Tips for Tikay

[gherkin]

Surrey v Warwickshire (or Birmingham if we're being pedantic) in the first T20 semi final.  Should be a close game but one bet stands out for me - Surrey most runs 1st 6 overs http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/natwest-t20-blast/surrey-v-warwickshire/highest-first-6-overs

2 very different approaches, Warwickshire's big hitters (Evans, Clarke, Patel) come in lower down the order whereas Surrey put theirs up front.  My guess is Surrey will go with a top 3 of Roy, Davies & Pieterson, Warwickshire have Chopra, Porterfield & (probably) Trott.  Since Carter left a couple of years ago, I'd love to see a statistic on the number of times Warwickshire have outscored their opponents in the first 6 overs - I guarantee it's less than 50% since they simply don't have the players to do it - instead they like to build a platform early on (and it's working so they won't change it up for finals day).  Given Surrey are one of the more aggressive teams up front, I find it hard to make Surrey less than a 60% shot on this market.  Obviously depends a lot on the bowling and early wickets going down.  Looks like all the bookies have copied each other (shock) and priced Surrey at 1.8, which is very generous in my eyes

As an aside I actually expect Bell or Trott to get left out for Warwickshire -  In Evans, Chopra & Porterfield they already have 3 batsmen who can't bowl so I just don't see how they can fit 2 more in the team unless you use Trott as the backup 6th bowler (which I'm sure they won't).  Sadly I can't really see a way of cashing in on this though

[simonnatur]

Evening Mr T.

The purist in me will be quite happy should he lose to Federer in the final as he has no backhand to speak of but the e/w odds we get if he gets to the final are decent.

Suggest £10 e/w Raonic @ 40-1 with Paddy Power.

I PM'ed the bet to Tighty earlier as the 40-1 was so much better than anything else. It is now 35-1 but I think it is a bet down to 20-1.

Hi Hector,
Just wondered since Padraig Power are the only ones offering this market (according to Oddschecker) if the 11/8 Raonic most tourny aces should be of interest ? seems a little skinny but thought I'ld ask as seems greater chance of being out of line if they are currently standout on the outright.

[Peter-27]

Hey guys,

Been pretty busy lately, but here are my bet recommendations ahead of the Belgian GP this weekend.

Betfair
Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 12/5 - £5, don't accept lower than 11/5.

Paddy Power
Top 6 Finish: Sergio Perez @ 4/1 - £5

William Hill
Top 6 Finish: Jenson Button @ 2/1 - £5
Dual Forecast: Bottas & Rosberg @ 20/1 - £1

Will post the justification for these later today when I have a little more time.

[simonnatur]

Seems 11/8 Raonic most aces may be closer to a bet than I thought since he likely wins this if he completes 4 matches?
http://2013.usopen.org/en_US/scores/extrastats/index.html?promo=subnav

[tikay]

Morning all.

Quick thanks to gherkin & Mr Hector for two great recommends. Love to see suggested bets explained like that.

I'll leave it to tighty to load up, in case we double-cross, but we will get on. 

[horseplayer]

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[tikay]

BOOM!

A horsey gallery, the first in a while, & a great one too.

Thanks John.

If anyone else fancies posting a gallery once every now & then, please go ahead, it'd be much appreciated.

[tikay]

horsey,

Who do you think.....

1) WILL get the Palace gig?

2) SHOULD get the Palace gig? (assuming, sensible availability etc)

They most cetainly did well to swerve, at a minute to midnight, MM. What a disaster that would have been if it all came out after he became Manager.

Was quite breathtaking to see the LMA come out in support of MM yesterday. GG their credibility.

Wonder where him & his sidekick will be able to work now?  What a thing to see that sort of stuff in this day & age.

[horseplayer]

I would suggest they might struggle to get any gig over here for a good few years at least (Quite rightly) From all the reading i am doing there are quite large holes in the finance sheet as well which would be a lot more damaging to them. Mr Tan did state all this at the time and was lambasted as a foreign nutjob owner....

No idea who will get it, was a fair move for Neil Lennon last night and the Guardian reported they interviewed a "new candidate" yesterday by the betting that must have been Lennon or Dermot Drummy.

The guardian article last night stated

"Palace interviewed another candidate for the job on Thursday, with the frontrunners including Steve Clarke, Tim Sherwood and Martin Jol."

Within 5 minutes of this Sherwood ruled himself out!

[tikay]

Does anyone here subscribe to this, (£100 per year, I gather), & if so, does it do what it says on the tin?




http://tipsterform.com/

Just curious, if it's that good, must be worth having a look, though I'm inherently suspicious of tipping services on the whole. On the face of it, "how can we lose?". On the face of it....

[tikay]

I would suggest they might struggle to get any gig over here for a good few years at least (Quite rightly) From all the reading i am doing there are quite large holes in the finance sheet as well which would be a lot more damaging to them. Mr Tan did state all this at the time and was lambasted as a foreign nutjob owner....

No idea who will get it, was a fair move for Neil Lennon last night and the Guardian reported they interviewed a "new candidate" yesterday by the betting that must have been Lennon or Dermot Drummy.

Yup, he was lambasted by all & sundry.

He certainly is a bit quirky, but that's not always bad. Very successful businessman, too, so he can't be that daft. I have him very much in the Mr that clown Ashley mould. 

[horseplayer]

Does anyone here subscribe to this, (£100 per year, I gather), & if so, does it do what it says on the tin?




http://tipsterform.com/

Just curious, if it's that good, must be worth having a look, though I'm inherently suspicious of tipping services on the whole. On the face of it, "how can we lose?". On the face of it....

No idea on this particular service but these seem the new vogue for tipster services. They seem to follow hundreds of tipsters (Some free some paid) and follow them after a good month and dump them after a bad one. Not sure that is a great judge of a service but the fact there are so many of them cropping up suggests people like them.

[tikay]

Whilst on the subject of tipsters......

In what must be almost unique, I've barely ever seen a single negative comment about "Pricewise", aka Tom Segal, I gather.

He moves markets, people regularly tip his stuff, & we see, time & time again, "ooh, Pricewise has tipped it, must be good".

Is he really that good? Do we have genuine P & L figures for him?

If he is as good as most seem to think, why don't we all pack up work & just back his stuff blind?

I would not swap the portfolio of tipsters, excellence, & specialist knowledge of the guys we have on Fred, but its rare to see someone in the public eye who is so universally revered. Even the usual schadenfreude types seem to leave him alone. A rare beast indeed.   

[tikay]

Does anyone here subscribe to this, (£100 per year, I gather), & if so, does it do what it says on the tin?




http://tipsterform.com/

Just curious, if it's that good, must be worth having a look, though I'm inherently suspicious of tipping services on the whole. On the face of it, "how can we lose?". On the face of it....

No idea on this particular service but these seem the new vogue for tipster services. They seem to follow hundreds of tipsters (Some free some paid) and follow them after a good month and dump them after a bad one. Not sure that is a great judge of a service but the fact there are so many of them cropping up suggests people like them.

I suppose, in some ways, they are a bit like Fred. Except of course, Fred is free.

[horseplayer]

Whilst on the subject of tipsters......

In what must be almost unique, I've barely ever seen a single negative comment about "Pricewise", aka Tom Segal, I gather.

He moves markets, people regularly tip his stuff, & we see, time & time again, "ooh, Pricewise has tipped it, must be good".

Is he really that good? Do we have genuine P & L figures for him?

If he is as good as most seem to think, why don't we all pack up work & just back his stuff blind?

I would not swap the portfolio of tipsters, excellence, & specialist knowledge of the guys we have on Fred, but its rare to see someone in the public eye who is so universally revered. Even the usual schadenfreude types seem to leave him alone. A rare beast indeed.   

Best not check twitter for his name!