Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Never mind Tom, at least you weren't being a grammer nazi :-))))

Ooooh, ironic. I.....ummmmm......did that on purpose........to see if she would pick up on it. Errrrr, yeah.
Well done Mr. Tightend, well spotted.

If I were Eimear, I'd let you have the hassle of going to IBAS just for that.

[Tal]

Is it a grammar error if you use a wrong but homophonous verb? Just using the wrong word, isn't it? Genuine error, rather than anything morphological or typographical. 

I'm being a Pernickety Peter, I know...

Nice bet, anyway

[TheDazzler]

Never mind Tom, at least you weren't being a grammer nazi :-))))

Ooooh, ironic. I.....ummmmm......did that on purpose........to see if she would pick up on it. Errrrr, yeah.
Well done Mr. Tightend, well spotted.

If I were Eimear, I'd let you have the hassle of going to IBAS just for that.

But she didn't spot it, if you're referring to my spelling mistake
Actually I'm not a grammAr nazi at all. I'm a firm believer that language is simply a tool we use to be understood. Being pedantic on correct usage is simply snobbery imo. I've a mate who posts up images of incorrect usages of apostrophes in advertising campaigns on facebook. Just to make himself look smart, I reckon.
As for the bet, I did put it up on Fred for discussion at the time. It was met with deafening silence

[maldini32]

Put this in world cup thread too.


Really like the top 2 in this market. They are in the hardest groups and don't have any outstanding goal threats.

Think you could back both ew profitably, think we would be really unlucky to be outside the top 3.

I can see both teams scoring maybe 1 goal.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/lowest-scoring-team

Both bets with PP, and . Australia and Costa Rica

PP will accomodate for less than £1 each, which isn't too helpful

Other prices are worse, i will wait for your advice

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=63713.15 for the World Cup discussion thread. some good tips in there if anyone fancies any for here. not sure why they aren't going on here, but whatever works for people

Boyle's are next best which is ok. If you're restricted with them I'd just leave it.

[maldini32]

I've written previews of each world cup group at http://www.betpal.com/fifa-world-cup-2014-betting-and-offers if anyone is interested. Got more articles to come, eg team specials, winner etc etc

the golden boot one is going up this morning, and has taken quite a bit of research. Quite a few things struck me about past golden boots which i mention.

(Dzeko is a Millidonk spot that i've used)

here's a draft......




A look at the major factors to consider when considering who will win the Golden Boot.

- The Group draw

With a maximum of seven games to be played for any player, if their nation reaches the last four, and typically 6-7 goals winning a World Cup Golden Boot, the make up of the group into which you are drawn is clearly crucial.  Is there one of the weakest fourth seeds, for example?

Looking at data since the 1986 World Cup there is clear evidence that the winner of the Golden Boot scores the majority of their goals in the group stages. For the seven previous World Cups  the Golden Boot winners scored more goals (26) at a better average (a goal every 71 minutes) in the group stages than the knockout stages (22 goals, scoring a goal every 100.8 minutes).

- World Cup progression

Each nation will play a minimum of three games and a maximum of seven if they reach the semi-final. This is important, as almost all Golden Boot winners’ nations  progress into the knockout stages. Pitch time clearly means a greater chance of goals

Since 1986, six of the last eight Golden Boot winners  have played seven games, however just one has reached the final, with the other five finishing their tournament in the third-place playoff.

Historically, the third-place playoff produces more goals than the World Cup final. In the last seven World Cup third-place playoffs, there have been an average of 4.28 goals, compared to two goals in the final.

- Team tactics & motivation

Understanding the tactics and style of play a nation employs is vital when picking a potential Golden Boot winner. Nations that create more chances are more likely to have the winner of the Golden Boot in their squad. The last winners have played for the World Cup’s highest scoring teams.

A team must also play to the player’s strengths. Just because a player is prolific for his club side doesn’t mean he is guaranteed to score plenty on the International stage. For instance Uruguay’s Edinson Cavani is considered amongst the best strikers in the world scoring on average a goal every 1.34 games since 2010 for his respective club teams, but on the international stage he struggles, finding the net on average every three games. One reason is that Cavani is instructed to lead the line and act as a foil for Luis Suarez  who scores a goal every 1.82 games for Uruguay.

- Set piece specialists

On average it requires six goals to claim the World Cup Golden Boot. Players taking free kicks and penalties are more prolific, which can make all the difference between winning the award and not.

Looking back at the last seven World Cups, the Golden Boot winners have scored 14.5% (7) of their goals from penalties, while just 2% (1) of winners’ goals came from free kicks. This shows that being a team’s penalty taker could prove decisive. Interestingly, for example, Sergio Aguero has never taken a penalty in regular time for Argentina.

So, taking those factors into account, we can look at two areas of the Golden boot market, the favourites and some outsiders. Bear in mind that apart from the Brazilian Ronaldo in 2002, none of the other seven Golden Boot winners have been majorly fancied to lift the trophy before the start. There is definitely value elsewhere....

- Favourites

At the time of writing the market is headed by the following

Messi 8/1 (37 goals, 83 caps, 9 pens)

Neymar 14/1 (30 goals, 47 caps, 4 pens)

Ronaldo 16/1 (49 goals, 110 caps, 7 pens)

Aguero 16/1 (21 goals, 47 caps, 0 pens)

Suarez 18/1 (38 goals, 77 caps, 6 pens)

Higuain 20/1 (20 goals, 35 caps, 1 pen)

All bookmakers offer 1/4 the odds top 4 places, so all of the above are going to have their supporters with backers.  Of the two indescribably talented players Messi and Ronaldo you would have to say Messi is the more likely Golden Boot winner. Argentina are by far the more favoured team (5/1 to win, compared to 33/1 for Ronaldo’s Portugal), playing on their home continent and are generally a stronger side in all areas of the pitch. Put simply, they are more likely to play 6 or 7 games than Portugal are. The same might apply to Suarez, with Uruguay far from a sure thing to get through a tough group

The "favourite" who really appeals is Neymar  with a goal every 1.5 games for his country with the real expectation that he will play 7 games (a major surprise if Brazil do not reach the last four at home). Likely to be on penalties and free kicks, with the team playing through him and the 14/1 with Corals each way looks a cracking bet

- Outsiders

Many many contenders for a more speculative price outside the front runners including

Van Persie 33/1 (40 goals 80 caps 5 pens) out of group? chile?

Muller 33/1 (16 goals, 47 caps, 0 pens) false nine

Balotelli 40/1 (12 goals, 29 caps, 4 pens)

Falcao 40/1 (20 goals, 50 caps, 5 pens)...injury risk/ready for start?

Rooney 50/1 (40 goals 90 caps, 2 pens) gerrard on pens? withdrawn role?

out to the likes of

Dzeko 100-1 (33 goals, 60 caps, 2 pens) *13/8 top bosnian scorer note*

Of these and many other players two appeal. Mario Balotelli has 7 goals in his last 13 internationals for Italy, and scored 3 in 4 starts in his last major competition Euro 2012 including twice in the semi-final. He is likely to be Italy's penalty taker. He should play every game. The team has a strong record in tournaments and has a good chance of a deep run. With Balotelli we have to take on some disciplinary risk, but his goal-scoring record at intnernational level has improved since 2012 where a number of opportunities were missed. 40-1 with BWin is a big price for Balotelli outright, 33-1 each way widely available elsewhere

For a big priced outsider look at Bosnia's Edin Dzeko at 100-1 each way with Coral, who will play every game, socred 10 goals in qualifying and Bosnia have every chance of getting out of the Argentina/Nigeria group and progressing to the knock-out stages. A big price for a goal-scorer in a team that scores plenty against weaker teams, on the evidence of the qualifying group, and could give backers a nice run for their money

Recommendations

World Cup Golden Boot

Neymar 14/1 e/w (1/4 1,2,3,4) Coral

Mario Balotelli 33/1 e/w (1/4 1,2,3,4) Coral (40-1 win only BWin)

Edin Dzeko 100-1 e/w (1/4 1,2,3,4) Coral


note dubai has us on Jackson Martinez (colombia, assumes Falcao doesn't make it)

note maldini has us on rossi (to play up front with balotelli, hopefully)


anyway, hopefully the above will generate some discussion.....

Really good write up mate.

I really like Hulk for Brazil, Scolari really likes him too. He'll be part of the 3 behind the main striker, Neymar/Oscar and Hulk. He loves a shot from 50 yards too, all about the percentages. 50s with .

[Tal]

Never mind Tom, at least you weren't being a grammer nazi :-))))

Ooooh, ironic. I.....ummmmm......did that on purpose........to see if she would pick up on it. Errrrr, yeah.
Well done Mr. Tightend, well spotted.

If I were Eimear, I'd let you have the hassle of going to IBAS just for that.

But she didn't spot it, if you're referring to my spelling mistake
Actually I'm not a grammAr nazi at all. I'm a firm believer that language is simply a tool we use to be understood. Being pedantic on correct usage is simply snobbery imo. I've a mate who posts up images of incorrect usages of apostrophes in advertising campaigns on facebook. Just to make himself look smart, I reckon.
As for the bet, I did put it up on Fred for discussion at the time. It was met with deafening silence

Ah the Greengrocer's Apostrophe spotters! Yes, they're a daft lot.

A few weeks ago at work, I saw the most glorious comma, which changed the meaning of the sentence completely and made it mean the exact opposite of what the writer intended. It was written by someone whose job it is to know better, so I think that makes it ok to find it joyful. Simple things, simple minds

I'll have to save stuff like that for tikay's diary so that JaffaCake doesn't have to read it.

[BigAdz]

GL with getting it settled, as someone said Scholes changed his mind.

I had the Mo Farrah vs Bolt bet, which never took place. Laddies won't settle it as a NR until they both retire or it takes place, I have been told. Bookies are tossers.

[McGlashan]

GL with getting it settled, as someone said Scholes changed his mind.

I had the Mo Farrah vs Bolt bet, which never took place. Laddies won't settle it as a NR until they both retire or it takes place, I have been told. Bookies are tossers.

Crooked gits. An appropriate time to void that bet would be the day they suspend betting on the market due to the race being a non goer.

[Mark_Porter]

 Greg Merson ‏@GregMerson

Getting close to 1 drop action sold out. Just shy of 60% gone now. Selling in .5% shares

66/1 still about.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £353.45

Outstanding Bets £2565.80

Free Bets £25 Betfred

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=24

A profit of £60 yesterday

Manchester United's managerial appointment brought home the May bet at 3-1 for a £75 profit

Click to see full-size image.

Offset by the £15 loss on Mourinho getting it

Football being football these days, the thread's attentions then turned to the possibility of him being the next Premier League manager to leave his job

Another man left one job, and into another yesterday....



and another sporting retirement was announced, after the HC final this weekend

Click to see full-size image.

long term

- San Antonio Spurs beat the Oklahoma City Thunder 122-105 in game 1 of their play off series behind 28 points from one of our MVP bet candidates Tim Duncan



- in baseball the Royals lost 7-6 to the White Sox, the only one of our MLB teams in action last night

- in cricket only one of our players/teams was in action, Ned Eckersley scored 34 for Leicestershire against Hampshire


today....

Dilscoops

Click to see full-size image.

India's most disappointing stationary advertising billboards...

Click to see full-size image.

and possibly a bet on this man



to beat this man



in

[TightEnd]

Not the sort of price to butter my parsnips normally, but the Newark By-Election happens on 5 June, with a competition to see who replaces Patrick Mercer.

The full list of candidates, in alphabetical order by surname, is:

Baggaley, Paul Stephen - Independent
Bishop, David Laurence - Bus-Pass Elvis Party
Brick, Nick The Flying - The Official Monster Raving Loony Party
Hayes, Andy - Independent
Helmer, Roger - UK Independence Party (UKIP)
Jenrick, Robert Edward - The Conservative Party
Kirwan, David Charles - Green Party
Payne, Michael - Labour Party
Rodgers, Dick - Stop Commercial Banks Owning Britain's Money
Watts, David Kenneth - Liberal Democrat
Woods, Lee - Patriotic Socialist Party

Here's a rundown of the 2010 ballot box:

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/04/who-could-win-the-newark-by-election/

Billy Mountain makes the Tories 4/9 favourites to retain their seat. Paddy is as short as 1/3. The main concerns are:

1. It's a by-election and people either don't vote or vote to make a statement against the government; and
2. The guy who has left his seat because of a scandal was a Tory

Can't do much about the second one, but we can address the first. The main danger is UKIP, of course. However, their chap just came out (no pun intended...ok, pun slightly intended) with this:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/roger-helmer-mep-at-centre-of-homophobia-row-unveiled-as-ukip-candidate-for-newark-byelection-9327582.html

Labour don't fancy trying:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-boosted-by-labour-decision-to-soft-pedal-in-newark-byelection-9350087.html

It's hard to see how the Tories lose this. 4/9 seems huge.

ON

Your bet has been placed with William Hill.
Thank you and good luck! Print Receipt
Single

05 Jun 2014 - Newark By-Election - By-Election

Conservatives @ 4/9

Stake : £90.00
Estimated Returns : £
130.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0000961/F

Normally i would ask for regular reports, blow by blow updates but on politics, perhaps not. let us know if its going pear-shaped!

[sonour]

Money back as a free bet if your dog finishes 2nd at Wimbledon tonight when you bet by PP messenger

£25 per heat max.

7.34 race onwards

[horseplayer]

Sorry Lisa whats PP Messenger?

Looks some decent betting opportunities there with some favs

[Tal]

Normally i would ask for regular reports, blow by blow updates but on politics, perhaps not. let us know if its going pear-shaped!

No problem.

[TightEnd]

Could i ask for views on Aston Villa please?

Lerner is selling

Until he sells, the club is in the market for frees and loans only (Lescott +1 is the chatter). no more investment

We don't know when he sells

Lambert stays on as an inter-regnum, bit of a lame duck as who knows what a new owner will do. probably a new manager

If, big if, the sale does not conclude by end August then its the current squad til January, minus Benteke and presumably with other teams strengthening around them


i spotted these yesterday and kept them for your perusal, from the veteran BBC West Midlands football man. ear to the ground

 Pat Murphy @patmurphybbc  ·  15h

Not sure what's all the rush about selling Villa as soon as y'day.Little transfer business done in May,clubs don't like paying wages 2 early

Pat Murphy @patmurphybbc  ·  15h

Randy Lerner & Villa sale: forget any lofty idealism from him about preferring a 'custodian' in his perceived image.He now just wants a sale

Pat Murphy @patmurphybbc  ·  15h

Struggling 2 think of a similar situation 2 Villa at moment,where top flight club limps along in summer - manager wounded,owner wanting out


As a punt on there not being a sale before the end August, isnt the 7/2 on relegation quite attractive?

even if Lerner sells pdq, you are still a runnner on a bad managerial appointment etc.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation