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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13330260 times)
arbboy
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« Reply #94980 on: February 10, 2015, 08:15:18 PM »

i'm keen not to discourage anybody, and i keep missing Mr stream's winners

Back (Bet For)

Sunderland 1.97 £20.00 £19.40

Ref: 46183531217  19:23 10-Feb-15


as for the other one, i can't put £50 of the boss's money on 5-0+ but i appreciate Fraser posting

and giroud and wellbeck are on the bench

and i will sulk if one of these comes in ;-)

Arsenal v Leicester City Arsenal 5 - 0 (Correct Score - 90 Mins) Odds: 30/1 Stake: 10.00 Possible Return:  310.00
Arsenal v Leicester City Arsenal 6 - 0 (Correct Score - 90 Mins) Odds: 70/1 Stake: 5.00 Possible Return:  355.00
Arsenal v Leicester City Arsenal 7 - 0 (Correct Score - 90 Mins) Odds: 175/1 Stake: 5.00 Possible Return:  880.00



I like Sunderland at evens. Now they have Defoe they must be a substantially better side than qpr and worthy of an odds on quote here. The only negative is the new gaffer news for qpr today which might fire the players up knowing he is watching.  I couldn't lay evens Sunderland in this spot.

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« Reply #94981 on: February 10, 2015, 09:10:15 PM »

kick on arsenal.  7-0 will do!  That would liven up fred!
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arbboy
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« Reply #94982 on: February 10, 2015, 10:19:54 PM »

Amazing what a new gaffer on the horizon does for a team who couldn't pick a point up all season away from home.  Suddenly all the £60k+ a week boys decide to put a shift in.  Even SWP got a run out.
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« Reply #94983 on: February 10, 2015, 11:28:16 PM »

villa to go down at 2.62 on laddies is a stand out price with the rest of the major outlets at 2.25 to 2.5

in the bottom 3 now and no sign of them improving
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« Reply #94984 on: February 11, 2015, 12:21:29 AM »

Wow we are all awake!

Will have a look tomorrow see if I can find any good bets! Miss this thread being really busy although I've been mad busy in work!
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« Reply #94985 on: February 11, 2015, 01:00:41 AM »



Good effort to stir the pot, Rich, & awaken a bit of interest, thank you. Hard work at the mo, maybe time for a break, or a change of stewardship.


This interested me....

the west indies are a rabble

in their warm up game Gayle was out first ball, then didn't field, went back to the hotel and lounged around the pool


We were given Gayle as a "Top Batter" bloke, which was, sort of, a great shot in some ways, with the caveat that he may not turn up, so to speak.

Can't recall if we got on, though.

The Cricket World Cup starts on Saturday (?), & we ought to have a few positions imo, as we have some solid cricket knowledge amongst the Freddies. 

I just think it has got really hard to find bets when you are so limitted.

As an example, I really fancied the 12/1 half odds e/w on Andy Murray for the Australian Open.  But that was with Boyles.  There was one or two offering 11/1, but fairly sure the best thread could get was 10/1.  I just don't have the edge to give away 20% at the start.

There was a really good bet on The Jump too, where you could get fifth first 3 when Tindall was 1/2.  Problem was the only two offering it were betfair sportsbook and another that thread was severely limited.  It just missed with 4th, but the bet was only value with the each way.  As an example of how bad The Jump was as a betting proposition, I picked out Steve O very early and vistied all 4 bookies offering over 5/1 and get precisely £22 in total on. 

It is the same with horse racing.  Bet365 will be paying 5 places and offering decent odds, but we just can't really get on.  Hills are often 4 places and worse odds, and again it is hard to get past that.  I am not a great believe in your always get value taking 4 places with 16 runners, the price has to be right too, and we really need to be avoiding those races that are always likely to cut up to 14 and 15.

At least there is Cheltenham to look forward to.  With work and that, it will be hard to get value from the BE subscription, so maybe it opens the door to put some decent value bets here.  I am sure it is best waiting for the start now.  Offers are likely to be immense in that week.
 
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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« Reply #94986 on: February 11, 2015, 09:45:55 AM »

Hi Fred. Possible one, here. Horse folk might wish to comment.

A good friend of mine was bought a "share" in a horse for her birthday in September. It was through a company called The Owners' Group and you basically get about 0.04% of a horse for £35 or something similar. It's really just a fun thing to do for those who fancy "owning a horse".

As part of the package, you get emailed updates on schooling, gallops, future races, etc. You also get in a draw with the other owners for badges when it runs, the trophy if it wins and so on. Of course, you get a share of any prize money if it wins any.

Anyway, this particular one has been entered in a lot of races but has been pulled out each time, owing to the ground. It hasn't run yet since its point to point days.

http://www.ownersgroup.co.uk/reports/?8

He runs today, finally. And he isn't just running in some random class six; it's in the 2:20 at Chepstow today, against some fairly talented looking opposition.

It opened 5/1 this morning, but 4/1 best now. There's an odds-on jolly ahead in the 12 horse race.

Henderson must have some form of faith in the horse (does this look like an Albert Bartlett trial?) because it's quite an opening race to put him into, even allowing for the need to get him to run.

Obviously, with so many owners, everyone will be having a tenner on it, so I expect the price will only get shorter. They'll be expecting a return on their investment of course, so let's see what the good doctor can do, having committed to this race.

If you fancy anything else, great, but thought I'd pass on the story that comes with Champagne Express.

Any views? Fred fancy some value pie?
« Last Edit: February 11, 2015, 09:48:13 AM by Tal » Logged

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« Reply #94987 on: February 11, 2015, 10:19:14 AM »

3/1 lol

Any chance of some Mardle Drift back towards the fives?
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« Reply #94988 on: February 11, 2015, 10:50:50 AM »

Daily Report

Profit on Month £358.84


Outstanding Bets £3682.05

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=19


A loss of £40 yesterday

Sunderland managed to lose at home to QPR -£20



Arsenal did not drub Leicester -£20



ongoing positions

who said this about whom?

""One of the best teams that have come to the Emirates this year"

that will be another loss conceding a soft goal, being the better team for long stretches but missing great chances then

 Click to see full-size image.


Liverpool beat Tottenham 3-2 in what looked like a great game. The Liverpool +14 point handicap bet is just about trundling along still

Any chance having scored now Mario (his first Premier League goal for Liverpool from his 48th shot in 13 appearances) you could get sent off?

 Click to see full-size image.


Jelavic scored for Hull, his 7th league goal of the season, six off an each way golden boot spot. Unlikely, bar a magical run of form from prolific chance creators Hull City

 Click to see full-size image.


in the Championship,

Ighalo has been in great form for Watford, and scored twice last night to give Watford a win at Brentford

Deeney had a penalty saved. Watford are up to 5th

 Click to see full-size image.


Fulham lost 3-1 at Bolton, we can wave goodbye to hopes of the top six pretty soon

Vetokele has been slumbering all winter but scored last night for Charlton in their home loss to Norwich. He now has 9 for the season. A each way spot in the Championship golden boot is currently 14

in league one

Doncaster won 5-0 away at Crawley. I looked twice to make sure

Peterbrough meanwhile were at home to Gllingham and lost 2-1

Peterborough are now in the bottom half! Boom!

they are also equal on points with Dncaster for the match bet, having been 11 points ahead of them pre-christmas. Not boom.

in league two

Newport, minus their manager who decamped to Gillingham, arrested theuir slide with a home point to Tranmere. They remain sixth

Basketball

In the NCAA Duke beat Florida State 73-70 to go to a 24-3 record. FSU are known as the Seminoles. What's a seminole?

In the NBA

The Chicago Bulls beat the Sacramento Kings 104-86

apparently their star player did it again, Pau Gasol with 26 points and 16 rebounds

 Click to see full-size image.
   


today and tonight

Palace play Newcastle. A big game for the match bet, and bets on both teams

west ham are at southampton. Again, positions on both

stoke host Man City

Stoke, west ham and Newcastle are all top ten bets and look to be fighting for two available spots

Cuevas plays Bagnis in Sao Paulo
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Marky147
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« Reply #94989 on: February 11, 2015, 11:21:19 AM »

Hi Fred. Possible one, here. Horse folk might wish to comment.

A good friend of mine was bought a "share" in a horse for her birthday in September. It was through a company called The Owners' Group and you basically get about 0.04% of a horse for £35 or something similar. It's really just a fun thing to do for those who fancy "owning a horse".

As part of the package, you get emailed updates on schooling, gallops, future races, etc. You also get in a draw with the other owners for badges when it runs, the trophy if it wins and so on. Of course, you get a share of any prize money if it wins any.

Anyway, this particular one has been entered in a lot of races but has been pulled out each time, owing to the ground. It hasn't run yet since its point to point days.

http://www.ownersgroup.co.uk/reports/?8

He runs today, finally. And he isn't just running in some random class six; it's in the 2:20 at Chepstow today, against some fairly talented looking opposition.

It opened 5/1 this morning, but 4/1 best now. There's an odds-on jolly ahead in the 12 horse race.

Henderson must have some form of faith in the horse (does this look like an Albert Bartlett trial?) because it's quite an opening race to put him into, even allowing for the need to get him to run.

Obviously, with so many owners, everyone will be having a tenner on it, so I expect the price will only get shorter. They'll be expecting a return on their investment of course, so let's see what the good doctor can do, having committed to this race.

If you fancy anything else, great, but thought I'd pass on the story that comes with Champagne Express.

Any views? Fred fancy some value pie?


He'll probably pull it out later on this morning, citing that he thinks the horse needs better ground Smiley

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« Reply #94990 on: February 11, 2015, 11:56:02 AM »

3/1 lol

Any chance of some Mardle Drift back towards the fives?

you don't want to back it at 3-1 (on here?) do you?
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« Reply #94991 on: February 11, 2015, 11:56:49 AM »

villa to go down at 2.62 on laddies is a stand out price with the rest of the major outlets at 2.25 to 2.5

in the bottom 3 now and no sign of them improving

thoughts on this welcome

8 goals in 21 games, obviously no form, we know this...should they be shorter or is the price right?
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« Reply #94992 on: February 11, 2015, 12:07:50 PM »

villa to go down at 2.62 on laddies is a stand out price with the rest of the major outlets at 2.25 to 2.5

in the bottom 3 now and no sign of them improving

thoughts on this welcome

8 goals in 21 games, obviously no form, we know this...should they be shorter or is the price right?

Well I would say that they have relatively good fixtures for the next 5 and relatively poor fixtures thereafter.
So they should do a little better until the end of March and then do worse after that, just going by the strength of opposition.
I would also say that their signing of Carlos Gil looks probably the best signing of the January window. He looks a lovely little player.
21 Feb 15:00   Gameweek 26   Stoke (H)
28 Feb 15:00   Gameweek 27   Newcastle (A)
03 Mar 19:45   Gameweek 28   West Brom (H)
14 Mar 15:00   Gameweek 29   Sunderland (A)
21 Mar 15:00   Gameweek 30   Swansea (H)
04 Apr 15:00   Gameweek 31   Man Utd (A)
11 Apr 15:00   Gameweek 32   Spurs (A)
18 Apr 15:00   Gameweek 33   QPR (H)
25 Apr 15:00   Gameweek 34   Man City (A)
02 May 15:00   Gameweek 35   Everton (H)
09 May 15:00   Gameweek 36   West Ham (H)
16 May 15:00   Gameweek 37   Southampton (A)
24 May 15:00   Gameweek 38   Burnley (H)
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« Reply #94993 on: February 11, 2015, 12:10:47 PM »

villa to go down at 2.62 on laddies is a stand out price with the rest of the major outlets at 2.25 to 2.5

in the bottom 3 now and no sign of them improving

thoughts on this welcome

8 goals in 21 games, obviously no form, we know this...should they be shorter or is the price right?

Well I would say that they have relatively good fixtures for the next 5 and relatively poor fixtures thereafter.
So they should do a little better until the end of March and then do worse after that, just going by the strength of opposition.
I would also say that their signing of Carlos Gil looks probably the best signing of the January window. He looks a lovely little player.
21 Feb 15:00   Gameweek 26   Stoke (H)
28 Feb 15:00   Gameweek 27   Newcastle (A)
03 Mar 19:45   Gameweek 28   West Brom (H)
14 Mar 15:00   Gameweek 29   Sunderland (A)
21 Mar 15:00   Gameweek 30   Swansea (H)
04 Apr 15:00   Gameweek 31   Man Utd (A)
11 Apr 15:00   Gameweek 32   Spurs (A)
18 Apr 15:00   Gameweek 33   QPR (H)
25 Apr 15:00   Gameweek 34   Man City (A)
02 May 15:00   Gameweek 35   Everton (H)
09 May 15:00   Gameweek 36   West Ham (H)
16 May 15:00   Gameweek 37   Southampton (A)
24 May 15:00   Gameweek 38   Burnley (H)

He does, but from the little i have seen of him, they play him where he can't have much impact. He picks balls up off the centre backs with the rest of the midfield in front of him. He looks like someone to play behind the front two to me, where his flair can do more damage

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Tal
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« Reply #94994 on: February 11, 2015, 12:24:02 PM »

3/1 lol

Any chance of some Mardle Drift back towards the fives?

you don't want to back it at 3-1 (on here?) do you?

No. Not unless someone has a strong view that it'll be going off favourite. Was just posting to tell the story and to suggest getting on early because the price was likely to contract. Also, if this is eating up the overround artificially (because people are backing it, rather than because its chances of winning have improved), there might be value elsewhere.
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