Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

depending on your views on the 240 chelt Scud looks a big price at 8/1 to be top jockey at ladbrokes. His key mount of the day is currently a heavily backed 3/1 poke for the 240.  If that wins ruby's most likely winner of the day obviously won't win.   recommend £25 at 8/1 on ladbrokes.  People are asking for under 8/1 on a not tight bf market.

Walsh out for the rest of the day

You've had a result there (assuming he ends up ok) arbboy

Cracking lay now on bf.  maximum lay for me for the thread.  Ruby Walsh to be top festival jockey.  Only way he can be beat is if Scu or Bazza get a win today (or johnson wins 2 or ap wins 3 - these are unlikely so we will exclude them from calcs)

So if we add up % chance of all scu an Bazza rides for the rest of the day to win it comes to 91% which makes them a 1/10 shot to win (ie Ruby 10/1 shot to win) u can currently lay under 4/1 for decent money.  I have already laid a monkey udner 4/1 in last 10 mins.  Suggest thread puts up asap £200 at 5/2 on bf and see if you get matched before the 240pm chelt race.  If not take it down as the price changes massively in the 240pm race.

To put it in simple terms we are getting around 2/5 about a 1/10 shot if we get matched prior to 2.40pm

Are you absolutely sure? you should be multiplying not to win for each race not adding up horses to win.

bobs worth (36%) and kings palace (27%) are nearly a 1/2 shot alone without adding all the other % of their other rides in all the other races.  Pretty sure i haven't made a mistake here.

[arbboy]

depending on your views on the 240 chelt Scud looks a big price at 8/1 to be top jockey at ladbrokes. His key mount of the day is currently a heavily backed 3/1 poke for the 240.  If that wins ruby's most likely winner of the day obviously won't win.   recommend £25 at 8/1 on ladbrokes.  People are asking for under 8/1 on a not tight bf market.

Walsh out for the rest of the day

You've had a result there (assuming he ends up ok) arbboy

Cracking lay now on bf.  maximum lay for me for the thread.  Ruby Walsh to be top festival jockey.  Only way he can be beat is if Scu or Bazza get a win today (or johnson wins 2 or ap wins 3 - these are unlikely so we will exclude them from calcs)

So if we add up % chance of all scu an Bazza rides for the rest of the day to win it comes to 91% which makes them a 1/10 shot to win (ie Ruby 10/1 shot to win) u can currently lay under 4/1 for decent money.  I have already laid a monkey udner 4/1 in last 10 mins.  Suggest thread puts up asap £200 at 5/2 on bf and see if you get matched before the 240pm chelt race.  If not take it down as the price changes massively in the 240pm race.

To put it in simple terms we are getting around 2/5 about a 1/10 shot if we get matched prior to 2.40pm

Are you absolutely sure? you should be multiplying not to win for each race not adding up horses to win.

bobs worth (36%) and kings palace (27%) are nearly a 1/2 shot alone without adding all the other % of their other rides in all the other races.  Pretty sure i haven't made a mistake here.

[arbboy]

depending on your views on the 240 chelt Scud looks a big price at 8/1 to be top jockey at ladbrokes. His key mount of the day is currently a heavily backed 3/1 poke for the 240.  If that wins ruby's most likely winner of the day obviously won't win.   recommend £25 at 8/1 on ladbrokes.  People are asking for under 8/1 on a not tight bf market.

Walsh out for the rest of the day

You've had a result there (assuming he ends up ok) arbboy

Cracking lay now on bf.  maximum lay for me for the thread.  Ruby Walsh to be top festival jockey.  Only way he can be beat is if Scu or Bazza get a win today (or johnson wins 2 or ap wins 3 - these are unlikely so we will exclude them from calcs)

So if we add up % chance of all scu an Bazza rides for the rest of the day to win it comes to 91% which makes them a 1/10 shot to win (ie Ruby 10/1 shot to win) u can currently lay under 4/1 for decent money.  I have already laid a monkey udner 4/1 in last 10 mins.  Suggest thread puts up asap £200 at 5/2 on bf and see if you get matched before the 240pm chelt race.  If not take it down as the price changes massively in the 240pm race.

To put it in simple terms we are getting around 2/5 about a 1/10 shot if we get matched prior to 2.40pm

Are you absolutely sure? you should be multiplying not to win for each race not adding up horses to win.

bobs worth (36%) and kings palace (27%) are nearly a 1/2 shot alone without adding all the other % of their other rides in all the other races.  Pretty sure i haven't made a mistake here.

240 Kings palace 28% Apache 2.5%

320 bobs 36% the gaint 6.5%

515 tanks 6.5% his excell 4.5%

This comes to 84% (it was 90% prior to the 205 race when they had 7% coupled which lost) plus u have to add the % chance of johnson having 2 winners as well.  Its not a 1/10 shot now (it was pre 205pm when i laid it) but its still great value laying 5/2 ruby on roughly a 1/7 shot now

[Doobs]

depending on your views on the 240 chelt Scud looks a big price at 8/1 to be top jockey at ladbrokes. His key mount of the day is currently a heavily backed 3/1 poke for the 240.  If that wins ruby's most likely winner of the day obviously won't win.   recommend £25 at 8/1 on ladbrokes.  People are asking for under 8/1 on a not tight bf market.

Walsh out for the rest of the day

You've had a result there (assuming he ends up ok) arbboy

Cracking lay now on bf.  maximum lay for me for the thread.  Ruby Walsh to be top festival jockey.  Only way he can be beat is if Scu or Bazza get a win today (or johnson wins 2 or ap wins 3 - these are unlikely so we will exclude them from calcs)

So if we add up % chance of all scu an Bazza rides for the rest of the day to win it comes to 91% which makes them a 1/10 shot to win (ie Ruby 10/1 shot to win) u can currently lay under 4/1 for decent money.  I have already laid a monkey udner 4/1 in last 10 mins.  Suggest thread puts up asap £200 at 5/2 on bf and see if you get matched before the 240pm chelt race.  If not take it down as the price changes massively in the 240pm race.

To put it in simple terms we are getting around 2/5 about a 1/10 shot if we get matched prior to 2.40pm

Are you absolutely sure? you should be multiplying not to win for each race not adding up horses to win.

bobs worth (36%) and kings palace (27%) are nearly a 1/2 shot alone without adding all the other % of their other rides in all the other races.  Pretty sure i haven't made a mistake here.

0.64x0.73 = .4672 closer to evens than 1/2.  It is wrong, trust me.

[arbboy]

rep in tatters.  Fucked up.  Run good one time please!!!!

[tikay]

rep in tatters.  Fucked up.  Run good one time please!!!!

Welcome to the exclusive Misclick Club. It's been lonely, about time I had some company.

Hope you get out of it unscathed. I usually do.

[arbboy]

at least we got the 'right' price and have just bought some variance for the afternoon for a bit of interest!!!  Using my one time to escape.

[rfgqqabc]

Red Bull drifted a lot in the F1 to not finish market. The Lotus prices have come in massively. I went in when they first went up, and back in yesterday @ ~4/6 so eating value pie tonight. General consensus on Vettel and Riccardo now?

[arbboy]

rep in tatters.  Fucked up.  Run good one time please!!!!

Welcome to the exclusive Misclick Club. It's been lonely, about time I had some company.

Hope you get out of it unscathed. I usually do.

i usually don't !!!!!!!  

[Karabiner]

rep in tatters.  Fucked up.  Run good one time please!!!!

Welcome to the exclusive Misclick Club. It's been lonely, about time I had some company.

Hope you get out of it unscathed. I usually do.

You've had plenty of company but we, I mean they don't all own up.

[Doobs]

rep in tatters.  Fucked up.  Run good one time please!!!!

Welcome to the exclusive Misclick Club. It's been lonely, about time I had some company.

Hope you get out of it unscathed. I usually do.

i usually don't !!!!!!!  

we've all been there.  My favourite was coming across a race market in the early days of Betfair where a few of the horses looked way too short.  Had done a lot of laying before realising i'd been crushing the place market.

[arbboy]

there was decent money (not mine) done at 8/1 9/1 after his fall so i just assumed my original (rushed) thinking was correct when the price started falling.  Many thanks for the maths experts for stepping in and correcting me.

[arbboy]

there was decent money (not mine) done at 8/1 9/1 after his fall so i just assumed my original (rushed) thinking was correct when the price started falling.  Many thanks for the maths experts for stepping in and correcting me.

richard johnson double would do and be a very sick way to dodge a bullet or an AP treble!!!!

[TightEnd]

Red Bull drifted a lot in the F1 to not finish market. The Lotus prices have come in massively. I went in when they first went up, and back in yesterday @ ~4/6 so eating value pie tonight. General consensus on Vettel and Riccardo now?

i think we posted the consensus

surprising pace in the the first free practices, made a lot of progress since testing

still a way behind mercedes

possible an overheating problem on the longer run, so some issues may persist

if their rate of progress is maintained (early days) 7/2 vettel for the WDC is massive

but who can tell?

[arbboy]

there was decent money (not mine) done at 8/1 9/1 after his fall so i just assumed my original (rushed) thinking was correct when the price started falling.  Many thanks for the maths experts for stepping in and correcting me.

richard johnson double would do and be a very sick way to dodge a bullet or an AP treble!!!!

FML barry and scu go 8/11 and 6/4 in running in the last and both get beat