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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13331446 times)
arbboy
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« Reply #95715 on: March 05, 2015, 10:03:54 AM »

For anyone who can get on there are some incredible price differences/arbs on the EPL ante post markets after last night's games.  Feast on them as you see fit if you are lucky enough to be able to get on.  It's that crazy time of year when ante post markets just throw out value as firms 'give away' their ante post profits to green up.  Most of the selections below are 8% risk free/commission free arbs.  No stakes recommended for fred as no bets seem to be being placed currently.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/not-to-finish-top-10

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-10-finish

Stoke 1/4 top ten finish coral - 7/1 not to top ten with VC.
Everton 8/1 top ten finish 365 - 1/5 not to top ten with paddy/ 2/11 ladbrokes

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/to-stay-up

QPR to go down 4/7 Bald - 5/2 to stay up skysweat.  I have already mentioned QPR to go down before and the 4/7 is probably a better bet now given the recent results than the even money was before the weekend.

Key thing in the relegation battle seems to be the home games Villa have.  Villa play QPR/Burnley/Everton/Swansea/West ham as their five remaining home games.  You would have to imagine on average they will get sufficient points from these games to stay up.  Obviously with Burnley and QPR we have the 6 pointer factor as well with Villa have the advantage of being at home in both games and a much shorter price.  Leicester have interesting schedule left  (7 home/4 away) only one game (home to Chelsea) against the current top 5. 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/teams/leicester-city/fixtures
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/teams/aston-villa/fixtures

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-4-finish

Ladbrokes spurs 8/1 and soton 10/1 top 4 finish are decent unders on bf.  Someone wants £650 on soton at 9/1 or lower on bf.
« Last Edit: March 05, 2015, 10:29:15 AM by arbboy » Logged
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« Reply #95716 on: March 05, 2015, 10:44:25 AM »

more position summaries

this time the Premier League

in good shape

stoke v villa v wba finishing position stoke 2.6   80


stoke 12 points clear of west brom

Premier league top ten finish   Stoke City   3.6   150


stoke 8th, 7 points clear of the bottom half


going to the wire

premier league top 10 finish   west ham    3.6   40

west ham are 10th, 4 points clear of 11th. it looks likely, barring a swansea collapse that only one of this position ans the one below can win

top ten finish   newcastle   2.5   80

newcastle are 11th, 4 points behind west ham

newcastle v palace finishing position   Palace   11/4   20

Palace 5 points behind Newcastle

LMA League Manager of the year   Dyche   20/1   5
LMA League manager of the year   Koeman   4/1   20


both must still be in the running

palace v hull season points   palace   13/15.   55

Palace 30, Hull 27

palace v wba season points   palace   10/11   55

palace 30, west brom 30.

crystal palace season points   40+   ev.   90

10 points from 10 games required

Premier League Handicap   Liverpool +14   16   30

an excellent run from Liverpool i am wondering if this still has legs?

sunk

Premier league 2014-15 top half finish   Leicester Fosse   4/1   50
Premier league 2014-15 top half finish   Leicester Fosse   6/1   10
Premier league 2014-15 top half finish   Leicester Fosse   6/1   40


post promotion PR of riches to be spent proved illusory, summer recruitment was insufficient and after the heady days of beating Man U the team has struggled at both ends of the pitch

Premier League relegation   WBA   3/1   50

Pulis' appointment changed the course of this bet, now 8 points clear of relegation

Aguero premier league goals   over 32   5/1   20

injury soon after the bet was placed. has 17 with 10 games to go

Top Arsenal league Goalscorer Welbeck   11/4   200

a long way behind Sanchez and Giroud and being rotated in and out of the side

to be sent off at any stage during 2014/15 season   balotelli   9/4   10

would help if he wasn't warming the bench

Premier League top goalscorer   Lamela   150/1   10
Premier League top goalscorer   jelavic   150/1   10


jelavic has 8 goals and has performed well in an often struggling side.
Lamela has saved his rabona's for the Europs league

Top Premier League goalscorer   Rooney   14/1   100

playing defensive midfield for much of the season hasn't helped

league without the big 7   crystal palace   20/1   15

southampton have this sown up

Premier League Handicap   Crystal Palace +46   16   30


a long way off
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« Reply #95717 on: March 05, 2015, 11:08:46 AM »

Morning both Mr T's.

A tentative toe back in the waters. Last week I was close to putting Huddersfield to beat Leeds at Rugby League as a tip. I backed it myself and saw Huddersfield give away an easy 3 score lead, then come back and take the lead with 3 minutes to go only for a fluke kick to go against them and lose by 4 points. Leeds still have the old men, Sinfield, Maguire, and Peacock in the crucial positions. At times it was a bit like watching an episode of Last of the summer wine.

Playing away at Hull will be Leed's hardest game so far and we get almost 2-1 on Hull. To beat Leeds they have to defend well in the outside channel as in Hall, Hardaker, and Watkins they have 3 big powerful runners. But apart from that Leeds have little to offer and I will continue to look to oppose them.

Suggest £20 Hull @ 15/8 with betfred.
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« Reply #95718 on: March 05, 2015, 11:09:46 AM »

I haven't got the original handicap, but suspect Liverpool and Palace are probably just about above average right now.  There isn't much between them on handicap.  I expect Southampton, Stoke and West Ham are probably on top right now.  Maybe Swansea and Man U overachieving too?? I am guessing 1st isn't really possible but top 4 is still a possibility for both.

I might email Hills and try and get the original handicap.  
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« Reply #95719 on: March 05, 2015, 11:17:59 AM »

Morning both Mr T's.

A tentative toe back in the waters. Last week I was close to putting Huddersfield to beat Leeds at Rugby League as a tip. I backed it myself and saw Huddersfield give away an easy 3 score lead, then come back and take the lead with 3 minutes to go only for a fluke kick to go against them and lose by 4 points. Leeds still have the old men, Sinfield, Maguire, and Peacock in the crucial positions. At times it was a bit like watching an episode of Last of the summer wine.

Playing away at Hull will be Leed's hardest game so far and we get almost 2-1 on Hull. To beat Leeds they have to defend well in the outside channel as in Hall, Hardaker, and Watkins they have 3 big powerful runners. But apart from that Leeds have little to offer and I will continue to look to oppose them.

Suggest £20 Hull @ 15/8 with betfred.

thanks

i haven't spoken to tikay since this weekend so not sure of his plans yet

on hold at the moment

presumably prior to Cheltenham, a decision one way or another on the way forward

in the meantime, people are posting winners (all through this week) and people are getting on, so the most important thing continues....
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« Reply #95720 on: March 05, 2015, 11:18:13 AM »

I haven't got the original handicap, but suspect Liverpool and Palace are probably just about above average right now.  There isn't much between them on handicap.  I expect Southampton, Stoke and West Ham are probably on top right now.  Maybe Swansea and Man U overachieving too?? I am guessing 1st isn't really possible but top 4 is still a possibility for both.

I might email Hills and try and get the original handicap.  

Hills hcap for EPL as per the RP pre season football guide (i still got a copy)

chelski scr
MC +2
MU +8
ars +8
liverpool +14
spurs +20
everton +26
Newc +34
Stoke+36
soton +34
Swans +40
sund +40
villa +38
WH +40
hull +42
WBA +42
Leics +42
CP +46
QPR +44
Burnely +50
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« Reply #95721 on: March 05, 2015, 11:29:28 AM »

Morning both Mr T's.

A tentative toe back in the waters. Last week I was close to putting Huddersfield to beat Leeds at Rugby League as a tip. I backed it myself and saw Huddersfield give away an easy 3 score lead, then come back and take the lead with 3 minutes to go only for a fluke kick to go against them and lose by 4 points. Leeds still have the old men, Sinfield, Maguire, and Peacock in the crucial positions. At times it was a bit like watching an episode of Last of the summer wine.

Playing away at Hull will be Leed's hardest game so far and we get almost 2-1 on Hull. To beat Leeds they have to defend well in the outside channel as in Hall, Hardaker, and Watkins they have 3 big powerful runners. But apart from that Leeds have little to offer and I will continue to look to oppose them.

Suggest £20 Hull @ 15/8 with betfred.

thanks

i haven't spoken to tikay since this weekend so not sure of his plans yet

on hold at the moment

presumably prior to Cheltenham, a decision one way or another on the way forward

in the meantime, people are posting winners (all through this week) and people are getting on, so the most important thing continues....

Feel free to stick bets on if you want, Rich.

We need to address various Fred issues, but I'm flat to the boards this week, & will do so soonest. I promised Phil I'd post some stuff earlier this week, Tuesday I think, but I just ran out of time & energy. I'll do so soonest, though.
 
If we can solve our problems, I have no problem continuing, but, personally, I think we need to keep it cool. It's intended to be a fun thread for recreational punters, £10, £20 & £30 regulars like hector (& so many others), & we have learned a ton of stuff from the Elders, had a bunch of fun & earned a few bob along the way.

I have no interest in continuing though if we are going to have bad blood. That's not aimed at anyone in particular, it's just my view. I work hard Next Door, & I come here to relax, & have bants. 

It remains the case, of course, that if anyone else fancies taking over Fred in another guise, please feel free.

It would sound like moaning if I outlined my work schedule for the last 3 weeks, including this week, but it's as much as I can manage (& I love it), & Fred is my escape from the woes of moany-woany poker players & office politics. I hope it's the same for many others, too.

I'm working tonight, & as I said earlier this week, I'm due to spend most of this weekend on allotment duties. Might even rake some bunkers, too.   

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« Reply #95722 on: March 05, 2015, 11:40:51 AM »

8 left in the champ hurdle.  How likely all 8 run?  just thinking of getting the 1/4 1,2,3 now nrnb as every horse is ew value anyway.  If there are 1 or 2 nr's then 1/4 123 is a gift.  Anyone got any thoughts?

Ladbrokes gone 10/3 the new one today for example (so 5/6 a place when its 1/2 a place on bf) and that assumes all 8 run if it cuts up to 5 or 6 runners then it's a massive freeroll betting early.

Be careful with this, lads are apparently saying antepost rules don't apply and will only pay 2 places with an NR

Seems sneaky but just check terms with different books I guess
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« Reply #95723 on: March 05, 2015, 11:43:32 AM »

Morning both Mr T's.

A tentative toe back in the waters. Last week I was close to putting Huddersfield to beat Leeds at Rugby League as a tip. I backed it myself and saw Huddersfield give away an easy 3 score lead, then come back and take the lead with 3 minutes to go only for a fluke kick to go against them and lose by 4 points. Leeds still have the old men, Sinfield, Maguire, and Peacock in the crucial positions. At times it was a bit like watching an episode of Last of the summer wine.

Playing away at Hull will be Leed's hardest game so far and we get almost 2-1 on Hull. To beat Leeds they have to defend well in the outside channel as in Hall, Hardaker, and Watkins they have 3 big powerful runners. But apart from that Leeds have little to offer and I will continue to look to oppose them.

Suggest £20 Hull @ 15/8 with betfred.

thanks

i haven't spoken to tikay since this weekend so not sure of his plans yet

on hold at the moment

presumably prior to Cheltenham, a decision one way or another on the way forward

in the meantime, people are posting winners (all through this week) and people are getting on, so the most important thing continues....

Feel free to stick bets on if you want, Rich.

We need to address various Fred issues, but I'm flat to the boards this week, & will do so soonest. I promised Phil I'd post some stuff earlier this week, Tuesday I think, but I just ran out of time & energy. I'll do so soonest, though.
 
If we can solve our problems, I have no problem continuing, but, personally, I think we need to keep it cool. It's intended to be a fun thread for recreational punters, £10, £20 & £30 regulars like hector (& so many others), & we have learned a ton of stuff from the Elders, had a bunch of fun & earned a few bob along the way.

I have no interest in continuing though if we are going to have bad blood. That's not aimed at anyone in particular, it's just my view. I work hard Next Door, & I come here to relax, & have bants. 

It remains the case, of course, that if anyone else fancies taking over Fred in another guise, please feel free.

It would sound like moaning if I outlined my work schedule for the last 3 weeks, including this week, but it's as much as I can manage (& I love it), & Fred is my escape from the woes of moany-woany poker players & office politics. I hope it's the same for many others, too.

I'm working tonight, & as I said earlier this week, I'm due to spend most of this weekend on allotment duties. Might even rake some bunkers, too.   



right that is broadly my position

- placing the bets and the admin and the write ups are not the issue. i can do them, and when the thread is humming they are enjoyable
- having to deal with bad blood and fall outs is not something i want to do
- i would prefer it if a wide range of people posted ideas. Would especially prefer it if some of the "elders" who are absent for various reasons posted again, not because they are required for the thread to be profitable, but because their input is missed

so with that in mind we have £20 at 14-1 Robertson next Peterborough manager

He's now 2/5.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/peterborough/next-permanent-manager

what now? (cover? ride?)





 
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« Reply #95724 on: March 05, 2015, 11:49:29 AM »

Morning both Mr T's.

A tentative toe back in the waters. Last week I was close to putting Huddersfield to beat Leeds at Rugby League as a tip. I backed it myself and saw Huddersfield give away an easy 3 score lead, then come back and take the lead with 3 minutes to go only for a fluke kick to go against them and lose by 4 points. Leeds still have the old men, Sinfield, Maguire, and Peacock in the crucial positions. At times it was a bit like watching an episode of Last of the summer wine.

Playing away at Hull will be Leed's hardest game so far and we get almost 2-1 on Hull. To beat Leeds they have to defend well in the outside channel as in Hall, Hardaker, and Watkins they have 3 big powerful runners. But apart from that Leeds have little to offer and I will continue to look to oppose them.

Suggest £20 Hull @ 15/8 with betfred.

thanks

i haven't spoken to tikay since this weekend so not sure of his plans yet

on hold at the moment

presumably prior to Cheltenham, a decision one way or another on the way forward

in the meantime, people are posting winners (all through this week) and people are getting on, so the most important thing continues....

Feel free to stick bets on if you want, Rich.

We need to address various Fred issues, but I'm flat to the boards this week, & will do so soonest. I promised Phil I'd post some stuff earlier this week, Tuesday I think, but I just ran out of time & energy. I'll do so soonest, though.
 
If we can solve our problems, I have no problem continuing, but, personally, I think we need to keep it cool. It's intended to be a fun thread for recreational punters, £10, £20 & £30 regulars like hector (& so many others), & we have learned a ton of stuff from the Elders, had a bunch of fun & earned a few bob along the way.

I have no interest in continuing though if we are going to have bad blood. That's not aimed at anyone in particular, it's just my view. I work hard Next Door, & I come here to relax, & have bants. 

It remains the case, of course, that if anyone else fancies taking over Fred in another guise, please feel free.

It would sound like moaning if I outlined my work schedule for the last 3 weeks, including this week, but it's as much as I can manage (& I love it), & Fred is my escape from the woes of moany-woany poker players & office politics. I hope it's the same for many others, too.

I'm working tonight, & as I said earlier this week, I'm due to spend most of this weekend on allotment duties. Might even rake some bunkers, too.   



right that is broadly my position

- placing the bets and the admin and the write ups are not the issue. i can do them, and when the thread is humming they are enjoyable
- having to deal with bad blood and fall outs is not something i want to do
- i would prefer it if a wide range of people posted ideas. Would especially prefer it if some of the "elders" who are absent for various reasons posted again, not because they are required for the thread to be profitable, but because their input is missed

so with that in mind we have £20 at 14-1 Robertson next Peterborough manager

He's now 2/5.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/peterborough/next-permanent-manager

what now? (cover? ride?)





 


 win or lose win or lose
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« Reply #95725 on: March 05, 2015, 11:58:44 AM »

8 left in the champ hurdle.  How likely all 8 run?  just thinking of getting the 1/4 1,2,3 now nrnb as every horse is ew value anyway.  If there are 1 or 2 nr's then 1/4 123 is a gift.  Anyone got any thoughts?

Ladbrokes gone 10/3 the new one today for example (so 5/6 a place when its 1/2 a place on bf) and that assumes all 8 run if it cuts up to 5 or 6 runners then it's a massive freeroll betting early.

Be careful with this, lads are apparently saying antepost rules don't apply and will only pay 2 places with an NR

Seems sneaky but just check terms with different books I guess

Incredible if Lads are pulling that stunt.  How is this not an ante post market?  If you were betting on a Monday morning for the feature race on the Saturday Ante post rules would apply.  This is 6 days away from the race so how do ante post rules not apply?  It's not my fault they want to bet to 1/4 123 and go top price every horse in the race in a terrible ew race.
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« Reply #95726 on: March 05, 2015, 12:04:59 PM »

our Cheltenham book is "embryonic"

some ante-post stuff. Here it is

Horses   2015 Champion Hurdle   Tiger Roll   33/1   25 (free bet)
horses   champion hurdle   clever cookie   66/1   40 (a loser)
horses   king george-gold cup double   silvanaco conti   20/1   10
horses   to win at cheltenham- any race   vautour   9/2   50

silvanaco is 3/1 jolly for the gold cup. vautour is 5/2 for the JLT,

over the next few days, after all the previews and when all the offers are "live" we should build this up, please

We would love it if a number of people would contribute.

When a major festival is on, and the thread is busy, it is really enjoyable, but we are in your hands.....
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« Reply #95727 on: March 05, 2015, 12:08:34 PM »

just for the record, i have done some 2.9 barca for tikay

if things carry on, i can post the slip

if not i can take the bet off him


i might start recapping the last week for a few sports tomorrow, see how time goes, have been wiped out most of today

after all we had a 10-0 winner over the weekend....

Ooh, top man, thank you.

I'll certainly have that bet, whether it be on or off thread, please.

PS - 2.9 for Barca  to win what?

La Liga

3/2/2015 5:16 PM    Single bet    

    open Liga BBVA 2014/2015 (League Winner)
    FC Barcelona
    ?

   67.00    2.90

currently 2.3 best

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/spain/la-liga-primera/winner
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« Reply #95728 on: March 05, 2015, 12:12:19 PM »

It seems like the F1 market is still forming, however I do have a couple more bets to suggest:

1) Season Match Bet: Ricciardo vs Kvyat - Kvyat 7/2 with Sky Bet. Daniil showed he is no slouch last season, Ricciardo may well have the pace early on in the season, but I expect Daniil to be there or thereabouts. 7/2 is too high. Suggest £20.

2) Season Match Bet: Ricciardo vs Vettel - Vettel 6/4 with Sky Bet. From pre-season testing it seems as if the Ferrari is quicker than the Red Bull. While Red Bull do historically have the better development rate, their Renault engine is down on power and they will suffer at races later in the season such as Spa & Monza. Suggest £25.

Note: Feel free to scale the bet sizes up or down, I'm never entirely sure what stake to suggest when it's not my money!

Also still suggest getting on Rosberg to win the title at between 3/1 and 4/1.

Will make more suggestions as the market forms.

would love to do these but, once again, Sky bet is a no go for us..even via a third party because of tikay's contract with them

Rosberg, trying to get 3-1 on the exchange. fixed odds 11/4 best and 5/2 where we can get on
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« Reply #95729 on: March 05, 2015, 12:20:29 PM »

Line for snp seats is currently 42.5 i would think they will do much better maybe not aswell as current polls though
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/04/snp-set-for-56-of-59-scottish-seats-in-general-election-poll-suggests

suggest £30 @10/11 or better for over 42.5 seats for snp in mays election
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