Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

Think Fred's on OKC at 7/1 or 13/2 already Mark, not that I'd oppose pressing....their drift makes no sense, they've been a little indifferent of late but so has everyone else, looks pretty wide open, even my pre-season bets on Brooklyn and Houston are looking a bit lively now, think Brooklyn have the best record of any team in 2014

How's our boy doing, Jeff?

I couldn't find any odds anywhere, and haven't seen any really recent articles.

I did see that the team are getting mullered every game, but I guess that works in our favour with him still putting up so many points.

would be pretty surprising if he didn't win ROY from here imo.

[bobby1]

Would love to read about the OU course Double if you get time to post.

[bobby1]

Hi Horsey, I know I should know this but who is the second photo and what is the Horse Versus Guard one about?

Thanks.

Hi mate,

There was a 3 horse race at Southwell today featuring two horses that are chasing the record number of AW wins, La Estrella and Stand Guard
 (trained by one of the guys that was involved in the Curley coup last week). La Estrella was a late withdrawal which was a shame unless you had backed Stand Guard (who SP'd 1/80) at Evens before La Estrella was a non runner, with the rule 4 deduction you would have been on Stand Guard art around 1/2 or 4/9.......in a two horse race with the other runner about 40/1 on the off. Rule 4 chart is about 100 years out of date and it isn't very often it provides situations where it can be taken advantage of, how fortunate for some people that today provided such a situation. Would like to have won a pound less than John Butler in the last week......

Only managed to pull this off three times in around 6 weeks now before any kind of investigation starts. Might be time to start investigating self certs too as the abuse of those is well past the ridiculous stage.

[Tal]

My record in these has been far from stellar, but I'm going to suggest a chess match bet...

Remember the old name for the Snickers chocolate bar? Well this bet is with that bookmarking firm.

If you play a hard game where you almost won but didn't, it is common to try a quieter game and take a draw, almost like a semi-rest day. Same applies if you ballsed up a level or better game and lost. You have to get it out of your mind and move on.

Veselin Topalov got a nice position today out of a very well prepared opening but then made a few poor moves and got into trouble. If you're playing baseline tennis, you have to make sure you're hitting deep; too many near the service line and you'll be punished. The same is true in chess; they don't have to be bad moves; just a couple of suboptimal ones and you could be toast. He has come with a game plan to get good positions out of the openings and play solidly in the first half of the comp, before going for wins in the second half.

Vladmir Kramnik has been showing signs of some of his best chess, without quite bursting through into full bloom. It is coming, though. He had a long break before this comp and, like horses, some are better for the run, while some like a long lay off. He typically gets better as the comp goes on and in the last Candidates, he started slowly and attacked in the second half. He played a game today that would have had the commentators having kittens, such was its complexity; it was a brutal game and the sheer force of calculation needed from the Russian was incredible. He must be gutted not quite to have won.

Topalov v Kramnik tomorrow morning. Quick draw, then?

No chance.

More chance of Mark Hughes getting an invite to Arsène Wenger's house for tea and toast. These two fellas were the lead figures of the Toiletgate fiasco when they played for the 2006 World Championship crown. They have barely played in the seven and a half years since and most of those games have been exhibition quickplay or blindfold games. They don't shake hands and there are no quick "grandmaster" draws.

It is entirely possible that these two great players will cancel each other out. In fact, that's the most likely outcome. But it isn't the same likelihood as it would be for two other players in this position, as both will want to win. Both have really been hammering the opening preparation in the lead up to the comp (that is easy to see based on the variations they have been playing so far), but I can see an explosive game with a really intense flavour. They have a rest day on Thursday, so they can go hell for leather if they want.

Topalov is 4.333 to win with White; Kramnik is 5.2 to win with Black. I can find a case for backing both of them (this is a really tight market with just 4% over round - the draw is 1.615). Of the two, I prefer Kramnik as a better endgame player, but I'm essentially opposing the draw. Only other bookie I can find is Bwon, who are shorter on both decisive outcomes and I think they're right. If my maths is right, you're basically betting 6/4 on one of them winning if you back both.

If we pick one, we gamble with Kramnik. I'm only advocating £10 anyway; individual chess game betting is high variance stuff. I'm just not persuaded by the size of the draw price.

Happy to take thoughts.



Think the game starts at 9am tomorrow. My availability tomorrow is likely to be very limited.

[Marky147]

Think Fred's on OKC at 7/1 or 13/2 already Mark, not that I'd oppose pressing....their drift makes no sense, they've been a little indifferent of late but so has everyone else, looks pretty wide open, even my pre-season bets on Brooklyn and Houston are looking a bit lively now, think Brooklyn have the best record of any team in 2014

How's our boy doing, Jeff?

I couldn't find any odds anywhere, and haven't seen any really recent articles.

I did see that the team are getting mullered every game, but I guess that works in our favour with him still putting up so many points.

would be pretty surprising if he didn't win ROY from here imo.

I seem to have a knack like yourself for getting 1.0x shots busted up 

[Tal]

Looks like we hit the crossbar on Lucrezia Reichlin

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/mar/18/bank-of-england-nemak-shafik-ben-broadbent-deputy-governors

Not the favourite and a woman. Right desert, wrong tent, mixed metaphor.

[horseplayer]

Peter Pawlett


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Baby...............

[aaron1867]

Interesting price on m'boro at home to QPR at weekend

QPR in middle of an injury crisis & now a player less after dunne's sending off tonight. As soon as we scored tonight only one team in it

M'boro 6/4, worth a note

[redarmi]

Interesting price on m'boro at home to QPR at weekend

QPR in middle of an injury crisis & now a player less after dunne's sending off tonight. As soon as we scored tonight only one team in it

M'boro 6/4, worth a note

Very big game in my house this one but 6/4 seems about right.  Would definitely be interested in overs though.  Boro had ridic amount of 0-0s since karanka has taken over but signs of some goalscoring now whilst Morrison seems to be finally plugging the Austen gap for QPR and that is a big defensive injury....

[Nico29]

Have been mulling over the 'Budget to say anytime' http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/budget/to-say-at-anytime market already spoken of itt.

Desperate to find some value I am sorely tempted by 'twitter' at 16/1.

George Osbourne has had a twitter account for a year now, but from what I can see he's (or whoever writes it for him) been using it a great deal more to spam his policies/announcements as of late.

https://twitter.com/George_Osborne

I know last year it wasn't mentioned, but there's no reason imo he won't try and be 'trendy' by mentioning it in some context.

Also believe that now they've used it for a year, perhaps they are more aware of it's growing importance upon society-especially amongst the young.

Far from an expert on these things but 16/1 just seemed larger than i'd expect-didn't expect doubles figures.

Have chucked the max allowed (£20) on it.

Just wondered what peeps thought?

[Marky147]

Have been mulling over the 'Budget to say anytime' http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/budget/to-say-at-anytime market already spoken of itt.

Desperate to find some value I am sorely tempted by 'twitter' at 16/1.

George Osbourne has had a twitter account for a year now, but from what I can see he's (or whoever writes it for him) been using it a great deal more to spam his policies/announcements as of late.

https://twitter.com/George_Osborne

I know last year it wasn't mentioned, but there's no reason imo he won't try and be 'trendy' by mentioning it in some context.

Also believe that now they've used it for a year, perhaps they are more aware of it's growing importance upon society-especially amongst the young.

Far from an expert on these things but 16/1 just seemed larger than i'd expect-didn't expect doubles figures.

Have chucked the max allowed (£20) on it.

Just wondered what peeps thought?

I thought, and did exactly the same last year

[Nico29]

It was 10/1 to be said last year.

I know it may have been more 'new' for him then as it was opened the day of the budget, but i actually prefer the bet now, especially with the 6 added points.

Being On Twitter for a year now and seeing how the slightest comment can cause ripples far greater than normal media releases would, imo make it more likely he'll mention it.

Basically I thought it would be an 8-1 shot, 10's max.

[hector62]

Evening Mr T.

The Miami ATP tennis starts tomorrow and all the top players are in attendance. The aura of invincibility has gone from the big four players but the next tier haven't really stepped up, or are playing whilst injured. There is however a group of players below them who have raised their games, in particular Gulbis, Dimitrov, Cilic and Monfils. They have been very profitable to follow this season and I would like to suggest a small bet on Cilic for this tournament. He has avoided Djokovic and Federer who are in the bottom half and I think he is over priced.

Suggest £5 e/w on Marin Cilic @ 50-1 Betfred, Hills or Paddy.

We will of course be looking to gauge our usual Murray plunge, and the service break thingy.

By the way I do have a wonderful recipe for carrots that involves cooking them in a tin foil blanket. It would go very well with your usual fish and tomato concoction.

[Chompy]

It was 10/1 to be said last year.

I know it may have been more 'new' for him then as it was opened the day of the budget, but i actually prefer the bet now, especially with the 6 added points.

Being On Twitter for a year now and seeing how the slightest comment can cause ripples far greater than normal media releases would, imo make it more likely he'll mention it.

Basically I thought it would be an 8-1 shot, 10's max.

Could be a runner, most likely if he mentions how he's been following Scott Hogan's twitter to see how the knee is after following us in.

Armenia is 5/4 for the Eurovision! Absurd scenes. Defo doing some research tomorrow.

[arbboy]

It was 10/1 to be said last year.

I know it may have been more 'new' for him then as it was opened the day of the budget, but i actually prefer the bet now, especially with the 6 added points.

Being On Twitter for a year now and seeing how the slightest comment can cause ripples far greater than normal media releases would, imo make it more likely he'll mention it.

Basically I thought it would be an 8-1 shot, 10's max.

+1 to all this.  I actually thought the same.