Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Not having as many places should logically affect how much Fred is prepared to risk on this market, though.

Not as fun when you don't get eighth.

Think that's probably the gist of it, & why Tighty was being cautious.

Looks like Mr Woods might play after all. Think I'd struggle to bet him at any price, but there is always a price where anything becomes value I suppose.

Rather a shame, but I'll be up at DTD all week, so won't be able to watch it properly. Front of House is an exceedingly onerous responsibility.

[Tal]

Not having as many places should logically affect how much Fred is prepared to risk on this market, though.

Not as fun when you don't get eighth.

Think that's probably the gist of it, & why Tighty was being cautious.

Looks like Mr Woods might play after all. Think I'd struggle to bet him at any price, but there is always a price where anything becomes value I suppose.

Rather a shame, but I'll be up at DTD all week, so won't be able to watch it properly. Front of House is an exceedingly onerous responsibility.

Why are you front of house at DTD? Is there some form of poker tournament on? You should have mentioned it earlier.

[Doobs]

Not having as many places should logically affect how much Fred is prepared to risk on this market, though.

Not as fun when you don't get eighth.

Tal is absolutely right.  I mentioned this at The Open.  If we end up with as big a book as we did at The Open, we have made a mistake somewhere.  

I was already planning to run a spreadsheet this week, as several bookies have done 6 places, but I wouldn't expect to see anything like the value we got at The Open.  

[tikay]

Not having as many places should logically affect how much Fred is prepared to risk on this market, though.

Not as fun when you don't get eighth.

Tal is absolutely right.  I mentioned this at The Open.  If we end up with as big a book as we did at The Open, we have made a mistake somewhere.  

I was already planning to run a spreadsheet this week, as several bookies have done 6 places, but I wouldn't expect to see anything like the value we got at The Open.  

Good stuff.

Well we have had a bet or two alrerady, which I'm happy with, & we'll have a few more, but we will not go mad, & use a different model this time.

The Football season looms into view, too. Fasten your wallets.

[tikay]

Looking for suggestions please on how much we should sensibly invest in Football "Season Bets".

It's easy to get carried away in these, but remember, they tie cash up for 9 months. I would imagine we'll need a hefty budget for the Ryder Cup next month, too, so we need to leave some headroom.

We already have a few nice bets - Palace & Peterborough as I recall - & there is room for plenty more, but I think we should set some sort of budget.

As to matches, as Tighty mentioned yesterday, we need to exercise caution in the opening weeks until things settle down, though that's not to say we should not bet if we can spot value.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £157.29

Outstanding Bets £3277.66

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=28

A loss of £60 yesterday with the two horses in the Carlisle ladies race unplaced

ongoing positions

Baltimore beat Washington 7-3 last night in the first of the Battle of the Beltway series. With Toronto on a rest day that stretched the lead at the top of the AL East to 4 games

The Yankees beat Detroit 2-1. We have them to win under 86.5 times this season or less than 53.39%. Currently the record is W58 L53 or 52.2%. This bet is going right to the end of the season

Catching up on a couple of horse racing bets

a) Hannon Jnr to beat Hannon Snr's 2013 UK winners >235 winners   2/1   100

currently 128 winners.

b) 2014 Flat Jockeys Championship - Handicap Betting    Richard Hughes (Scratch)    15/1   50

currently Ryan Moore   109, Richard Hughes   89

catching up on these

General election 2015 Lib dem seats   under 33.5   10/11   110
General election 2015 Lib dem seats   21-30   100/30   30

The Electoral Calculus projection from yesterday's LordAshcroft poll



and yesterday's yougov had their lowest ever reading for the LD's

CON 34 LAB 38 LD 6 UKIP 13, which would be under 21 seats

catching up on this

royal london one day cup   kent   33/1   40   £20 e/w 1/2 1,2

kent won their first two games of the competition, and play surrey today

[Omm]

Looking for suggestions please on how much we should sensibly invest in Football "Season Bets".

It's easy to get carried away in these, but remember, they tie cash up for 9 months. I would imagine we'll need a hefty budget for the Ryder Cup next month, too, so we need to leave some headroom.

We already have a few nice bets - Palace & Peterborough as I recall - & there is room for plenty more, but I think we should set some sort of budget.

As to matches, as Tighty mentioned yesterday, we need to exercise caution in the opening weeks until things settle down, though that's not to say we should not bet if we can spot value.

The free write ups on BE on the lower leagues seems a good place to start, not saying they should all be done but certainly if the lower league footy experts agree, the thread could get on a few?

[TightEnd]

The vibes since LVG went to Man U have been extremely positive

The suggestion a while ago was that Man U would start the season slowly as LVG bedded in

However, and it is only pre-season, so far so good, though of course its pre-season...

results

MU 7-0 LA Galaxy
MU 3-2 Roma
MU 0-0 Inter
MU 3-1 R Madrid
MU 3-1 Liverpool

more importantly, the players seem to want to play for him. This of course is a vast difference to last year's experience



Man U start the season as follows

16 Aug    Barclays Premier League    Swansea City    H    12:45    
24 Aug    Barclays Premier League    Sunderland    A    16:00    
30 Aug    Barclays Premier League    Burnley    A    12:45    
September 2014
14 Sep    Barclays Premier League    Queens Park Rangers    H    16:00

they are 4/11 to win the first match across the market,  live prices on oddschecker

we can plug in 8/13, 2/5 and 4/11 for the next three

this is taking comparable prices for City to win at Newcastle first game for the Sunderland game, Chelsea to win at Burnley on the first MNF for Man U's trip to Burnley and 4/11 again for the QPR game, same as the odds to beat Swansea

this produces odds of 3.2-1 the four timer for United to win these first four games

William Hill offers us 5-1 the same

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/man-utd/win-first-4-league-games

to get the same we would have to plug in

10/11 to win at Sunderland and 1/2 each a win at burnley and home to QPR, for example


yes?

[arbboy]

If Manu have won their first 3 games they will be shorter than 4/11 to beat QPR at home.  I like the bet.

Having looked a bit more manure at 5/6 and 8/13 for the away games on oddschecker.  I think comparing manure to chelski given one is 19/10 and the other is 5/1 for the title is not totally accurate.  I think we need to rework the away game prices.  I still think if manure have won the first 3 games they will go off shorter than 4/11 against qpr.

[typhoon13]

The vibes since LVG went to Man U have been extremely positive

The suggestion a while ago was that Man U would start the season slowly as LVG bedded in

However, and it is only pre-season, so far so good, though of course its pre-season...

results

MU 7-0 LA Galaxy
MU 3-2 Roma
MU 0-0 Inter
MU 3-1 R Madrid
MU 3-1 Liverpool

more importantly, the players seem to want to play for him. This of course is a vast difference to last year's experience



Man U start the season as follows

16 Aug    Barclays Premier League    Swansea City    H    12:45    
24 Aug    Barclays Premier League    Sunderland    A    16:00    
30 Aug    Barclays Premier League    Burnley    A    12:45    
September 2014
14 Sep    Barclays Premier League    Queens Park Rangers    H    16:00

they are 4/11 to win the first match across the market,  live prices on oddschecker

we can plug in 8/13, 2/5 and 4/11 for the next three

this is taking comparable prices for City to win at Newcastle first game for the Sunderland game, Chelsea to win at Burnley on the first MNF for Man U's trip to Burnley and 4/11 again for the QPR game, same as the odds to beat Swansea

this produces odds of 3.2-1 the four timer for United to win these first four games

William Hill offers us 5-1 the same

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/man-utd/win-first-4-league-games

to get the same we would have to plug in

10/11 to win at Sunderland and 1/2 each a win at burnley and home to QPR, for example


yes?

I am already on this

Sunderland game makes me cautious but like you say the vibes are good in the camp

[Omm]

Super filthy each-way bet in the last at Kempton tomo.

Sleep Walk will probably end up better than this class but they're not machines etc, and she's drawn wide on her Polytrack debut.

Dinneratmidnight is lightly raced, on the up, a 6f Poly winner and well drawn.

Eleven runners isn't ideal before arbboy starts being patronising (joke) but it's 4/5, 6/1, 10 Bar.

Flick in a score each-way at 6-1 with Billies or the Barking boys.

Just got even dirtier, 2 non runners 10-1 bar, suggestions?

[TightEnd]

4/11*5/6*8/13*4/11=9/2

to use the different prices for away games

if we then shorten the QPR game to 1/3 we get 4.38/1 or 1/4 then 4-1 the first four wins

[Omm]

Forgot to say ours is one of the non runners

[exstream]

Fulham 11/1 at coral to win league
Coral are best price bunch of teams to win leagues and Fulham is just one of the arbs

[Doobs]

Super filthy each-way bet in the last at Kempton tomo.

Sleep Walk will probably end up better than this class but they're not machines etc, and she's drawn wide on her Polytrack debut.

Dinneratmidnight is lightly raced, on the up, a 6f Poly winner and well drawn.

Eleven runners isn't ideal before arbboy starts being patronising (joke) but it's 4/5, 6/1, 10 Bar.

Flick in a score each-way at 6-1 with Billies or the Barking boys.

Just got even dirtier, 2 non runners 10-1 bar, suggestions?

Give it a miss?  Surely accounts are too valuable to have bets like this on them?