Tips for Tikay

[typhoon13]

I'm not greening out/laying Nat in Strictly, we came here to gamble right? Think we've got a very good bet at 8/1

+1

I can understand the layers thoughts but....

If Nat can scramble into the top 3 there is a positive return

Plus the value on the others now eroded

I am spinning for 4 figures return and going for greedy lottttttttt

[The Camel]

Fwiw I was talking to ray (lol) and a friend from home (lol) about this exact thing this week. I have it down as


Certainty finishing ahead of us

Man U
Man c
Liverpool
Chelsea
Arsenal
Spurs

I think we are fighting for the next spots with

Southampton
Everton
Swansea

I think we are v likely to finish ahead of

Palace
Sunderland
Hull
Cardiff
West brom
Norwich
Stoke
West ham
Fulham


So three reasons why I think we can finish higher than projected (no idea on value)

- the teams predicted to,finish around or above us such as fulham/west ham/Norwich/sunderlandmare almost certainly finishing below us and re performing bad
- the two teams competition for a position with us are Everton and Southampton. Southampton have a very young squad who are overperformingmright now, their bench this weekend was also suspiciously weak, I think a few injuries and they will be struggling big time.

Substitutes
03 Yoshida
08 Davis
17 Osvaldo
22 Chambers
25 Gazzaniga
38 Reed
40 Gallagher

Bolder especially are nowhere near prem class ATM.

You then have Everton who are performing well but trying to adapt toa new system and rely on Lukaku so much. Teams will start just focusing on him so much, this happened with Ben arfa and we eventually subbed him. I think Gareth Barry and McCarthy is way too static for a central,midfield partnership.

I would say we were probably favourites to finish ahed of Southampton and underdogs to finish above Everton.' Newcastle started the season very slowly and lost around 6 points that we definitely shouldn't have.

One of the reasons we re placed so bad with the bookies is because of our away record last season, weve already recorded more points away from home this season than the whole of,last season with wins at Cardiff/spurs/villa away which are two very tough places to go and win.

We've already played a lot,of,the big teams and done well vs Chelsea and Liverpool at home.

Ray questioned our squad depth but outside of the starting 11 we have

- Ben arfa, fit but can't get a game he is genuinely really good
- Anita, really tidy and dependable
- Gutierrez works hard
- cisse, meh but has proven record
- marveaux, one of our best players last yer
-'debauchee, back from,suspension now probably player of season so far
- Taylor, solid centre half
- Sammy ameobi/Adam Campbell/dummet young promising players

I think we look in very good shape if Ashley signs anybody in January (probably wont) we could really push on.

You reckon you are favourites to finish above Southampton.

I will lay you as much you want at 11/10 you do so.

[The Camel]

4/1 Leicester for the Championship.

E/w 1/4 1,2,3

Looks like a must bet to me.

[BigAdz]

4/1 Leicester for the Championship.

E/w 1/4 1,2,3

Looks like a must bet to me.

Stampede!!!!!

[redarmi]

Fwiw I was talking to ray (lol) and a friend from home (lol) about this exact thing this week. I have it down as


Certainty finishing ahead of us

Man U
Man c
Liverpool
Chelsea
Arsenal
Spurs

I think we are fighting for the next spots with

Southampton
Everton
Swansea

I think we are v likely to finish ahead of

Palace
Sunderland
Hull
Cardiff
West brom
Norwich
Stoke
West ham
Fulham


So three reasons why I think we can finish higher than projected (no idea on value)

- the teams predicted to,finish around or above us such as fulham/west ham/Norwich/sunderlandmare almost certainly finishing below us and re performing bad
- the two teams competition for a position with us are Everton and Southampton. Southampton have a very young squad who are overperformingmright now, their bench this weekend was also suspiciously weak, I think a few injuries and they will be struggling big time.

Substitutes
03 Yoshida
08 Davis
17 Osvaldo
22 Chambers
25 Gazzaniga
38 Reed
40 Gallagher

Bolder especially are nowhere near prem class ATM.

You then have Everton who are performing well but trying to adapt toa new system and rely on Lukaku so much. Teams will start just focusing on him so much, this happened with Ben arfa and we eventually subbed him. I think Gareth Barry and McCarthy is way too static for a central,midfield partnership.

I would say we were probably favourites to finish ahed of Southampton and underdogs to finish above Everton.' Newcastle started the season very slowly and lost around 6 points that we definitely shouldn't have.

One of the reasons we re placed so bad with the bookies is because of our away record last season, weve already recorded more points away from home this season than the whole of,last season with wins at Cardiff/spurs/villa away which are two very tough places to go and win.

We've already played a lot,of,the big teams and done well vs Chelsea and Liverpool at home.

Ray questioned our squad depth but outside of the starting 11 we have

- Ben arfa, fit but can't get a game he is genuinely really good
- Anita, really tidy and dependable
- Gutierrez works hard
- cisse, meh but has proven record
- marveaux, one of our best players last yer
-'debauchee, back from,suspension now probably player of season so far
- Taylor, solid centre half
- Sammy ameobi/Adam Campbell/dummet young promising players

I think we look in very good shape if Ashley signs anybody in January (probably wont) we could really push on.

I think the problem with the analysis, with the exception of the somewhat rose tinted view you are a favourite tol finish above Soton, is that whilst you are likely to finish above Stoke, West Brom, West Ham, Villa etc they are much closer to you and you are only slight favourites to win if that were a group bet whereas you are a big dog to finish above Everton any of the teams above them.  In terms of the bet struck I don't really have a view

[Doobs]

Fwiw I was talking to ray (lol) and a friend from home (lol) about this exact thing this week. I have it down as


Certainty finishing ahead of us

Man U
Man c
Liverpool
Chelsea
Arsenal
Spurs

I think we are fighting for the next spots with

Southampton
Everton
Swansea

I think we are v likely to finish ahead of

Palace
Sunderland
Hull
Cardiff
West brom
Norwich
Stoke
West ham
Fulham


So three reasons why I think we can finish higher than projected (no idea on value)

- the teams predicted to,finish around or above us such as fulham/west ham/Norwich/sunderlandmare almost certainly finishing below us and re performing bad
- the two teams competition for a position with us are Everton and Southampton. Southampton have a very young squad who are overperformingmright now, their bench this weekend was also suspiciously weak, I think a few injuries and they will be struggling big time.

Substitutes
03 Yoshida
08 Davis
17 Osvaldo
22 Chambers
25 Gazzaniga
38 Reed
40 Gallagher

Bolder especially are nowhere near prem class ATM.

You then have Everton who are performing well but trying to adapt toa new system and rely on Lukaku so much. Teams will start just focusing on him so much, this happened with Ben arfa and we eventually subbed him. I think Gareth Barry and McCarthy is way too static for a central,midfield partnership.

I would say we were probably favourites to finish ahed of Southampton and underdogs to finish above Everton.' Newcastle started the season very slowly and lost around 6 points that we definitely shouldn't have.

One of the reasons we re placed so bad with the bookies is because of our away record last season, weve already recorded more points away from home this season than the whole of,last season with wins at Cardiff/spurs/villa away which are two very tough places to go and win.

We've already played a lot,of,the big teams and done well vs Chelsea and Liverpool at home.

Ray questioned our squad depth but outside of the starting 11 we have

- Ben arfa, fit but can't get a game he is genuinely really good
- Anita, really tidy and dependable
- Gutierrez works hard
- cisse, meh but has proven record
- marveaux, one of our best players last yer
-'debauchee, back from,suspension now probably player of season so far
- Taylor, solid centre half
- Sammy ameobi/Adam Campbell/dummet young promising players

I think we look in very good shape if Ashley signs anybody in January (probably wont) we could really push on.

You reckon you are favourites to finish above Southampton.

I will lay you as much you want at 11/10 you do so.

To be fair to Patrick, I asked him what he thought of the bet.  I didn't really expect him to be negative, but it is good to get his view. 

Whilst the Southampton relegation bet looks well and truly sunk, there can't be much between them and Newcastle?   

[redarmi]

There has to be a fair bit between then.  They are two points behind Southampton and a worse side.  At best guess I would think they are six points worse for the season or something in that range.

[The Camel]

What is the Newcastle bet Thread is mulling over?

Can't see anything for 4 or 5 pages apart from Pads post gushing how marv the Toon are.

[RickBFA]

Sheffield Wednesday continue their awful results AND performances in the Championship.

On Saturday they were beaten comfortably by Huddersfield. There are serious problems and its clear the players aren't playing for Jones and have no confidence at all.

Defensively Wednesday are putting in more erratic performances in recent games and Dave Jones took the ridiculous decision to drop Chris Kirkland on Saturday (our best player this season) and replace him with Arsenal's 4th choice goalkeeper who is on loan at Hillsborough (unless Jones is completely clueless there must be a lot more to him being dropped than his form).

They also badly miss Anthony Gardener at centre half with either Llera or Zayette playing - both are guaranteed one serious error per game.

Wednesday travel to Blackpool on Saturday.

Blackpool are 19/20 with Corals. I'm on that and suggest a £15 bet.

I was tempted by the thought of Blackpool -1 goal but thought better of it. Barring an unusual display Wednesday will lose.

[Doobs]

Anyway, I just had a bit of time this morning so decided to work out where we stood with the Premiership handicaps.  I just worked out where the teams were projected to finish by projecting current points and adding the handicaps on.

For those interested, the maths has Hull finishing 6th and Cardiff 8th.   Southampton 106, Arsenal 101, Newcastle 96, Liverpool 96, Everton 94, Hull 93, then a gap to Villa 88 and Cardiff 86.

Of those top 6 are shorter than 10/1 on BetVictor's handicap list.  Looking at the prices, that book must have some overound in it.  Despite this, Newcastle seem to standout at 20/1.   I have looked at their games so far and of the big teams, they have already played Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea, and the almost big, Tottenham.  So I don't think they have had a particularly soft start to the season.  To me, it seems more likely that Newcastle will be able to continue there mid table form, than the likes of Liverpool, Arsenal and Southampton will be able to maintain their very good starts.  I think we must have a good chance of at least getting top 3, with an outside chance of picking up first if the frontrunners slow down a bit.

I am sure if we asked somebody completely independent, like Pleno, he'd say this looked a bit of value.  I don't want to be putting loads on as the long run book looks a bit bloated.

Suggest £20 each way, Newcastle on BetVctor's season long Premiership handicap.
 

Bump for Camel.  Was well hidden so got rid of the drivel.

11/10 seems a bit tight. 

[pleno1]

Newcastle have a better squad
Newcastle have better form
Newcastle have more experienced squad


When both teams have locked uop top half position but cant finish higher.

Green - fighting for world cup place
Red - No chance of wold cup place

31 Boruc
02 Clyne
23 Shaw
04 Schneiderlin
06 Fonte
26 Hooiveld
16 Ward-Prowse
12 Wanyama
07 Lambert
20 Lallana
09 Rodriguez

Substitutes
03 Yoshida
08 Davis
17 Osvaldo
22 Chambers
25 Gazzaniga
38 Reed
40 Gallagher



Newcastle United
01 Krul
13 Yanga-Mbiwa
03 Santon
24 Tioté
06 Williamson
02 Coloccini
07 Sissoko
04 Cabaye
14 Remy
23 Sh Ameobi
11 Gouffran
Substitutes

08 Anita
09 Cissé
10 Ben Arfa
19 Haidara
21 Elliot
25 Obertan
28 Sa Ameobi

Debuchy
Guttierez


So when we get to the 30 games mark and both teams are relatively safe etc Id say Newcastle would be favourites because of having a better squad, a bigger squad, a more experience squad and a squad who has mroe to play for.


seems ok?

[The Camel]

Anyway, I just had a bit of time this morning so decided to work out where we stood with the Premiership handicaps.  I just worked out where the teams were projected to finish by projecting current points and adding the handicaps on.

For those interested, the maths has Hull finishing 6th and Cardiff 8th.   Southampton 106, Arsenal 101, Newcastle 96, Liverpool 96, Everton 94, Hull 93, then a gap to Villa 88 and Cardiff 86.

Of those top 6 are shorter than 10/1 on BetVictor's handicap list.  Looking at the prices, that book must have some overound in it.  Despite this, Newcastle seem to standout at 20/1.   I have looked at their games so far and of the big teams, they have already played Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea, and the almost big, Tottenham.  So I don't think they have had a particularly soft start to the season.  To me, it seems more likely that Newcastle will be able to continue there mid table form, than the likes of Liverpool, Arsenal and Southampton will be able to maintain their very good starts.  I think we must have a good chance of at least getting top 3, with an outside chance of picking up first if the frontrunners slow down a bit.

I am sure if we asked somebody completely independent, like Pleno, he'd say this looked a bit of value.  I don't want to be putting loads on as the long run book looks a bit bloated.

Suggest £20 each way, Newcastle on BetVctor's season long Premiership handicap.
 

Bump for Camel.  Was well hidden so got rid of the drivel.

11/10 seems a bit tight. 

Without doing any work on it, Lolerpool look great ew value at 5/1 in that market.

Nice to see a firm updating season handicap market - never seen it before and often wondered why they didn't do it.

[TightEnd]

4/1 Leicester for the Championship.

E/w 1/4 1,2,3

Looks like a must bet to me.

Burnley, Leicester and QPR are 7 points clear of 4th

QPR probably the strongest squad, certainly the best back 5. Don't concede many

Leicester more prolific, but concede a few more this season. Squad is small too and have run well for 15 months with major injuries (ie none of Schmeichel, Morgan, King, Knockaert, Nugent). If we were to suffer, there isn't going to be any strengthening in Jan as we are strugglnig with FFP rules. For now though, the starting XI is good for nearly 2 goals a game which allows them the odd aberration that means few clean sheets

Quite difficult to see Leicester and QPR out of the top 3 so 4-1 e/w on either looks nice and dirty :-)

[tikay]

What is the Newcastle bet Thread is mulling over?

Can't see anything for 4 or 5 pages apart from Pads post gushing how marv the Toon are.

Doobs has since bumped the suggested bet, which we got on.

I think the market makes it's own statement about Newcastle, who were quoted @ 20/1, (+33), which we took with alacrity. The price now is 16/1, doubtless partly due to Fred money in a thin market.

I'm quite happy with the bet on those terms.


The full market is here.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/handicaps

[tikay]

4/1 Leicester for the Championship.

E/w 1/4 1,2,3

Looks like a must bet to me.

What sort of money did you have in mind, Keith? Tiddlearse (copyright Evil Ena), just for Jeff & Chomps, or something more substantial, £10, even £12.50 maybe?

I'm all ears, barrels loaded, ready to fire.