Vuelta 2014: Stage 4
« Sent to: TightEnd on: Today at 05:29:32 AM »
morning, Tighty
I can't see myself posting many tips during this year's Vuelta d'Espana. Apart from the fact that Stages 2 and 3 were both won by the favourites, the mountain stages could all be decided by a pool of four riders (Froome, Rodriguez, Contador and Quintana), unless there is a successful breakaway or two. Also, there shouldn't be any surprises in the time trials, and the bookies are being unbelievably stingy with their team/points/top 10 prices. So this might be my only Vuelta post this year. Enjoy:
http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/vuelta-a-espana/vuelta-espana-stage-4/winnerToday is Stage 4 of the Vuelta from Mairena del Alcor to Cordoba. The profile looks like this:
| Click to see full-size image. |
The general consensus is that the stage will be won by a sprinter with good climbing legs (eg. Michael Matthews, John Degenkolb, Oscar Gatto). I will be taking a contrarian point of view, insisting instead that the sprint teams will be dropped on the final ramp of the Alto del Catorce, by attacking GC contenders who are strong at descending/sprinting and require the bonus seconds on offer due to their lack of TTing skills as compared to the likes of Froome and Quintana (eg. Cadel Evans, Daniel Martin, Joaquim Rodriguez). All these riders impressed in yesterday's stage, and should be looking to contend for the win yet again. Oh ... and I'll be throwing God himself, Tony Martin, into the mix as well.
The Vuelta has had a reasonably recent stage finish in Cordoba ... in 2011.
| Click to see full-size image. |
The top 20 went something like this (with 2014 participants in bold):
1 SAGAN, Peter Liquigas Cannondale 4hrs 38' 22''
2 LASTRAS, Pablo Movistar "
3 AGNOLI, Valerio Liquigas Cannondale "
4 NIBALI, Vincenzo Liquigas Cannondale "
5 CAPECCHI, Eros Liquigas Cannondale + 3''
6 FUGLSANG, Jakob Leopard Trek + 17''
7 RODRIGUEZ, Joaquin Katusha + 17''
8 BRUSEGHIN, Marzio Movistar + 17''
9 MONCOUTIE, David Cofidis + 17''
10 CHAVANEL, Sylvain Quick Step + 17''
11 MARTIN, Tony HTC-Highroad + 17''
12 NIEVE, Mikel Euskaltel-Euskadi + 17''
13 COBO, Juan José Geox-TMC + 17''
14 SEELDRAYERS, Kevin Quick Step + 17''
15 SCARPONI, Michele Lampre-ISD + 17''
16 BENNATI, Daniele Leopard Trek + 23''
17 GAVAZZI, Francesco Lampre-ISD + 23''
18 GASPAROTTO, Enrico Astana + 23''
19 MONDORY, Lloyd AG2R + 23''
20 POELS, Wout VCD +23"
Not many sprinters in that line-up. Apparently, a contributing factor was the heat that day, and with the mercury reaching the mid-30s tomorrow, I suspect we could be in for more of the same. Basically, what happened three years ago, was that Moncoutie attacked on the Alto del Catorce, being the first over the summit. Tony Martin was next over, and these two were joined on the descent by Seeldrayers and David de la Fuente. Lastras went off alone in pursuit, but was ultimately followed by a quartet from Cannondale (including Nibali and Sagan) who went on to catch the breakaway, with Sagan easily winning the sprint finish.
What strikes me as interesting about this stage, apart from the lack of sprinters, is Tony Martin's ambition to drop the sprinter's teams on the final 1km of the Alto del Catorce which has a gradient of 14% (hence Catorce). It should not be all that surprising, as Martin has a tendency to stretch his legs the week before the ITT of a grand tour as shown by the following results:
2014: TdF Stage 9 Gerardmer - Mulhouse 1st
[/img]
TdF Stage 20 Bergerac - Perigueux (ITT) 1st
2013: Vuelta Stage 6 Guijuelo - Caceras 7th
Vuelta Stage 11 Tarazona - Tarazona (ITT) 2nd
2012: Vuelta Stage 4 Barakaldo - Est. de Valdezcaray 2nd
Vuelta Stage 11 Cambados - Pontevedra (ITT) 11th
2011: TdF Stage 16 Saint-Paul-Trois-Chateaux - Gap 4th
TdF Stage 20 Grenoble - Grenoble (ITT) 1st
Vuelta Stage 6 Ubeda - Cordoba 11th
Vuelta Stage 10 Salamanca - Salamanca (ITT) 1st
He also seems to favour stages that have a selective profile immediately before a fast descent, meaning that he can jump the peloton, before putting down the hammer. This year, the first ITT comes on Stage 10. If Martin wants to test himself before next Tuesday, today might be the last stage for him to do so (Stage 5 - similar profile, but not big enough selection, 6 - summit finish, 7 - lumpy last 40km ... maybe, 8 - pancake flat, 9 - summit finish). Add to this his familiarity with the finish in Cordoba, the similarity in profile to Stage 9 of last month's TdF, his incredible form at the moment, the impending World Championships ITT (in Spain) and I think Tony Martin is considerable value for the stage win @ 125/1.
So, in conclusion, my recommended portfolio looks something like this. I'd choose to keep the stakes quite small, in case my theory turns out to be a load of crap. All these prices are available at shouty-red-man.com:
£2.50 e/w Tony Martin @ 125/1
£2.50 e/w Cadel Evans @ 125/1
£2.50 e/w Joaquim Rodriguez @ 150/1
£2.50 e/w Daniel Martin @ 200/1
£2.50 e/w Wilko Kelderman @ 200/1
Cheers, cheapwetsuit
125/1
Tony Martin
Stage 4 Mairena del Alcor-Cordoba
Singles - Stage Winner - Each Way
2 lines @ £2.50 per line
Total Stake £5.00
Potential Return £395.62
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000716
200/1
Wilco Kelderman
Stage 4 Mairena del Alcor-Cordoba
Singles - Stage Winner - Each Way
2 lines @ £2.50 per line
Total Stake £5.00
Potential Return £630.00
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000717
125/1
Cadel Evans
Stage 4 Mairena del Alcor-Cordoba
Singles - Stage Winner - Each Way
2 lines @ £2.50 per line
Total Stake £5.00
Potential Return £395.62
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000718
150/1
Joaquim Rodriguez
Stage 4 Mairena del Alcor-Cordoba
Singles - Stage Winner - Each Way
2 lines @ £2.50 per line
Total Stake £5.00
Potential Return £473.75
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000719
200/1
Daniel Martin
Stage 4 Mairena del Alcor-Cordoba
Singles - Stage Winner - Each Way
2 lines @ £2.50 per line
Total Stake £5.00
Potential Return £630.00
Receipt No: O/1426
Author