Tips for Tikay

[BigAdz]

Been watching a bit on youtube. Quinny seems the better (ice) dancer to me, but Hayley has a public-pleasing personality. Just had a bit on at 4/1 for interest.

The surly Scotchman, recced at 7/2 and rebuffed, dotted up in SPOTY.

Andy Murray: 401,470

Leigh Halfpenny: 65,913

AP McCoy: 57,854

Mo Farah: 51,945

Sir Ben Ainslie: 48,140

Chris Froome: 37,343

Hannah Cockroft: 26,151

Christine Ohuruogu: 13,179

Justin Rose: 9,833

Ian Bell: 5,626

Total: 717,454

Anyone any thoughts on 2014? Half-interested in Rory at 25/1 and Rosey at 66/1. Obv it's a World Cup year, so no English footballers have any chance.

When you say Rosey, I presume you mean Justin Rose?

Surely he has no chance if he cant poll more than Christine Ohwhoareyou in the year he wins The US Open.

[Tal]

Just to add my bit for doobs and team maths to make sense of...

SCD followers will know everyone dances once before the first couple leaves. That dance is the judges' choice.

Abbey will be doing a Waltz (week 1 - scores 8-8-8-8: 32)
Natalie will be doing a Cha Cha (week 1 - 8-8-8-7: 31)
Sophie will be doing a Viennese Waltz (week 10 - 9-9-9-9: 36)
Susanna will be doing a Quickstep (week 10 - 7-8-9-9: 33)

So that's three ballroom dances and one latin. Natalie struggled with her hips in that dance and it is quite a quick cha-cha. I'd argue there is a definite advantage to Sophie and Susanna in having dances they have only recently done. Must save a bit of time on the training this week! Susanna got into a bit of a mess a couple of times and would be eager to put those footwork errors right. Sophie had a shoulder issue in hold (as she tensed up, her left shoulder came up a little and she lost her neckline). That won't be an issue this time. Brendan will make sure of it.

I think there's an argument that the one to go is most likely to be Natalie or Abbey, because the Waltz lovers might prefer Sophie's Viennese, which I can see getting 38+. Susanna's dance, if she nails it, will be a knockout job, but that's a big if. The public will carry her through to the last three anyway.

In the last three, we have the showdance, where anything goes (not necessarily in a Cole Porter way). They then get to choose their own favourite and curiously Abbey hadn't chosen her salsa from the other night that got 40. She's doing a quickstep instead, so two ballroom dances. Natalie will do the American Smooth and the other two are more predictable: Sophie's Charleston and Susanna's Paso.

Were I a betting man, Susanna - Sophie - Abbey - Natalie would be my order.

Flame away.

Hope that helps the maths people

[Chompy]

Yuh, US Open was never going to be enough tho. He's 25/1 to win the Open and then there's the Ryder Cup.

[Tal]

Ryder Cup, you say? Poulter? Gooners seem to overachieve in SPOTY...

[tikay]

The PP NBA offer is on again tonight, and for the next couple.

Tonight's game is Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat, the two top sides in the east, so it's likely to be close (and likely to trigger the money back as points in the last 10 secs happen much more in close games, where they foul opponents to stop the clock.

No price up yet as Lebron, Miami's star, is a game-time decision with an ankle injury. I'll be very surprised if he doesn't play tbh, seems fine. They lost to the Pacers last week and don't play them again for months so it's got some importance. Indiana also have the better record, so tie-breakers may come into it in the playoffs way down the line.

I'll be online and follow all the guys on twitter who will have Lebron news when it comes, stay tuned!

(tbh with the concession whichever side we pick is a value bet I reckon, but they won't price it while he's uncertain by the looks of it, tho this train wifi is patchy so might be there somehwhere)

Thanks for this Jaffa. Can you keep reminding us when these are on please ?

Two more tonight Sonour, will take a look later, but first it's confession time....I thought we won the first bet at Indiana +3.5...it was actually +3 and we pushed! This is quite ridic, we were 11 up at half time and 16 up at one point in the second half, meaning we had 13 and 18 points in hand. We were still 8 up late in the 4th, so 10 points in hand, and somehow Miami sneaked it. Even at the last minute, Indiana tried a three pointer where their player was defo fouled by LBJ but there was no call. Was sure we couldn't lose, Miami hadn't been 3 up all game until the last second, and Indiana had a chance to score after that, they had no way of extending. What a travesty.

Anyway, will be on later with two coins to flip, if teeks wants to guess them first, it may well influence me on going t'other way

Thanks Jeff.

Will reply to your Texts soonest, am flat out busy here. I was in bed when you sent the text, so it gave me something to idly think about as I lay there.

For clarification, Fred got on the Indiana Bet @ 3.5, & it has been settled as a WINNER, see Settlement Slip below. Bit of a sickener for you, sorry!



Bet receipt number : O/23146337/0000400



Indiana Pacers At Miami Heat



19th of Dec 2013 00:10 am



Handicap Betting.



Indiana Pacers (+3.5) @ 10/11


Bet placed at

18th of Dec 2013 10:34 pm

Total Stake

£13.97

Total stake due

£13.97



Stake per line

£13.97

Freebets Redeemed

£0.00



£13.97

Returns

£26.67





Total Returns

£26.67

[tikay]

The PP NBA offer is on again tonight, and for the next couple.

Tonight's game is Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat, the two top sides in the east, so it's likely to be close (and likely to trigger the money back as points in the last 10 secs happen much more in close games, where they foul opponents to stop the clock.

No price up yet as Lebron, Miami's star, is a game-time decision with an ankle injury. I'll be very surprised if he doesn't play tbh, seems fine. They lost to the Pacers last week and don't play them again for months so it's got some importance. Indiana also have the better record, so tie-breakers may come into it in the playoffs way down the line.

I'll be online and follow all the guys on twitter who will have Lebron news when it comes, stay tuned!

(tbh with the concession whichever side we pick is a value bet I reckon, but they won't price it while he's uncertain by the looks of it, tho this train wifi is patchy so might be there somehwhere)

Thanks for this Jaffa. Can you keep reminding us when these are on please ?

Two more tonight Sonour, will take a look later, but first it's confession time....I thought we won the first bet at Indiana +3.5...it was actually +3 and we pushed! This is quite ridic, we were 11 up at half time and 16 up at one point in the second half, meaning we had 13 and 18 points in hand. We were still 8 up late in the 4th, so 10 points in hand, and somehow Miami sneaked it. Even at the last minute, Indiana tried a three pointer where their player was defo fouled by LBJ but there was no call. Was sure we couldn't lose, Miami hadn't been 3 up all game until the last second, and Indiana had a chance to score after that, they had no way of extending. What a travesty.

Anyway, will be on later with two coins to flip, if teeks wants to guess them first, it may well influence me on going t'other way

Sigh, I was so unlucky last night.

I will be offline, & working, unable to place bets between 6pm & just after Midnight, so for Fred purposes, if you could bear that in mind I'd appreciate it. Dunno what time kick off is, but I can place the bets after 0030 OK, or before 6pm.

[tikay]

£50 on Sophie Ellis Bextor to win Strictly at 4/1 with BetVictor or Boyles.  Sure to be able to trade out at shorter.  Big charge going on, she went 9/2 yesterday (sigh at missing Coral's e/w).  Gogogo

Groan......

Oddly, just minutes ago, a well-renowned SCD expert & devotee PM'd me to tell me to get on.......Abbey Clancy!

I've not got a clue what is going on here.

Anyway, I missed the 4/1 with BMU, 7/2 now, but got £50 @ 4/1 with Boylesports.

BET PLACED

You could probably bet both.  Abbey bigger than Betfair too.

You could just put up a £50 lay at 4.2 on Betfair now.  If it gets taken fine, we have a freebie, if it doesn't we have Sophie at a big price.  Win, win.  I am not laying mine off FWIW.  

Don't get the hostility, reality TV is where the big edges are.  Next people will be grouching at the Hills offers.  

Might even volunteer to do Sunday's round up if she wins.   There isn't much to report on the average Sunday.

The bamboozlement continues.....

We have done that, £50 @ 4.2 LAY, of Sophie Ellis Bextor. It is currently NOT MATCHED


BET PLACED

I am sure this has got matched, so we are left with £2.50 to win £40, which is nice.  The market has been really strange this week.  Sophie went right in to 5/2 (I laid a bit at that), and now she is right out above 4/1 again.  

I have discovered our horse is carrying an injury which isn't great.  I still think anything over 4/1 is a bet, and the Susanna price still looks too short.  I am not sure if Abbey or Sophie is the most likely, but betting whoever is biggest can't be so bad. Can't believe you consulted someone else before doing that piece.

FWIW after all Ant's Palace talk, I think the best punt is likely to be the one he doesn't mention.  BetVictor are 100/1 on the handicap wotha  51 point start.  They only need 50 points for us to clean up.  If you are going to punt, do it in style  Before you go crazy, it is probably worth mentioning that Palace have only beaten sides near the bottom, I think they need to be beating a few higher up before I get excited about my handicap bet.

If I had known he was going to give me a Novelty Shite bet, I would have consulted you. I thought he'd give me a proper bet. Now my 3 from 3 unbeaten Tips record is in jeopardy.

[tikay]

I'm a little busy so haven't read all the DOI stuff but have seen Bracken mentioned a few times, there is a chance he is not fully fit at the moment so should probably keep that in mind.

I have backed Quinn a few times in the last week or so and think the front two will be hard to beat.

Your right bobby, he broke his ankle last month, but he is still training and no mention of him pulling out.

yes, I don't think there is a chance of him pulling out and he should get through the initial stages anyway but obviously ice skating on a recently broken ankle against good skaters that are fully fit could be giving away a hefty advantage if there is any lingering niggle there.

Pah, it never bothered me.

[tikay]

It's DEFINITELY Rigged.

I saw brief mention of this on blonde a few days ago - the "rigged" UEFA CL Draw.

Unbelievable, the things people do.



http://www.insideworldfootball.com/world-football/europe/13806-fast-build-twitter-account-scams-target-world-cup-and-cl-draws?acm=6841_658

[tikay]

£50 on Sophie Ellis Bextor to win Strictly at 4/1 with BetVictor or Boyles.  Sure to be able to trade out at shorter.  Big charge going on, she went 9/2 yesterday (sigh at missing Coral's e/w).  Gogogo

Groan......

Oddly, just minutes ago, a well-renowned SCD expert & devotee PM'd me to tell me to get on.......Abbey Clancy!

I've not got a clue what is going on here.

Anyway, I missed the 4/1 with BMU, 7/2 now, but got £50 @ 4/1 with Boylesports.

BET PLACED

You could probably bet both.  Abbey bigger than Betfair too.

You could just put up a £50 lay at 4.2 on Betfair now.  If it gets taken fine, we have a freebie, if it doesn't we have Sophie at a big price.  Win, win.  I am not laying mine off FWIW.  

Don't get the hostility, reality TV is where the big edges are.  Next people will be grouching at the Hills offers.  

Might even volunteer to do Sunday's round up if she wins.   There isn't much to report on the average Sunday.

The bamboozlement continues.....

We have done that, £50 @ 4.2 LAY, of Sophie Ellis Bextor. It is currently NOT MATCHED


BET PLACED

I am sure this has got matched, so we are left with £2.50 to win £40, which is nice.  The market has been really strange this week.  Sophie went right in to 5/2 (I laid a bit at that), and now she is right out above 4/1 again.  

I have discovered our horse is carrying an injury which isn't great.  I still think anything over 4/1 is a bet, and the Susanna price still looks too short.  I am not sure if Abbey or Sophie is the most likely, but betting whoever is biggest can't be so bad.  Can't believe you consulted someone else before doing that piece.

FWIW after all Ant's Palace talk, I think the best punt is likely to be the one he doesn't mention.  BetVictor are 100/1 on the handicap wotha  51 point start.  They only need 50 points for us to clean up.  If you are going to punt, do it in style   Before you go crazy, it is probably worth mentioning that Palace have only beaten sides near the bottom, I think they need to be beating a few higher up before I get excited about my handicap bet.

Are you serious?

If so, we'll get on, as I actually DO like that bet. Ant & Peace gives us 37 Palace bets every week, but that one looks a standout to me @ that price.

[tikay]

£50 on Sophie Ellis Bextor to win Strictly at 4/1 with BetVictor or Boyles.  Sure to be able to trade out at shorter.  Big charge going on, she went 9/2 yesterday (sigh at missing Coral's e/w).  Gogogo

Groan......

Oddly, just minutes ago, a well-renowned SCD expert & devotee PM'd me to tell me to get on.......Abbey Clancy!

I've not got a clue what is going on here.

Anyway, I missed the 4/1 with BMU, 7/2 now, but got £50 @ 4/1 with Boylesports.

BET PLACED

You could probably bet both.  Abbey bigger than Betfair too.

You could just put up a £50 lay at 4.2 on Betfair now.  If it gets taken fine, we have a freebie, if it doesn't we have Sophie at a big price.  Win, win.  I am not laying mine off FWIW.  

Don't get the hostility, reality TV is where the big edges are.  Next people will be grouching at the Hills offers.  

Might even volunteer to do Sunday's round up if she wins.   There isn't much to report on the average Sunday.

The bamboozlement continues.....

We have done that, £50 @ 4.2 LAY, of Sophie Ellis Bextor. It is currently NOT MATCHED


BET PLACED

I am sure this has got matched, so we are left with £2.50 to win £40, which is nice.  The market has been really strange this week.  Sophie went right in to 5/2 (I laid a bit at that), and now she is right out above 4/1 again.  

I have discovered our horse is carrying an injury which isn't great.  I still think anything over 4/1 is a bet, and the Susanna price still looks too short.  I am not sure if Abbey or Sophie is the most likely, but betting whoever is biggest can't be so bad.  Can't believe you consulted someone else before doing that piece.

FWIW after all Ant's Palace talk, I think the best punt is likely to be the one he doesn't mention.  BetVictor are 100/1 on the handicap wotha  51 point start.  They only need 50 points for us to clean up.  If you are going to punt, do it in style   Before you go crazy, it is probably worth mentioning that Palace have only beaten sides near the bottom, I think they need to be beating a few higher up before I get excited about my handicap bet.

Are you serious?

If so, we'll get on, as I actually DO like that bet. Ant & Peace gives us 37 Palace bets every week, but that one looks a standout to me @ that price.

Very brief, as I'm working, & will be until Midnight.

I could not resist a tenner @ 100/1 (BMU) on Palace, on the handicap. I'm happy to keep it for myself, off-thread, OR book it to Fred, let me know if you think Fred should have it please.

[tikay]

The PP NBA offer is on again tonight, and for the next couple.

Tonight's game is Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat, the two top sides in the east, so it's likely to be close (and likely to trigger the money back as points in the last 10 secs happen much more in close games, where they foul opponents to stop the clock.

No price up yet as Lebron, Miami's star, is a game-time decision with an ankle injury. I'll be very surprised if he doesn't play tbh, seems fine. They lost to the Pacers last week and don't play them again for months so it's got some importance. Indiana also have the better record, so tie-breakers may come into it in the playoffs way down the line.

I'll be online and follow all the guys on twitter who will have Lebron news when it comes, stay tuned!

(tbh with the concession whichever side we pick is a value bet I reckon, but they won't price it while he's uncertain by the looks of it, tho this train wifi is patchy so might be there somehwhere)

Thanks for this Jaffa. Can you keep reminding us when these are on please ?

Two more tonight Sonour, will take a look later, but first it's confession time....I thought we won the first bet at Indiana +3.5...it was actually +3 and we pushed! This is quite ridic, we were 11 up at half time and 16 up at one point in the second half, meaning we had 13 and 18 points in hand. We were still 8 up late in the 4th, so 10 points in hand, and somehow Miami sneaked it. Even at the last minute, Indiana tried a three pointer where their player was defo fouled by LBJ but there was no call. Was sure we couldn't lose, Miami hadn't been 3 up all game until the last second, and Indiana had a chance to score after that, they had no way of extending. What a travesty.

Anyway, will be on later with two coins to flip, if teeks wants to guess them first, it may well influence me on going t'other way

Sigh, I was so unlucky last night.

I will be offline, & working, unable to place bets between 6pm & just after Midnight, so for Fred purposes, if you could bear that in mind I'd appreciate it. Dunno what time kick off is, but I can place the bets after 0030 OK, or before 6pm.

Jeff,

I can't place those NBA bets now until 0030 earliest, but if they kick off (@) later than that, I will get on them.

Stick them up if you get a chance, please, Mrs Bandit likes them too. And she is NOT a woman to cross.

[redarmi]

I'm not sure it makes the bets -EV but I think it is definitely lower in games like the Bulls-OKC game tonight where the spread is 13.  If a team is leading by double digits then any scoring in the final ten seconds is very unlikely whereas the nut scenario is probably a team leading by like 5/6/7 or something and having to foul very late.  Most games tend to be in that region and obviously a 13 point game can be in that area but it is less likely for obvious reasons.  If I had access to the offer I would still bet it but just a point worth noting I think.  For what it is worth I would expect OKC to go off slightly better than -13 so if you like that side it is probably worth waiting until closer to gametime.

[Marky147]

Hills going 5/1 on Big Bucks to be unbeaten 2013/14 season (at least 1 run)

Any thoughts from our equine experts?

3/1 for the Stayers on Betfair.  Even if we assume that he wins that, that makes him 4/6 to win both his other races given he has won the stayers.  That feels tight, particularly as they may go easy on him first time out and he may face a fit At Fishers Cross and Celestial Hero.  I know the order of the races isn't going to be stayers first, but I think you can reverse it for the example.

There is an obvious chance he could come out, win and not race again, but that is hard to quantify (maybe 5% of the time he wins despite an injury, and another 5 or 10% he injures himself after winning and before Cheltenham)

The price doesn't look great to me, think it is probably about right, or a little short.

Cheers, Doobs!

I can live with about right, for a small sweat

[Doobs]

£50 on Sophie Ellis Bextor to win Strictly at 4/1 with BetVictor or Boyles.  Sure to be able to trade out at shorter.  Big charge going on, she went 9/2 yesterday (sigh at missing Coral's e/w).  Gogogo

Groan......

Oddly, just minutes ago, a well-renowned SCD expert & devotee PM'd me to tell me to get on.......Abbey Clancy!

I've not got a clue what is going on here.

Anyway, I missed the 4/1 with BMU, 7/2 now, but got £50 @ 4/1 with Boylesports.

BET PLACED

You could probably bet both.  Abbey bigger than Betfair too.

You could just put up a £50 lay at 4.2 on Betfair now.  If it gets taken fine, we have a freebie, if it doesn't we have Sophie at a big price.  Win, win.  I am not laying mine off FWIW.  

Don't get the hostility, reality TV is where the big edges are.  Next people will be grouching at the Hills offers.  

Might even volunteer to do Sunday's round up if she wins.   There isn't much to report on the average Sunday.

The bamboozlement continues.....

We have done that, £50 @ 4.2 LAY, of Sophie Ellis Bextor. It is currently NOT MATCHED


BET PLACED

I am sure this has got matched, so we are left with £2.50 to win £40, which is nice.  The market has been really strange this week.  Sophie went right in to 5/2 (I laid a bit at that), and now she is right out above 4/1 again.  

I have discovered our horse is carrying an injury which isn't great.  I still think anything over 4/1 is a bet, and the Susanna price still looks too short.  I am not sure if Abbey or Sophie is the most likely, but betting whoever is biggest can't be so bad.  Can't believe you consulted someone else before doing that piece.

FWIW after all Ant's Palace talk, I think the best punt is likely to be the one he doesn't mention.  BetVictor are 100/1 on the handicap wotha  51 point start.  They only need 50 points for us to clean up.  If you are going to punt, do it in style   Before you go crazy, it is probably worth mentioning that Palace have only beaten sides near the bottom, I think they need to be beating a few higher up before I get excited about my handicap bet.

Are you serious?

If so, we'll get on, as I actually DO like that bet. Ant & Peace gives us 37 Palace bets every week, but that one looks a standout to me @ that price.

Very brief, as I'm working, & will be until Midnight.

I could not resist a tenner @ 100/1 (BMU) on Palace, on the handicap. I'm happy to keep it for myself, off-thread, OR book it to Fred, let me know if you think Fred should have it please.

I was busy earlier.

If Palace are about half as good as Ant thinks, they'll finish on 40 odd points and be challenging for the places on the handicap.  It is possible that we get weighed in the place on that score as we get 51 extra.  It feels like it is a plausible outcome and we get 25/1 on that.  To win, I think they need 50 points, for that they need to be as good as Ant thinks or we need to run insanely well.  Either way am happy with a small punt at 100/1 each way.  If it is on the nose, we can still live in hope.  If I was in Ant's shoes, I'd definitely take the handicap, why just go for the staying up if you think your team is capable of mid table?

Realistically I still think they are likely a poor side, and they likely get relegated, but am just taking a chance that Pulis can sustain this.  As it is I only put a fiver each way myself.  It is clearly just an absolute punt, but think we get a long sweat on it with that 51 start.

And obviously cheering the Toon on Saturday.

Eso Doobs.