Tips for Tikay

[Tonji]

http://www.oddschecker.com/winter-sports/alpine-skiing/womens-alpine:-beaver-creek-downhill/winner

PP has not been keeping up with the training runs in the States, & are out of line as to current form.

A more open race than expected, with the dominant force of Lindsey Vonn in women's downhill missing with injury.

Lara Gut has been in the top 2 in last runs, & comes off a win at Soelden. 11/2 available.

Click to see full-size image.

Bwin prices reflect the true form in training. Four girls have been putting in the best times, Gut, Fenniger, Weirather & Cook.

[TightEnd]

No daily report tomorrow

Afaict no action in long term bets, or bets closed today, so we remain +£185 with four days of the month to go and a profit likely resting on the weekend's action

David Mooney position was placed today


That means we now have

Wells
Mooney
Assombolonga
Bamford

for the L1 golden boot

with talk of Griffiths too

Perhaps we should look at whether the portfolio is shaped ok before backing the field? Shortly we'll only be the Coventry pair short of having everyone covered and thinning out any potential profit on portfolio diversification....

[Tal]

Gut has a consistent record in the majors!

World Championships
Silver   2013 Schladming   Super G
Silver   2009 Val d'Isère   Downhill
Silver   2009 Val d'Isère   Super Combined

Junior World Ski Championships
Silver   2008 Formigal   Downhill
Silver   2007 Altenmarkt   Downhill

Loving the Winter sports chat. Will be something else to study when this NFL season ends.

[claypole]

http://www.oddschecker.com/winter-sports/alpine-skiing/womens-alpine:-beaver-creek-downhill/winner

PP has not been keeping up with the training runs in the States, & are out of line as to current form.

A more open race than expected, with the dominant force of Lindsey Vonn in women's downhill missing with injury.

Lara Gut has been in the top 2 in last runs, & comes off a win at Soelden. 11/2 available.

Click to see full-size image.

Bwin prices reflect the true form in training. Four girls have been putting in the best times, Gut, Fenniger, Weirather & Cook.

Excellent reccomendation, I will would like to get on

[Tonji]

Gut has a consistent record in the majors!

World Championships
Silver   2013 Schladming   Super G
Silver   2009 Val d'Isère   Downhill
Silver   2009 Val d'Isère   Super Combined

Junior World Ski Championships
Silver   2008 Formigal   Downhill
Silver   2007 Altenmarkt   Downhill

Loving the Winter sports chat. Will be something else to study when this NFL season ends.

My Scandi friends have kept me clued up on what to look for...

I rather like the look of Miss Gut!

[BigAdz]

Whilst looking at the market, it ironically came up in the toolbar as Alpine Beaver......

[doubleup]

So because of the maximum level of refund through the offer and because of the fact it is always value to take the offer, the optimal thing to do is to bet the max on each game and not vary the bet sizes? Right. Tikay will be delighted.

 

That depends on your bankroll but if your bankroll is the size of Freds then yes you should bet the max given it is normally only £100.  Lets do the maths.  We assume every bet has a 50% chance of winning for ease (and without other information it is a reasonable worst case assumption) and we bet £100.

50% of the time we return £190.91 so we have an expectation of 0.50*+90.91= 45.54
If we assume that 20% of the time there is a TD in the last two minutes and that it affects the result of our bet 50% of those times ie we were going to lose our bet (I think it is higher than that but lets be conservative). So 10% of the time I break even when I should have lost
The other 40% of the time we lose so for clarities sake 0.4*-100 = -£40

So my +EV on the bet is +£5.54 for every £100 I bet.  My Kelly calculator tells me if I have a 5.54% on an even money shot I should bet 2.77% of my bankroll so I guess if your roll is a grand then you shouldn't really exceed it.  Of course this all comes down to exactly how many TD's are scored in that period and I can't seem to get that info easily but for the bet to still be -EV it would have to be less than 10% of all TD's.  It probably favours bets on favourites a little more because late TD's are more likely to favour dogs covering.

5.5% surely for Kelly staking? 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

[BigAdz]

Adam Scott fell out of the stalls

-6 after 6........

[Omm]

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/x-factor/winning-act

Nic McDonald is 4-1 with Coral to win xfactor, slightly worse than BF, but they are paying e/w 1-2 at 1/4, effectively evens for 2nd, I would have said this should be odds on considering he has been solid in the betting throughout. There are 5  with Sam odds on and the rest 12-1.

Pass it over to the experts but I would imagine it should be a bet.

[Chompy]

David Mooney position was placed today

That means we now have

Wells
Mooney
Assombolonga
Bamford

for the L1 golden boot

with talk of Griffiths too

Perhaps we should look at whether the portfolio is shaped ok before backing the field? Shortly we'll only be the Coventry pair short of having everyone covered and thinning out any potential profit on portfolio diversification....

The four bets are 40-1, 33-1, 25-1 and 10-1, which comes out as a combined 9-2 shot approximately.

They are now 20-1, 14-1, 7-1 and 10-1, which comes out as a combined 2-1 shot approximately.

Ergo, we are in a good spot. Just need one of our boys to go on a run and for Nicky Nacky and Bamford to stay put in January. And for Britt to stop behaving like a toddler (suspended v Wolfs after another booking last night).

I'd have no problem with backing Griffiths at 4-1, a quarter 1-2-3-4, but it doesn't really fit in with the others somehow.

[Tal]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/10479667/Football-match-fixing-six-arrested-by-police-investigating-betting-syndicate-as-rigging-hits-British-game.html

If one of those games was Walsall, I think Fred might be due a refund

[Marky147]

Adam Scott fell out of the stalls

-6 after 6........

Was going to get on Day, but Spoilsports would only allow me 8p e/w...

[Omm]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/10479667/Football-match-fixing-six-arrested-by-police-investigating-betting-syndicate-as-rigging-hits-British-game.html

I'm sure this was being spoke about in the thread not so long ago.

[Tal]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/10479667/Football-match-fixing-six-arrested-by-police-investigating-betting-syndicate-as-rigging-hits-British-game.html

I'm sure this was being spoke about in the thread not so long ago.

Yes. Quite recently.

[tikay]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/10479667/Football-match-fixing-six-arrested-by-police-investigating-betting-syndicate-as-rigging-hits-British-game.html

I'm sure this was being spoke about in the thread not so long ago.

Yes. Quite recently.

!