Tips for Tikay

[Waz1892]

quickly lay all man city upcoming games, kompany just got red card and lescott and demicawful are both terrible.

He only misses one game I think, home to Fulham

Checked on fa site. You're correct. 1 for goal scoring chance, 3 for serious foul play or violent conduct. 

[tikay]

Ulul whoever is was that needed Katgary.

Think we need to be snapping up 10-1 Lewis Hamilton for SPOTY, as recced by someone earlier?

I don't really agree with this

think I prefer Rory at 16/1, four majors and a Glenegles ryder cup to go at

Rory is popular, and Lewis very marmite. Didn't win it in 2008 when he won an exciting championship, all on terrestial tv.....

Long time Lurker, first time poster (hate that its to do with SPOTY).  

Lewis only lost it in 08 because the Sir Chris of Hoy got 3 golds in Beijing (first time for a Brit to get 3 Golds in 1 Olympics), looking at previous F1 contenders for SPOTY and you see that Button(09) lost out to Ryan Giggs when he had what most thought would be his last season in the prem league (and so a massive crowd favourite).  Before that then you have Lewis again in 07 when he came close but was pipped to the championship by the alcoholic Finn.  Going back further and we start talking about Hill, Mansell and Stewart, all of which won it.

Rory looked vulnerable the other week when massively clear and he clutched defeat from the jaws of victory.

Unless we win the World Cup, I don't see anyone else winning SPOTY this year.

Plus, I'm pretty sure I saw Lewis at 20/1 e/w 1,2,3 in the laddies shop today.

Hello Mr Long Time Lurker, sorry about the delay in getting organised.

You sparked quite a SPOTY debate, mainly around Boxers, which continues, & we may yet do the Boxer bloke, I don't know.

However....for now, you are a newbie Poster here, & so in line with Fred tradition, we will be doing (have done) Mardyarse Lewis for SPOTY. I have no idea if he reps value, but as you will see, he might just be.

I missed 10/1, but Ladbrokes are a standout 9/1 right now, with most going 6/1, see.....


http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/sports-personality-of-the-year/winner


So we might just have some value here. Additionally, by this time tomorrow, he could just as easily be 9/2, or 12/1. More likely the former, I'd say, so we have to make our move now.

We were Restricted to £11.11, & I had £10, for simplicity of numbers, but that's fine I think.

We have £10 @ 9/1, MardyArse Lewis, SPOTY, Ladbrokes, bunnydas8888


2014 BBC Sports Personality of the Year
BBC Sports Personality
2014-12-15 20:00:00
 
Market: Award Winner  
 
Selection: Lewis Hamilton @ 9/1  
 
Receipt No.: O/142640973/0000566
 
Placed at: 13:36 15/03/2014
Stake Per Line: £10.00
 


BET PLACED

[pleno1]

but isnt it all about the price? the price wont have altered yet, but it should definitely be? Fulham could beat Newcastle today, be on good form etc.

[redarmi]

but isnt it all about the price? the price wont have altered yet, but it should definitely be? Fulham could beat Newcastle today, be on good form etc.

Yeah but given the margin inherent he is going to have to make a 7-8% difference to their chances of winning just for you to have a breakeven proposition.   There are some players that have that kind of difference but not many (Kompany may be one to be fair) Also it is hard to find prices for upcoming games to any decent money at this stage.  At the moment the Betfair market has very little liquidity for next weeks games (only just over a ton matched so far).  Beyond that there is basically no market and certainly not for any money.

[Chompy]

Laddies 0808 100 1124. Much better off ringing them.

[aaron1867]

I don't use Betfair, so I am sure people will be able to answer this for me, whether price is still available on there, but Blades are best priced 5/1 to beat Hull in the Fa Cup, whilst just on Betfair they are 17/2 to make the final, not sure what situation is there

[Marky147]

I don't use Betfair, so I am sure people will be able to answer this for me, whether price is still available on there, but Blades are best priced 5/1 to beat Hull in the Fa Cup, whilst just on Betfair they are 17/2 to make the final, not sure what situation is there

Don't you use Oddschecker?



http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/fa-cup/to-reach-final

[tikay]

I don't use Betfair, so I am sure people will be able to answer this for me, whether price is still available on there, but Blades are best priced 5/1 to beat Hull in the Fa Cup, whilst just on Betfair they are 17/2 to make the final, not sure what situation is there

I would imagine the 5/1 is for 90 minutes - a different thing to reaching the Final.

[tikay]

Laddies 0808 100 1124. Much better off ringing them.

Bugger, forgot that.

I'll save the number in my smartphone.*

* How do I do that?

[Waz1892]

Laddies 0808 100 1124. Much better off ringing them.

Bugger, forgot that.

I'll save the number in my smartphone.*

* How do I do that?

Press and hold the number. Option should appear " add to contacts"

[Marky147]

I don't use Betfair, so I am sure people will be able to answer this for me, whether price is still available on there, but Blades are best priced 5/1 to beat Hull in the Fa Cup, whilst just on Betfair they are 17/2 to make the final, not sure what situation is there

I would imagine the 5/1 is for 90 minutes - a different thing to reaching the Final.

Yeah, so they should be shorter is what Aaron means.

@ Aaron

I just had a look, and it's a non liquid market - last price matched 3.2

[horseplayer]

Demichelis superb there

Experienced defender played for lots of good clubs in being not the worst player ever seen shocker

[tikay]

Not had a chance to look at this thread for a couple of weeks so not sure if there has been any mention of the T20 world cup yet.

For what it's worth the only 2 teams I could back at the current prices are Sri Lanka at 7/1 (/BetSafe) and Pakistan at 17/2 (Matchbook). 

Australia deserve to be favourites, and whilst I wouldn't lay them at 7/2, it's hard to see much value at that price. 

No idea why India are 4/1 at most places, you could double that and it wouldn't be much more than half-decent value IMO.  The fact that they are highest priced on the exchanges shows there are others who share my view and willing to lay them at 6's.  They are still part way through rebuilding their team and the recent results have been poor.  Their death bowling is a big weakness and they have the same problem as England in that they don't have anything like a settled team.  They might gel during the tournament but there have been no signs so far and the fact they are significantly shorter than Pakistan and SL is ridiculous.  I'll be looking for various spots to lay them during the world cup

Aside from the 7 over game the other night, I haven't watched South Africa in a T20 for a while to be honest.  Looking over their recent results and the squad you would think they have a great chance but we all know their record in the sub-continent is poor.  I won't be backing them at 15/2

In the last year the West Indies have played 9 T20s (against relatively weak opposition - Ireland, NZ, Pakistan and England) and only won 3 of them.  They didn't field their best team in any of them but I've not been convinced by them in this recent series.  If a team gets hold of Narine and/or gets Gayle out early then they are there for the taking.  Hard to see any value at 8/1.

Anyone else, including NZ and England, have little to no chance.  The fact both those teams are only priced slightly higher than Pakistan and Sri Lanka is bizarre.  New Zealand have an awful record on these tracks and England's isn't much better.  I guess at least NZ are in good form - a semi final spot wouldn't surprise me but winning it certainly would!

That leaves Pakistan and Sri Lanka.  Aside from being able to build good totals on subcontinent tracks, they have have the added bonus of having the best 2 bowling attacks to exploit the teams who can't play spin.  Unlike India, they have pace bowlers who can back them up without going round the park.  I was expecting to see Sri Lanka around 9/2 and Pakistan 11/2 to be honest, so either I've got my numbers very wrong or the bookies do. 

Not sure if Tighty has already done a write up already, if so it will probably be better than this!  If not and you are looking for a bit of action on the tournament winner then my suggestion is Sri Lanka or Pakistan

Welcome back Gherkin, where have you been?

Sorry for the delayed reply, been a bit of a week.......

I know Tighty has some views on the T20WC, and we might back more Teams yet, but for now, thank you, & we've had £25 on both.

£25 @ 6/1, Sri Lanka, T20WC, BetFred. (Missed a bit of price, but gained a bit on Pakistan).

£25 @ 8/1, Pakistan, T20WC, Wm Hill.


Bet placed, its reference is 303/329
 
Bet ref: 303/329 £25.00 Single


Twenty20 World Cup 2014
Outright Winner


Sri Lanka

6/1

Estimated return

£ 175.00


Full stake

£ 25.00

Full estimated return

£ 175.00--

15 Mar 14 / 14:43

Stake

ICC World Twenty20 2014 - Outright – Pakistan @ 8/1

- £25.00

O/0457483/0000884/F


2 BETS PLACED

[tikay]

Sorry if I've missed anything today.

I'm having a bit of a Fred-rest today, as it's been quite an up & down week, one way & another, (away from Fred), & so I'm sorting out some non-Fred stuff today.

Think Fred put on nearly 100 pages this week, but mostly great fun. Shame I missed confirming a few bets, that cost Fred dearly.

If anything urgent comes up today, (before 6pm) I should be able to action it.

Normal ("I fell asleep, sorry") service resumes tomorrow, all being well.

Enjoy your Saturday, & punish them.

[tikay]

OOh, alarms set for 5am tomorrow, to watch the Grand Prix. We have a good bit resting on that.

What time does the race actually start, anyone know?