Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1898181

Following on from the big arb on ukip winning a seat at the next general election, Paddy have made ukip 1/4 tories 10/3 to win the by election at Clacton (i can't find any other prices for this on oddschecker etc from other firms - if anyone sees any can they post links on here).  I assume this price would be similar for the general election next year so the 2/5 with Coral for ukip to win ANY seat at the next GE looks huge value given they will have numerous other live chances outside of Clacton.

1/4 for UKIP to win by-election is too short surely.  Who knows how electorate will react?

It is very, very difficult for a sitting government to win a by election.  They generally need a very big majority to hold a seat and winning one from another party is very rare indeed (think the last time it happened was in 1982 during the Falklands which was a fairly unique case) so basically the swing at by elections away from governments is generally very high and if anything it is getting higher.  This kinda reminds me of the Bradford by election a few years ago where Galloway won his seat and whilst 1/4 may be on the short side I would definitely be a backer at 1/2.  That doesn't mean, however, that the 2/5 UKIP to win any seat at the general election is value.  I think the likeliest scenario is that UKIP win this and then lose this seat at the general election.  In fact with anything less than an 8k majority here I would bet on the Tories at a fairly short price in this seat next time out because protest votes don't really happen at general elections or certainly not to the same extent as they do in by elections anyway.

But surely the point is that it is already a Tory seat even though the candidate has changed.  Don't underestimate how much tribal Tory voters detest Miliband however much they like UKIP.  I don't think UKIP will get the swing required personally would never back at 1/2 although I agree they should be favs.

I think the key thing you are missing is the UKIP guy in Clacton when he stood for the tories gained a lot of respect locally and it must be assumed a lot of his tory voters will switch as they were voting for him personally rather than just the tory party.  

Yeah I can see that point of view.  Just can't believe he is that much of a political superstar and carries that much loyalty that voters will just vote for him irrespective of which party he represents, so much so to make him a 1/4 shot.  Maybe that particular electorate are furious with Cameron.  I suppose he must have done some kind of research into that side of things before taking such a drastic step.

 I haven't seen any other firms with prices up.  Clacton doesn't seem to appear on oddschecker for some reason.

[booder]

You ever listened to the Shipping Forecast on the wireless? GREAT little show, that.


Channel Light Vessel Automatic. Moderate or good, occasionally poor.

Oh yes !

I was lucky enough to share a room in Walsall a few years back with Dewi.

Turns out he can not sleep unless the Shipping Forecast is on.

[DungBeetle]

Haha - didn't notice the Alcopop - genius.

Any further thoughts on West Ham?  Tempted to upgrade it to a full thread suggestion for a £20 wager.

[Junior Senior]

Hands up if you ever phoned in sick to work so you could play Champ Man!

Did it about 3 times. Played about 26 hours straight once.

Mega addictive.


Edit. Just seen Bobby's post.
Seriously, i even turned down a shag once cos i was too bust trying to get Mansfield into The Championship. I did it.

[arbboy]

Haha - didn't notice the Alcopop - genius.

Any further thoughts on West Ham?  Tempted to upgrade it to a full thread suggestion for a £20 wager.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/west-ham-v-southampton/winner

One other thing about this game.  Hills are totally ducking the draw to an incredible level.  I saw Hills do this several times last year in EPL games and have no idea why they do it.  They never adjust their correct scores though which is really weird. 

[Tal]

Never one for Champ Manager, personally. I was all about Beat'em Ups and Platform Games.

Hadouken!

[Ironside]

Hands up if you ever phoned in sick to work so you could play Champ Man!

Did it about 3 times. Played about 26 hours straight once.

Mega addictive.


Edit. Just seen Bobby's post.
Seriously, i even turned down a shag once cos i was too bust trying to get Mansfield into The Championship. I did it.

on the old amiga myself and a mate had been out clubbing
went back to his with my amiga loaded it up along with some beer and cigars
he went off to milk the cows about 4 am then 5 more times while we played
in total we played 72 hours only stopping while he milked the cows

[horseplayer]

Hands up if you ever phoned in sick to work so you could play Champ Man!

Did it about 3 times. Played about 26 hours straight once.

Mega addictive.


Edit. Just seen Bobby's post.
Seriously, i even turned down a shag once cos i was too bust trying to get Mansfield into The Championship. I did it.

Pretty sure Cm97-98 was one of the reasons i didnt ever turn down a shag in my late teens....

Used to spend hours,days,nights and even weeks playing in the french league as AS Nancy (started with big Tony Cascarino who was surprisingly good)

Used to email massive season reports when my best mate couldnt come round and eventually the game crashed about 45 seasons in

[horseplayer]

The Bet Butler have finally downed tools then

Been a short price for a long time unfortunately

[Chompy]

6/1 Bamford for top Middlesbrough scorer? (BMU)

He's obv not going there to sit on the bench and Evs Kike, 6 Bamford seems too big a gap to me.

Rec £25 @ 6-1

[TightEnd]

6/1 Bamford for top Middlesbrough scorer? (BMU)

He's obv not going there to sit on the bench and Evs Kike, 6 Bamford seems too big a gap to me.

Rec £25 @ 6-1

Grant Leadbitter has 3 in 3 in the league and is 6/1 too.......all three were penalties!

anyway, i digress

 Middlesbrough Top Championship Goalscorer - 2014/15 Patrick Bamford (Outright - Outright) Odds: 6/1 Stake: 25.00 Possible Return:  175.00

[scotty2hatty]

Adageo Bob wins by 300 lengths

[Omm]

Adageo Bob wins by 300 lengths

More

[Omm]

Those who can might want an interest bet on Thom Evans for Strictly winner. Fleet-footed, ex Scotland rugby player, good looking chap (has his own calendar - in before so does Thomas the Tank Engine), former flame of Kelly Brook, so lots of voting bases covered there. Oh, and he's Chris Evans's cousin. Why is that important? Well, Chris Evans is credited(?) to some extent with Denise van Outen's sudden fall in public voting success, after criticising her previous experience on his radio show. She got 40/40 for her Charleston to Walk Like an Egyptian and seemed unstoppable. Then, her popularity waned and she finished third. With so many listeners and with this a very on-message BBC show, encouragement is a sure fire thing.

We don't know how good he'll be at dancing but being a rugby player does offer some positives. The backs who have competed over the years have done well, because of their ability to learn and sharp feet.

8/1 with Mr Parr.

I'm not one for recommendations without having seen them dance both latin and ballroom, but this looks like an early interest bet. Happy to hear contrary views before setting money alight.

Early doors for me is Steve Backshall, very popular with kids and more importantly their mums. 25-1 seems too big. I'll be keeping an eye on him as he could be this years Abbey.

[Tal]

Those who can might want an interest bet on Thom Evans for Strictly winner. Fleet-footed, ex Scotland rugby player, good looking chap (has his own calendar - in before so does Thomas the Tank Engine), former flame of Kelly Brook, so lots of voting bases covered there. Oh, and he's Chris Evans's cousin. Why is that important? Well, Chris Evans is credited(?) to some extent with Denise van Outen's sudden fall in public voting success, after criticising her previous experience on his radio show. She got 40/40 for her Charleston to Walk Like an Egyptian and seemed unstoppable. Then, her popularity waned and she finished third. With so many listeners and with this a very on-message BBC show, encouragement is a sure fire thing.

We don't know how good he'll be at dancing but being a rugby player does offer some positives. The backs who have competed over the years have done well, because of their ability to learn and sharp feet.

8/1 with Mr Parr.

I'm not one for recommendations without having seen them dance both latin and ballroom, but this looks like an early interest bet. Happy to hear contrary views before setting money alight.

Early doors for me is Steve Backshall, very popular with kids and more importantly their mums. 25-1 seems too big. I'll be keeping an eye on him as he could be this years Abbey.

Finding this year's Abbey is going to be a very difficult task. She went through some transformation, from a stilted, hesitant, graceless WAG to a fiery, persuasive, elegant dancer. I still don't get her Showdance to Sweet Child O'Mine, but there we are.

She was helped by Susannah and Natalie getting all the attention (good and bad) in those last few weeks, allowing her to come through on the inside.

If anyone says they saw the first few weeks of series seven and picked out Chris Hollins as a winner, they're lying. But he had a good run of dances in the key weeks and the Charleston was one of the best pieces of choreography the show has seen, pitched perfectly to get the crowd going. He was also in the final against someone who'd just hit the headlines for an incident with a paparazzo in Ricky Whittle.

We aren't after the best dancer and it's a mistake to back "the hot ones", who traditionally go deep but not deep enough. Suppose the term is we are after sleepers. All you need to see is they can count a beat in their head, they can offer some form of rhythm and they can deliver a heel on the one.

With a bit of luck, we can have a market up that Fred can get a bet on with and the Strictly Elders can break out the Cuban heels and sequins.

Putting on my top hat
Tying up my white tie
Brushing off my tails...

Click to see full-size image.