Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

Can someone remind me of the calculation for a team winning when they are home and away so Chelsea are 6/4 to win tomorrow what price would they be at home?

Keep thinking United are a lay tomorrow but the Chelsea price keeps coming in so not sure when this switches to backing United.

any views on goals? - will Chelsea "park the bus"? Quite fancy overs on the goals still

6/4 implies Chelsea are roughly 0.2 goals better than manure tomorrow.  Home advantage is worth roughly 0.4 a goal in the EPL .  So on a neutral ground Chelski are 0.6 goals 'better' than manure.  If home advantage is flipped then Chelski would be considered roughly a goal better than manure which equates roughly to 4/7 8/13 price if Chelski were at home.  Hope this helps.

[Kmac84]

United would really need to be a big price for me to back them right now.  I just haven't seen enough to make me think its about to click into place anytime soon.  I have been backing BTTS/Over 2.5 goals in all their games so far and been doing well enough from that.  

I was also toying with putting Hearts up as bet tomorrow in the Capital City Derby.  There is some 5/4 out there.  i haven't seen much of Hibs this season but their results have been terrible barring getting a result at Ibrox.  I have a fair few Hibs supporting mates who are season ticket holders and they confirm what the scores tend to show; Hibs are rotten, Stubbs seems out of his depth, they have trouble defending and don't have a prolific scorer.  

Hearts on the otherhand are flying and thankfully Fred followed me in on this one at beginning of the season.  They are playing some nice football and have goals from all over the team and playing full of confidence.  

I genuinley thought they might be a shade of odds on tomorrow before looking at the market.  Hibs derby record in recent years is pretty poor as well.  

If Fred can get on at near 5/4 I'd be inclined to fling fifty quid at it and it covers half our e/w bet Hearts to win the league if they somehoe manage to feck it up.  

I have backed Hearts and have them in a double with over 3.5 goals in El Classico.   I also have Madrid and over 2.5 in Chelsea game.  

[Kmac84]

Can someone remind me of the calculation for a team winning when they are home and away so Chelsea are 6/4 to win tomorrow what price would they be at home?

Keep thinking United are a lay tomorrow but the Chelsea price keeps coming in so not sure when this switches to backing United.

any views on goals? - will Chelsea "park the bus"? Quite fancy overs on the goals still

6/4 implies Chelsea are roughly 0.2 goals better than manure tomorrow.  Home advantage is worth roughly 0.4 a goal in the EPL .  So on a neutral ground Chelski are 0.6 goals 'better' than manure.  If home advantage is flipped then Chelski would be considered roughly a goal better than manure which equates roughly to 4/7 8/13 price if Chelski were at home.  Hope this helps.

What do you think the correct price should be Arb?

If I were to be backing Man U give the available information I would be wanting something pretty big.   I think the prices should be 5/2 home, 9/4 draw, 11/8 away.  In the Hearts game when I was thinking out loud other day I thought I'd be looking to see something like 11/4 home, 5/2 draw and 11/10 Away (although wouldn't have been surprised to see 10/11 or 1/1 for the Jambos.

[arbboy]

Can someone remind me of the calculation for a team winning when they are home and away so Chelsea are 6/4 to win tomorrow what price would they be at home?

Keep thinking United are a lay tomorrow but the Chelsea price keeps coming in so not sure when this switches to backing United.

any views on goals? - will Chelsea "park the bus"? Quite fancy overs on the goals still

6/4 implies Chelsea are roughly 0.2 goals better than manure tomorrow.  Home advantage is worth roughly 0.4 a goal in the EPL .  So on a neutral ground Chelski are 0.6 goals 'better' than manure.  If home advantage is flipped then Chelski would be considered roughly a goal better than manure which equates roughly to 4/7 8/13 price if Chelski were at home.  Hope this helps.

What do you think the correct price should be Arb?

If I were to be backing Man U give the available information I would be wanting something pretty big.   I think the prices should be 5/2 home, 9/4 draw, 11/8 away.  In the Hearts game when I was thinking out loud other day I thought I'd be looking to see something like 11/4 home, 5/2 draw and 11/10 Away (although wouldn't have been surprised to see 10/11 or 1/1 for the Jambos.

The draw has to be a relatively big price even though it's a close game on paper because the game is so high scoring on paper.  Impossible for the draw to be shorter than 5/2 given the goal quotes for the game.  I would struggle to back Chelski at 4/7 if the game was at their place so i suppose 6/4 seems plenty short enough on the road.  I have no real view on the game.

[Marky147]

Premier League Darts styleeeee, and trixie the draws tomorrow!

[Chompy]

Bit of footy housekeeping...

Poshies are ruining my Saturdays with their flakiness and I'm gonna try and find a price about us not finishing in the top six this week. I don't want the bet any more; too much emotional involvement as it is. If I can find anyone to lay 6/4 the other side, I'll post it here.

The EW tip pre-season at 12/1 wasn't me. GlennDTD put that one up?

Match bet v Doncaster should be fine though.

Also, how bout dem Notts County? Did we back them for top midlanders? I lost the link to our bets again.

[Marky147]

Bit of footy housekeeping...

Poshies are ruining my Saturdays with their flakiness and I'm gonna try and find a price about us not finishing in the top six this week. I don't want the bet any more; too much emotional involvement as it is. If I can find anyone to lay 6/4 the other side, I'll post it here.

The EW tip pre-season at 12/1 wasn't me. GlennDTD put that one up?

Match bet v Doncaster should be fine though.

Also, how bout dem Notts County? Did we back them for top midlanders? I lost the link to our bets again.

Your Luton shout is on a bit of a tear as well, Chompy.

[Chompy]

Yuh, had taken my eye off the Luton bet. Back in deece shape that one.

Very interested in Fulham top six now. The 6-1 and 13-2 (not yet available on 635 site) are too big, as is BMU's 11-2.

If anyone can get on with Scuy, suggest they snap up the 6-1 now.

[Tal]

So Jaffacake now writes basketball tips for Betting Emporium.  

Losing the contributions of many who posted on here regularly.  Perhaps the Fred title should be changed from Tips For Tikay to Trial for BE or TFT to Tips from Hector.

Like myself, he's a big lad, but he's still only one person, and I don't think he has been banned from Fred

Tighty writes for BE, and he hasn't gone anywhere.

Joe and Neil own BE, and they both contribute to Fred.

Any overreactions about?

Regarding this issue;
You know that free thing where people used to tell how to make money without me having to do anything?
Except reading. I have to read the stuff. Then, I have to go and put the bets on. Myself. They don't even help me with that.
I don't like reading through explanations and stuff and I would prefer if somebody else could place the bets for me. Actually, ideally it would probably be best if those people just mailed me cheques on the regular, without me having to do anything.
Yeah well, that free thing isn't as good as it used to be. And I for one, am outraged.

Bad jokes aside, this thread has been awesome. And even if it ended tomorrow, it's still been great. A lot of us had made a few quid from the tips. But most importantly, we have learnt how top gamblers think and how they approach betting. We can't be spoonfed for ever.

I'm not suggesting that we should be spoonfed, and I agree we have all learnt or should have learnt a great deal more than when Fred first starter.  I wasn't here at the beginning but I have read almost every post and I have been here for a good while now and I feel it's not the fred it once was and I would like it to continue.  Its probably the first thing I check when I come online.  

I mean I hates the maths bets I really did, it wasn't fun but I actually miss them being stuck up.  Its like we all used to be one family and now its fragmented.  

I was not aware they had stopped as such - but I was aware that those who put them up got a whoile load of grief & abuse. So maybe they cba to take all that any more.

I have to say I sometimes CBA to put them up now as I've had grief with the last few.

Things that are obvious to a few are not obvious to many.

The ways in which to use free bets/ ways to make the most money out of offers I've learnt from here so feels good to give back.

I'm not sure I could tip up 20/1 winners each week like hector - which are admittedly more fun. But maths type stuff that others may not see I like to put up as I know sometimes I miss them and people make me aware of them here.

I love feed but hate the jibs/ criticism that comes sometimes on the thread.

One thing I would like back is the tipsters tab on the spredy. Some people on here I will literally stop everything I'm doing if I see them post and make sure I get on. But I don't want to be missing these guys cause I'm not 100% sure if they are "follow blind people"

If Tal gets upset cause he is at tr bottom, well maybe he should leave us in peace! In Vegas he made me do my conkers to often!

I'm sure you're joking and I don't need to defend myself, but, having met me twice in June, you'll have realised this post was going to make me respond

Sample sizes are too small to be certain on the balance sheets alone who the "best" tipsters are. You don't stake someone based on 50 MTTs...

There are some who you can tell by their posts alone are backable blind, but I like the idea that the tipster stats are hidden (encourages tipping and discussion, after all). You get to make your own mind up about whether you follow and, if so, how much you wager.

I'll never claim to be anywhere near those at the top, but that's never been why I post ITT. Without checking, I'd estimate 90% of the recommends I have put up here have been in question form: I explain my reasoning and ask for advice. Bothers me not if it gets picked up and, who knows, someone with specialist knowledge might say "actually, X is injured" or "that's definitely in the price because..." and I get to learn something.

Take my recent spate of NFL posts this season. I've got back into the sport the last three years and, through fantasy leagues and other bits and bobs, I've built up a knowledge and access to resources for stats and news. It's given me a perspective on a new sport and one which has fifty markets a game (x16 games a week and it's ideal for betting).

There are a handful of chaps ITT who have outstanding knowledge of this sport and it would frankly be mad not to invite their thoughts on anything I'm considering having a play on. I'll have done my research, drawn my own conclusions but am not so arrogant as to assume I can't learn from mistakes. Once in a while, these tips get picked up by Fred and it's good to have that validation.

I wasn't around much last week, but logged in on Monday night to post a thought I'd had about the overnight game. I didn't read Tighty's amazing post beforehand, even when I came back online the next morning to post the results of my recommends. I did the other day when I caught up on what I'd missed. What a truly incredible piece of writing and explanation for a lolrecpunter like me to read and receive, gratis!

I've no doubt there's a big difference in the ROI of every bet I've posted and the bets I've posted that have been accepted by Fred. It's an excellent and effective filter system. It's undoubtedly helped my P&L because if someone says "I really like this", I'm likely to have a little more on. I'm only a lolrecpunter anyway. It's disposable income stuff and will never be anything more.

I reckon if you were to unlock the mysterious Tipster Tab, you'd see that I've done pretty well on the bets Fred has placed because of something I've posted. Backing me blind is stupid, but no one is doing that.

I think sometimes people lose sight that it's a bit of fun. Tikay (Fred's sponsor) is only betting money he's prepared to lose and, these days, it's mostly tenners and twenties because of restrictions. 4k of on going bets is worth at least 4k in equity and we're however many thousand posts in and showing a little bit of profit.

I don't care how Fred makes his money, personally, but I would prefer it if it were over a wide spread of methods: a wide range of sports, some novelty markets, some maths bets, some fun "flickins", a Banzai or two. Everything in moderation.

I've always thought, as long as it wasn't an exercise in urinating money into a force eight gale, the main objective was a bit of fun and inviting as many people who wanted to embrace that to join in, meet the online versions of new people and enjoy the craic. If this thread ended up like some of the threads in The Lounge over the last few months, I'd happily leave and never come back. If it isn't fun, it isn't worth my time.

It's still fun, though. No better place to be.

[Tal]

Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm off to cheer on:

• Julio Jones to get a touchdown and a lot of yards for my fantasy team
• Detroit Lions to win against the spread for my acca
• And a Safety in the game for my "tab"

Have a nice day y'all.

[TightEnd]

Daily Magnum Opus

Profit on Month £328.23

Outstanding Bets £4124.56

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=30

A profit of £128 yesterday

- £20 at 7-1 over 4.5 goals Coventry/Peterborough came in after an hour for a profit of £140

Frank Nouble scored the all important fifth goal for us

Click to see full-size image.

- £20 at 7-5 Scarlets to beat Leicester in the Rugby came in with a 15-3 win for a profit of £28

Click to see full-size image.

- £20 at 5-4 Catterall to win the boxing came in for a profit of £25

Click to see full-size image.

losers

- £65 Boxing on three bets Malinga and Katsidis in their bouts

ongoing positions

- Tennis ATP Basel, Swiss Indoor, Goffin beat Coric in 3 sets to reach the final where he will play Federer. We have 25-1 each way, guaranteed a return but hoping for the scoop

Click to see full-size image.

- Baseball. After 4 innings of Game 4 of the World Series it was a familiar story. The Royals were 4-1 up after taking advantage of Giants starting pitcher Ryan Vogelsong, who conceded 4 runs in the innings and was pulled with the bases loaded and 2 outs. The reliever got the side out of the jam and they went to the fifth

At that point, unforgiveably, I fell asleep. I therefore missed, finally, the Giants bats getting hot which was my contention pre-series. 2 runs in the 5th made it 4-3. The starter was pulled and rookie reliever Brandon Finnegan was introduced by the Royals. 3 runs off the sixth, 4 runs in the seventh and the Giants were now 11-4 up

hunter Pence is batting .467 (7-for-15) in this series with two doubles, a home run, five RBIs and four runs scored.

Click to see full-size image.

They won the game by that score, and tied the seven match series 2-2. The fifth game is once more in San Fran, tonight, before the final two games in KC. I reckon its looking very good for a 4-3 scoreline, which is a bet of ours, and 50-50 as to who will win the World series

- Rugby Union. In the European Champions Cup Toulouse, as with all french teams notoriously poor travellers, went to Bath and beat them 21-19, three tries to one. A huge result for them in this slimmed down competitionw here qualifying places are at a premium. One of top try bets Maxime Medard, below, scored a try and made two

Click to see full-size image.

 

- Ski-ing. Mikaela Shiffrin of the United States wasted no time fulfilling her ambition to start winning giant slaloms this season.

Shiffrin, already dominating the women’s slalom circuit for two years, clinched her first giant slalom win on Saturday, tying with the overall World Cup champion Anna Fenninger in a season-opening race.

“I wanted this so bad for so long,” Shiffrin, 19, said, adding it might help her chances to compete for the overall title this year.

A good start for the 13-1 ante-post bet



-  Strictly Thom Evans scored a middle of the road 27 with his Cha-Cha-Cha last night

Click to see full-size image.

- X Factor. I watched this last night. The things I do for journalistic integrity

Only the Young went modern, and were so so (outright bet). Not going to be anywhere near winning it

Lola Saunders seems a lovely girl, but struggled when the going got tough and the song reached its crescendo (heads up for top girl with Lauren, who was excellent)

Fleur East was fine (outright bet)

here are the current markets for tonight's elimination and overall





- Football

I can put it off no longer

- Premier League

top ten bet West Ham were excellent cementing a top four place beating Manchester City. Sakho's winner probably the best use of goal-line technology yet, wouldn't have been given before the introduction, Diafra Sakho is the first West Ham United player to score in six successive Premier League appearances.



top everything bet Crystal Palace were denied a win at West Brom by a late equaliser. Bad news for two bets, as we have Albion to go down

Click to see full-size image.

Plucky underdogs Liverpool, a handicap bet, secured a point at home to Hull. Still waiting patiently for Balotelli to lose it, before he is dropped/sold/ostracised

Southampton remain relegation threatened, now second after beating Stoke, who are quielty having a poor season



Leicester were insipid losing at Swansea. Teams have worked out how we play, adjusted accordingly and a poor run has begun



- Championship

Watford gained a good draw at Mddlesborough, and Deeney scored. With Forest, Derby, Norwich etc all failing to win this was a good result

Click to see full-size image.

- League One

Peterborough fell to 4th losing at Coventry. Peterborough midfielder Marcus "great white hope" Maddison has now scored four goals in five games - and three of them have been Cristiano Ronaldo-style 35-yard free kicks.



Doncaster drew with MK Dons and are now 20th one point and one place above the relegation places

Michael Smith of Swindon, a top goalscorer bet, scored 2 more, taking him to 8 for the season, one goal behind the each way places

Click to see full-size image.

- League Two

Newport drew at home to Accrington, enough to take them into the play off places, three points behind the automatic promotion spots and we definitely have a squeak at 33-1 each way

- Non League

A novel reason not to be able to report on Guernsey

"Today's game between Carshalton Athletic and Guernsey FC has been postponed due to a travel administration error by GFC.

The team was due to travel to Gatwick this morning but due to a mix-up over flight times was unable to do so. With a high volume of passengers travelling due to the begining of the half-term holiday, no alternative options to accommodate the team were available.

Guernsey FC apologises to Carshalton Athletic, The Ryman Isthmian League and to all fans for the regrettable postponement."

- In the Bundesliga, with relevance to our Mainz bet, Dortmund lost to Hannover, their fourth loss in a row opening up spots at the top of the table



- Two GE2015 Opinion polls overnight, both virtually identical

Con 33+5
Lab 33-2
Ukip 18+1
LD 6% -3
GRN 4=
 SNP 4=

[TightEnd]

Bit of footy housekeeping...

Poshies are ruining my Saturdays with their flakiness and I'm gonna try and find a price about us not finishing in the top six this week. I don't want the bet any more; too much emotional involvement as it is. If I can find anyone to lay 6/4 the other side, I'll post it here.

The EW tip pre-season at 12/1 wasn't me. GlennDTD put that one up?

Match bet v Doncaster should be fine though.

Also, how bout dem Notts County? Did we back them for top midlanders? I lost the link to our bets again.

Notts County

you put it up one midweek morning and by the time i got to it the price had collapsed, 3 points or so from memory, so i had to leave it and posted as such, unfortunately

[TightEnd]

Yuh, had taken my eye off the Luton bet. Back in deece shape that one.

Very interested in Fulham top six now. The 6-1 and 13-2 (not yet available on 635 site) are too big, as is BMU's 11-2.

If anyone can get on with Scuy, suggest they snap up the 6-1 now.

you would like to do this?

i could get 11/2

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/top-6-finish

here is the Championship current form table

Would be very unlucky not to win the Symons bet

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

Southampton remain relegation threatened, now second


I lolled at that, so on this occasion we may forgive you for falling asleep during the Baseball.

What a job you have here, watching stuff like Strictly, & monitoring travel plans for Guernsey FC.

[tikay]

So Jaffacake now writes basketball tips for Betting Emporium.  

Losing the contributions of many who posted on here regularly.  Perhaps the Fred title should be changed from Tips For Tikay to Trial for BE or TFT to Tips from Hector.

Like myself, he's a big lad, but he's still only one person, and I don't think he has been banned from Fred

Tighty writes for BE, and he hasn't gone anywhere.

Joe and Neil own BE, and they both contribute to Fred.

Any overreactions about?

Regarding this issue;
You know that free thing where people used to tell how to make money without me having to do anything?
Except reading. I have to read the stuff. Then, I have to go and put the bets on. Myself. They don't even help me with that.
I don't like reading through explanations and stuff and I would prefer if somebody else could place the bets for me. Actually, ideally it would probably be best if those people just mailed me cheques on the regular, without me having to do anything.
Yeah well, that free thing isn't as good as it used to be. And I for one, am outraged.

Bad jokes aside, this thread has been awesome. And even if it ended tomorrow, it's still been great. A lot of us had made a few quid from the tips. But most importantly, we have learnt how top gamblers think and how they approach betting. We can't be spoonfed for ever.

I'm not suggesting that we should be spoonfed, and I agree we have all learnt or should have learnt a great deal more than when Fred first starter.  I wasn't here at the beginning but I have read almost every post and I have been here for a good while now and I feel it's not the fred it once was and I would like it to continue.  Its probably the first thing I check when I come online.  

I mean I hates the maths bets I really did, it wasn't fun but I actually miss them being stuck up.  Its like we all used to be one family and now its fragmented.  

I was not aware they had stopped as such - but I was aware that those who put them up got a whoile load of grief & abuse. So maybe they cba to take all that any more.

I have to say I sometimes CBA to put them up now as I've had grief with the last few.

Things that are obvious to a few are not obvious to many.

The ways in which to use free bets/ ways to make the most money out of offers I've learnt from here so feels good to give back.

I'm not sure I could tip up 20/1 winners each week like hector - which are admittedly more fun. But maths type stuff that others may not see I like to put up as I know sometimes I miss them and people make me aware of them here.

I love feed but hate the jibs/ criticism that comes sometimes on the thread.

One thing I would like back is the tipsters tab on the spredy. Some people on here I will literally stop everything I'm doing if I see them post and make sure I get on. But I don't want to be missing these guys cause I'm not 100% sure if they are "follow blind people"

If Tal gets upset cause he is at tr bottom, well maybe he should leave us in peace! In Vegas he made me do my conkers to often!

Morning Callum.

For the record, we have never knowingly or intentionally allowed people to see the ROI of individual bettors. On occasion, it may have been left open unintentionally, but thats all.

It's a bit like the Sharkscope effect, we don't want people being abused or the subject of snidey remarks because they appear to have a bad ROI on Fred. Some of the best Tipsters here have a bad ROI.

There are no plans to "unlock" the Tipsters Tab, either.

For balance, feel free to assume that Marky is an ice-cream.