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Betting Tips and Sport Discussion
Tips for Tikay
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Topic: Tips for Tikay (Read 13577872 times)
tikay
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #84660 on:
August 05, 2014, 07:48:32 AM »
Quote from: Tal on August 05, 2014, 07:32:56 AM
Not having as many places should logically affect how much Fred is prepared to risk on this market, though.
Not as fun when you don't get eighth.
Think that's probably the gist of it, & why Tighty was being cautious.
Looks like Mr Woods might play after all. Think I'd struggle to bet him at any price, but there is always a price where anything becomes value I suppose.
Rather a shame, but I'll be up at DTD all week, so won't be able to watch it properly. Front of House is an exceedingly onerous responsibility.
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Tal
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #84661 on:
August 05, 2014, 07:55:16 AM »
Quote from: tikay on August 05, 2014, 07:48:32 AM
Quote from: Tal on August 05, 2014, 07:32:56 AM
Not having as many places should logically affect how much Fred is prepared to risk on this market, though.
Not as fun when you don't get eighth.
Think that's probably the gist of it, & why Tighty was being cautious.
Looks like Mr Woods might play after all. Think I'd struggle to bet him at any price, but there is always a price where anything becomes value I suppose.
Rather a shame, but I'll be up at DTD all week, so won't be able to watch it properly. Front of House is an exceedingly onerous responsibility.
Why are you front of house at DTD? Is there some form of poker tournament on? You should have mentioned it earlier.
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"You must take your opponent into a deep, dark forest, where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one"
Doobs
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #84662 on:
August 05, 2014, 07:59:20 AM »
Quote from: Tal on August 05, 2014, 07:32:56 AM
Not having as many places should logically affect how much Fred is prepared to risk on this market, though.
Not as fun when you don't get eighth.
Tal is absolutely right. I mentioned this at The Open. If we end up with as big a book as we did at The Open, we have made a mistake somewhere.
I was already planning to run a spreadsheet this week, as several bookies have done 6 places, but I wouldn't expect to see anything like the value we got at The Open.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
tikay
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #84663 on:
August 05, 2014, 08:14:18 AM »
Quote from: Doobs on August 05, 2014, 07:59:20 AM
Quote from: Tal on August 05, 2014, 07:32:56 AM
Not having as many places should logically affect how much Fred is prepared to risk on this market, though.
Not as fun when you don't get eighth.
Tal is absolutely right. I mentioned this at The Open. If we end up with as big a book as we did at The Open, we have made a mistake somewhere.
I was already planning to run a spreadsheet this week, as several bookies have done 6 places, but I wouldn't expect to see anything like the value we got at The Open.
Good stuff.
Well we have had a bet or two alrerady, which I'm happy with, & we'll have a few more, but we will not go mad, & use a different model this time.
The Football season looms into view, too. Fasten your wallets.
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tikay
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #84664 on:
August 05, 2014, 08:19:40 AM »
Looking for suggestions please on how much we should sensibly invest in Football "Season Bets".
It's easy to get carried away in these, but remember, they tie cash up for 9 months. I would imagine we'll need a hefty budget for the Ryder Cup next month, too, so we need to leave some headroom.
We already have a few nice bets - Palace & Peterborough as I recall - & there is room for plenty more, but I think we should set some sort of budget.
As to matches, as Tighty mentioned yesterday, we need to exercise caution in the opening weeks until things settle down, though that's not to say we should not bet if we can spot value.
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(copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
TightEnd
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #84665 on:
August 05, 2014, 08:39:33 AM »
Daily Report
Loss on Month £157.29
Outstanding Bets £3277.66
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=28
A loss of £60 yesterday with the two horses in the Carlisle ladies race unplaced
ongoing positions
Baltimore beat Washington 7-3 last night in the first of the Battle of the Beltway series. With Toronto on a rest day that stretched the lead at the top of the AL East to 4 games
The Yankees beat Detroit 2-1. We have them to win under 86.5 times this season or less than 53.39%. Currently the record is W58 L53 or 52.2%. This bet is going right to the end of the season
Catching up on a couple of horse racing bets
a) Hannon Jnr to beat Hannon Snr's 2013 UK winners >235 winners 2/1 100
currently 128 winners.
b) 2014 Flat Jockeys Championship - Handicap Betting Richard Hughes (Scratch) 15/1 50
currently Ryan Moore 109, Richard Hughes 89
catching up on these
General election 2015 Lib dem seats under 33.5 10/11 110
General election 2015 Lib dem seats 21-30 100/30 30
The Electoral Calculus projection from yesterday's LordAshcroft poll
and yesterday's yougov had their lowest ever reading for the LD's
CON 34 LAB 38 LD 6 UKIP 13, which would be under 21 seats
catching up on this
royal london one day cup kent 33/1 40 £20 e/w 1/2 1,2
kent won their first two games of the competition, and play surrey today
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Omm
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #84666 on:
August 05, 2014, 09:59:41 AM »
Quote from: tikay on August 05, 2014, 08:19:40 AM
Looking for suggestions please on how much we should sensibly invest in Football "Season Bets".
It's easy to get carried away in these, but remember, they tie cash up for 9 months. I would imagine we'll need a hefty budget for the Ryder Cup next month, too, so we need to leave some headroom.
We already have a few nice bets - Palace & Peterborough as I recall - & there is room for plenty more, but I think we should set some sort of budget.
As to matches, as Tighty mentioned yesterday, we need to exercise caution in the opening weeks until things settle down, though that's not to say we should not bet if we can spot value.
The free write ups on BE on the lower leagues seems a good place to start, not saying they should all be done but certainly if the lower league footy experts agree, the thread could get on a few?
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TightEnd
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #84667 on:
August 05, 2014, 10:16:07 AM »
The vibes since LVG went to Man U have been extremely positive
The suggestion a while ago was that Man U would start the season slowly as LVG bedded in
However, and it is only pre-season, so far so good, though of course its pre-season...
results
MU 7-0 LA Galaxy
MU 3-2 Roma
MU 0-0 Inter
MU 3-1 R Madrid
MU 3-1 Liverpool
more importantly, the players seem to want to play for him. This of course is a vast difference to last year's experience
Man U start the season as follows
16 Aug Barclays Premier League Swansea City H 12:45
24 Aug Barclays Premier League Sunderland A 16:00
30 Aug Barclays Premier League Burnley A 12:45
September 2014
14 Sep Barclays Premier League Queens Park Rangers H 16:00
they are 4/11 to win the first match across the market, live prices on oddschecker
we can plug in 8/13, 2/5 and 4/11 for the next three
this is taking comparable prices for City to win at Newcastle first game for the Sunderland game, Chelsea to win at Burnley on the first MNF for Man U's trip to Burnley and 4/11 again for the QPR game, same as the odds to beat Swansea
this produces odds of 3.2-1 the four timer for United to win these first four games
William Hill offers us 5-1 the same
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/man-utd/win-first-4-league-games
to get the same we would have to plug in
10/11 to win at Sunderland and 1/2 each a win at burnley and home to QPR, for example
yes?
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arbboy
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #84668 on:
August 05, 2014, 10:23:34 AM »
If Manu have won their first 3 games they will be shorter than 4/11 to beat QPR at home. I like the bet.
Having looked a bit more manure at 5/6 and 8/13 for the away games on oddschecker. I think comparing manure to chelski given one is 19/10 and the other is 5/1 for the title is not totally accurate. I think we need to rework the away game prices. I still think if manure have won the first 3 games they will go off shorter than 4/11 against qpr.
«
Last Edit: August 05, 2014, 10:32:01 AM by arbboy
»
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typhoon13
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #84669 on:
August 05, 2014, 11:14:29 AM »
Quote from: TightEnd on August 05, 2014, 10:16:07 AM
The vibes since LVG went to Man U have been extremely positive
The suggestion a while ago was that Man U would start the season slowly as LVG bedded in
However, and it is only pre-season, so far so good, though of course its pre-season...
results
MU 7-0 LA Galaxy
MU 3-2 Roma
MU 0-0 Inter
MU 3-1 R Madrid
MU 3-1 Liverpool
more importantly, the players seem to want to play for him. This of course is a vast difference to last year's experience
Man U start the season as follows
16 Aug Barclays Premier League Swansea City H 12:45
24 Aug Barclays Premier League Sunderland A 16:00
30 Aug Barclays Premier League Burnley A 12:45
September 2014
14 Sep Barclays Premier League Queens Park Rangers H 16:00
they are 4/11 to win the first match across the market, live prices on oddschecker
we can plug in 8/13, 2/5 and 4/11 for the next three
this is taking comparable prices for City to win at Newcastle first game for the Sunderland game, Chelsea to win at Burnley on the first MNF for Man U's trip to Burnley and 4/11 again for the QPR game, same as the odds to beat Swansea
this produces odds of 3.2-1 the four timer for United to win these first four games
William Hill offers us 5-1 the same
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/man-utd/win-first-4-league-games
to get the same we would have to plug in
10/11 to win at Sunderland and 1/2 each a win at burnley and home to QPR, for example
yes?
I am already on this
Sunderland game makes me cautious but like you say the vibes are good in the camp
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Omm
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #84670 on:
August 05, 2014, 11:38:42 AM »
Quote from: Chompy on August 04, 2014, 06:03:51 PM
Super filthy each-way bet in the last at Kempton tomo.
Sleep Walk will probably end up better than this class but they're not machines etc, and she's drawn wide on her Polytrack debut.
Dinneratmidnight is lightly raced, on the up, a 6f Poly winner and well drawn.
Eleven runners isn't ideal before arbboy starts being patronising (joke) but it's 4/5, 6/1, 10 Bar.
Flick in a score each-way at 6-1 with Billies or the Barking boys.
Just got even dirtier, 2 non runners 10-1 bar, suggestions?
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TightEnd
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #84671 on:
August 05, 2014, 11:39:32 AM »
4/11*5/6*8/13*4/11=9/2
to use the different prices for away games
if we then shorten the QPR game to 1/3 we get 4.38/1 or 1/4 then 4-1 the first four wins
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My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
Omm
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #84672 on:
August 05, 2014, 11:39:47 AM »
Forgot to say ours is one of the non runners
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exstream
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #84673 on:
August 05, 2014, 11:50:22 AM »
Fulham 11/1 at coral to win league
Coral are best price bunch of teams to win leagues and Fulham is just one of the arbs
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Doobs
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #84674 on:
August 05, 2014, 11:50:38 AM »
Quote from: Omm on August 05, 2014, 11:38:42 AM
Quote from: Chompy on August 04, 2014, 06:03:51 PM
Super filthy each-way bet in the last at Kempton tomo.
Sleep Walk will probably end up better than this class but they're not machines etc, and she's drawn wide on her Polytrack debut.
Dinneratmidnight is lightly raced, on the up, a 6f Poly winner and well drawn.
Eleven runners isn't ideal before arbboy starts being patronising (joke) but it's 4/5, 6/1, 10 Bar.
Flick in a score each-way at 6-1 with Billies or the Barking boys.
Just got even dirtier, 2 non runners 10-1 bar, suggestions?
Give it a miss? Surely accounts are too valuable to have bets like this on them?
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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