Tips for Tikay

[sonour]

There is an interesting spot in the last race at Kempton tonight.  It appears as though the Ann Stokell yard is going for a touch with its horses owned by Stephen Arnold.  The horses, for information, are Profile Star 7/4 form 8-1 in the 330 Ling, Decent Fella 2/1 from double figures in the 440 Ling, We have a Dream 3/1 from 9/1 640 Kemp and Brown Pete odds on from 9/2 with firms but trading at 2.70 on Betfair.  It is the last horse that is interesting to me.  It is running from the number 1 stall at Kempton and it is almost impossible to win from there outside of small fields and this race has 14 runners.  Andrew Mount, who writes for GG, and is very good at this kind of analysis says only 1 winner has come from the 1 box since 2012 and thought it was opposable at 9-2.  Now obviously that isn't the case as the horse is off for it's life but at short prices I think it is lay and if the others in the gamble win and it is layable at Evens or something ridiculous I think it would be a great bet to lay.  I have laid a small amount at the current prices but will definitely go in again if it is too short.

1.57 to lay now Red

[redarmi]

Think  that is the place market which is probably actually a decent bet to lay too.  The first one got beat but Profile Star won so still a decent chance the office need to send money back to the track.  Be interesting to see what price Decent Fella goes off.

[BigAdz]

There is an interesting spot in the last race at Kempton tonight.  It appears as though the Ann Stokell yard is going for a touch with its horses owned by Stephen Arnold.  The horses, for information, are Profile Star 7/4 form 8-1 in the 330 Ling, Decent Fella 2/1 from double figures in the 440 Ling, We have a Dream 3/1 from 9/1 640 Kemp and Brown Pete odds on from 9/2 with firms but trading at 2.70 on Betfair.  It is the last horse that is interesting to me.  It is running from the number 1 stall at Kempton and it is almost impossible to win from there outside of small fields and this race has 14 runners.  Andrew Mount, who writes for GG, and is very good at this kind of analysis says only 1 winner has come from the 1 box since 2012 and thought it was opposable at 9-2.  Now obviously that isn't the case as the horse is off for it's life but at short prices I think it is lay and if the others in the gamble win and it is layable at Evens or something ridiculous I think it would be a great bet to lay.  I have laid a small amount at the current prices but will definitely go in again if it is too short.

1.57 to lay now Red

Place odds. Harley wont be on it though now(?), which increases the interest level. If Curtis switches for instance makes it look a whole lot better as a lay.

[horseplayer]

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/international/dubai-world-cup/winner

BET SUGGESTIONS

£30 WIN RULER OF THE WORLD 5/1 VARIOUS FIRMS

£10 WIN AKEED MOFEED 14/1 BETFAIR SPORTSBOOK

Sorry writing on phone main reason being the main joint fav with most firms The Fugue is rumoured to be running in the duty free rather than this the world cup. Some firms have reacted some have not. With The Fugue running 5/1 is ok without her think ROTW will start nearer 3/1.

Akeed Mofeed a bit more leftfield some will remember from time being a good horse with John Ox in Ireland a few seasons ago. Become very good in Hong Kong and usually runs its race, is bred for the surface and is quite closely tied up formline wise with another hong kong horse Military Attack who is generally 7/1 (some bigger). Think Akeed Mofeed should be very close to the price of MA just a tenner as not a certain runner.

Apologies for typos.

[tikay]

Tighy asked me if I would post my thoughts on the upcoming MLB season and I have had a fairly long look over the last few days.  All of the Sabremetrics out there these days mean that unless you really follow the sport and understand the maths it is hard to be the best but I'm not sure the oddsmakers are that great either especially when it comes to the ante post stuff and I think there are a couple of edges.

Firstly, going back to the division that we had our bets in last year.  I think my analysis at the beginning of the season was okay and we certainly had value in the Rays and we realised the Red Sox were the real deal in time to have a saver on them.  The bet last year basically revolved around the fact that the Yankees were overbet by the market and that the BlueJays were not going to be as good as expected.    If we look at the market this year we can see that the BLue Jays were awful last year and are expected to be the same again.  The Orioles are probably about what we would expect from them as a rag too which leaves us with the Yanks, Red Sox and Rays again.  Last year the Yankees won 85 games out of 162 so about 52% of game.  They scored 616 runs and conceded 702 runs.  Teams that have that run differential should really be expected to win about 71 games.  Since then they have traded their best hitter Robinson Cano, Andy Pettite who was a very good pitcher has retired as has Mariano Rivera who is probably the best relieving pitcher ever so you should expect them to be worse yet they are still third faves for the division and fifth faves for the world series.  They have made some improvements to the team but overall most of the roster is 30+ and they just look like a team in decline to me.  I think there are a couple of ways you can bet it.  The most obvious is to bet under 87 total season wins.  It is -129 at pinnacle (a shade under 4/5) and that is fine but with a bit of shopping we could probably find better.  Its a long time to tie the money up but I think they should be 2/5 under that number if the truth be told.  Alternatively we could just bet the Rays or Red Sox for the division.  I think both have value at their best price.

There are a couple of other bets that I am mulling but not totally sure and I will post when I have done a bit more work if I think they are value.

Thanks Stu.

I'll sort these out in the morning, as well as the one Tighty Posted on Sunday, & bumped today.

I'm assuming these markets are pretty heavily traded, so we should not lose any price between now & then.

[Doobs]

Completely understand Tal.

I must confess to finding amusing that several people who probably listen to one political speech a year can make a value statement on a word being used from 16-1 to 8-1. Hardly a bunch of parliamentry experts are we?!

Fred has developed a habit of accepting almost every bet offered these days. When I first joined around two plus, years ago, I had numerous bets knocked back, as did several others, rightly or wrongly, but Fred was profitable as a result then. At the moment he is almost in financial freefall and very little is changing to stop the rot. Not my money, admittedly, and I can choose the stuff I follow, but my  its my favourite read on the net, so I do feel a touch of ownership.

I will be the first to admit I have yet to make a positive contribution this year with none of my few bets winning, but all have been well researched, and I would put them all up again. They ain't just guesses.

I would suggest that a few conclusions can be drawn from that.

No doubt I might have put a few noses out of joint, so excuse me, no harm intended.  


I also say this as one of a few people that backed a 100-1 jobbie in the speech last year .....but I keep my degen stuff off Fred!

I'm not sure that is true, Adzy. For starters, I miss half the bets put up due to time pressure! Others can get or, or not, as they wish though. 7 different Recommends for the Budget Speech were proposed. Fred backed just one of them. Sometimes I have to reject things "silently". No reply can mean thanks but no thanks.....

The idea is that folks put stuff up, & others critique it. If they don't, the decision is left with me. I accept full responsibility for that, & use my own money.
And of course, just because Fred gets on, nobody else is forced to. That's the whole thing, everyone can cherry-pick what they thing is good.

As most know, my workload elsewhere has increased enormously of late, what with UKPC, and what has since taken place because of it's success.   

I've stated several times that it's difficult for me to cope at the moment, & if anyone else wants to take my place, I'd be very grateful, & would assist as much as able.

Tighty has offered, repeatedly, & I don't mind that method, if we all agree, but that has complications - he'd have to use my Accounts, most of which are Restricted now. 

It's all quite a puzzle as to what to do for the best. But if we enjoy the thread enough, we ought to be able to work together & help find the solution, working as a team, with everyone contributing ideas which might assist.

I'm reasonably sure that the last 2 months have just been variance kicking in. We ran outrageously well in 2013. And of course, just because Fred gets on, nobody else is forced to. That's the whole thing, everyone can cherry-pick what they thing is good.

We certainly don't need to do is fall out with each other.

Ps - Well done on the 100/1 winner in last years Budget Speech. How did you get that though without any aftertiming jibes? You don't 'arf run good. 

All well documented last year, before you start. Cant remember who suggested it, I just did my Marky impression and backed anything anyone put up......

Never intended to upset anyone during the debate, I just think we have some over sensitive little bunnies on here at times(I may well be one). I accept some of my "challenges" may come across as confrontational at times, but no harm intended, and I would hate to think someone stops posting because of me. Those that know me on here will confirm I am a pussy cat. I just don't flower up my words....that's Tal's dept


Fairly clear why we are running so bad versus last year is the loss/reduction of input from some significants, Dubai/bobby1/Camel/Neil rather than straight variance.

 Last year we won at Cheltenham as there were a lot of offers, we could get on all of them, and we hammered them large.  A lot of these fancied horses obliged.  This year we couldn't get on nearly as many offers, and a lot of fancied horses didn't oblige.  The fact we couldn't get on was probably a positive for us this year!  Think this alone must account for a near 4 figure swing from last year.

Obviously Neil is an issue, as he was/is the most succesful tipster for thread and by all accounts, he had a good Cheltenham.  But saying it is fairly clear we are losing because those 4 didn't post just doesn't hold up to scrutiny.  I'd say at least 2 of them weren't exactly prolific when we had all those straight winning months either.

We do seem to have lost our shape with a few bets recently, but that has happened every so often on thread.  I don't think I have really lost my shape at all and I haven't had a great time either for a few weeks.   Maybe we needed better policing from some of the elders, but if folk don't want to post, not sure what we can do.

[sonour]

Think  that is the place market which is probably actually a decent bet to lay too.  The first one got beat but Profile Star won so still a decent chance the office need to send money back to the track.  Be interesting to see what price Decent Fella goes off.

That would explain it then

Thanks

[tikay]

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/international/dubai-world-cup/winner

BET SUGGESTIONS

£30 WIN RULER OF THE WORLD 5/1 VARIOUS FIRMS

£10 WIN AKEED MOFEED 14/1 BETFAIR SPORTSBOOK

Sorry writing on phone main reason being the main joint fav with most firms The Fugue is rumoured to be running in the duty free rather than this the world cup. Some firms have reacted some have not. With The Fugue running 5/1 is ok without her think ROTW will start nearer 3/1.

Akeed Mofeed a bit more leftfield some will remember from time being a good horse with John Ox in Ireland a few seasons ago. Become very good in Hong Kong and usually runs its race, is bred for the surface and is quite closely tied up formline wise with another hong kong horse Military Attack who is generally 7/1 (some bigger). Think Akeed Mofeed should be very close to the price of MA just a tenner as not a certain runner.

Apologies for typos.

Thanks John, safely on, details in the morning, but we are on exactly as suggested.

2 BETS PLACED

[tikay]

The Grand National is a bit of a funny one for me.  Traditionally the best way to approach it was to look to bet in advance because everything just got shortened every day until until raceday especially if it was a popular trainer or jockey and I would expect that to happen to a degree still so the bet to lay is probably fine but the problem with betting so far in advance now is that with all the offers you might just miss a chunk of EV with extra places, money back if seconds etc.  It honestly wouldn't surprise me to see a firm pay 6 places this year and be 2 points bigger on the jolly.

Just noticed that BMU are playing 6 places.

[exstream]

Completely understand Tal.

I must confess to finding amusing that several people who probably listen to one political speech a year can make a value statement on a word being used from 16-1 to 8-1. Hardly a bunch of parliamentry experts are we?!

Fred has developed a habit of accepting almost every bet offered these days. When I first joined around two plus, years ago, I had numerous bets knocked back, as did several others, rightly or wrongly, but Fred was profitable as a result then. At the moment he is almost in financial freefall and very little is changing to stop the rot. Not my money, admittedly, and I can choose the stuff I follow, but my  its my favourite read on the net, so I do feel a touch of ownership.

I will be the first to admit I have yet to make a positive contribution this year with none of my few bets winning, but all have been well researched, and I would put them all up again. They ain't just guesses.

I would suggest that a few conclusions can be drawn from that.

No doubt I might have put a few noses out of joint, so excuse me, no harm intended.  


I also say this as one of a few people that backed a 100-1 jobbie in the speech last year .....but I keep my degen stuff off Fred!

I'm not sure that is true, Adzy. For starters, I miss half the bets put up due to time pressure! Others can get or, or not, as they wish though. 7 different Recommends for the Budget Speech were proposed. Fred backed just one of them. Sometimes I have to reject things "silently". No reply can mean thanks but no thanks.....

The idea is that folks put stuff up, & others critique it. If they don't, the decision is left with me. I accept full responsibility for that, & use my own money.
And of course, just because Fred gets on, nobody else is forced to. That's the whole thing, everyone can cherry-pick what they thing is good.

As most know, my workload elsewhere has increased enormously of late, what with UKPC, and what has since taken place because of it's success.   

I've stated several times that it's difficult for me to cope at the moment, & if anyone else wants to take my place, I'd be very grateful, & would assist as much as able.

Tighty has offered, repeatedly, & I don't mind that method, if we all agree, but that has complications - he'd have to use my Accounts, most of which are Restricted now. 

It's all quite a puzzle as to what to do for the best. But if we enjoy the thread enough, we ought to be able to work together & help find the solution, working as a team, with everyone contributing ideas which might assist.

I'm reasonably sure that the last 2 months have just been variance kicking in. We ran outrageously well in 2013. And of course, just because Fred gets on, nobody else is forced to. That's the whole thing, everyone can cherry-pick what they thing is good.

We certainly don't need to do is fall out with each other.

Ps - Well done on the 100/1 winner in last years Budget Speech. How did you get that though without any aftertiming jibes? You don't 'arf run good. 

All well documented last year, before you start. Cant remember who suggested it, I just did my Marky impression and backed anything anyone put up......

Never intended to upset anyone during the debate, I just think we have some over sensitive little bunnies on here at times(I may well be one). I accept some of my "challenges" may come across as confrontational at times, but no harm intended, and I would hate to think someone stops posting because of me. Those that know me on here will confirm I am a pussy cat. I just don't flower up my words....that's Tal's dept


Fairly clear why we are running so bad versus last year is the loss/reduction of input from some significants, Dubai/bobby1/Camel/Neil rather than straight variance.

 Last year we won at Cheltenham as there were a lot of offers, we could get on all of them, and we hammered them large.  A lot of these fancied horses obliged.  This year we couldn't get on nearly as many offers, and a lot of fancied horses didn't oblige.  The fact we couldn't get on was probably a positive for us this year!  Think this alone must account for a near 4 figure swing from last year.

Obviously Neil is an issue, as he was/is the most succesful tipster for thread and by all accounts, he had a good Cheltenham.  But saying it is fairly clear we are losing because those 4 didn't post just doesn't hold up to scrutiny.  I'd say at least 2 of them weren't exactly prolific when we had all those straight winning months either.

We do seem to have lost our shape with a few bets recently, but that has happened every so often on thread.  I don't think I have really lost my shape at all and I haven't had a great time either for a few weeks.   Maybe we needed better policing from some of the elders, but if folk don't want to post, not sure what we can do.

That guy Adz hasn't put up a horse for a while....

[aaron1867]

I am not sure there will be many views on this or how good or bad the price is, but Bournemouth are 2/1 for a "top 12" finish in the Championship & currently sit 12th. I don't think this would be the worst bet in the world & the next 3 games could see them perhaps lock up a top 12 spot against 3 teams out of form.

Barnsley (A)
Leeds (H)
Birmingham (A)

Think this is perhaps the best bet out of "top 12" market. Wednesday are 9/4 and I doubt we will have enough to muster a top 12 finish & I think Huddersfield who are shorter at 7/4 will struggle to get in the top 12 though. Open to discussion!

[BigAdz]

Still licking my wounds from Many Clouds unfortunate early departure exstream.

I shall return soon enough now the ground is becoming more reliable.

[jakally]

I am not sure there will be many views on this or how good or bad the price is, but Bournemouth are 2/1 for a "top 12" finish in the Championship & currently sit 12th. I don't think this would be the worst bet in the world & the next 3 games could see them perhaps lock up a top 12 spot against 3 teams out of form.

Barnsley (A)
Leeds (H)
Birmingham (A)

Think this is perhaps the best bet out of "top 12" market. Wednesday are 9/4 and I doubt we will have enough to muster a top 12 finish & I think Huddersfield who are shorter at 7/4 will struggle to get in the top 12 though. Open to discussion!

You can get 3's on Wednesday which, on the face of it, looks like the bet, but I looked earlier and they have a very tough run in.
I don't fancy Huddersfield much, and Leeds are pretty bad at the minute.
Bournemouth are solid enough, and it could be a straight fight with Boro, in which case 2's is probably worth a small-ish bet.

[aaron1867]

Not seen the 3's?

[arbboy]

The Grand National is a bit of a funny one for me.  Traditionally the best way to approach it was to look to bet in advance because everything just got shortened every day until until raceday especially if it was a popular trainer or jockey and I would expect that to happen to a degree still so the bet to lay is probably fine but the problem with betting so far in advance now is that with all the offers you might just miss a chunk of EV with extra places, money back if seconds etc.  It honestly wouldn't surprise me to see a firm pay 6 places this year and be 2 points bigger on the jolly.

Just noticed that BMU are playing 6 places.

Pretty much bottom price every horse because of paying 6 places and no NRNB.  Would imagine if we are going to bet Tidal Bay 365 or bf sportsbook are the firms with NRNB and 5 places paid.