't SrAlx.

Arsenal and spurs we can likely discount. Spurs don't have the league winning mentality and arsenal don't have the squad.

My only thought is maybe see if RvP comes back from injury ok, starts scoring and united look a little more competent before lumping on? Probably happier with 11/2 in those circs than 7/1 now.

Others will follow with more intelligent appraisals...


Edit: others have already done so!!

[tikay]

Interesting one to possibly add to the League One top scorer portfolio.

Patrick Bamford was 40-1 with Buttermeup until I just managed to get a tenner on. Now he's 33-1. This guy is class. He's only on loan until January from Chelsea but this is his third spell with Franchise and I can't believe they'll haul him back. He's only 20 and the more experience the better.

He's now on six goals after today's brace and MK will be up there come the end. They're also fairly prolific. Worth a ten-spot I would suggest,

Win only?

BMU go qtr odds, first four.

Confirm, please.

The £10 Win @ 33/1 is reserved, pending your reply.

[tikay]

".....It might just be me, but there is definitely a change in the type of bets put up for consideration on these big days. 18 months ago the thread would have been full of, if not perfectly priced, almost perfectly priced by the market football and other recommendations....."

Entirely agree. We used to be full of "I fancy", & "Team A has won 6 in a row, Team B has lost 6 in a row, we must get on Team A", sort of stuff.

On one Saturday, one chap (no longer here), suggested THREE Maximums on Premier League games!

Almost everybody seems to have grasped the Value nettle now, though.

[McGlashan]

Man United have looked like value for the title all season but like Dubai said the value doesn't look to be going away any time  soon. I definitely wouldn't put anyone off slowly taking up a position on them at these odds. 

[Chompy]

Interesting one to possibly add to the League One top scorer portfolio.

Patrick Bamford was 40-1 with Buttermeup until I just managed to get a tenner on. Now he's 33-1. This guy is class. He's only on loan until January from Chelsea but this is his third spell with Franchise and I can't believe they'll haul him back. He's only 20 and the more experience the better.

He's now on six goals after today's brace and MK will be up there come the end. They're also fairly prolific. Worth a ten-spot I would suggest,

Win only?

BMU go qtr odds, first four.

Confirm, please.

The £10 Win @ 33/1 is reserved, pending your reply.

Perhaps not the best spot for an eachy-way, as a lot depends on whether he stays in January. Win only better at 33-1, although VCSlash went 40, 33, 25, 20...now 16-1. This could cost the industry miwwions.