The
T20 World Cup Qualifying Rounds have begun today in Bangladesh
Afghanistan are playing the hosts
The key point here is the pitch is slow, low and there was spin from the first ball. This is the pitch England play on in the first game against New Zealand next Saturday. markets haven't formed yet but it is EXACTLY the sort of pitch that does not suit us and we do not have the slow bowling to be competitive in the playing conditions in this world Cup. I will be looking to oppose in that first game if we can get Evens+ NZ
We have positions on NZ, Pak and SL to win, and I don't propose adding more (though I really like WI at 8/1)
The sub-markets are mouth-watering though, and would like to propose a portfolio of positions for "value", trying to oppose well known favourites in many cases which will be over-bet by the armchair supporter and priced up by the odds-setter..
what are we looking for?
- Batsmen who can clear the ropes, and score independently of relying on a quick pitch (we aren't going to see them) or pace on the ball (teams are not going to offer it, much)
- Slow bowlers who are under-exposed in markets, and preferably spin it a lot
- Assuming where they can teams will open with wrist spin, and early wickets against openers not used to facing it are a theme, is there any value lower down the order?
- teams that are not in their usual conditions, and therefore more inefficiently priced. Therefore not India/Pak/SL.
In no particular order
- AustraliaNo bowling bet, their weakness is the absence of convincing spin
They do have the best batting line up in the competition though for T20. Warner, Finch, White, Bailey, Maxwell, Hodge has serious poke
This is why they are 3/1 favourites for the tournament. This is priced in though, no value in a randomising format
the batting market has Warner 2/1, Finch 11/4 (William Hill). Warner is no value, Finch better value. Essentially the same player at nearly 1.5 x the price
The inefficient price might be Brad Hodge 14-1 Sportingbet, a big hitting finisher.
Recommendations
Aaron Finch £20 top Australian batsman Wlliam Hill
Brad Hodge £5 top Australian batsman Sportingbet
England
Same as in West Indies, in theory
No convincing spin options on slow pitches
Early batsmen can't play spin
This puts 5,6,7 in for more overs than the prices suggest
I think they are unlikely to get through the group
BUT the group only has Sri Lanka of the Asian teams, NZ and SA are far more reasonable opponents in unusual conditions
Sportingbet offer us 12/1 Buttler and 16/1 Bopara Both are bets, £10 each
IrelandThe Ireland top 5 have 3 accumulators (Porterfield, Joyce, Wilson) and two biffers (Stirling and kevin o'brien). We can get Kevin O'Brien, a proper destructive batsman who wins games at twice the price we can Stirling. A must bet, especially as the later order guys often get a lot of overs to bat (early wickets)
8/1 Stan James is a bet if you can get it, 7/1 Ladbrokes if you have to: Kevin O'Brien Top Ireland batsmanhttp://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/t20-world-cup/ireland/top-batsmanSouth AfricaThe batsman market for this is interested because the brilliant Amla is priced at 5/2 favourite, yet it is my contention that by often scoring at less than a run a ball in T20 opening he loses games for SA as often as wins them.
This pushes out AB DeVilliers probably a top 5 batsman in the whole tournnament in this format out to 9/2 with Sportingbet, Faf Du Plessis, batting in the top 4 and captain, out to 6/1 with Betfred and the destructive finisher David Miller out to 17/2. I think the winner is one of these three, the lowest variance choice is
Recommendation ABdeV £20 Top South frican batsman 9/2 Sportingbet
West IndiesI said a couple of days ago I think they are a real threat in this
All sorts of big hitters, two top quality wrist spinners, great fielders.
Their achilles heel? game craft, brains
Anyway the bookies aren't going to take any chances with Chris Gayle, 2/1 top batsman. that however gives us the powerful Lendl Smmons, batting 4 or 5 at 8-1 with Stan James. A best of 5/1 elsewhere this is one of the bets of the tournament. Someone get on for tikay
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Recommendation Lendl Smmons 8/1 Stan James Top WI BatThe bowling market is also wrong. Narine is well known by odds-setters and installed at 13/8 but the batsmen know him too. The one with more mystery, who the Eglish found very tough to play and is far less exposed is Badree at 9/2 betvictor. Will play everygame, might open the bowling, genuine value in a virtual match with Narine
Recommendation Samuel Badree 9/2 BetVictor Top WI BowlerBecause I think the WI could go a long way in this, there is also another key inefficiency in the market
http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/t20-world-cup/twenty20-world-cup/top-bowler Narine is priced at 6/1 favourite!
Badree, who as you can tell I rate in these conditions, is out at 40-1. Essentially the same bowler, one more experienced than the other
http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/t20-world-cup/twenty20-world-cup/top-bowlerRecommendation £5 Samuel Badree 40-1 Bet Victor Top T20 World Cup BowlerSummaryAaron Finch £20 11/4 top Australian batsman William Hill
Brad Hodge £5 14/1 top Australian batsman Sportingbet
Jos Buttler £10 12/1 Top England bat Sportingbet
Ravi Bopara £10 16/1 Top England bat Sportingbet
ABdeVilliers £20 Top South African batsman 9/2 Sportingbet
Kevin O'Brien £30 Top Ireland batsman 7/1 Ladbrokes
Lendl Smmons £20 8/1 Stan James Top WI Bat
Samuel Badree £20 9/2 BetVictor Top WI Bowler
Samuel Badree £5 40-1 Bet Victor Top T20 World Cup Bowler
thats £140. if too much my three naps for value are:
Badree at 9/2, Kevin O'Brien at 7/1, Finch 11/4 which as recommended would cost £70
That is a cracking piece of work, Tighty, well done. As the T20 progresses, I'll keep looking back at it.
I particularly enjoyed.....
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