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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13334014 times)
TightEnd
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« Reply #71175 on: March 14, 2014, 01:41:50 PM »

outstanding

1. Last one on Hills us good.  Last Installment at 9/1.  If Tighty has doubts on the first two, then each way is good too.  Also helps if win and place beats Betfair.  Suggest 25 each way.

2. Royal Irish Hussar in the first 7/1 in the first with b365.  Just beats Betfair, and we get free bet if it wins in next race.  Marginsl, but think it is worth a swift £25 too.  Guess we won't get £25 though

3. On The Fringe 5/1 4pm with Hills.  Use your mobile for free bet for 2nd.


to save tikay time

1 is about to run out of time
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« Reply #71176 on: March 14, 2014, 01:52:36 PM »

outstanding

1. Last one on Hills us good.  Last Installment at 9/1.  If Tighty has doubts on the first two, then each way is good too.  Also helps if win and place beats Betfair.  Suggest 25 each way.

2. Royal Irish Hussar in the first 7/1 in the first with b365.  Just beats Betfair, and we get free bet if it wins in next race.  Marginsl, but think it is worth a swift £25 too.  Guess we won't get £25 though

3. On The Fringe 5/1 4pm with Hills.  Use your mobile for free bet for 2nd.


to save tikay time

1 is about to run out of time

Ran good on that one, started 11/2 though.

Fairly sure prices have gone on the others.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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« Reply #71177 on: March 14, 2014, 01:53:35 PM »

Cheltenham 2014

Day Four Result -£50

Race One -£50 (Plinth)
Race Two
Race Three
Race Four
Race Five
Race Six
Race Seven

Day Three Result -£9.07

Day Two result +160.18
Day One Result -203.89

Cumulative Cheltenham Result -£102.78

Free Bets to Use : Two x £25 William Hill
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« Reply #71178 on: March 14, 2014, 01:56:15 PM »

Hills are 33/1 Tiger Roll for the champion hurdle 2015.  Absolutely sure that is a good use of a free bet.  Horse very inexperienced and won that well.  Can somebody kick Tikay fast.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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« Reply #71179 on: March 14, 2014, 02:02:33 PM »

depending on your views on the 240 chelt Scud looks a big price at 8/1 to be top jockey at ladbrokes. His key mount of the day is currently a heavily backed 3/1 poke for the 240.  If that wins ruby's most likely winner of the day obviously won't win.   recommend £25 at 8/1 on ladbrokes.  People are asking for under 8/1 on a not tight bf market.

Walsh out for the rest of the day

You've had a result there (assuming he ends up ok) arbboy
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« Reply #71180 on: March 14, 2014, 02:02:42 PM »

Last year's winner, Flaxen Flare, is 22/1 to double up in the County Hurdle. Patrick Parr gives you five places for 11/2. I can't have that being a bad bet.

Any chance we can oppose some former Ruby rides before the market catches up?
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« Reply #71181 on: March 14, 2014, 02:10:34 PM »

Last year's winner, Flaxen Flare, is 22/1 to double up in the County Hurdle. Patrick Parr gives you five places for 11/2. I can't have that being a bad bet.

Any chance we can oppose some former Ruby rides before the market catches up?

20/1 PP, 26/1 Betfair, you gain about 10% on the place due to 5 places, but slightly worse odds.  It probably isn't a bad bet tho.
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« Reply #71182 on: March 14, 2014, 02:13:45 PM »

Last year's winner, Flaxen Flare, is 22/1 to double up in the County Hurdle. Patrick Parr gives you five places for 11/2. I can't have that being a bad bet.

Any chance we can oppose some former Ruby rides before the market catches up?

20/1 PP, 26/1 Betfair, you gain about 10% on the place due to 5 places, but slightly worse odds.  It probably isn't a bad bet tho.

I took 22/1 about five mins ago. Sky bet 22/1 too
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tikay
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« Reply #71183 on: March 14, 2014, 02:16:56 PM »


Been unavoidably Offline for a couple of hours, sorry.

Missed the early stuff (would we have won?), but can action stuff now.

What do I need to get on urgently?

Arrboy - great spot on the Top Jock thing, but too late now, after Ruby's sad demise.
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« Reply #71184 on: March 14, 2014, 02:20:19 PM »

Hills are 33/1 Tiger Roll for the champion hurdle 2015.  Absolutely sure that is a good use of a free bet.  Horse very inexperienced and won that well.  Can somebody kick Tikay fast.

Bump for Tikay. 
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« Reply #71185 on: March 14, 2014, 02:31:05 PM »

Hills are 33/1 Tiger Roll for the champion hurdle 2015.  Absolutely sure that is a good use of a free bet.  Horse very inexperienced and won that well.  Can somebody kick Tikay fast.

Bump for Tikay. 

Done, details to follow.
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« Reply #71186 on: March 14, 2014, 02:36:45 PM »

depending on your views on the 240 chelt Scud looks a big price at 8/1 to be top jockey at ladbrokes. His key mount of the day is currently a heavily backed 3/1 poke for the 240.  If that wins ruby's most likely winner of the day obviously won't win.   recommend £25 at 8/1 on ladbrokes.  People are asking for under 8/1 on a not tight bf market.

Walsh out for the rest of the day

You've had a result there (assuming he ends up ok) arbboy

Cracking lay now on bf.  maximum lay for me for the thread.  Ruby Walsh to be top festival jockey.  Only way he can be beat is if Scu or Bazza get a win today (or johnson wins 2 or ap wins 3 - these are unlikely so we will exclude them from calcs)

So if we add up % chance of all scu an Bazza rides for the rest of the day to win it comes to 91% which makes them a 1/10 shot to win (ie Ruby 10/1 shot to win) u can currently lay under 4/1 for decent money.  I have already laid a monkey udner 4/1 in last 10 mins.  Suggest thread puts up asap £200 at 5/2 on bf and see if you get matched before the 240pm chelt race.  If not take it down as the price changes massively in the 240pm race.

To put it in simple terms we are getting around 2/5 about a 1/10 shot if we get matched prior to 2.40pm
« Last Edit: March 14, 2014, 02:41:15 PM by arbboy » Logged
Tal
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« Reply #71187 on: March 14, 2014, 02:46:16 PM »

Last year's winner, Flaxen Flare, is 22/1 to double up in the County Hurdle. Patrick Parr gives you five places for 11/2. I can't have that being a bad bet.

Any chance we can oppose some former Ruby rides before the market catches up?

20/1 PP, 26/1 Betfair, you gain about 10% on the place due to 5 places, but slightly worse odds.  It probably isn't a bad bet tho.

I took 22/1 about five mins ago. Sky bet 22/1 too

Snuck in fifth
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« Reply #71188 on: March 14, 2014, 02:46:32 PM »

depending on your views on the 240 chelt Scud looks a big price at 8/1 to be top jockey at ladbrokes. His key mount of the day is currently a heavily backed 3/1 poke for the 240.  If that wins ruby's most likely winner of the day obviously won't win.   recommend £25 at 8/1 on ladbrokes.  People are asking for under 8/1 on a not tight bf market.

Walsh out for the rest of the day

You've had a result there (assuming he ends up ok) arbboy

Cracking lay now on bf.  maximum lay for me for the thread.  Ruby Walsh to be top festival jockey.  Only way he can be beat is if Scu or Bazza get a win today (or johnson wins 2 or ap wins 3 - these are unlikely so we will exclude them from calcs)

So if we add up % chance of all scu an Bazza rides for the rest of the day to win it comes to 91% which makes them a 1/10 shot to win (ie Ruby 10/1 shot to win) u can currently lay under 4/1 for decent money.  I have already laid a monkey udner 4/1 in last 10 mins.  Suggest thread puts up asap £200 at 5/2 on bf and see if you get matched before the 240pm chelt race.  If not take it down as the price changes massively in the 240pm race.

To put it in simple terms we are getting around 2/5 about a 1/10 shot if we get matched prior to 2.40pm

Are you absolutely sure? you should be multiplying not to win for each race not adding up horses to win.
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« Reply #71189 on: March 14, 2014, 02:48:37 PM »

The maths for the Ruby bet are not correct

around 5/2 is about right based on the rides left for the two challengers today
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