Tips for Tikay

[pleno1]

Distin is a huge boss yeh. This may sound stupid but he would be eligible to play for England I'm the World Cup this year. He and jagielka seem to have a deece understanding, but Wilshire may not enjoy that!

[BigAdz]

When all fully fit I think Man City are an absolute class above in the Premier League

But take out 2 or 3 of Toure, Kompany, Silva and Aguero, well they become almost mortal.

I don't think there's a gnat's chuff between the other 5 or 6 near the top.

One thing I do find surprising is that because of this no bookies has been enterprising enough to offer ew top 3. V poor in the circs.

MC everyone

[tikay]

If Camel can recommend Everton for the title, Mt Ben for the King George seems like a walk in the park.

Slower ground should help his suspect jumping, and I think this will be his Gold Cup as he dont jump left handed.

Morning Adz, & MC to you & yours.

To clarify, are you suggesting we have a tickle on Mount Benbulben?

The market is here......


http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-12-26-kempton/15:10/winner

[tikay]

ONE TO KEEP AN EYE ON


PP are currently offering 9/1 on Newcastle without the big 6, Everton are the huge favourites with IMO only Newcastle as a realistic challenger, so in effect its a 2 horse race
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/w-o-big-6

Although I do think 9-1 is good value and worth a small season sweat bet, I think it should be looked at again mid January.

   Evertons next 5 games are all winable and should extend to their 4 point lead over Newcastle


Everton V Sunderland
   Thu 26 Dec    15:00    
   Premier League    
Everton V Southampton
   Sun 29 Dec    13:30    
Premier League    
Stoke V Everton
   Wed 1 Jan    15:00
   Premier League    
Everton V Norwich
   Sat 11 Jan    15:00    
   Premier League    
West Brom V Everton
   Mon 20 Jan    20:00    
   Premier League    
   

Newcastles next 5 games

Premier League    

Newcastle V Stoke
   Thu 26 Dec    15:00    
   Premier League    
Newcastle V Arsenal
   Sun 29 Dec    13:30    
   Premier League    
West Brom V Newcastle
   Wed 1 Jan    15:00    
   Premier League    
Newcastle V Man City
   Sun 12 Jan    14:05    
   Premier League    
West Ham V Newcastle
   Sat 18 Jan    15:00

at the end of this period I would expect Everton to open a 8+ point lead and Newcastles odds should drift to in the region of 12/1 to 16/1 (maybe more)

However, Newcastle then go on a long run of winable games (with the odd exception) and Everton have a run of  tougher games, and I would expect Newcastle to close the gap some what. Everton also have a very tough final 4 games.    2 away games at relegation contenders Hull and an impressive Southampton,and both Manchester clubs at home.

I'm not being a delusional footie fan, I don't actually think Newcastle will finish above Everton but there is a reasonable chance and 9/1 is value and worth a small punt maybe a tenner or a score, but definitely worth another look at come mid January where the value may well increase significantly.

Were there any views on this?

There was an option of 9/1 now, or wait until January & re-evaluate.

[tikay]

The King George, & Kempton generally, Boxing Day.

Several of you have half-suggested backing various horses in the big one.

Note that overnight (again) it has rained very heavily.

Most local roads are flooded, the Thames is as high as I've ever seen it, & the River Mole, which runs nearby, has burst its banks.

As horsey suggested yesterday, official going is likely to be good to soft......

[tikay]

We sneaked a good night out of Matt Ryan last night too which now leaves the QB standings with a game to go as follows.

Manning          5211
Brees              4781
Stafford          4433
Rivers             4249
Ryan               4235
Brady              4221
Roethlisberger 4082
Dalton             4015


Stafford(fingers crossed he plays) is away in a dome against Minny tho might be without Megatron.
Rivers looks certain to be up against a Kansas team that will be resting players so that could work in our favour if they are leading comfortably or it could make it a lot easier for him to pass should he need to.
Brady has a home game against the Bills which is a good match up
Big Ben is up against Cleveland
Ryan is at home in a dome but plays a tough D in Carolina.

We could have done with the game going to overtime last night to give Ryan more passing attempts and it almost did, even 30-50 yards would have made a  difference but tbh it is quite amazing that Ryan still has a chance of making the top 4 after all the injuries that Atlanta have had in skill positions this season.

cheers

Thanks Phil.

Coming into the final week, we still have a shot at all three being in the top 4, & our bets are first 4. Happy with that. Manning has blown everyone away this year, but these were great bets & sweats, & at worst, we'll only lose pennies.   

[tikay]

If you have a youwin account you can get a tasty 16-1 on Everton for the FA Cup (13.5 on Betfair) , As like you Keith they have impressed me,  thought the League might be a step to far at the moment but the FA Cup could be a nice little bit of silverware for such a team.

Thanks Omm.

I don't have a YouWin acccount, & am a bit suspicious of them, but thanks anyway.

[tikay]

interesting lil piece on the first third of the NBA season, our rookie of the year bet on Michael Carter-Williams, MCW, or MC Dub, a non tiddley 14-1 shot we backed. If he can keep a bit freer or injuries we're a shoo-in.

http://espn.go.com/blog/marc-stein/post/_/id/880/rookie-of-the-first-trimester

There's 5 NBA games on Xmas Day, and our friends at PP seem to be doing some offer that if u place 5 bets of £5, u get a £10 bet on the Boxing Day NBA. I've not looked at the terms yet, safe to say I will first, but seems perfect for captain tiddlearse, esp if it combines the other offer too. Will take a look after I've finished peeling spuds and wrapping up power rangers....

Thanks Jeff.

Nice footnote to that piece.......


Do you remember the last rookie who averaged at least 17 points, five rebounds and seven assists for an entire season?
 
Magic Johnson was his name.

We only have a fiver @ 12/1, but that'll do just nicely.

We also had a fiver on Olynyk Kelly (sp), what happened to him?

Enjoy the roast tats today.

[tikay]

OK, we are up to date I think.

There will be no Daily Report today, or tomorrow, it will resume on Friday.

Tomorrow - Boxing Day - may be a busy Fred day, please note I will only be sporadically available after mid-afternoon, as the gardener is coming for tea, so please try & get the suggestions - for bets, not the gardener - up early please.

Have a lovely Christmas. 

[BigAdz]

If Camel can recommend Everton for the title, Mt Ben for the King George seems like a walk in the park.

Slower ground should help his suspect jumping, and I think this will be his Gold Cup as he dont jump left handed.

Morning Adz, & MC to you & yours.

To clarify, are you suggesting we have a tickle on Mount Benbulben?

The market is here......


http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-12-26-kempton/15:10/winner

Go on then.

Im quite wary of the Betfair form, and with Tizzard horses very quiet, I am happy to take on Cue Card. At stages during the Betfair I expected both Dynaste and S Conti to go past Cue Card, but didn't.

I want to be with two horses.

I recall Ruby Walsh getting off Al Ferof after winning the Paddy Power last year and stating he had never sat on a horse that was so tailor made for the KG. His pedigree suggests he will improve over the distance and he remains unexposed but very classy.

Mount Benbullen jumps to the right and because of that his three chances for big pots are Down Royal(where he was running a belter until coming down 3 /4 out)The KG, and Punchestown.
As a suspect jumper the heavy slower ground at Kempton will give him more time at his fences, and I suspect/hope that will see him fulfill his potential. I'm not too concerned about his rating because if he had won at DR last time it would look a whole lot better, and his price would be shorter.

In short, this is Mt Benbullens Gold Cup.


£20 win Al Ferof @4-1

£10 ew Mt Benbullen @16s Coral

[tikay]

If Camel can recommend Everton for the title, Mt Ben for the King George seems like a walk in the park.

Slower ground should help his suspect jumping, and I think this will be his Gold Cup as he dont jump left handed.

Morning Adz, & MC to you & yours.

To clarify, are you suggesting we have a tickle on Mount Benbulben?

The market is here......


http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-12-26-kempton/15:10/winner

Go on then.

Im quite wary of the Betfair form, and with Tizzard horses very quiet, I am happy to take on Cue Card. At stages during the Betfair I expected both Dynaste and S Conti to go past Cue Card, but didn't.

I want to be with two horses.

I recall Ruby Walsh getting off Al Ferof after winning the Paddy Power last year and stating he had never sat on a horse that was so tailor made for the KG. His pedigree suggests he will improve over the distance and he remains unexposed but very classy.

Mount Benbullen jumps to the right and because of that his three chances for big pots are Down Royal(where he was running a belter until coming down 3 /4 out)The KG, and Punchestown.
As a suspect jumper the heavy slower ground at Kempton will give him more time at his fences, and I suspect/hope that will see him fulfill his potential. I'm not too concerned about his rating because if he had won at DR last time it would look a whole lot better, and his price would be shorter.

In short, this is Mt Benbullens Gold Cup.


£20 win Al Ferof @4-1

£10 ew Mt Benbullen @16s Coral

Ha, I forced you into it.....

Damn you for suggesting I use Corals, with all that bloody clicking back & forth to get it to take a bet. They actually "Referred to Trader" for a £220 liability! Not sure how many traders they have working on Xmas Day morning, but it took a while before it was allowed.

I had not realised that bad ground might help a horse jump better - I had thought the exact opposite, that when stamina is at a premium, & the horse is likely more tired, it would jump less well. I've learned something new today.

Good luck, we have a proper Boxing Day sweat to look forward to, along with the Cricket, Darts & Football.

2 BETS PLACED

[Doobs]

If Camel can recommend Everton for the title, Mt Ben for the King George seems like a walk in the park.

Slower ground should help his suspect jumping, and I think this will be his Gold Cup as he dont jump left handed.

Morning Adz, & MC to you & yours.

To clarify, are you suggesting we have a tickle on Mount Benbulben?

The market is here......


http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-12-26-kempton/15:10/winner

Go on then.

Im quite wary of the Betfair form, and with Tizzard horses very quiet, I am happy to take on Cue Card. At stages during the Betfair I expected both Dynaste and S Conti to go past Cue Card, but didn't.

I want to be with two horses.

I recall Ruby Walsh getting off Al Ferof after winning the Paddy Power last year and stating he had never sat on a horse that was so tailor made for the KG. His pedigree suggests he will improve over the distance and he remains unexposed but very classy.

Mount Benbullen jumps to the right and because of that his three chances for big pots are Down Royal(where he was running a belter until coming down 3 /4 out)The KG, and Punchestown.
As a suspect jumper the heavy slower ground at Kempton will give him more time at his fences, and I suspect/hope that will see him fulfill his potential. I'm not too concerned about his rating because if he had won at DR last time it would look a whole lot better, and his price would be shorter.

In short, this is Mt Benbullens Gold Cup.


£20 win Al Ferof @4-1

£10 ew Mt Benbullen @16s Coral

I'd be tempted to wait for offers on Al Ferof, but if you can't wait, 5.4 on Betfair.  As I said above think you have to get some of that 16/1 e/w

[tikay]

If Camel can recommend Everton for the title, Mt Ben for the King George seems like a walk in the park.

Slower ground should help his suspect jumping, and I think this will be his Gold Cup as he dont jump left handed.

Morning Adz, & MC to you & yours.

To clarify, are you suggesting we have a tickle on Mount Benbulben?

The market is here......


http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-12-26-kempton/15:10/winner

Go on then.

Im quite wary of the Betfair form, and with Tizzard horses very quiet, I am happy to take on Cue Card. At stages during the Betfair I expected both Dynaste and S Conti to go past Cue Card, but didn't.

I want to be with two horses.

I recall Ruby Walsh getting off Al Ferof after winning the Paddy Power last year and stating he had never sat on a horse that was so tailor made for the KG. His pedigree suggests he will improve over the distance and he remains unexposed but very classy.

Mount Benbullen jumps to the right and because of that his three chances for big pots are Down Royal(where he was running a belter until coming down 3 /4 out)The KG, and Punchestown.
As a suspect jumper the heavy slower ground at Kempton will give him more time at his fences, and I suspect/hope that will see him fulfill his potential. I'm not too concerned about his rating because if he had won at DR last time it would look a whole lot better, and his price would be shorter.

In short, this is Mt Benbullens Gold Cup.


£20 win Al Ferof @4-1

£10 ew Mt Benbullen @16s Coral

I'd be tempted to wait for offers on Al Ferof, but if you can't wait, 5.4 on Betfair.  As I said above think you have to get some of that 16/1 e/w

Ha, I was in like a shot, maybe too fast.  Anyway, we got the 16/1 EW too, so we'll be OK I hope.

Why are you not supervising present unwrapping for the youngsters? Nice & peaceful there, one assumes?

[aaron1867]

If you bet before 5.30pm today you aren't valid for money back 2nd place offer, so might be better to wait.

[tikay]

If you bet before 5.30pm today you aren't valid for money back 2nd place offer, so might be better to wait.

Noted, but these were not with WH.