Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

I dont see how west ham have the players or the coach to achieve top 10. When bolton made top 10 under allardyce they had a couple of worldies in the sqaud. Valencia would be a good signing but south american players can take some settling (generalisation of course). Carrol would need to be fit all season too and that aint likely. I do think they will have a better season though than last. There are 8 teams nailed on for the top 8 places so it only leaves room for two of the rest to make top 10. I would prefer the chances of at least 4 of them ahead of thee ammers. 5/2 seems about right to me. Just my opinion of course.

Who are nailed on for a top 8 spot? There are at least three spots totally up for grabs IMO.   I put up stoke at 13/5 earlier in the summer at bwin. For similar reasons I would imagine west ham have a similar chance now given the summer signings and would second the bet at the same price as stoke.

[Junior Senior]

I dont see how west ham have the players or the coach to achieve top 10. When bolton made top 10 under allardyce they had a couple of worldies in the sqaud. Valencia would be a good signing but south american players can take some settling (generalisation of course). Carrol would need to be fit all season too and that aint likely. I do think they will have a better season though than last. There are 8 teams nailed on for the top 8 places so it only leaves room for two of the rest to make top 10. I would prefer the chances of at least 4 of them ahead of thee ammers. 5/2 seems about right to me. Just my opinion of course.

Who are nailed on for a top 8 spot? There are at least three spots totally up for grabs IMO.   I put up stoke at 13/5 earlier in the summer at bwin. For similar reasons I would imagine west ham have a similar chance now given the summer signings and would second the bet at the same price as stoke.

Sorry, my bad. Its 7 from 7 not 8 as i said so yes it leaves 3 spots IMO. In no particular order.

Man c
Man u
Chelsea
Liverpool
Arsenal
Spurs
Everton
8
9
10

For me, those 3 spots could be taken by any one from

Palace
Stoke
Hammers
QPR
Leicester
Sunderland

We could always be surprised by newcastle too.

I would deffo take stoke over west ham at the same price for top ten. How would that match bet be priced?

Maybe its closer than i first thought so apologies. Still would want better than 5/2 west ham top 10.

[BigAdz]

I don't put many bets up but I think I've found a cert.



Looking at Poults and his bag I'm pretty sure he's going to finish fourth!

Fill your boots.

LOL. Quite spooky.

I played yesterday in a Charity golf event at a place called Tyrells Wood(beautiful yesterday)nr London.

I was paired with my Father In Law, a lifelong 5pur2 fan, so I used my carry version of the Poulter Arsenal bag. I kid you not I, was going ok until fitness(or lack of) told and I bogeyed the last 3 holes to finish 4th!

Im very glad this wasn't pointed out to the old man yesterday, would have been an even longer drive home!

[TightEnd]

We have positions on Stoke and Leicester to finish top ten, at 3/1 and 6/1 respectively so far. The Leicester one looks unlikely, tbh, getting out-bid on wages for several players due to a weekly wage limit imposed (laudable, but frustrating as a one-eyed fan) but still time to see how that shakes out

I personally think I would quite like to be on West Ham if they start poorly and finally sack Big Sam, at bigger than 5/2

but happy to place the West Ham one if that is a minority view

[TightEnd]

No bets completed yesterday, monthly profit to date £138.39


Glamorgan lost to Sussex last night with a pretty patchy performance in the T20 blast, needing one win to make the quarters, which is disappointing. With two games left they now host Essex on Friday really needing to win that, as 4th and 5th Somerset play tonight and one of the two will overtake them

1    Essex    10    9    1    0    0    0.678    18.0
2    Hampshire    12    7    5    0    0    0.043    14.0
3    Glamorgan    12    5    4    1    2    -0.088    13.0
4    Surrey    10    6    4    0    0    0.654    12.0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5    Somerset    11    5    5    0    1    0.0040    11.0


A reminder of our Open book for tomorrow. It became a touchy subject with firmly held views, and not one I was sure how to resolve without offending someone, but I think we'd like a bigger book than this.

Golf   The Open   Jordan Speith   100/1   0.3            
golf   the open   mcdowell   28/1   30   £15 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
golf   the open   kaymer   20/1   30   £15 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
golf   the open   ilonen   80/1   30   £15 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
golf   the open   Willetts   150/1 10   £5 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8


Adz, there is a question outstanding for you on Jiminez

I appear to have missed the 20/1 Rose but will look out for more offers during today and at the risk of another ruck, ask for fresh opinions please leaving aside everything else


Meanwhile, as we are "short" the libdems for next year, note the yougov poll last night. Just one poll, but it would translate into less than 20 seats, down from 57 and we have <33.5

Latest YouGov / The Sun results 15th July - Con 34%, Lab 38%, LD 6%, UKIP 13%; APP -22

[TightEnd]

right, i had missed a few supportive hammers posts above

rushing to catch up after a late start

we can now funk for west ham, stoke and the mighty foxes as 8th,9th and 10th

bwin 



    Which team will finish in the top 10 in 2014/15?
    Which team will finish in the top 10?
    Pick: West Ham United 3.60

Total stake 40.00 GBP
Possible winnings 144.00 GBP

[toddswain]

I personally think Newcastle are much better value at 6/4 (we're 4/6 on bf) than hammers at 5/2. First time in years where we've actually boosted our squad in summer, at least 6 new players and only 1 going the other way upto now. Obviously just my opinion

[arbboy]

Going back to the golf (which i know very little about easily one of my weakest sports - always been too high variance backing 66/1 shots for a former accountant and arber!) from what i read the argument seemed to be about the best way to invest £200.  Given how quiet it is this week sport wise why do we have a limit on what we are investing on this event?  Bobby is clearly a very good golf judge and doobs, amongst numerous other skills, is an awesome abuser of ew terms on promotions.  Why can't we invest £200 in both of them and draw a line under the pointless ruck?  As part of the fun have a head to head £50 bet between the two of them where the loser over the open golf £200 bet portfolio sends £50 to the charity of the other one's choice?   If this is agreed i will agree to match the £50 pledged to charity to make a total donation of £100 to the charity of the winner's choice.

[arbboy]

I personally think Newcastle are much better value at 6/4 (we're 4/6 on bf) than hammers at 5/2. First time in years where we've actually boosted our squad in summer, at least 6 new players and only 1 going the other way upto now. Obviously just my opinion

Good spot Todd.  I was actually looking at this myself this morning.  4/6 on bf is misleading as the market is not at all 'tight' and has little liquidity.  However several firms have shortened Newcastle this morning on oddschecker and some cash has been matched on bf at prices much lower than 6/4.  Couldn't put fred off adding to the top 10 portfolio with this solid looking banker.

The other ante post bet i was looking at on the EPL this morning was Bald's 8/13 on Arsenal for top 4 which looks very big following the transfer business.  People are asking for under 8/15 on bf.  Would recommend a bet of £40/£65 is struck with the bald one.

[vegaslover]

Haven't posted/followed this thread for a ages as just don't get the time. Tend to read the latest page now and again but read the last 10 pages after comments made about current discussions. The thread does appear to have become more akin to other blonde threads with more arguing and sniping at others. On the other hand there also appears to be more focus on the better bets, rather than any suggestion being backed.

Re: the lol comment on chambers getting picked for the euros - He won at the trials so auto made the team, if any young sprinter can't beat the old man at the trials they don't deserve to make the team imo.

Jiminez has to be a pick all day long at 90s for the open. His form is there and his demeanor around the course is spot on for an open

[TightEnd]

Going back to the golf (which i know very little about easily one of my weakest sports - always been too high variance backing 66/1 shots for a former accountant and arber!) from what i read the argument seemed to be about the best way to invest £200.  Given how quiet it is this week sport wise why do we have a limit on what we are investing on this event?  Bobby is clearly a very good golf judge and doobs, amongst numerous other skills, is an awesome abuser of ew terms on promotions.  Why can't we invest £200 in both of them and draw a line under the pointless ruck?  As part of the fun have a head to head £50 bet between the two of them where the loser over the open golf £200 bet portfolio sends £50 to the charity of the other one's choice?   If this is agreed i will agree to match the £50 pledged to charity to make a total donation of £100 to the charity of the winner's choice.

there isn't a budget as such, though in practical terms i would manage the exposure in the context of portfolio size.

not wanting to rehash it all again but the issue wasn't how much but when....

as it stands, we look like missing out so thats a shame

[doubleup]

Seems to me that players going out late on Friday will have the best of the weather conditions on that day.  Looking at the Top Aus market Brett Rumford is the only Oz out late and the big two are out early.  He is admittedly in pretty bad form but has suddenly find his game before.  On top of this Btfr Sports book are way ool on price.  Suggest a speculative £2 ew Brett Rumford Top Aus @ 66-1.

[arbboy]

Going back to the golf (which i know very little about easily one of my weakest sports - always been too high variance backing 66/1 shots for a former accountant and arber!) from what i read the argument seemed to be about the best way to invest £200.  Given how quiet it is this week sport wise why do we have a limit on what we are investing on this event?  Bobby is clearly a very good golf judge and doobs, amongst numerous other skills, is an awesome abuser of ew terms on promotions.  Why can't we invest £200 in both of them and draw a line under the pointless ruck?  As part of the fun have a head to head £50 bet between the two of them where the loser over the open golf £200 bet portfolio sends £50 to the charity of the other one's choice?   If this is agreed i will agree to match the £50 pledged to charity to make a total donation of £100 to the charity of the winner's choice.

there isn't a budget as such, though in practical terms i would manage the exposure in the context of portfolio size.

not wanting to rehash it all again but the issue wasn't how much but when....

as it stands, we look like missing out so thats a shame

I agree.  The thing is Bobby probably will return a bigger roi on golf as it is one of his specialist fields but doobs will still gtd a positive return as well ev wise over time using his technique.  As a follower i want to know what both want to back for different reasons but both will 100% show a long term ev profit.  I have known Doobs for a long time from early betfair poker days and believe me there is very few people on this thread who would happily do more for you than he will and expect nothing in return.  I don't know Bobby personally but i like reading his stuff as he has been around the game for years at the sharp end.

This thread is all about fun and making money.  The only losers are the firms shelling the cash out to us all month after month.  

[TightEnd]

All over the sports pages, Blackpool have 8 contracted players, cancelled pre-season tour etc etc

A short 5/4 to be relegated

Anyone close enough to Blackpool to know if this situation resolves itself?

is the only way it resolves itself to Expect them to make signings of youngsters who have been released by bigger clubs and journeymen and free agents who they can bring in on free transfers?

If so, shouldn't they be odds-on?

[arbboy]

All over the sports pages, Blackpool have 8 contracted players, cancelled pre-season tour etc etc

A short 5/4 to be relegated

Anyone close enough to Blackpool to know if this situation resolves itself?

is the only way it resolves itself to Expect them to make signings of youngsters who have been released by bigger clubs and journeymen and free agents who they can bring in on free transfers?

If so, shouldn't they be odds-on?

Bwin are 2.45 and look worth a solid investment surely.  Plenty has been matched at 11/10 on betfair and the price only looks like going one way. The chairman is a miser of all misers and 8 players on the books at this stage can't be good going forward in one of the most brutal leagues in the world to operate in.