Tips for Tikay

[mulhuzz]

Best caption ever

[Dubai]

You're a winning horse racing gambler, a good judge. You can spot prices that are wrong between 10am and midday where you know if you can get on over the year you will return a decent roi. However the firms agree with you and know this, so they won't lay you- you then visit shops, they then spot you- various associates/ family member now also can't get

Does the next best strategic step seem to be write a book and make a video shouting all of the above to anyone that didn't know it?

Just ridiculous.

[horseplayer]

Probably not

But maybe he has been stitched up by a friend/associate whose accounts he was using and has had enough.

Of course that is the fairly easy solution but does not come without risks attached and is not a great long term solution imo.

[bobby1]

Noobish question but why do the bookies care if I'm an arber?

Presumably they think that every bet they make is +EV for them so why not just fucking get on with it?

Because the £25k 'loltraders' think they are great judges/compilers but the reality is they are clueless and the bottom line P+L of their dept/sport proves this when the accountants review the figures at the end of the year and see how much the 'arbers/judges/anyone with a clue' win each year.  Without wishing to brag when i was a trader in the game for firms 10 years ago i used to phone up known arbers myself and ask them to effectively get my firm on with other firms and guarantee them £xk at a certain price based on their ability to hoover up all the bad firms' prices and they would make their 0.5/1% on their arb with no risk.  Pinnacle effectively do the same and are happy to accommodate arbers.  If the firms paid city type salaries for city style quality of compilers and traders like numerous people on here who left the industry to punt for themselves, they would get a quality of product where they could happily take on arbers and effectively bet with the bad firms themselves.  The reality of the industry is as stated.  They have relied on fobt's for 10 years to pay the bills and refused to pay for any trading talent and just choose to close any account that wins and call them 'arbers' whether they are arbers or not.  The majority of trading teams are full of all the talentless people/degens who need a wage to sposnor their punting habit because all the decent judges left the game years ago to work tax free for themselves.

I'm not sure this is true these days tho, most sports are bet from tools that just throw out prices on their own and just need managing along the way. So some of the guys that are called traders these days are betting 4 football matches at a time from a text feed and clicking  corner, throw in, goal kick etc when these occur.

So in those spots it doesn't really need an experienced guy and they are seen more as step up the ladder jobs. There are just so few sports these days that have a guy trading them from his own opinion or without a BF price to guide them.

[horseplayer]

Phil serious question

Why dont more of them use twitter?

Maybe they do but with a few hours work you can whittle a list of people who often get the market moves right and/or info out that causes price movements.

Appreciate they probably dont have the time but it shouldnt be that tricky

[arbboy]

there are so many basic compiling errors made every week that involve 10 year old level probability calcs on markets that have no liquidity on the machine for them to copy.  The vast majority of so called traders literally have no idea about basic probability never mind advanced stuff.

[Dubai]

I'd imagine most bookies would happily accept a small % of people are way more in the know about horse racing prices than they could possibly be- therefore as soon as they identify a member of this elite % they are understandably very cautious to the point where they don't even take the risk these days. Id imagine the same firm would have a hard time believing a punter  had the same edge over them if they were betting on football correct scores and firstgoalscorers for example. Now id imagine a bookmaker would have an incredibly hard time believing a punter could have an edge on them if he bet on a variety of sports and markets regularly- the same punter would be given far bigger rope to play with.

[Tal]

You're a winning horse racing gambler, a good judge. You can spot prices that are wrong between 10am and midday where you know if you can get on over the year you will return a decent roi. However the firms agree with you and know this, so they won't lay you- you then visit shops, they then spot you- various associates/ family member now also can't get

Does the next best strategic step seem to be write a book and make a video shouting all of the above to anyone that didn't know it?

Just ridiculous.

That's bang on, sir.

For balance, you're a sodding know-it-all.

[bobby1]

The middle aged generation seem to struggle the most to get on- they tend to love this tho and reveal in their shrewdness. Like the 2 jokers that made the youtube video- probably been winning punters for years, decent horse racing judges- had all their accounts shut for backing horses between 10am and noon taking prices. Continue to try and get on doing the same thing tho, with the same method, at the same time, probably giving no action inbetween. And now wanna cry they can't get on. Not exactly rocket science..

As LilDave always told me, more to poker than being good. What's the point being a really profitable poker player if you can't get in a game where you can be really profitable.

Obviously I have worked on the other side of the fence and truly believe that if firms took the time to review all account codes and restrictions they would be shocked at some of the reasons punters  are restricted. I was working a German Bundesliga 2 game prob 10 years ago now with the guy in charge of the dept that was live on German TV on a Monday night. Those games had really good turnover coz the channels were available in other countries too. In this game there was a lot of money for one team coming up to kick off and the 6/4 went off 6/5 coz of some important team news. The prob is I can't speak German and the other guy was from Norway, so neither could he. All that had happened was the TV coverage had started 30 mins before kick off and all the punters watching German TV knew the team news that we didn't. We bet it in running and do our money both pre game and in running.

The day after I go into work and find the Norwegian guy is restricting all the punters that took 6/4 about the team that went off 6/5 in the run up to kick off. We have a bit of a convo about that being a little over the top as it was mainly our fault we didn't know the team news. Anyway he ploughs on thru and restricts them all, so to this day, ten years on there are probably a load of genuine German punters that have restricted accounts because they had a bet on a game that was to them the equivalent of you or I sitting on our sofa betting on QPR v Watford live on Sky on a Monday night.

There will be instances of that almost every day so you only have to have one bet that upsets someone to be restricted for life, it's just all really silly imo.

[redarmi]

Firstly, the Coral racing guy on twitter is beyond tilting.  He is effectively arguing, as a horseracing odds compiler, that he isn't good enough, despite restricting every punter that has ever seen a five pound note, to win enough money to keep his firm in business.  His argument is effectively that he isn't good enough so he needs some machines to subsidise his failing part of the business.  If I felt that way I would certainly not be going onto twitter to publicise it.  Neil and I were debating with him recently and I pointed out that I had walked into a Corals shop I had never been in before and asked for 200 on a 7/4 shot and was offered 40 quid.  He first said it never happened (it did) and then, when it was mentioned that I was a long term winner he said, with no irony, "see we were right, the system is working."  

Secondly, of course Dubai is right and you have to think on a slightly different level these days to try and get on.  You can exploit a lot of bookmakers own biases where your -ev is minimal but they think they have a big edge to keep accounts going like racing faves, first goalscorers, correct scores etc.  That said you need the mental fortitude to accept the increased variance that comes with that.  I certainly wish when I had first got into this game I had done a lot more of that but ultimately if you are sharp and you need to get on you will.  The irony is that by restricting they force punters to use other people to get on who then, inevitably, end up getting a bet for themselves and they end up laying more than they ever would have done if they let you bet in your own name.

[bobby1]

Phil serious question

Why dont more of them use twitter?

Maybe they do but with a few hours work you can whittle a list of people who often get the market moves right and/or info out that causes price movements.

Appreciate they probably dont have the time but it shouldnt be that tricky

I'm not really sure on horse racing mate, maybe they do. As an example of what Arb was talking about there will be a load of golf traders betting the China Open 2morrow who will have looked on their rota and gone 'shit, that starts at 6am what a ball ache' and do almost no work on it and have no idea that Stenson has been in bed for 2 days with flu and pulled out of the pro am. If they do their money in on three balls in running or hole markets and then hear Stenny was ill there is a chance that some will go thru the bets and add restrictions. The prob for that guy is in some firms he will be on the golf from 6am til 10, might get a few tennis matches in the afternoon and then some footy from a text feed later so will be doing less work than a lot of the punters are on those events and probably doesn't have a lot of time or the inclination to do it.

[horseplayer]

Phil serious question

Why dont more of them use twitter?

Maybe they do but with a few hours work you can whittle a list of people who often get the market moves right and/or info out that causes price movements.

Appreciate they probably dont have the time but it shouldnt be that tricky

I'm not really sure on horse racing mate, maybe they do. As an example of what Arb was talking about there will be a load of golf traders betting the China Open 2morrow who will have looked on their rota and gone 'shit, that starts at 6am what a ball ache' and do almost no work on it and have no idea that Stenson has been in bed for 2 days with flu and pulled out of the pro am. If they do their money in on three balls in running or hole markets and then hear Stenny was ill there is a chance that some will go thru the bets and add restrictions. The prob for that guy is in some firms he will be on the golf from 6am til 10, might get a few tennis matches in the afternoon and then some footy from a text feed later so will be doing less work than a lot of the punters are on those events and probably doesn't have a lot of time or the inclination to do it.

Thanks

As a horse racing example some fairly large follower accounts were discussing two horses days before they ran last week and the earlys still went 6/1 and 5/1 respectively for horses that started 6/4 and 7/4.  They both lost but thats not the point

I used to wonder why they were so willing to discuss it on essentially an open forum but it makes little difference

[Chompy]

Baldy go 1-2 about Frankie riding a Royal Ascot winner.

If they make Treve 11-10 for the Prince Of Wales's - she'll probably be odds-on if all goes to plan on her comeback next weekend - that means they make all Frankie's other rides about a combined 6-1 shot. That is obviously bollox. He's likely to have a fullish book this time now he's riding well again, so even if something happens to Treve the bet will be live.

As a borderline middle-aged punter, I suggest we take advantage of this oversight.

Recommend a chunky 200 FOBT tokens on Dettori to ride a Royal Ascot winner, 1-2 Baldyfraud.

[bobby1]

there are so many basic compiling errors made every week that involve 10 year old level probability calcs on markets that have no liquidity on the machine for them to copy.  The vast majority of so called traders literally have no idea about basic probability never mind advanced stuff.

This is deffo true and solely from a trading golf point of view I see a lot of examples at the business end of events where the firms simply don't understand that the guy one behind on the last has to make a birdie to get to a play off and then win a play off to win the event.

A month or so ago Keegan Bradley needed to birdie the last to tie Matt Every and take the event to a play off, the price for any random making birdie on that day was 13/2. You can use a bit of leeway to say well this guy has to go for birdie etc when others were playing the tough hole conservatively but even if you make him 5/1 to birdie the hole he is no shorter than 4/5 in a play off. Stan were betting the event 1/6 Every 7/2 Bradley.  It is clear that their guy has no comprehension of the hole stats, the price he is to make birdie or what price he will be in a play off to come up with a shorter price to win the event than he is just to make a birdie on the last to get into a play off. I bet it 1/14 and 9/1 so its not a massive price he lays loads of 1/6, does his money and codes em all up as arbers. I was happy to lay the 9/1 and wouldn't dream of coding em up if he had won coz they were still taking under the odds at 9/1.

[arbboy]

there are so many basic compiling errors made every week that involve 10 year old level probability calcs on markets that have no liquidity on the machine for them to copy.  The vast majority of so called traders literally have no idea about basic probability never mind advanced stuff.

This is deffo true and solely from a trading golf point of view I see a lot of examples at the business end of events where the firms simply don't understand that the guy one behind on the last has to make a birdie to get to a play off and then win a play off to win the event.

A month or so ago Keegan Bradley needed to birdie the last to tie Matt Every and take the event to a play off, the price for any random making birdie on that day was 13/2. You can use a bit of leeway to say well this guy has to go for birdie etc when others were playing the tough hole conservatively but even if you make him 5/1 to birdie the hole he is no shorter than 4/5 in a play off. Stan were betting the event 1/6 Every 7/2 Bradley.  It is clear that their guy has no comprehension of the hole stats, the price he is to make birdie or what price he will be in a play off to come up with a shorter price to win the event than he is just to make a birdie on the last to get into a play off. I bet it 1/14 and 9/1 so its not a massive price he lays loads of 1/6, does his money and codes em all up as arbers. I was happy to lay the 9/1 and wouldn't dream of coding em up if he had won coz they were still taking under the odds at 9/1.

I will give you an even easier easier fuck up a big 3 firm made 2 weeks ago.  They put up a 'name the finalists' market for the NBA.  Literally a double on east and west conferences winners which said firm had on their site.  Their double price on the two favs was 10/3 taking the prices from their conference markets.  Both of these prices were top on oddschecker as well so they were pretty much 100% prices bar the shouting.  So they offer a 'name the finalists' market and go 5/1 the field.  Then they wonder they they get filled in on the 5/1 fav.

Boyles on darts draws 'will there be a draw - yes 8/15' when its a pretty simple calc to work out the price based purely on the game prices yet they still totally fuck up.  

These are not arbs they are just awful basic errors being made by guys who are clueless at gcse maths level but call themselves 'compilers' then when you win they close you down and call you an 'arber'