Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

chompy

are we heads up for top woman in this?

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/big-brother/celebrity-big-brother/winner

why is edele outsider of six?

do we have a shot at her going longer than the dee woman?

(go gently, haven't watched a minute of it)

[arbboy]

Spain are out of the bball world champs.  Dumped out by France which is great news for the USA bet but makes it virtually impossible Lithuania can win the without usa/spain bet.  USA are now 1/12 to win the title and the other 3 (France, Lithuania and Serbia) are all 45/1.

Harden is obviously much more likely to win the MVP now Spain are out but probably still not a favourite.  Must be close to impossible for a Spanish player to win it as they haven't even made the semi finals.

[Chompy]

Dee and Edele HU but we're drawing pretty thin. See how they price it up tomorrow but wouldn't object to closing out for a small freebie or for a push.

[simonnatur]

If the ground is on the fast side of good, Varian will pull Kingston Hill out. He's done it twice this season already, including in a Classic.

yes. so is there anything value elsewhere in the race, or wait for a new market to form?

Windshear is the horse that I keep hearing mentioned for The Leger, for example:
http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2014/2014_st_leger_preview.htm
http://thesun.racecaller.com/horse-racing-forum/general-horse-racing-chat/st-leger-2014-ante-post-1409995939/post/633338

Obviously not my own opinion but appeared convincing enough for me to have a bet. It seems Kingston Hill is similar to Leading Light as far as dosage goes, but could be vulnerable depending on how the race is run.

[DungBeetle]

Also Middlesboro 5/4 away at Huddersfield?  I saw Huddersfield last time out and they were pretty good from what I could see being a bit unlucky to lose 2-4 to Watford.  Finishing was the difference. 

Now they have a new manager in charge, and Middlesboro are coming off the back of 2 successive home defeats.  This season they've beaten lowly Bolton and Birmingham, but lost to Leeds, Sheff Weds and Reading.  Hardly a great season so far.

How can the visiters be 5/4 here?

They can't be value.  Boro are consistently overrated by the betting markets this year.  They should improve as they gel and after a week off that could be more marked but it is still a bad price.

recommended bet size please, or further thoughts....

Think a £20 tickle on Huddersfield can't possibly be a bad bet.  I know new manager uplift is a myth, but Boro are the wrong price looking on their performances alone.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £137.51

Outstanding Bets £4620.15

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=29

I took a £25 loss this moring on Nocoini top real Madrid scorer in the basketball world cup. Assumed he was Spanish, found out he was Argentinian, saw they had been knocked out in the last 16 now need to find the data to see the result of the market....safe bet he didn't win though

ongoing positions

The upset win of France over hosts Spain in the quarter finals of the FIBA world basketball really lancer le pavé dans la mare. Or Mettre le loup dans la bergerie.

Click to see full-size image.

Anyway, with Spain out USA have gone 1/12 outright and now play Lithuania in the semis. We had assumed that Lithuania would then have to play whoever lost to Spain in the semis in the third place play off, but now to win the w/o USA/Spain bet they will need to beat the US then the final for it to win

So all eggs in the USA basket then for our bets

In baseball a good night. The Orioles swept the Red Sox, winning the third game of the series 10-6. Ten games ahead with 18 games to play, they now need to win 8 of their last 17 to ensure our £500+ profit, and that's assuming those behind win all their games

Click to see full-size image.

The Yankees beat the Rays last night and the equation there is now win 14 of their last 19 to go over the 87.5 win threshold that gives us a loser

A vital game in the AL Central last night. The Royals top pitcher James Shields pitched seven flawless innings and the Ryals shut out the Tigers winning 3-0 to go a game ahead again in the division.

Click to see full-size image.

In the remaining 18 games the Royals host the Tigers for three of them.

Mighty close this one

Click to see full-size image.

In football Barnet won away at Dover 3-0 last night. relegation bet Dover are just above the bottom 4 at this early stage



Guernsey's season appears to be turning round. 8-1 winners last night against Three Bridges, a place in Sussex i knew had a station on the Brighton line but not a football team

Highlights are at http://www.guernseyfc.tv/Highlights

In politics, away from Indyref last night the YouGov/Sun poll gave Labour have six point lead with the Lib Dems at their equal lowest YouGov polling:

CON 32% LAB 38% LD 6% UKIP 14% GRN 5%

tremendous news for our under 33 LD seats bet. Not such good news if you are on 21-33 seats too. 6% equates to single figure LD MPs after the GE

back to Indyref, after the Survation poll yesterday the Yes 45-50% price, our main focus on here, shortened and is now 6/4 favourite on Betfair

No is into four's on on Betfair too, a big move yesterday

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

If the ground is on the fast side of good, Varian will pull Kingston Hill out. He's done it twice this season already, including in a Classic.

yes. so is there anything value elsewhere in the race, or wait for a new market to form?

Windshear is the horse that I keep hearing mentioned for The Leger, for example:
http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2014/2014_st_leger_preview.htm
http://thesun.racecaller.com/horse-racing-forum/general-horse-racing-chat/st-leger-2014-ante-post-1409995939/post/633338

Obviously not my own opinion but appeared convincing enough for me to have a bet. It seems Kingston Hill is similar to Leading Light as far as dosage goes, but could be vulnerable depending on how the race is run.

thanks for the links

what sort of bet do you want, if you do, on Windshear?

[TightEnd]

Also Middlesboro 5/4 away at Huddersfield?  I saw Huddersfield last time out and they were pretty good from what I could see being a bit unlucky to lose 2-4 to Watford.  Finishing was the difference. 

Now they have a new manager in charge, and Middlesboro are coming off the back of 2 successive home defeats.  This season they've beaten lowly Bolton and Birmingham, but lost to Leeds, Sheff Weds and Reading.  Hardly a great season so far.

How can the visiters be 5/4 here?

They can't be value.  Boro are consistently overrated by the betting markets this year.  They should improve as they gel and after a week off that could be more marked but it is still a bad price.

recommended bet size please, or further thoughts....

Think a £20 tickle on Huddersfield can't possibly be a bad bet.  I know new manager uplift is a myth, but Boro are the wrong price looking on their performances alone.

i took the last piece of 9/4 on the home side

Single Selections
Huddersfield Town v Middlesbrough Huddersfield Town (Match Betting - 90 Mins) Odds: 9/4 Stake: 20.00 Possible Return:  65.00

[Tal]

Remind me. Do we have a position on the pistorius trial? Vaguely recall discussion on it and Fred has not always shied away from bets - to continue the theme - de très mauvais goût.

[simonnatur]

Personally wouldn't go mad on the race, but seems hard for it to be a bad to have say £10 e/w on Windshear @ 8-1 with one of the firms who aren't NRNB, especially as you pointed out there is some % chance Kingston Hill doesn't run/ground not ideal.

[TightEnd]

Remind me. Do we have a position on the pistorius trial? Vaguely recall discussion on it and Fred has not always shied away from bets - to continue the theme - de très mauvais goût.

Non.

it was discussed but not placed for the thread

if i recollect, the view was to get on guilty?

[Tal]

Remind me. Do we have a position on the pistorius trial? Vaguely recall discussion on it and Fred has not always shied away from bets - to continue the theme - de très mauvais goût.

Non.

it was discussed but not placed for the thread

if i recollect, the view was to get on guilty?

Right ho. Judge delivering the court's verdict at the moment. Suspect it might take a while.

[TightEnd]

Personally wouldn't go mad on the race, but seems hard for it to be a bad to have say £10 e/w on Windshear @ 8-1 with one of the firms who aren't NRNB, especially as you pointed out there is some % chance Kingston Hill doesn't run/ground not ideal.

ok

Kingfisher is the only absentee at the declarations today

we have a small interest

 St Leger Windshear (1/4 1,2,3 EW) (Horse Racing Outright - Race) Odds: 8/1 Stake: 20.00 Possible Return:  120.00

[superwomble]

Re: Dover. The 4-1 win coupled with some decent signings had me a little worried for the bet but last night showed how out of our depth we are. The manager would appear to be clueless.

[Chompy]

There are 14 declared for the Ledger, including Kingston Hill, but there's not going to be any rain and it must be a short price that Varian takes him out again.

At the moment Scuy and BMU (not mentioning the Irish rofflers) are stilll not NRNB.

Feels like a good spot to angle shoot Victor imo.

If we have enough in the 'exchanges' to lay some off, £100EW on each of Snow Sky, Romsdal and Windshear @ 5/1, 6/1 and 8/1 would seem like a decent move.