Tips for Tikay

[samurai]

Cheers Bobby. Thanks very much for taking the time to go through all that. It's really interesting and useful to hear you and the others explaining your reasoning.

I'd calculated Poults probably needed to be a shade of odds on after an Open win to make 100/1 a decent bet and thinking about it I can't see that being the case, mainly because Hamilton will most likely still be short. Obviously that doesn't take into account a Ryder Cup miracle!

Anyway thanks again

[icles test]

Commonwealth years have a pretty good record of top 3 finishes for Athletes. Although I agree its a weak year for them because its televised and always coincides with us proving we are guff at football, always seems to be a top3 finisher or two.

6/15 at last 5 games.

All have been pretty big names before event and in what is a very weak athletics team, mo farah looks a lock for a top3 finish. 40 e/w 1/5 looks decent to me. Only threat to this for me is katrina johnson thompson who is their new poster girl.

Also our most famous distance runner won last time commonwealths was held in Britain.

[bobby1]

The thing with the commonwealths is that winning even multiple medals is not that great of an achievement. Has anyone even come close before for a performance at the commonwealths? Even in a weak year, I struggle to see the winner coming from that alone.

snap!

The only one that could buck that trend is a brit winning the men's 100m. To do that, they'd need to break the British record (9.92 iirc) by a good tenth of a second, beat Bolt, Blake and however many others turn up and then we all wake up and remember that's not going to happen.

Cram, Jackson and Johnson's reactions would be worth viewing, mind.

In 1981 Bob Champion didn't win Sports personality after recovering from his death bed and riding a horse that was only kept in training to give him something to look forward to in his recovery to victory in the Grand National. They were awarded the team award instead, a few years ago a guy that jumps into a pool was nominated and David Walliams was being put forward as a likely winner one year too. It doesn't take a lot to get into the list these days.

In my day, men were men. None of this rolling around on the floor lark. Henry Cooper used to get hit in the face every morning with an iron bar just because it hardened him up. Did he complain? No. He just got better and knocked Ali down with that proper British steel. Nowadays, you see these sportsmen with their I-Prods and Nintendos in their Goochy bags and you can't help wondering what's gone wrong with society.

FYP

 

lol too good. Who can forget those heady days in the early 90's when Bob Nudd was blocked from the list for attempted vote rigging by the Angling Times?

[bobby1]

Cheers Bobby. Thanks very much for taking the time to go through all that. It's really interesting and useful to hear you and the others explaining your reasoning.

I'd calculated Poults probably needed to be a shade of odds on after an Open win to make 100/1 a decent bet and thinking about it I can't see that being the case, mainly because Hamilton will most likely still be short. Obviously that doesn't take into account a Ryder Cup miracle!

Anyway thanks again

no probs mate. good luck

[Tal]

Did a google of Bob Nudd. Soon found this:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/article-1092702/It-8217-s-time-hooked-Rebecca-Sports-Personality.html

Hindsight is brutal, sometimes.

[rfgqqabc]

Would anyone back Rooney at 10k/1?

[Karabiner]

Surely there is absolutely zero chanc of Poults not getting a pick even if he does not qualify for the RC by right.

[Ironside]

Surely there is absolutely zero chanc of Poults not getting a pick even if he does not qualify for the RC by right.

if the quailfying period ended today who would you pick if you was captain as your picks
its 4 picks now
poulter would easy be the number 1 pick as he is just outside on both lists and his record
westwood and mcdowel would be struggling to make it
with gallacher jimeniz luiten and molinaria all ahead in both lists
and with only 1 rookie in the 8 in spots got to think all 4 of them would be ahead of the vetrans

i would like to find odds somewhere for making the rider cup team because i would be laying westwood and mcdowel
unless they have a very good next few weeks

[Nico29]

Cannot ever see Westwood and Gmac not getting 2 of these 4 picks if they don't make it thru qualifying.

Of course everything has a price but i would want a very large one or either of these guys being omitted.

[horseplayer]

she looks to have a big hole in her unfortunately

never again after that

[bobby1]

Surely there is absolutely zero chanc of Poults not getting a pick even if he does not qualify for the RC by right.

I think he would deffo be strong fav to get a pick Ralph, tho its a pretty good year for some of the younger guys or a Gallagher/ Jiminez type to get a pick. Westy would be the worry for me as his current game wouldn't seem ideal for pairs events given his short game and putting are still poor. Do you think Jiminez would be a good pick mate?

[vegaslover]

Surely there is absolutely zero chanc of Poults not getting a pick even if he does not qualify for the RC by right.

I think he would deffo be strong fav to get a pick Ralph, tho its a pretty good year for some of the younger guys or a Gallagher/ Jiminez type to get a pick. Westy would be the worry for me as his current game wouldn't seem ideal for pairs events given his short game and putting are still poor. Do you think Jiminez would be a good pick mate?

Poulter will be one of the 4 picks, despite an indifferent season. Very good matchplay and Ryder record and seems to piss off the usa at will, which is always a good thing in Ryder cup IMO.
Westwood looks most vulnerable, though will probs still get a pick.
I dont know if he would get a pick but I would defo take Jiminez. Game looks good this year and very calm/experienced around the course

[Doobs]

I don't for one minute think you are an arber Doobs, but this is a clear cut maths bet. The last win price matched on BF is 8.6 which tbf is to buttons but with there being decent money in there to lay at 13.5 it will be easy enough to lay it a shorter than that. The value is the place part of the bet at 12/5 which seemed a popular view, last price matched on BF in the place is 2.04 and 2.02. There is plenty of cash there to lay at 2.98 so the 12/5 place bet is great value.

Honest truth, if you found a horse that you could bet at 12/1 a 5th the odds 3 places you would back it whatever it was if the last matched prices on BF were 8.4 to win and 2.02/2.04 to place. If it's maths then it's maths it doesn't matter what the market is or if we like that type of event or not does it?

There have been plenty of selections put up for other events that you have backed up by saying its a bet using the numbers that are for more marginal than this bet, plenty of horses at RA put up ew using the place part of the bet as the main value when the win part is close enough/worse than  BF price at the time. How is this not a bet if they are?

If the price on one of those horses had been 16/1 but was now a great maths value at 10/1 you would back it, why does the fact this was a bigger price 2 days ago but is now still great value any different. It just looks like you don't like the bet so are trying to put people off it when you would be championing it with maths if it was something you fancied/selected.

The honest truth is that the £150 lay at 2.4 top 3 that was sat there for most of this afternoon, and was laid at 5.35, was entirely mine.  

There is a world of difference between looking at the maths on a horse that is 2.52/2.54 the place in a race at Royal Ascot with several hundred either side than the maths on a very thin market with £30 laid around evens and probably just one person asking for a lump at 2.98.  I was quite surprised somebody took the 2.4, and can confirm it all went in one go so it was almost certainly just one individual.  I'd guess that it is the same fella who is asking for 2.98.  My view against what is likely just one other person is not the same as a market that may have been forming for months with a million pounds in bets.  What amused me just now, is that today I have single handedly more than doubled the amount laid on Wilkinson.  The price I laid seems absurd to me, and I'd say the same of the 2.98.    

Laying that 2.4 seemed a much better way to go about things than taking the 12/1 each way.  Though given the market was so thin, I couldn't say so earlier.  But for the record, I frequently lay the stuff I am strongly negative on here, certainly more often than not.  It really isn't in my interest to be strongly negative as I'd be much better off if I just said that bet looks fantastic value to me.  If thread wants a tenner of that Wilkinson lay on the place at that price, then that is OK by me.  I won't be backing Wilikinson anytime soon, though guess I could change my mind by mid August.  

FWIW I am pretty sure I was up on Royal Ascot here, even though thread ducked one winner I put up, and certainly was on my own account.  If people choose to go against me, that is perfectly fine.  I am not going to start a vendetta.
  

[TightEnd]

meanwhile, incoming

pretty much what the thread should be about....

[TightEnd]

Tour de France picks
« Sent to: TightEnd on: Today at 09:58:47 PM »
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Hello Tighty,

Thought I'd give Fred first dibs on this motley crew of selections. Please post them up after you've laughed at them.

Cheers, Jason

Having spent the last few days poring over the cycling, I've reached the conclusion that there isn't much to bet on this year in the Tour de France. All the obvious favourites have been priced in, including Romain Bardet who I was pretty keen on to win the Young Rider's classification. In fact, there seems to be a running theme here: Astana look strong, and I fancy them for the Team classification ... so do the bookies. Contador looks like a contender for the KOM jersey ... but he's 4/1 favourite. Froome looks nailed on to win it this year ... and therefore odds-on to do so. There is precious little value to be had.

So I've gone off the reservation a bit to find some bets. I wouldn't put my life savings on them, but hopefully they'll provide a little bit of a sweat, and three weeks of fist-shaking and yelling at the telly screen.

What I did was to look back at the last 3 years (since when cycling has supposedly been clean), and try to find those stage races that tend to predict TdF performance. In the end, I focused on the Criterium du Dauphine (CD), the Tour de Suisse (TS), the Tour de Romandie (TR) and the Giro d'Italia(GI). And I came up with a few interesting facts, the most outstanding of which is that in 2011, 2012 and 2013, the winner of the Tour de Romandie has gone on to win the Tour de France. The winner of the TR this year? Chris Froome ... nailed on then. Since there is no chance I'm putting my hard-earned on an odds-on, poorly-descending cyclist in the equivalent of cycling's Grand National, I decided to look more specifically at the Young Rider's,
http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/young-rider-classification
Top 10
http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/top-10-finish
and Team markets.
http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/team-classification

Did you know that in the past 3 years, the winner of the TdF Team classification has not even figured in the Top 10 of the Giro Team classification? Allied to that fact is an historically solid build-up from TR to CD/TS (they take place at the same time) to TdF:
2013:   Team Saxo-Tinkoff ( CD(2nd), TR(7th) )
2012:   RadioShack-Nissan ( CD(5th), TR(6th) )
2011:   Garmin-Sharp ( TS(6th), TR(1st) ) (Interestingly, Leopard-Trek also finished out of the Top 10 in the Giro, and went TdF(2nd), TS(1st), TR(3rd))

There is one promising team that fits this profile in 2014: Team Katusha. Nowhere in the Giro. 4th in the TR. Then 4th in the CD. In this year's TdF, the team with the best mix of climbers is going to win the classification (due to the five summit finishes ... and the time gaps these entail). Katusha admittedly are not the strongest in this department, but they do have Rodriguez, Spilak, Silin and Trofimov, who (if they all fire) will be a formidable combo. I therefore recommend a small interest on the 20/1 generally available. Along with this, I'm pretty partial to a mega-banzai each-way bet on Francaises des Jeux (FDJ) who boast the services of Pinot, Jeannesson and Vichot. 4th in the TS, and at 500/1, they are a very attractive outside proposition. It will take all three riders to turn up, but they could surprise, and it would be very exciting to watch if they did.

As for the Top 10 in GC, it is quite interesting to note that in 2013, Valverde finished 9th in the TR ... and finished in the Top 10 of the TdF. In 2012, Brajkovic finished 9th in the TR ... and finished in the Top 10 of the Tdf. In 2011, Talansky finished 9th in the TR ... and didn't do the TdF. Now usually, I wouldn't pay much attention to this nonsense, but in 2013 only 1st and 9th figured in the TdF Top 10. In 2012? Again ... only 1st and 9th. 2011? Unfortunately, only 1st. This year, it just so happens that the 9th place finisher is one Jesus Herrada of the Movistar team. This kid is the real deal, and can really climb. Admittedly, he hasn't achieved much in the past, but he really impressed me in the Tour of Romandie, and in my opinion is the next best climber in the Movistar team after Valverde (sorry Intxausti and Izaguirre). Since Fred already has Tanel Kangert at 14/1, I suggest adding lightly to the portfolio with a small bet on Herrada for Top 10 @ 33/1 and Young Rider @ 40/1.

There were some other interesting observations. Such as that Trek Factory Racing (in all various guises) have figured in the Top 3 of the Team classification for the last three years. Also, if a team has had two riders (or more) in the Top 10 of the GC of the CD, then it is very likely that they will have two riders in the Top 10 of the GC of that year's TdF. This year, Astana had Nibali and Fuglsang. Just saying.

So, in conclusion, my recommends are:
£10 win Team Katusha @ 20/1 (Team Classification)
£2.50 e/w (1/3 1-2) Francaises des Jeux @ 500/1 (Team Classification)
£5 win Jesus Herrada @ 33/1 (Top 10)
£5 win Jesus Herrada @ 40/1 (Young Rider)
I actually really like these picks, even though their justification is a little crazy. Could do a lot worse.