Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Tighty's NFL bets are up for SATURDAY night.

Kansas City Chiefs +2.5 v Indianapolis Colts 10/11

Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 v New Orleans Saints 10/11

Can I suggest we do these please ?

Ooh, thanks for the nudge, & yes, we'll climb aboard.

As it is Post-Season, we may consider upping the stakes by a chunk or two.

I don't want to be a killjoy but I would advise caution about upping stakes for the playoffs.

Firstly psychological factors which might be in place in many regular season games (let downs, revenge, looking ahead spots, sandwich spots etc etc) which can lead to good bets are not in play in post season games where you can pretty much rely on every team giving 100% in every position.

Secondly, as there are only 4 (or 2 or 1) each week, each match-up is analysed to death and in totality. It is much more unlikely that the linesmakers will make anything resembling a mistake in the main markets.

As there are so many prop bets on offer, it's in those we should concentrate - because we can definitely get a much bigger edge on these than on the main markets.

I would venture to suggest that we should definitely not bet as big on these selections than Chompy's picks in Celebrity Big Brother rubbish.

(FWIW, if i *HAD* to bet on the two games, I would go the same way as Rich)

Wowzer. Posts like that are why I love this Thread. Thanks Keith.

Once I read it, I instantly realised it was obvious, & I felt a little daft. I was a little euphoric at another very sucessful NFL Season, & had a brain fart I suppopse.

To add to it.......

Tighty is sort of "forced" to offer a selection in for EVERY NFL weekend in his BetPal column, just as horse racing tipsters in the 'papers are forced to select something in every race. Daft, really, they should be able to say "no bet" sometimes.

Rewind some 45 or 50 years, & I had just started betting. And I found a system, it could not lose. No, really, it COULD NOT LOSE.

I used to buy the Sporting Life (how I miss that paper), and for every race at every Meeting, they would list the tips of every newspaper tipster.  All I had to do is see what horses had been tipped most, & hey presto, how could I lose? The only awkard thing was so many tipsters would say "Ken Payne's sel". Ken Payne had a yard full of poor animals, & they were only fit for Sellers, so he'd enter 6 or 8 in every Seller.

Then I added a variation - Dick Whitford's Ratings. (Mr Whitford passed away some years ago). In fact, Phil Bull of Timeform teamed up with Dick Whitford when he was starting Timeform. Incredible things, he knew his stuff, so I added them to the mix.

So now I had an unbeatable system, & I'd be rich forever more.

Soon, I went busto, no idea why.

But practice made perfect, & I think I went busto 6 times before retiring from punting the day I began playing poker, in around 1998 I think. I was a sort of early day Eso Kral, completely helpless, hopeless, & hapless. No disrespect to Eso, of course, none at all. 

And I never had another bet in 14 years, not one, until Camel started this thread. True. 23 months on, & I'm well ahead of the game, thanks to the Elders on this thread.

Who'd have thunk?

[tikay]

Think the first NBA game is 1am if u wanna get a cheeky score on tikay

Thanks Jeff, but I'm a bit averse to accas, I can't help myself, though I'm grateful you put it up, as it alerted others to it.

I know about the suggested value, da de da, but the fact is, bookies LOVE people doing Accas, as you have to beat them 3, 4 or 5 times to win. It's quite hard to beat them once, in truth. Bookies LOVE punters who place Accas, as that is where so much of their profit comes from. They'd far rather we all done Accas than singles. They'll go skint waiting for me, though.   

May improve your "credit rating" a bit though, by showing some ice cream tendencies.

Sprat to catch a mackerel etc, blah blah

Yes, that is entirely fair comment.

I just don't get a buzz from them though, as I'm a nit by nature, through & through.

I used to do nothing but Accas, especially on the Greyhounds, 112 x 10p Reverse Forecast doubles, Traps 1 & 6, da de da. The pain I used to feel when I had a "run-up" which fell at the last hurdle (metaphorical) was horrible though. I don't like pain. 

I am now a winning poker player, too, bit of a novelty for me, as I "lost" my game a few years ago. Just small ball, laughably small, but the satisfaction from being a genuine winner again is immense.

I don't have any objection to Accas being put up here, none at all, but I want Fred to remain profitable, & I dont think, in general, that is the best route to go.

Terms & Conditons apply.

[tikay]

That game was harde for Hibs than it should have been finished at half time.   Hibs were the more dominant team but they lacked composure in front of goal if they had Lee Griffiths in that team I think they would have scored 4 or 5 with the chances they created.  

I think a striker will be on Terry's shopping list as soon as the window opens up.  I wonder if Celtic would consider letting Tony Watt go there?  Might be a good fit as he is not settling in Belgium.

Thanks KMac, & well done, we got there.

I'll be honest - & I'm sure you are shrewd enough to have noticed - but I was not madly keen on this bet. Hence, I kept bumping it "any views please?" hoping the Elders would give me a steer. Not a peep.......

No disrespect to you, none at all. I just don't know enough about ANY football, let alone the Scottish scene, to make fair judgement, so I was looking for help.

I had two instinctive problems with the bet.

1) Value. The available price SEEMED about right to me, by every measurable yardstick, including Betfair. (Though it may have been value earlier, when you tipped it).

2) Local Derby. I have an instinctive gut feel that the jollies in local derbies are generally too short, & the dogs are too long. I have no evidence whatsoever to support this though.

Anyway, it was a winner, very well done, & I'm not being churlish after the Event, but I was busy elsewhere last night, so not able to explain. 

Wait till Chompy hears I only bet £60 though.......he'll be chunkily outraged. 

[tikay]

Celebrity Big Brother

I gather this begins tonight.

Please note I am not available to place bets at all today. None. None at all.

[Chompy]

Housekeeping...

Have you had the chunk on Michael Smith?

Have you been in touch with bwin about cancelling the Fiorentina bet?

Is there someone that can put a CBB bet on tonight in your absence? Prob looking at a 200lb er. Chunktastic.

[horseplayer]

buyers of the ken payne quotes for tft in 2014 are already beating the 0.5 spread

[tikay]

Housekeeping...

Have you had the chunk on Michael Smith?

Have you been in touch with bwin about cancelling the Fiorentina bet?

Is there someone that can put a CBB bet on tonight in your absence? Prob looking at a 200lb er. Chunktastic.

1) Who is Michael Smith, & who does he play for?

2) No, not yet. Maldini sent me a PM, very helpful, & Posted here, but I'm not on the case yet. I will though, in due course, when nothing else exciting is happening. I have to juggle priorities, see?

3) You are having a laugh. 200lb? Honestly, I'd get on, but I'm busy sorting out the Fiorentina bet. Priorities, see?

This must be like being married - being nagged first thing in the morning. Sod that.

[tikay]

buyers of the ken payne quotes for tft in 2014 are already beating the 0.5 spread

Proper character, him.

I bet many here have never heard of him. 

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

I think we can go for another first half out scoring the 2nd half tonight in the Northampton v Harlequins game. Over the last 2 weeks my theory is ahead 7 to 4 with 1 tied game and we are getting odds against. Small sample size I know but it feels right, and I have some more hiding to do now so can't check any more.

Suggest £20 !st half most points @ 6/5 with Paddy Power. The 11/10 with Ladbrokes is OK too.

Congrats on winning month number 8 in a row.

[Marky147]

Think the first NBA game is 1am if u wanna get a cheeky score on tikay

Thanks Jeff, but I'm a bit averse to accas, I can't help myself, though I'm grateful you put it up, as it alerted others to it.

I know about the suggested value, da de da, but the fact is, bookies LOVE people doing Accas, as you have to beat them 3, 4 or 5 times to win. It's quite hard to beat them once, in truth. Bookies LOVE punters who place Accas, as that is where so much of their profit comes from. They'd far rather we all done Accas than singles. They'll go skint waiting for me, though.   

May improve your "credit rating" a bit though, by showing some ice cream tendencies.

Sprat to catch a mackerel etc, blah blah

Yes, that is entirely fair comment.

I just don't get a buzz from them though, as I'm a nit by nature, through & through.

I used to do nothing but Accas, especially on the Greyhounds, 112 x 10p Reverse Forecast doubles, Traps 1 & 6, da de da. The pain I used to feel when I had a "run-up" which fell at the last hurdle (metaphorical) was horrible though. I don't like pain. 

I am now a winning poker player, too, bit of a novelty for me, as I "lost" my game a few years ago. Just small ball, laughably small, but the satisfaction from being a genuine winner again is immense.

I don't have any objection to Accas being put up here, none at all, but I want Fred to remain profitable, & I dont think, in general, that is the best route to go.

Terms & Conditons apply.

Surely giving a bit of equity away to try and ensure the longevity of accounts is a good idea though?

Throw them £20 on the odd treble to keep boxes checked, or unchecked as the case may be.

[Chompy]

Fiorentina-gate rumbles on...

Oddschecker say: "Hi, We’ve been in touch with bwin and they confirm that all teams that qualify for the group stages of the Champions League – either automatically via the top two or via qualification rounds – will be paid as winners."

Awaiting official conf from bwin.

[tikay]

Think the first NBA game is 1am if u wanna get a cheeky score on tikay

Thanks Jeff, but I'm a bit averse to accas, I can't help myself, though I'm grateful you put it up, as it alerted others to it.

I know about the suggested value, da de da, but the fact is, bookies LOVE people doing Accas, as you have to beat them 3, 4 or 5 times to win. It's quite hard to beat them once, in truth. Bookies LOVE punters who place Accas, as that is where so much of their profit comes from. They'd far rather we all done Accas than singles. They'll go skint waiting for me, though.   

May improve your "credit rating" a bit though, by showing some ice cream tendencies.

Sprat to catch a mackerel etc, blah blah

Yes, that is entirely fair comment.

I just don't get a buzz from them though, as I'm a nit by nature, through & through.

I used to do nothing but Accas, especially on the Greyhounds, 112 x 10p Reverse Forecast doubles, Traps 1 & 6, da de da. The pain I used to feel when I had a "run-up" which fell at the last hurdle (metaphorical) was horrible though. I don't like pain. 

I am now a winning poker player, too, bit of a novelty for me, as I "lost" my game a few years ago. Just small ball, laughably small, but the satisfaction from being a genuine winner again is immense.

I don't have any objection to Accas being put up here, none at all, but I want Fred to remain profitable, & I dont think, in general, that is the best route to go.

Terms & Conditons apply.

Surely giving a bit of equity away to try and ensure the longevity of accounts is a good idea though?

Throw them £20 on the odd treble to keep boxes checked, or unchecked as the case may be.

Yes, as I said to Adzy, I don't disagree. It's like eating brussel sprouts though, it does not come easily.

[tikay]

Fiorentina-gate rumbles on...

Oddschecker say: "Hi, We’ve been in touch with bwin and they confirm that all teams that qualify for the group stages of the Champions League – either automatically via the top two or via qualification rounds – will be paid as winners."

Awaiting official conf from bwin.

So where do we stand now?

[Chompy]

Flaming Galoot sounds even better. Go all Alf Stewart on yo ass.

Rec £20 Michael Smith, 66/1, 2015 PDC darts

bwin have promised they'll email me confirmation by the end of the day.

[horseplayer]

one for the hurricane flyers, a slow burner but stick with until the last minute or so

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