Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Next 15 minutes you get 6/4 with Corals Free Thinking in the 2.40 Doncaster trading 2.08-2.1...Mobile and internet only and no idea if there is a max.

Thanks Neil.

The Advertised Maximum is £20.

They allowed me.........£2.

Err, Tiddlearse bet plsace, Frtee Thinking, 2.40 Donny, £2 @ 6/4.

I can barely await the result......


.40 Doncaster - (Free Thinking)6/4(Free Thinking) - 28/02/2014


Stake £2.00

Estimated Return:£5.00


BET PLACED

[tikay]

Sure De Grugy 3/1 Ladbrokes for next 8 mins
Champion Chase

Bugger, missed it, reverted to 5/4 now.

Thanks anyway.

[arbboy]

Firstly would like to thank Tighty for inviting me back to the forum after a near 4 year gap at DTD at the weekend.  After taking plenty from this thread in the past 2 years and not being able to give anything back apart from private skype discussions with redarmi/Mrs Bandit/Tighty

Interesting point for discussion here.

A lot has been spoken recently about the EPL outright market on this fred and it being perfectly formed etc etc 'all the info is out there' etc etc. Whilst i agree with that in most markets there are plenty of other factors which 'alter' these markets this time of the season and historically has always been a profitable way of punting for me over the years exploiting firms ante post positions in 'giving' away profits to green up on their ante post liabilities on teams they haven't laid 'to get a bit in the book' or 'it suits to lay' blah blah blah.

I think this season is even more likely than ever to provide these opportunities for the following reason.  Looking at how the 4 football league tables in england stand at the minute virtually every mug ew acca/yankee/lucky 15 that punters have placed at the start of the season on the ante post fav or 2nd fav is going to win at least the place part of the bet with some truely massive potential liabilities running up on the win parts of these bets.

EPL is obvious front two in the market ante post are sitting 1st and 2nd and Manchester Utd who were co favs of 3 when the betting opened drifted like a barge towards the start of the season as money poured in ew for arsenal and liverpool.

Championship the front two in the ante post market were qpr and leics.  Div 1 Wolves and brentford the same.  Div 2 Chesterfield and Scunthorpe the same.  Luton in the conference.  With the exception of qpr all of these teams are massively odds on to finish in the top 3 of their league so virtually every 'mug' ew acca/multiple bet will have already copped for the vast majority of customers for the place part of the bet.  The liabilities running onto the win parts of these bets could truely be huge and a lot of firms systems will not be able to compute the liabilities they actually face on these accurately.  I think the two key teams the layers will be wanting to get 'beat' will be QPR and Wolves who were both such solid favs for their division compared to their other rivals and will be the cornerstone of so many multis.  If they can get QPR out of the top 3 a lot of the place multiples will lose.

Its these types of situations which could easily give us the opportunity to find firms 'happy to lay' certain teams 'over the odds' up until the end of the season at bigger prices than they should be.  I think we should be actively looking at these markets over the next 2 months for these types of opportunities.

With that in mind the current EPL outright market and top 2 market looks quite out of line with expectations especially the liverpool and arsenal prices.  In the outright market Liverpool are 8.6-8.8 on bf arsenal are 9.0-9.2 on bf both obviously for decent money.  Both are 8/1 with the fixed odds firms if you shop around.  However in the top 2 market its somewhat different with arsenal a 2/1 shot and liverpool nearly a 4/1 shot on bf.  Surely these two markets are a function of each other and these differences should never be in place to this degree.  To add further data to the case sporting index have arsenals season points 2.5 points higher than liverpool.

Looking at the data above it would appear that either liverpool are a great lay at under 8/1 on bf in the outright market and/or arsenal are a great bet at 8/1 comm free with a selection of firms.  I am not entirely sure which gives us the biggest edge.  Happy to receive feedback from the elders on here but this market has to have value in it somewhere given these distortions.

Goal difference is obviously a factor in liverpool's favour but is never such an issue to have such a difference in the top 2 prices.  We can assume that sporting index's quotes will absorb all remaining fixture/scheduling differences between the two teams.

My recommendation is a £100 win bet on arsenal at 8/1 although i have backed arsenal personally and laid liverpool at 8.6 today i dont really want to open my account on the fred laying an ante post 8/1 shot.

Look forward to everyone's thoughts.

Morning Mr Arrboy.

Fred needed you, where have you been? Oh, wait......

Very much enjoyed that Post, & subsequent stuff, you will be a great asset to us I believe.

So, this Arsenal Bet. I followed the logic just fine, but I just have 2 questions.

1) Is this an outright bet purely on price, or is there a potential trade down the line?

2) We already have £60 @ 15/8 for Arsenal to finish Top Three. Presumably, both bets can work OK independently if they are, or were, value?

I'm quite happy to climb aboard as suggested, but just need to learn how to tell my arse from my elbow first.   

Answers to Questions

1) This is an outright bet purely based on price/logic given the data presented.  I don't have any view that arsenal 'are certs' to win the EPL this year etc etc.  I don't operate like that.  They should be shorter than Liverpool by all known data in the market place and they are not therefore it is a bet.  There is always the potential to trade down the line with any bet but i am firmly in the camel/grumpy camp that this should always be done independently and treated totally as a separate bet and the previous bet ignored.  Although i appreciate that Mrs Bandit/Chompy often back something for way more than it is comfortable bankroll wise and lay it shorter at the same time on the machine if possible to actually get an even better price for their bet for the stakes the bankroll is comfortable with.  I am all for doing that option if and when it is available but that is not available in this case as arsenal are the same price on the exchanges as they are with the fixed odds firms.

2) This is an issue to some degree as you cant keep piling into bets which are related with unlimited funds when you work on a fixed bankroll.  However i don't see this as an issue in this case.  As most people who know me will tell you i am a bankroll nit when it comes to staking etc i always go on the side of caution however a lot of the stuff i do will be at odds on and quite often big odds on which might seem high risk but as long as the margin is there i never worry about whether something is 1/100 or 100/1.

With this in mind i would really like to recommend laying Liverpool at 8.4 to win £25 on bf with a liability of £185 (they have contracted further overnight in the outright market from 8.8 to 8.4 for no known reason) however i appreciate this ties up significant working capital over an extended period including Cheltenham so i will recommend avoiding this unless the bankroll going forward medium term can afford this amount of cash tied up for up to 10 weeks (the market on bf will be settled as soon as its mathematically certain that Liverpool can't win the league)

Good work, thank you, & that all makes sense, even to me.

Especially pleased to see you use the name grumpy for one of our Elders.

I don't have a problem tying thast cash up for 10 weeks (probably a little less, in fact......) so I think that may be the way to go.

Liverpool are currently 8.6 to Lay, should I insert 8.4 & wait to see if we get Matched? Pardon my ignorance on Betty, which I find a bit confusing.

Yes i would insert 8.4 for £25 and it would get matched within 24 hours given there is only £400 waiting at 8.4.  There is no rush to get matched as there are no games until Saturday.  Take the 8/1 win on arsenal with victor and/or paddy to avoid paying commission on the bet.

OK, I'm all set to do this.

Just to confirm I've got this right, you are suggesting......

£25 LAY of Liverpool @ 8.4 (liability £185), & £100 WIN Arsenal, with the Bookies, @ 8/1?

Yes all good to go

[Rubbish2407]

He bowled a wide in between and they ran.

Nope, he's only bowled two balls and they've both scored four?

Forgot to give Horsey a shout out for his photo of Luke Shaw, cheers Bud. If anybody has any photos they want to see in the gallery but don't want to put them up themselves drop me a pm.

[TightEnd]

http://www.cricket365.com/basket/12130/story/9189394/Third-Test-preview-South-Africa-v-Australia

The salient points of this are

- Ryan Harris is nicked up, and might bowl less overs

" if Ryan Harris does indeed play. The paceman is a doubt as his knee surgery is looming, and he's been on the park for most of the past 12 Tests. He said he felt like a 'bowling machine' in PE, so he'll likely get less overs if he does play. "

- Shane Watson is expected to play, so will bowl the shortfall

"The Aussies, according to Shane Warne, will be relying on Nathan Lyon's spin, and on the evidence presented in PE, that's not a bad assumption. He took a five-fer on a track with no turn, so it will be interesting to see what he does on one that spins. "



This is probably misguided, but I haven't felt as strong as this about a cricket bet for ages. One of the reasons for this is that the market is skewed by Johnson being such a short favourite. Yet the pitch shouldn't suit him. Twitter was awash (if you follow Southern Hemisphere cricket correspondents) yesterday with pictures of the groundsman shaving it really close with a mower so as to neutralise him (their top gun Dale Steyn would bowl well on a piece of lino wearing roller skates)....***

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/south-africa-v-australia/test-series/south-africa-v-australia-%5B3rd-test%5D/top-australia-bowler

Anyway Lyon is still fourth in the betting behind Johnson, Siddle and whichever of Harris/Pattinson and Bird plays

Particularly if Australia win the toss and bat, so Lyon bowls in the second innings with hopefully a day and half of wear on the pitch, I will be doing betting slip cartwheels


*** Win the toss and bat...the team doing this should be odds on. Australia are currently 11/5. For real punters.

[JaffaCake]

He bowled a wide in between and they ran.

Nope, he's only bowled two balls and they've both scored four?

Forgot to give Horsey a shout out for his photo of Luke Shaw, cheers Bud. If anybody has any photos they want to see in the gallery but don't want to put them up themselves drop me a pm.

He's finishing the over for someone, probably Simon Jones, pulling up inured

[TightEnd]

Meanwhile at the soulless North Sound in Antigua, England opened with three spinners and the part timer Moeen Ali was turning it with the new ball

WI have recovered to 77-4

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/cricket/26342733

England went 2-7 favourites for the game

The interesting one here is that England also struggle to play spin

If West Indies can put 250+ up, a big if, then their (very good, as he has a doosra which we can't pick) very good spinner Sunil narine should be top WI wicket taker

WI will give you 7/4 which is very fair. Their only spinner, none of the other bowlers are huge ODI wicket-takers

You might like to wait for WI to recover a bit further though, so Narine might bowl 10 overs.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/west-indies-v-england/odi-series/west-indies-v-england-%5B1st-odi%5D/top-west-indies-bowler

[TightEnd]

Swansea got back from Napoli last night, late

On Sunday they play Crystal Palace who, mostly at Selhurst Park admittedly, have 19 points from 21 against bottom half sides under Pulis

In seven Sunday matches after Thursday Europa League matches, Swansea (who started in it in August) have three points, total

Crystal Palace can be backed at 4-1 on Sunday

Regards

War ant Peace mark 2

[Ant040689]

Swansea got back from Napoli last night, late

On Sunday they play Crystal Palace who, mostly at Selhurst Park admittedly, have 19 points from 21 against bottom half sides under Pulis

In seven Sunday matches after Thursday Europa League matches, Swansea (who started in it in August) have three points, total

Crystal Palace can be backed at 4-1 on Sunday

Regards

War ant Peace mark 2

lol, so when i get quiet it turns out you're the mad Palace fan?

[TightEnd]

Two more for discussion (I don't want you to do all of these tikay, pick and choose in light of feedback!)


1 Loic Remy 7/1 FGS BetV at Hull on Saturday. Newcastle had a very bad run without Cabaye for good and Remy, Tiote and Coloccini temporarily, they then won at the death at home to Villa. Remy has 12 league goals, and admittedly only from highlights I see, seems to give Newcastle a focal point they lack when he is not playing 

You could pair with Shane Long also at 7/1 if you want to be "team neutral"

I had both at 5-1/11-2 in my notes before I looked


2 over 3.5 goals: This has occurred in six of Liverpool’s last seven league games and four of Southampton’s last seven. BetVictor offer 31/20 about Over 3.5 goals in the game.  Liverpool obviously have Sturridge firing, and Gerrard, Sterling, Henderson chipping in, though Suarez has gone dry. At the same time though, they've been defending poorly, from what I can see. Southampton at home put two past Arsenal two games ago, a couple on Stoke last time out at home, more expectedly, and have goals throughout the front 5

[TightEnd]

Swansea got back from Napoli last night, late

On Sunday they play Crystal Palace who, mostly at Selhurst Park admittedly, have 19 points from 21 against bottom half sides under Pulis

In seven Sunday matches after Thursday Europa League matches, Swansea (who started in it in August) have three points, total

Crystal Palace can be backed at 4-1 on Sunday

Regards

War ant Peace mark 2

lol, so when i get quiet it turns out you're the mad Palace fan?

Hope I copied your PM out ok, Ant.

but seriously, I couldn't have Palace at 4-1 at Swansea. However I couldn't have them at 11-2 last week. Perhaps I am just confirming recent biases in suggested bets too late, after their run has reversed.

[Bad Beat]

Like the Remy bet. I've backed him a fair bit this season. Certainly wouldn't lay the Palace bet, probably a smidge of value.

[TightEnd]

A measure of the challenge Red Bull are facing

Click to see full-size image.

Renault are trying hard to get an extension on the development deadline of the new engines (due to stop at the end of this test) because they are so far behind the curve

The problem is this needs unanimous agreement on the change from all other teams

[Doobs]

Sure De Grugy 3/1 Ladbrokes for next 8 mins
Champion Chase

Bugger, missed it, reverted to 5/4 now.

Thanks anyway.

You are on 10% and don't get offers?

[Ant040689]

Swansea got back from Napoli last night, late

On Sunday they play Crystal Palace who, mostly at Selhurst Park admittedly, have 19 points from 21 against bottom half sides under Pulis

In seven Sunday matches after Thursday Europa League matches, Swansea (who started in it in August) have three points, total

Crystal Palace can be backed at 4-1 on Sunday

Regards

War ant Peace mark 2

lol, so when i get quiet it turns out you're the mad Palace fan?

Hope I copied your PM out ok, Ant.

but seriously, I couldn't have Palace at 4-1 at Swansea. However I couldn't have them at 11-2 last week. Perhaps I am just confirming recent biases in suggested bets too late, after their run has reversed.

Honestly, I am not feeling it at the moment in the same way I was before the signings came in. 4/1 seems large especially as Swansea would be playing their 6th game in 19 days compared to Palace's 4th. However, I am not as overly confident as I would have been before we got the 4 signings. A lot of change. We do not look as defensively sound at all, in our last two games that is. Something about dropping Gabbidon for Dann doesn't sit well, and I think Ledley was at fault for not marking Rooney for his second on the weekend. Also Murray was very quiet and met my low expectations. Jerome came on and looked much more lively and he works better chasing the ball down than Murray.

The new guys probably need time to settle, but it could be costing us points. I hope Pulis gets the team back to the solid looking ways. Pretty harsh I know considering the game before Man U was a 3-1 win against WBA but that could have been a draw easily.

But perhaps for our lack in defensive strength now we will make up for in attack, and yes we did poorly against Man U, but against WBA we looked capable going forward and perhaps against oppo around us in the table, like Swansea, we may be open to scoring more goals, especially with the threat of Ince. I think I would be annoyed to see Murray start on Sunday though and may well wait to bet until I see his name omitted and Jerome's in, on the teamsheet. So harsh of me, and I hope he makes me look the fool by the end of the season if he gets the chance to.

My flawed opinion is wait to see if Jerome starts in place of Murray, if that is the case then I think anything down to 7/2 is a bet.