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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13329875 times)
JoeBeevers
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« Reply #85665 on: August 22, 2014, 05:00:09 PM »

Tikay thought you would like this

From Ryan Moores betfair preview (always a good read)

"14:30 York - Estimate

First things first, I don't think that she was suited by Goodwood last time, going downhill there on fast ground was not ideal. But I suspected that there was more to it than that at the time. I wasn't happy with her going down as she was nervous and nearly buried me at the start, which she has never done before. So we got her checked out, and we found out that she was in season, something that isn't always apparent unless you test for it. And that would explain a lot in the race itself as we were pestered throughout by Brown Panther, as the colt must have smelt a bit of love in the air."

Very good.

Back in the day, I was a regular at all the London dog tracks, 6 nights (+ two afternoons, + Saturday morning @ Hackney), & this was one of the little things we looked for, as many dogs would not go past a bitch once they caught that scent. Studying "Last Season Dates" was quite a preoccupation.

I'd like to say my cunning plan worked......     

Oooh Saturday mornings at Hackney....now you are getting me nostalgic.  When I was a student in London in the early/mid 90's I used to get up at 930am whilst all of the other students were sleeping off their hangovers and head to the Wick.    My hero was a fella by the name of John Jenkins with a blonde ponytail who bet as "John Power" there.  I once saw him lay 1100 quid on a 10/11 shot and he swiftly rubbed the price out........and went evens.  After a couple of weeks of going to almost every meeting there one day he didn't hand me a ticket when I had a bet and simply said "down to the youngster" and I felt like I had made it.  Amazing contrast to the bookies of today.  I wonder what happened to them.....it feels like the ring needs more characters to liven the game up.  I tried to persuade Arbboy to try for pitches at a few midlands dog tracks last night but I am not sure the tracks can afford the cost of the ring inspectors that would be necessary to deal with the rucks!!!!

I remember Power, he also bet at Wembley dogs. I remember him in one race where the 6 dog was 66/1, a punter walked up and held out a fiver. 'Sixty six fivers please' to which Power grabbed the fiver and said 'congratulations sir, you just bought the dog.'
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exstream
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« Reply #85666 on: August 22, 2014, 05:39:48 PM »

Janowicz plays Querrey in ATP Winston Salem today, 23:30.

Both mostly rely on winning matches by winning tie breaks, won't be able to break eachother, should be tight game.

Get on 'tie break played' yes at 17/20, betfair sportsbook.
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simonnatur
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« Reply #85667 on: August 22, 2014, 05:40:19 PM »


The Channel 4 racing coverage really seems very much better than it was the previous regime of John McCririck & Co. I did rather enjoy Francombe, but we can't have everything, and apart from when they dumb it down with that a Gok Wan sort of nonsense, it really is very good, imo. Racing fans, of course, are not an easy bunch to please.

I quite enjoy it, too. That said, Mick Fitzgerald is an annoying little leprechaun!

Racing fans aren't that dissimilar to poker players really Wink



You are certainly right to the similarity.

It's all subjective, but I enjoy Mick's stuff. I got to know him quite well via work last year, we chatted a lot, and have kept in touch, so I am a bit one-eyed I suppose, but I found him a very amiable individual. Gave me a horse to follow, too, and Phil & I invested a few bob. We are still following it, and the horse is still following, too....

I'm sure he's a very nice bloke, and good fun to have on the golf course, or in the pub.

I'm no fountain of knowledge regarding horses, but he does seem to chat a fair bit of jibberish.

Can't be all that bad if he's getting paid for it, or the people paying him aren't that bothered Smiley

May be selective memory, but seems to me Frankie is worth listening to when he says there is a lot of confidence about a horse. Was certainly the case with Pale Mimosa and he tipped the balance for me towards backing Sole Power on the WH offer today at the last moment.
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arbboy
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« Reply #85668 on: August 22, 2014, 05:51:46 PM »

Janowicz plays Querrey in ATP Winston Salem today, 23:30.

Both mostly rely on winning matches by winning tie breaks, won't be able to break eachother, should be tight game.

Get on 'tie break played' yes at 17/20, betfair sportsbook.

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/atp-winston-salem/jerzy-janowicz-v-sam-querrey/first-set-tie-break

For those that can get on there is a monster arb here.  Very unlike 365 to be wrong on a market like this (the vast majority of other firm's lean towards 365's side as well).  Their spreadsheets are usually razor sharp so would suggest skybet's 1/2 is a rick here and worthy of a decent bet for any degen's out there that can actually get a bet on with skysweat.  I appreciate fred can't get on but i would be going in large at 1/2 no tie break in first set if i could get on.

If we assume that the correct price for 1st set tie break is 2/5 no 5/2 yes then over 2 sets (assuming indepedence from each set)  it's virtually even money there is a tie break in the first two sets.  With the potential for a third set being around a 45% chance (from the correct score market) i would say the 17/20 is a decent bet for there to be a tie break in the match although nothing super strong.  I would make the price around the 1.75 mark for a tie break in the match based on 2/5 5/2 each set no yes tie break price and assuming independence in each set (this is a big if imo as if the first set is a tiebreaker the 2nd set must be slightly more likely to be a breaker as well)

Using skybets 1/2 price for no tie break in the first set and working through the calcs it makes the tie break in the game price effectively come to around the 8/15 mark which is way too short so it's clear the 1/2 no tie break in the first set is a massive rick and should be bet to the max imo with skysweat if you can get on.  Confirming once again that 365's spreadsheets for this are different class and sky's loltraders are as clueless as ever!  Nothing new there then.
« Last Edit: August 22, 2014, 06:10:51 PM by arbboy » Logged
TightEnd
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« Reply #85669 on: August 22, 2014, 05:58:07 PM »

Janowicz plays Querrey in ATP Winston Salem today, 23:30.

Both mostly rely on winning matches by winning tie breaks, won't be able to break eachother, should be tight game.

Get on 'tie break played' yes at 17/20, betfair sportsbook.


I had to research this

more OCD issues

Querrey has played 49 matches on the ATP tour in the last 52 weeks in 26 tournaments, and in those has played 34 tie breaks

Janowicz, the objectionable Pole, 40 matches in 22 tournaments, 21 tie breaks

so far this week Janowicz has played 10 sets, won 8 and had one tie break

Querrey has played 7 sets, won 6 and played two tie breaks


i thought the tie break stats would be higher. presumably though this could be quite a close match. They are ranked 52 and 56


anyway, i am not sure "Both mostly rely on winning matches by winning tie breaks". from the data, that's not true, though i went into the excercise thinking the statement would be confirmed rather than looking to disprove it

anyway again, i am quibbling, we await 6-7 7-6 7-5


Janowicz v Querrey


    £20.00
    17/20
    £37.00
    Yes
    Tie Break Played?

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000091

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« Reply #85670 on: August 22, 2014, 06:00:16 PM »

Janowicz plays Querrey in ATP Winston Salem today, 23:30.

Both mostly rely on winning matches by winning tie breaks, won't be able to break eachother, should be tight game.

Get on 'tie break played' yes at 17/20, betfair sportsbook.

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/atp-winston-salem/jerzy-janowicz-v-sam-querrey/first-set-tie-break

For those that can get on there is a monster arb here.  Very unlike 365 to be wrong on a market like this.  Their spreadsheets are usually razor sharp so would suggest skybet's 1/2 is a max bet.  I appreciate fred can't get on but i would be going in large at 1/2 no tie break in first set if i could get on.

you suggestiong betting yes with 365 or betfair sportsbook (slightly better on BSB) and then no on sky for the arb?
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« Reply #85671 on: August 22, 2014, 06:03:22 PM »

If you think skybet have got the 1/2 no tie break for the 1st set price right then the 17/20 a tie break in the match would be close to a max bet.
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« Reply #85672 on: August 22, 2014, 06:16:02 PM »

Who got the 2 on then?  Admit it.  It took the sky lol's 2 minutes and 1 bet of £100/£50 to go 4/9!  Always fastest finger first getting on with skysweat!  Afternoon Harrogate if you actually read the thread yourself you can adjust your spreadsheets using my maths to avoid the error again.
« Last Edit: August 22, 2014, 06:19:45 PM by arbboy » Logged
tikay
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« Reply #85673 on: August 22, 2014, 06:22:34 PM »

Who got the 2 on then?  Admit it.  It took the sky lol's 2 minutes and 1 bet of £100/£50 to go 4/9!  Always fastest finger first getting on with skysweat!  Afternoon Harrogate if you actually read the thread yourself you can adjust your spreadsheets using my maths to avoid the error again.

They moved from Harrogate about 6 years back, they are in Leeds now.
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« Reply #85674 on: August 22, 2014, 06:29:36 PM »

Think we could have a small interest at 4/9 no first set tiebreak with corals as i still think there is a hint of value in that.  Maybe a £45 wager to win £20.  It's a natural hedge against the other bet with a real chance of scooping both wagers.  Assume we can get on with joe still?
  
http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/atp-winston-salem/jerzy-janowicz-v-sam-querrey/first-set-tie-break

« Last Edit: August 22, 2014, 06:38:07 PM by arbboy » Logged
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« Reply #85675 on: August 22, 2014, 10:48:44 PM »

Two WH mobile £25s for tomorrow.

Farraaj is taking a break from politics to run in the 2.05 at York.  Hopefully he won't be back any time soon, bit like those IS fellas that he plans to stop at our borders.  I think we can just stop all the people who don't look too much like us, can't see any issues myself.  Anyway 13/8 is near best price.  Hopefully it will be the only thing he wins for some time.

Captain Cat is short enough (15/8) in the 3.30 at Goodwood to make it another bet.  Think the maths still makes this a bet even if the price isn't so close to the best price.   And Hills still give us best price guaranteed so we could easily get better. It also has the big advantage of a non controversial name.



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« Reply #85676 on: August 22, 2014, 11:05:29 PM »

Anyone else think they're overdramatising this Match of the Day thing?

4/7 there's a moment of peril where the show almost didn't happen
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« Reply #85677 on: August 22, 2014, 11:30:12 PM »

Bet365 doing the £50 in play offer for City/Pool game on Monday.

Tote have an offer whereby if you bet £25 in play on Domestic football this weekend and it loses you get a £25 free bet pre match on any market in the City/Lpool game.

Thoughts plz on best way to lock in a profit here, not interested in the most +ev option, just locking in the best book.
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« Reply #85678 on: August 22, 2014, 11:41:41 PM »

Tikay thought you would like this

From Ryan Moores betfair preview (always a good read)

"14:30 York - Estimate

First things first, I don't think that she was suited by Goodwood last time, going downhill there on fast ground was not ideal. But I suspected that there was more to it than that at the time. I wasn't happy with her going down as she was nervous and nearly buried me at the start, which she has never done before. So we got her checked out, and we found out that she was in season, something that isn't always apparent unless you test for it. And that would explain a lot in the race itself as we were pestered throughout by Brown Panther, as the colt must have smelt a bit of love in the air."

Very good.

Back in the day, I was a regular at all the London dog tracks, 6 nights (+ two afternoons, + Saturday morning @ Hackney), & this was one of the little things we looked for, as many dogs would not go past a bitch once they caught that scent. Studying "Last Season Dates" was quite a preoccupation.

I'd like to say my cunning plan worked......     

Oooh Saturday mornings at Hackney....now you are getting me nostalgic.  When I was a student in London in the early/mid 90's I used to get up at 930am whilst all of the other students were sleeping off their hangovers and head to the Wick.    My hero was a fella by the name of John Jenkins with a blonde ponytail who bet as "John Power" there.  I once saw him lay 1100 quid on a 10/11 shot and he swiftly rubbed the price out........and went evens.  After a couple of weeks of going to almost every meeting there one day he didn't hand me a ticket when I had a bet and simply said "down to the youngster" and I felt like I had made it.  Amazing contrast to the bookies of today.  I wonder what happened to them.....it feels like the ring needs more characters to liven the game up.  I tried to persuade Arbboy to try for pitches at a few midlands dog tracks last night but I am not sure the tracks can afford the cost of the ring inspectors that would be necessary to deal with the rucks!!!!


Love the feel of this Red, Saturday morning with the Sporting Life to see if Tracton Charm(?) was running out of the 6 box at Hackney. Always used to be a pivotal start to the day if it was. I remember my first bet without a ticket too, got the bus to Owlerton dog track to save the tax on a £150 bet on Sandy Lyle in a 3 ball at The Masters. I just told the guy what I wanted, that best price was 6/5 and he took it and gave me a nod.

Took me ages to realise why they used to lay some bets without tickets once they knew your face.
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tikay
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« Reply #85679 on: August 23, 2014, 12:00:05 AM »

Anyone else think they're overdramatising this Match of the Day thing?

4/7 there's a moment of peril where the show almost didn't happen


Am loving it.

The star turn is the Thierry pieces to camera. He's a natural.
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