Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Anyone heard from Tighty? Most unlike him not to be around for 24 hours. Hope he is OK. 

He was logged on late last night, I think.

Looks like he popped on @ 10.30 this morning, too, so maybe he's just busy.

Think he was the ring leader in the Leics Championship party at Crystals in Leics last night! Showing my age.  Does crystals nightclub still exist?

Please!

Krystals, not Crystals.

Yes, I'm a Friday night regular there.

[jakally]

Agree with Doobs there

Seen the usual suspects elsewhere putting up sides "with something to play for"

There is very little evidence certainly in England that sides who have been poor all season suddenly become good and win a lot more.

The lower down the leagues the way a lot of the contracts are now even sides in mid table will have a lot of players out of contract or coming to be in a month trying to be offered a new one or attract someone else.

I did a bit of work the other week which indicated that there does seem to be some statistical sense in following teams that have got something to play for, near the end of the season.
Sample size is too low to prove/disprove, and the reality is it's more likely due to teams who have nothing to get motivated by, tinkering with team selection, giving fringe/young players a run out.

Same work showed that corners and goals increase in games where both teams need a win in last two or three games of the season. Same sample size issues, so not going to recommend anything specific.

[horseplayer]

Thats interesting Jakally thanks

Think would need to take it on a team by team basis personally

[arbboy]

Pretty sure the racing post stat guru Kevin P did some detailed work over 20 years sample size on this before and said there is no difference at all in performance at the end of the season.  Basically he said they are at the bottom for a reason because they are rubbish and they will remain rubbish even when they need to win.  I think the naked eye just chooses to remember times when teams who needed to win did and you easily forget about the times they had hammered 4-0 like they have done for weeks before to be in the bottom 3 to start with.

With regard to goal expectation increasing at the end of the season (corners are obviously directly linked to this as well) KP in his book has a graph of goal expectations over the season by month and i don't have the book to hand but pretty sure it peaks in the last month of the season.

[Tal]

Serious ice creamery, here, but Charlie Adam to be booked against Spurs 15/8 with Patrick Parr must be worth a look.

The man should be booked before he goes onto the pitch and seems to spend his games against spurs trying to kill people, whether borne of the failed transfer deadline day move to the Lane or not. Spurs sent a dossier to the FA about him last year.

Then this was reported this afternoon:

3:55pm, Fri 25 Apr 2014

Stoke contacted Spurs over rumoured Adam snub

Stoke sought assurance from Spurs that everyone will shake the hand of Charlie Adam should he make the starting line-up for Saturday's Premier League clash.

A rumour surfaced on Friday suggesting some of the visiting side would snub Adam because of ill feeling towards the playmaker.

The Scot has been the instigator of a number of controversial tackles in games against Tottenham and Paulinho was out for a month after being felled by Adam in the reverse fixture in December.

We've made contact with Spurs to see if there's any truth in it and they assure us there's absolutely nothing. So we'll take it with a pinch of salt.

We were a little bit taken aback by it. When I read it I thought it was absolute bunkum. We made the call and it just confirmed what we felt anyway.

Charlie's done really well this year and he's in my thoughts for the game tomorrow certainly. He came on against Cardiff to good effect.

– STOKE MANAGER MARK HUGHES

Is he booked one in three times? The refs will be watching, the spurs players will be winding him up and he'll be half a yard too slow as ever.

Small interest?

No interest?

[horseplayer]

Just watched the Doherty match for the first time

He has missed two blacks on the spot and Mcmanus has left an easy safety halfway up the table.

Good luck anyone who has watched all of this so far !

[jakally]

Bournemouth vs Forest.

Forest have found some form again, seemingly just the right time, with back to back wins.

Bournemouth own remote chances disappeared realistically with the defeat to Wednesday, so won't have that edge.

With Reading away to donny today then they have Burnely at home.

Forest last game against Brighton, so it is in theirs hand to catch Brighton.

Reading only need to drop some points and Forest will go into playoffs.

5/2 (whil) forest i think is great bet. Recommend £20.

My first instinct was that Forest were the team with momentum into this game, but they have only beaten two poor teams (Brum and Leeds).
Against Birmingham they weren't especially impressive, and Leeds had 69% possession, and 25 shots to Forest's 5.
I am not keen on Bournemouth at the minute, but not sure Forest are great value. Offer me 3/1 and I might be interested.

[jakally]

Thats interesting Jakally thanks

Think would need to take it on a team by team basis personally

Yes, completely agree with that.

[jakally]

Serious ice creamery, here, but Charlie Adam to be booked against Spurs 15/8 with Patrick Parr must be worth a look.

The man should be booked before he goes onto the pitch and seems to spend his games against spurs trying to kill people, whether borne of the failed transfer deadline day move to the Lane or not. Spurs sent a dossier to the FA about him last year.

Then this was reported this afternoon:

3:55pm, Fri 25 Apr 2014

Stoke contacted Spurs over rumoured Adam snub

Stoke sought assurance from Spurs that everyone will shake the hand of Charlie Adam should he make the starting line-up for Saturday's Premier League clash.

A rumour surfaced on Friday suggesting some of the visiting side would snub Adam because of ill feeling towards the playmaker.

The Scot has been the instigator of a number of controversial tackles in games against Tottenham and Paulinho was out for a month after being felled by Adam in the reverse fixture in December.

We've made contact with Spurs to see if there's any truth in it and they assure us there's absolutely nothing. So we'll take it with a pinch of salt.

We were a little bit taken aback by it. When I read it I thought it was absolute bunkum. We made the call and it just confirmed what we felt anyway.

Charlie's done really well this year and he's in my thoughts for the game tomorrow certainly. He came on against Cardiff to good effect.

– STOKE MANAGER MARK HUGHES

Is he booked one in three times? The refs will be watching, the spurs players will be winding him up and he'll be half a yard too slow as ever.

Small interest?

No interest?

Does it make a Spurs sending off more likely, as they are the ones with the issue?

[arbboy]

My worry would be is Adam even certain to start?  Last 4 games he has started on the bench.  If he plays any part off the bench the bet will stand but we will be in a terrible spot.   Don't think there is much value in the bet anyway but with him highly likely to start on the bench its a def no-no for me.

[Waz1892]

Bournemouth vs Forest.

Forest have found some form again, seemingly just the right time, with back to back wins.

Bournemouth own remote chances disappeared realistically with the defeat to Wednesday, so won't have that edge.

With Reading away to donny today then they have Burnely at home.

Forest last game against Brighton, so it is in theirs hand to catch Brighton.

Reading only need to drop some points and Forest will go into playoffs.

5/2 (whil) forest i think is great bet. Recommend £20.

My first instinct was that Forest were the team with momentum into this game, but they have only beaten two poor teams (Brum and Leeds).
Against Birmingham they weren't especially impressive, and Leeds had 69% possession, and 25 shots to Forest's 5.
I am not keen on Bournemouth at the minute, but not sure Forest are great value. Offer me 3/1 and I might be interested.

Understood, but possession isnt key in winning games as we've seen this week. And in that Leeds game Forest were 1 up early so maybe protected what they had?

Just think their mentality will be key, as they pretty much had a playoff nailed then imploded, but now a few results gone thier way, they now have a unlikely second chance to save the season.

But if no love, fair enough

[RED-DOG]

Just watched the Doherty match for the first time

He has missed two blacks on the spot and Mcmanus has left an easy safety halfway up the table.

Good luck anyone who has watched all of this so far !

I love all the scrappy play. I hate the highlight programmes when they just shows big break after big break.

[tikay]

My worry would be is Adam even certain to start?  Last 4 games he has started on the bench.  If he plays any part off the bench the bet will stand but we will be in a terrible spot.   Don't think there is much value in the bet anyway but with him highly likely to start on the bench its a def no-no for me.

I sort of had the gut feel that quite often - more than statistically probable - a player coming off the bench, full of pent-up emotion, can often get booked very quickly.

Guess we had better wait & see the Team news, anyway.

[tikay]

WH mobile offer

3.15 Sandown Sire De Grugy 1/3

Just trying to catch up with stuff, this is now 1/4 with WH, Betfair are 1.3.

Given we get the "Offer", is this still worthwhile?

[arbboy]

Yes shorter the price the more it is worth it.  Pretty hard to not back a winner or come 2nd and get a free bet when you are 3/10 shot.