Tips for Tikay

[T_Mar]

Hi Guys, Maths quesxtion if you dont mind, probably been explained earlier in the thread so apologies if thats the case

If a selection is 2.5 on BF to come top 5 in a specific event (eg golf) and you want to work out the price for same selection to come top 3 in same event, is it as simple as doing the following

2.5 / 5 = 0.5
2.5 + 0.5 = 3
3 / 4 = 0.75
3 + 0.75 = 3.75

Thanks in advance

You can sometimes go 5/3 x2.5 and get 4.17, which is just over 3/1.

This isn't one of those occasions as you have a leader who is well clear and 4/5 or similar on Betfair.  He takes up more than enough of the first place market to make the calculation really bad.  Barring Horshel everybody else is more likely to be 4th or 5th than 1st, so the simple maths falls apart.

Cheers,  I was more intetrested in the calculation rather than anything else... I can see why the maths is skewed in your example though so thanks explaining that.

What do you think of the following as bets in the Euro Golf both with VC 3 who are 1/4 odds first

Richie Ramsay @ 16/1
David Lipsky @ 16/1

It's effectively a 12 runnner race (discounting anyone -9 or worse) and 4 of those at -10 which makes them big outsiders obviously.  So not a stretch to call this 8 runner race, with 3 books paying 1/4 odds, seems decent.  The Leader is -16 but is ranked 500+ in the world, does have a tour win to his name but that qas 7 years ago.  -15 seems a more realistic leading score as it stands.  They all have their chances obviously but the 2 I'm suggesting are 6/4 for top 5 so as above come out at ~3/1 for top 3.  Win prices are equal or slightly worse on BF.  Ramsay in particular looks a good bet with his previous win at the course, and has shown he can go low with his -8 on day1.  Dont know too much about Lipski, he's yet to win, but has been playing well based on his results and is consistent so no reason he cant hit the frame as is only a couple off the lead

That betfair place market is too weak to read anything from it.  You ideal want quite a lot of money matched and a small gap between buy and sell.  You could just go 17/3 to get roughly the correct place odds for 3 places. It isn't perfect but is better than relying on that place market.  Lipsky is a straight arb at 16/1 win only vs Betfair.

I can't help you much more.

Cheers

[Chompy]

Buckle up...

Poshies to finish top six in League One, 8/13 with never a quarrel.

Recommend £1300 to win £800. Or less is we must.

This is a weak league and the top four in the current betting have far and away the strongest squads.

Poshies finished sixth last season without being off a yard for most of it and we are in a much better place. Early results have been pleasing and we're only going to get better (average age yesterday under 22). There's quality cover at every position.

There's no League Cup or Paintpot distractions either.

This month's fixtures...

Notts Co (H)
Gillingham (A)
Yeovil (A)
Fleetwood (H)

Jack Baldwin, Jermaine Anderson, Marcus Maddison will all be sold on for megabucks in the next couple of seasons imo. Lump on, oi oi

[TightEnd]

Buckle up...

Poshies to finish top six in League One, 8/13 with never a quarrel.

Recommend £1300 to win £800. Or less is we must.

This is a weak league and the top four in the current betting have far and away the strongest squads.

Poshies finished sixth last season without being off a yard for most of it and we are in a much better place. Early results have been pleasing and we're only going to get better (average age yesterday under 22). There's quality cover at every position.

There's no League Cup or Paintpot distractions either.

This month's fixtures...

Notts Co (H)
Gillingham (A)
Yeovil (A)
Fleetwood (H)

Jack Baldwin, Jermaine Anderson, Marcus Maddison will all be sold on for megabucks in the next couple of seasons imo. Lump on, oi oi

passed across to Mr Kendall

the current Coral balance, plus need for working capital in there, precludes much of a bet currently

[Newportlad]

Buckle up...

Poshies to finish top six in League One, 8/13 with never a quarrel.

Recommend £1300 to win £800. Or less is we must.

This is a weak league and the top four in the current betting have far and away the strongest squads.

Poshies finished sixth last season without being off a yard for most of it and we are in a much better place. Early results have been pleasing and we're only going to get better (average age yesterday under 22). There's quality cover at every position.

There's no League Cup or Paintpot distractions either.

This month's fixtures...

Notts Co (H)
Gillingham (A)
Yeovil (A)
Fleetwood (H)

Jack Baldwin, Jermaine Anderson, Marcus Maddison will all be sold on for megabucks in the next couple of seasons imo. Lump on, oi oi

Currently 4/6 on Beteverydayoftheyear

[Chompy]

Don't think the 4/6 is there. They had no League One markets earlier and these look like yesterday's prices.

[rfgqqabc]

Don't think the 4/6 is there. They had no League One markets earlier and these look like yesterday's prices.

£3.65 had 4/6 30 mins ago when  i bet it.

[Tal]

Fred has Miami Dolphins to finish bottom of the AFC East this year. They host the overwhelming divisional favourites, New England Patriots, in their first game, which is on Sky at 9pm tonight. Having won this fixture last season, it seems fair to suggest this is a good yardstick for our bet tonight. The teams have gone in different directions since that game, with New England improving on offence through players returning from injury and Miami having well-publicised issues.

A Patriots win will start the journos off. A big Patriots win will get the typewriters clicking. A Miami win would be somewhat disappointing!

[Chompy]

Don't think the 4/6 is there. They had no League One markets earlier and these look like yesterday's prices.

£3.65 had 4/6 30 mins ago when  i bet it.

Guess it's back then.

CLOCK!!!!!!!!!!!

[Tal]

Interested in views on this one:

Bills @ Chicago.

Spread at the moment is about 6.5 in Chicago's favour, so that means Chicago is nearly a touchdown better than Buffalo. Let's assume that's not unfair, a few hours from kick off, when the market has had months to be bashed into place.

The Bills will rely on their running game, which is good on paper, to keep them competitive against a formidable Bears offence. A less extravagant version of Dallas, Chicago has a good offence and a less good defence, where the team will be looking to outscored, rather than stodge. The Bills' running game is helped by the blocking Tight End, Lee Smith, who is nursing a toe injury and might not play. Sammy Watkins is probably going to suit up, but the preparation on offence could hardly have been worse for this game.

The Bills are 1-6 away from home in their last seven week ones. Chicago are 6-1 at home for the opening fixture.

I think Chicago will win this game comfortably and Jeffery, Marshall and Forte will have too much for Buffalo. It won't be a rout, like the 40-7 (or something similar) last time out, but I think we can take a flyer on there being a little more leeway on the line.

A fair range, here, with the bookies. Best price 9/2 for Chicago to win by between 7 and 12 points is 9/2 with Billy Mountain. Scores in the region of 27-17 are hardly unfathomable. Minded to propose £20, but would like to hear opinions from the Elders.

[arbboy]

Don't think the 4/6 is there. They had no League One markets earlier and these look like yesterday's prices.

£3.65 had 4/6 30 mins ago when  i bet it.

Guess it's back then.

CLOCK!!!!!!!!!!!

Bigger the price the more you have on?  £2000/£3000???

[Chompy]

I'd happily rec £6000 to win £4000 but getting funds transferred from 'Bottomless Pit (bank)' to 'Restrictoed Account (356)' might be a problem.

[arbboy]

I'd happily rec £6000 to win £4000 but getting funds transferred from 'Bottomless Pit (bank)' to 'Restrictoed Account (356)' might be a problem.

They will lay £4500 at 4/6 on a clean account.  365 are betting to 625% in a 6 place market which is quite incredibly tight and they are pretty much betting over broke given how short they are a lot of the rags compared to the other firms.  If you take the best price on oddschecker each team the market is roughly 585%.

[horseplayer]

THEY want to take on Chompy

Pretty much 20% on racing and footie now but this bet nearly 3k

CHOMPY V PAT COONEY

[ripple11]

I'd happily rec £6000 to win £4000 but getting funds transferred from 'Bottomless Pit (bank)' to 'Restrictoed Account (356)' might be a problem.

They will lay £4500 at 4/6 on a clean account.

Check ice cream account...........its true!

[Dubai]

I got clean 365 account for international football fgs stuff this week, don't mind putting a non max bet on. Ie 3k tops as don't wanna highlight account but longterm bet should be ok anyway