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Betting Tips and Sport Discussion
Tips for Tikay
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Topic: Tips for Tikay (Read 16396735 times)
BigAdz
Hero Member
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Posts: 8140
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #63795 on:
January 02, 2014, 09:40:23 PM »
Interesting stand out price tomorrow
Betbright 11-1 Stitch in Time 2.40 Muss
Rest of the bookies have 7-1 max, as low as
with Sid, and 12-1 on Betty for pennies, so not sure if qualifies as a palp?
No opinion on the race, but may interest some
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Good evenink. I wish I had a girlfriend.......
exstream
Hero Member
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Posts: 2508
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #63796 on:
January 02, 2014, 09:41:53 PM »
Quote from: BigAdz on January 02, 2014, 09:40:23 PM
Interesting stand out price tomorrow
Betbright 11-1 Stitch in Time 2.40 Muss
Rest of the bookies have 7-1 max, as low as
with Sid, and 12-1 on Betty for pennies, so not sure if qualifies as a palp?
No opinion on the race, but may interest some
Race which you have opinion on please
Logged
BigAdz
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 8140
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #63797 on:
January 02, 2014, 09:44:20 PM »
Quote from: exstream on January 02, 2014, 09:41:53 PM
Quote from: BigAdz on January 02, 2014, 09:40:23 PM
Interesting stand out price tomorrow
Betbright 11-1 Stitch in Time 2.40 Muss
Rest of the bookies have 7-1 max, as low as
with Sid, and 12-1 on Betty for pennies, so not sure if qualifies as a palp?
No opinion on the race, but may interest some
Race which you have opinion on please
Worst days racing Ive seen all year tomorrow......
Logged
Good evenink. I wish I had a girlfriend.......
sonour
Hero Member
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Posts: 1665
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #63798 on:
January 02, 2014, 09:53:08 PM »
Hibs win 2-1
Thank you Kmac !
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Snowball
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Posts: 1455
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #63799 on:
January 02, 2014, 09:55:16 PM »
With the amount of chances Hibs had, over 3.5 wasn't far away.
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Omm
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Posts: 3228
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #63800 on:
January 02, 2014, 09:55:32 PM »
Quote from: sonour on January 02, 2014, 09:53:08 PM
Hibs win 2-1
Thank you Kmac !
Well done, a bit close for comfort but a result is a result.
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ripple11
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Posts: 6313
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #63801 on:
January 02, 2014, 09:56:07 PM »
Quote from: Omm on January 02, 2014, 09:55:32 PM
Quote from: sonour on January 02, 2014, 09:53:08 PM
Hibs win 2-1
Thank you Kmac !
Well done, a bit close for comfort but a result is a result.
thanks!
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JaffaCake
Hero Member
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Posts: 1884
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #63802 on:
January 02, 2014, 10:03:01 PM »
PP have an enhanced NBA bet tonight. Suns, Bulls, Heat and Kings all to win 7/2, best I can see is 4.24 elsewhere, so a smidge of value, should all win but ofc stranger things have happened
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maldini32
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Posts: 3356
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #63803 on:
January 02, 2014, 10:35:14 PM »
Not looking good for Nahki Wells bet.
http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/sport/10908244.I_don___t_want_to_play_waiting_game_over_Wells_in_transfer_window__says_Bradford_City_boss/
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maldini32
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Posts: 3356
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #63804 on:
January 02, 2014, 10:37:24 PM »
Tikay you need to get in touch with Bwin to cancel the Fiorentina to qualify for CL bet. It's top 2 only, very sneaky and misleading.
I've asked to cancel it and will be sticking it on the top 3 finish at 5/2. You've already got £50 which is ok.
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Kmac84
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Posts: 2122
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #63805 on:
January 02, 2014, 10:49:17 PM »
That game was harde for Hibs than it should have been finished at half time. Hibs were the more dominant team but they lacked composure in front of goal if they had Lee Griffiths in that team I think they would have scored 4 or 5 with the chances they created.
I think a striker will be on Terry's shopping list as soon as the window opens up. I wonder if Celtic would consider letting Tony Watt go there? Might be a good fit as he is not settling in Belgium.
«
Last Edit: January 02, 2014, 11:04:50 PM by Kmac84
»
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Ant040689
Probation
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Posts: 0
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #63806 on:
January 02, 2014, 11:20:07 PM »
Quote from: Tal on January 02, 2014, 09:38:53 AM
She's a patron of the National Trust and has a MPhil in Plant and Environmental Sciences from Warwick University.
I hope that you don't make such negative assumptions about people in future, even though I've just completely made that up.
Well this didn't get enough love, wp
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Tal
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Online
Posts: 24288
"He's always at it!"
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #63807 on:
January 03, 2014, 12:10:42 AM »
I can't find what I'm looking for, so I'll explain the outline of my thinking anyway, in case someone either knows something, where to find it or that I'm talking rubbish (BigAdz and JaffaCake need not apply)
Quote from: Tal on January 02, 2014, 09:05:12 PM
Does anyone have any statistics - or know where I can find them - about the NFL coaches' challenges? When the various teams have requested them, situation, level of success, that kind of thing?
Have been doing some digging into the maths behind it this evening. Some fascinating stuff.
So, for those who haven't seen much American Football, although there are lots of officials on the field, each of the two head coaches has the chance to ask for a play to be reviewed (two apiece, essentially like the DRS system in cricket, and a third if you get the first two correct). Not all plays are reviewable, but the coach throws a red flag on the field when he wants the officials to have a look at the replay.
Anyway, I've noticed that some of the bookies have markets on which coach will issue the first challenge and I was surprised that the odds are the same: 5/6 the pair.
Firstly, some coaches must be more trigger happy than others with their red flags. This is probably not much of a factor, but I'd be amazed if all of the coaches were equally likely to challenge a play in identical circumstances.
Secondly, I can't find any stats on what sort of plays get challenged by coaches. Instinctively, I would have thought it was running plays, where a player is inches from getting a first down in a mass of bodies and it isn't clear whether he's short or there. I know all Touchdown plays are automatically reviewed and the challenges for those are typically going to be questions of whether a receiver had full control of the ball. This led me here:
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2013/10/examining-value-of-coachs-challenges.html?m=1
Cliffs: challenges where the risk/reward gap is small (ie, where there's little difference whether you get it or not) have a much higher success rate than the higher profile, riskier challenges.
So, the 2nd and goal challenge where you're saying you got a touchdown but the refs say you were short has a decent chance of success statistically.( I expect these days someone has had a look at the video before the red flag is thrown)
To be challenging, the refs have to have ruled against you. It has been mentioned before that some refs favour the home side, I'm sure inadvertently. It's like getting a penalty at Old Trafford...
Don't you also get more plays if you run the ball a lot? The pay off is you don't get the quick yardage of the passing game. If you have 55% of plays, why wouldn't you have a theoretically greater chance of having the first review?
Ok, so say I am right - away sides might have more reason to challenge a ruling, running plays are more likely to be challenged and the teams who aren't likely to be throwing the ball near the end zone are probably more likely to have the close call play. Kansas City Chiefs only used Jamaal Charles 13 times when they last played the Colts in week 16. He will surely see the pigskin more, as long as he's fit. He put up good numbers nevertheless and has been one of the standout players of the league this year. It's not like no one knows he's good, but he's still had carries and great stats throughout the season.
Why wouldn't they be more likely to go for a coach's challenge first?
Ok. That's the sum total of an evening's work. Wasted without proper numbers, but I've done it now and it might be of ancillary use to someone else ITT. Must be a bet out there somewhere.
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"You must take your opponent into a deep, dark forest, where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one"
Longy
Professional Hotel Locator.
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Go Ducks!
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #63808 on:
January 03, 2014, 12:20:10 AM »
The reason those challenges have more success is that the coaches only challenge in clear cut situations. As sometimes you can't see where the player is down and the ball is with the mass of Bodies even with multiple angles, especially when talking inches instead of yards for incorrect spot.
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The Camel
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Posts: 17074
Under my tree, being a troll.
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #63809 on:
January 03, 2014, 12:20:49 AM »
Quote from: Tal on January 03, 2014, 12:10:42 AM
I can't find what I'm looking for, so I'll explain the outline of my thinking anyway, in case someone either knows something, where to find it or that I'm talking rubbish (BigAdz and JaffaCake need not apply)
Quote from: Tal on January 02, 2014, 09:05:12 PM
Does anyone have any statistics - or know where I can find them - about the NFL coaches' challenges? When the various teams have requested them, situation, level of success, that kind of thing?
Have been doing some digging into the maths behind it this evening. Some fascinating stuff.
So, for those who haven't seen much American Football, although there are lots of officials on the field, each of the two head coaches has the chance to ask for a play to be reviewed (two apiece, essentially like the DRS system in cricket, and a third if you get the first two correct). Not all plays are reviewable, but the coach throws a red flag on the field when he wants the officials to have a look at the replay.
Anyway, I've noticed that some of the bookies have markets on which coach will issue the first challenge and I was surprised that the odds are the same: 5/6 the pair.
Firstly, some coaches must be more trigger happy than others with their red flags. This is probably not much of a factor, but I'd be amazed if all of the coaches were equally likely to challenge a play in identical circumstances.
Secondly, I can't find any stats on what sort of plays get challenged by coaches. Instinctively, I would have thought it was running plays, where a player is inches from getting a first down in a mass of bodies and it isn't clear whether he's short or there. I know all Touchdown plays are automatically reviewed and the challenges for those are typically going to be questions of whether a receiver had full control of the ball. This led me here:
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2013/10/examining-value-of-coachs-challenges.html?m=1
Cliffs: challenges where the risk/reward gap is small (ie, where there's little difference whether you get it or not) have a much higher success rate than the higher profile, riskier challenges.
So, the 2nd and goal challenge where you're saying you got a touchdown but the refs say you were short has a decent chance of success statistically.( I expect these days someone has had a look at the video before the red flag is thrown)
To be challenging, the refs have to have ruled against you. It has been mentioned before that some refs favour the home side, I'm sure inadvertently. It's like getting a penalty at Old Trafford...
Don't you also get more plays if you run the ball a lot? The pay off is you don't get the quick yardage of the passing game. If you have 55% of plays, why wouldn't you have a theoretically greater chance of having the first review?
Ok, so say I am right - away sides might have more reason to challenge a ruling, running plays are more likely to be challenged and the teams who aren't likely to be throwing the ball near the end zone are probably more likely to have the close call play. Kansas City Chiefs only used Jamaal Charles 13 times when they last played the Colts in week 16. He will surely see the pigskin more, as long as he's fit. He put up good numbers nevertheless and has been one of the standout players of the league this year. It's not like no one knows he's good, but he's still had carries and great stats throughout the season.
Why wouldn't they be more likely to go for a coach's challenge first?
Ok. That's the sum total of an evening's work. Wasted without proper numbers, but I've done it now and it might be of ancillary use to someone else ITT. Must be a bet out there somewhere.
Good stuff
But I would guess (no info at hand) that most challenges are on passing plays. Whether a receiver made a clean catch or whether he got his feet in bounds stuff like that.
Challenges on where a runner got to are rarer because it is difficult to definitively say where a runner got to, because of bodies flying around mask where the ball is when the runner is downed
Also (and I stand to be corrected on this) I think you are mistaken about teams running the ball get more plays.
They have more time of possession, because the clock doesn't stop compared to an incomplete pass where it does stop. But I don't think they have more plays.
«
Last Edit: January 03, 2014, 12:22:25 AM by The Camel
»
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"Keith The Camel, a true champion!" - Brent Horner 30th December 2012
"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
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