Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Masters Golf.

It is increasingly rumoured that Tiger Woods will miss The Masters due to injury.



http://www.tigerwoods.com/news/2014/03/18/69554590/tiger-to-miss-arnold-palmer-invitational-due-to-back-spasms/



Does this open up any exploitable angles for us?


http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-masters/winner

get another £200 on this*

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-masters/maiden-winner

and put £50 on Tiger with Bierfart Sportsbook at 10-1






*That is now a great bet again with Tigers slippage

How much do we have on so far?

And we are backing Tiger for £50 @ 10/1 because.....?

Not arguing, just need to understand the thinking.

We currently have....

£50 @ 4/5

£55 @ 8/11

I've just added a further £110 @ 8/11.

I think that's enough.



19/03/2014 GBP 110.00 Single: 1ST TIME US MASTERS WINNER @ 8/11




Betid 37607742900


BET PLACED

woah, these two bets were on before today?

they are not on the spreadsheet.

[tikay]

Masters Golf.

It is increasingly rumoured that Tiger Woods will miss The Masters due to injury.



http://www.tigerwoods.com/news/2014/03/18/69554590/tiger-to-miss-arnold-palmer-invitational-due-to-back-spasms/



Does this open up any exploitable angles for us?


http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-masters/winner

get another £200 on this*

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-masters/maiden-winner

and put £50 on Tiger with Bierfart Sportsbook at 10-1






*That is now a great bet again with Tigers slippage

How much do we have on so far?

And we are backing Tiger for £50 @ 10/1 because.....?

Not arguing, just need to understand the thinking.

We currently have....

£50 @ 4/5

£55 @ 8/11

I've just added a further £110 @ 8/11.

I think that's enough.



19/03/2014 GBP 110.00 Single: 1ST TIME US MASTERS WINNER @ 8/11




Betid 37607742900


BET PLACED

woah, these two bets were on before today?

they are not on the spreadsheet.

Yes, those 2 bets were placed on the 19th & 20th of January.

I had assumed they were Fred bets. I need to go & have a look now.

I would not have placed them on my own initiative, especially twice.

In THIS case, if we agree they are good bets, the one @ 8/11 CAN go on the Spready, as the price is unchanged, & the Event has yet to occur, so no aftertimey-ness involved. I think the 4/5 would also be allowable, actually.

I'll have a bit of a rummage shortly.

I'll keep them for myself if there is any doubt, but I think they belong to Fred.

[doubleup]

This is the updated odds - you can back every previous winner and maiden winner for £95 and win £100

as   15   6.7
bw   22   4.5
cs   34   2.9
pm   15   6.7
ac   67   1.5
ti   250   0.4
zj   33   3.0
tw   11   9.1
fc   151   0.7
sl   1001   0.1
lm   1001   0.1
bc   1001   0.1
cs   1001   0.1
iw   5001   0.0
tw   1001   0.1
mw   1001   0.1
mo   1001   0.1
jmo   1001   0.1
bl   501   0.2
vs   301   0.3
1st   1.73   57.8

      94.7

[doubleup]

They are def Fred - me and Chompy wanted £500 on but Mr Tiddleasrse only put on £100

[sonour]

I remember this and they were definitely intended to be Fred bets. I think it's a very good bet.

[tikay]

They are def Fred - me and Chompy wanted £500 on but Mr Tiddleasrse only put on £100

Ha!

That'll be me or Dubai, then.

WTF does Chompy know about golf? He can't even play the game. Plays at St Neots Muni, weraring plimsolls.

[tikay]

My record in these has been far from stellar, but I'm going to suggest a chess match bet...

Remember the old name for the Snickers chocolate bar? Well this bet is with that bookmarking firm.

If you play a hard game where you almost won but didn't, it is common to try a quieter game and take a draw, almost like a semi-rest day. Same applies if you ballsed up a level or better game and lost. You have to get it out of your mind and move on.

Veselin Topalov got a nice position today out of a very well prepared opening but then made a few poor moves and got into trouble. If you're playing baseline tennis, you have to make sure you're hitting deep; too many near the service line and you'll be punished. The same is true in chess; they don't have to be bad moves; just a couple of suboptimal ones and you could be toast. He has come with a game plan to get good positions out of the openings and play solidly in the first half of the comp, before going for wins in the second half.

Vladmir Kramnik has been showing signs of some of his best chess, without quite bursting through into full bloom. It is coming, though. He had a long break before this comp and, like horses, some are better for the run, while some like a long lay off. He typically gets better as the comp goes on and in the last Candidates, he started slowly and attacked in the second half. He played a game today that would have had the commentators having kittens, such was its complexity; it was a brutal game and the sheer force of calculation needed from the Russian was incredible. He must be gutted not quite to have won.

Topalov v Kramnik tomorrow morning. Quick draw, then?

No chance.

More chance of Mark Hughes getting an invite to Arsène Wenger's house for tea and toast. These two fellas were the lead figures of the Toiletgate fiasco when they played for the 2006 World Championship crown. They have barely played in the seven and a half years since and most of those games have been exhibition quickplay or blindfold games. They don't shake hands and there are no quick "grandmaster" draws.

It is entirely possible that these two great players will cancel each other out. In fact, that's the most likely outcome. But it isn't the same likelihood as it would be for two other players in this position, as both will want to win. Both have really been hammering the opening preparation in the lead up to the comp (that is easy to see based on the variations they have been playing so far), but I can see an explosive game with a really intense flavour. They have a rest day on Thursday, so they can go hell for leather if they want.

Topalov is 4.333 to win with White; Kramnik is 5.2 to win with Black. I can find a case for backing both of them (this is a really tight market with just 4% over round - the draw is 1.615). Of the two, I prefer Kramnik as a better endgame player, but I'm essentially opposing the draw. Only other bookie I can find is Bwon, who are shorter on both decisive outcomes and I think they're right. If my maths is right, you're basically betting 6/4 on one of them winning if you back both.

If we pick one, we gamble with Kramnik. I'm only advocating £10 anyway; individual chess game betting is high variance stuff. I'm just not persuaded by the size of the draw price.

Happy to take thoughts.



Think the game starts at 9am tomorrow. My availability tomorrow is likely to be very limited.

I know Fred isn't on, but anyone who has chosen to go with me might be interested to know that the game is less than an hour old and completely mad. Pieces everywhere. Kramnik has decided to go full out for a win. The computers say he's made a mistake in doing so, but this is one of those situations where a human has much more difficulty than a computer in calculating all the variations.

Draw seems the third most likely result right now.

Sorry I missed this, but I'm pretty sure I'd have picked the wrong one.

When a big game like this is on, do all the different computers try to predict the outcome? And do they all agree with each other?

[Tal]

http://www.chessdom.com/candidates-chess-2014-live/

Select the Topalov - Kramnik game and the position will open up. There are then three computers telling you their assessment of the position (Houdini, Komodo and Stockfish - sounds like the advertising agency in Bewitched). They all have slightly different views at the moment, just like three different people; they can only "see" so far.

[Doobs]

Is Aronian going to win?  Half the thread have a gazillion pounds on each. We need something to get us out from Cheltenham and won't settle for anything but first.

[Tal]

Is Aronian going to win?  Half the thread have a gazillion pounds on each. We need something to get us out from Cheltenham and won't settle for anything but first.

He's currently second. Anand is the surprise leader (was 40/1 with one bookie, although that was a stupid price. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, sometimes), but not yet half way through. Our man is doing fine. He is playing the aggressive, high risk stuff he is known for.

Coverage all over the internet, but also on Chess Thread.

[tikay]

Nobody guessed the Fred Birthday Boy yet?

He'll be VERY disappointed, but it may spur him on to greater things. 

[sonour]

PP Messenger

Man U to qualify for the next round v Olympiakos 3/1
Send stake and Enhanced Man Utd via PP Messenger

Eg 20 Enhanced Man Utd

[Doobs]

Nobody guessed the Fred Birthday Boy yet?

He'll be VERY disappointed, but it may spur him on to greater things. 

You talk about bets he has posted, is it more a series of different ways to incinerate money?

[DungBeetle]

Avb had an excellent record at Spurs or at least good

Clouded by the last few games were he had obviously lost the dressing room for whatever reason and him having about 2 friends in the media compared to Sherwood and 'arry who seem to have hundreds

That's the worry though - both at Chelsea and Spurs he "lost the dressing room".   Not a great tendency in a manager that is paid megabucks on every contract.

Agree with your point about some managers having media chums in the UK though.  Will be interesting to see what he makes of Zenit.

[tikay]

Nobody guessed the Fred Birthday Boy yet?

He'll be VERY disappointed, but it may spur him on to greater things. 

You talk about bets he has posted, is it more a series of different ways to incinerate money?

In not so many words, yes.