Tips for Tikay

[The Camel]

Is Nigel Clough such a good manager?  His team at Derby just seemed to be inconsistent and never really went anywhere whilst he was there.  I don't think most of the Derby fans rated him at all.

There is something about him that reeks of a lack of heart.

Just think he's not great in front of a camera.

Decent tactician as far as I can see.

[bobby1]

Is Nigel Clough such a good manager?  His team at Derby just seemed to be inconsistent and never really went anywhere whilst he was there.  I don't think most of the Derby fans rated him at all.

Well I guess it depends on how you view success for Derby Doobs. Mid table Championship seems about their level imo but obviously he did a very good job at Burton. It would be difficult to a worse job than Weir tho.

[jakally]

The Sheffield United top 6 bet is only a small one, so not a massive issue, but probably not a great bet.
Don't think it happens often enough to make 11/1 good.

They pretty much need to be the best team in the division for the rest of the season to get top 6.
Being a much better team til Jan, then the best team from that point isn't good enough.
(Last 3 seasons sixth has needed 71,73 & 74 points. They currently have 9 from 13 games. Need near  league-winning form to get enough from here).

Clough's rep is as a team builder, not a guy who sweeps into a club and changes things quickly. (I'm a Clough fan, so like the appointment btw).

Good luck with the bet though.

[jakally]

Corners bet for the weekend.

Leicester are by far the most prolific corner-getters in the Championship.
Their home games have gone over 11 corners in the last 10 games, and 16 out of the last 17. (I'm not at home at the minute, so going from memory, so may be one out on one of those numbers).

They play Bournemouth at the weekend, who have an average corner record, but who score goals away from home (think they've scored in every away game this season so far from memory) which is broadly good for corners overs betting.

Current odds are evens for over 11. Should be 3/4 - 4/5 or priced up as under/over 12.

Recommend £30 @ Evens Bet365 Leicester v Bournemouth over 11 corners.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £320.26

Outstanding Bets £2878.66

Free bets, ONE William Hill to use by Saturday

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=30

A profit of £58 yesterday. £68 won on the combinations of first goal and anytime scorer bets for Bayern Munich (Ribery and Alaba) offset by a £10 loss on the fall of Dean Elgar's wicket in Dubai

The cricket bets were summarised in a post yesterday. Biley, very promising, Pakistan not

We wait to see Holloway's successor at Palace, and see if that will have any impact on our Palace to finish bottom bet

There is a William Hill free bet to use by Saturday. Can I suggest this is placed today. Horrendous few days coming up for tikay (and I) with limited time on here, so would be a shame to let it lapse

[tikay]

Will try & do the Admin now, & catch up on bets & recommends.

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

A glorious morning here for the first time in days, maybe 2 oktas.

This afternoon Ferrer plays Benneteau in Valencia indoors. The H2H record has Ferrer leading 5-4 but this is misleading as Ferrer's wins come on his favoured clay surface. Without them the record has Benneteau leading 3-1 with him winning on the two occasions they have played indoors. I would prefer it if they were in China as Ferrer will  certainly get assistance from the crowd but the 5/2 is enough compensation.

Suggest £20 or £25 if you want to use the free bet @ 5/2 with William Hill.

[Tal]

Had a look at the game tonight in Moldova Transnistria, but Hills seem to be eager to avoid Fred's free bet being placed on this game. Some shocking prices in comparison to their rivals.

[tikay]

Yuh, looking at him for sure. Seven leads and McGurk is only one off.

I've kept an eye on him for a couple of weeks. 25/1.

had a collapsed lung whilst at tranmere which i believe partly is why they did not renew his contract (fitness doubts)

Has had problems and read on the Burton forum that he might be a bit lightweight. That's all that's putting me off tbh. Shocking division this season.

I missed all this yesterday.

25/1 remains generally available, maybe more @ BetFred but I cannot find the Market on there at present, & too busy.

Do we want to speculate a small sum @ 25/1, or leave it for the moment?

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

A glorious morning here for the first time in days, maybe 2 oktas.

This afternoon Ferrer plays Benneteau in Valencia indoors. The H2H record has Ferrer leading 5-4 but this is misleading as Ferrer's wins come on his favoured clay surface. Without them the record has Benneteau leading 3-1 with him winning on the two occasions they have played indoors. I would prefer it if they were in China as Ferrer will  certainly get assistance from the crowd but the 5/2 is enough compensation.

Suggest £20 or £25 if you want to use the free bet @ 5/2 with William Hill.

TWO oktas? GIQ!

Thanks for that bet.

Think we'll just back it as a regular bet, rather than the WH Freebie, it's a bit short for that, though we do need to find a use today, as Tighty & I will only be intermittently available until Monday after tomorrow morning.

BET PLACED

[david3103]

Manchester United can be backed to win the PL on BF at 11.5, (I'm not optimistic enough to think we can do this btw)
but the next three league games are Stoke at home, Fulham away and arsenal at home. Two of these are very winnable and the third becomes more so on the back of those.
Arsenal have to play Liverpool whilst City and Chelsea have to play each other.

Is there a case for taking the 11.5 and trading out before or more probably, after the Arsenal game?

[tikay]

Manchester United can be backed to win the PL on BF at 11.5, (I'm not optimistic enough to think we can do this btw)
but the next three league games are Stoke at home, Fulham away and arsenal at home. Two of these are very winnable and the third becomes more so on the back of those.
Arsenal have to play Liverpool whilst City and Chelsea have to play each other.

Is there a case for taking the 11.5 and trading out before or more probably, after the Arsenal game?

Personally, whilst the price may well shorten in that 3 match period, I doubt it'll be enough to make a potential Trade worthwhile. In fact, it is not forced to shorten at all, if results don't go tickity-boo.  

[tikay]

Yuh, looking at him for sure. Seven leads and McGurk is only one off.

I've kept an eye on him for a couple of weeks. 25/1.

had a collapsed lung whilst at tranmere which i believe partly is why they did not renew his contract (fitness doubts)

Has had problems and read on the Burton forum that he might be a bit lightweight. That's all that's putting me off tbh. Shocking division this season.

40/1 with Vic.

25/1 with Vic now.

[tikay]

The Good

Bailey top scored with 98 today, having been dropped first ball and then on 35

So after 4 innings, of 7 total

GJ Bailey (Aus)    318
GJ Maxwell (Aus) 179    
AJ Finch (Aus)    165    
PJ Hughes (Aus)  163
JP Faulkner (Aus) 114    
AC Voges (Aus) 101
SR Watson (Aus) 86

So we are 139 ahead, and in a position where someone has to hit a couple of 50+ innings whilst Bailey fails twice for it to be close going to the last game

The Interesting

Maldini has us on Elgar 10/1 top SA bat in Dubai. Currently 15* out of 67-1

The Lets Gloss over it

Pakistan 99, South Africa 67-1 is the archetypal inconsistent Pakistani day. A long way back from here, even though it is spinning sharply.

As Jaffa commented, that Bailey bet is an absolute corker, well done Rich.

To be fair, we were lucky on three counts yesterday, as he got dropped twice, & the Game was eventually abandoned as "no result".

The vibes are with us.

[tikay]

The Rugby League World Cup is imminent

RL is not really my sport, but it struck me that there had to be an opportunity in the Tryscorer markets, so here are the results of a couple of hours of research

There are 4 groups, 8 through to the QF. 3 from the 2 strong groups and 1 each from the "also ran" groups

Australia win their group, you would expect, then play an also ran group winner in the QF and then the team that finishes second in the NZ group in the semi final

Its all on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Rugby_League_World_Cup

Meanwhile in the other half NZ would be expected to play Eng in the semi


The point I am making here is that top try scorer should be Australian. They will play, you would think, 6 matches. QF and SF against lesser teams. RL games can be very one sided, becuase in mismatch games the impact of the side conceding the try having to kick off can be enormous

So to the Australian side.

They have a winger who has 13 tries in 13 Tests

In the NRL he has 98 tries in 153 appearances

Inside him he has the best centre around, Michael Jennings (my research tells me)

The playmaker Thurston likes to kick to his wing (my research tells me)

So what price an Australian winger, first choice it appears, for the best side in the tournament with 4 of 6 games against inferior oppostiion?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brett_Morris

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-league/world-cup/rugby-league-world-cup/top-tournament-try-scorer

10-1 Ladbrokes is the answer (5/2 top 4 on each way terms)  just behind his teammater Slater at fullback and Josh Charnley of England. I know Charnley is a finisher, but I suspect the central case has to be he plays a game less than the Australians, and has to play against Australia and New Zealand in those 5 games

This the most likely scenario as the RLWC isn't the most competitive competition you'll see in terms of depth, so many results and therefore paths through the tournament are quite predictable for the big three sides


Hector, Kinboshi etc to sense test this please.

That is a super fun sweat & great value @ 10/1, despite the fact he might not play all the games. It's in that price imo.

 
Later, it was mentioned that 14/1 was available on BetFred, also quarter odds, so I took some of that instead of the 10/1 at Ladbrokes.  He is now 9/1 bet with both BetFred & Ladbrokes, shorter elsewhere.

BET PLACED