Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Really like Value at Risk in the potato race tomorrow. The yard, the step up in trip, the ground coming softer won't hurt, and if I'm being honest, the dope angle, are all positives and there's 12-1 available if anyone can get you on with PP. Don't like the place terms though. Anyone likely to go four places in the morning? Want to suggest Fred's 1pt bet ew at 10s or over if they do.

first things first

the potato race?
at least i had to only get to the third race to find the horse!

1pt e/w ish....

£10.00 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
3m Novice Hurdle
Outright Betting
EW 1/4 1,2,3    Value At Risk    10/1    
Total stake   £ 20.00
Estimated return   £ 145.00
Full stake   £ 20.00
Full estimated return   £ 145.00

It's sponsored by a potato grower, Albert Bartlett.

Shockingly inappropriate for a Festival race.

The JCB Triumph Hurdle is so much sexier, JCB are manufacturers of truly awesome hydraulic backhoe excavators.

For today's quiz, name the very famous location where this photo was taken. If you don't recognize that stunning wrought iron balustrade & railings, you have been reading the wrong websites. 

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

Good stuff Adzy, thank you. That'll keep Tighty busy in the morning, but at least we have some solid material to work with.

Another vote for Hargham for me, I think you want 7-1 4 places if possible in the morning (7/1 3 places is ok, but you can only get 6/1 with 4 right now, 7/1 is a bit better).  I also like Petite Parissiene.  You can get 12/1 3 places with Shy, which is nice but out of bounds for thread.  Hills, PP and b365 are 4 places and 8/1 and 9/1.  Just have to wait and hope for better in the morning.

edit.  sky would have been really good if you could get on because i forgot they were free bet if favourite wins in the first.   Unfortunately they have just gone 11/1 Petite Parissiene.  No good for thread, but should be good for those who can get sky offers.

£12 e/w 3 places

 13:30 PETITE PARISIENNE (EW) (Horse Racing Outright - Race) Odds: 11/1 Stake: 24.00 Possible Return:  189.00

(emptying betvictor hence the stake size)

Want me to make a deposit, Rich?

[TightEnd]

Kovalev v Pascal

I like Pascal by decision at 9/1.

No doubt about it Kovalev is a big puncher, however I see Pascal fighting a smart fight with lots of movement. This will frustrate Kovalev, chasing Pascal round the ring for 12 rounds throwing at air... Pascal will throw punches in bursts with his un orthodox style, he has a proven chin after going toe to toe with Froch a number of years ago.

Pascal being the home fighter in Montreal where not many travelling fighters get a decision, I think Kovalev can only win by knocking Pascal out. The reward for Montreal and the local boxing fans should Pascal win would be a unification fight against who other than Montreals Adonis Stevenson. 2 hometown fighters fighting to unify the division.

The Kovalev v Stevenson fight is a lot less likely to happen with Stevenson signing with Al Haymon and Showtime and Kovalev working with HBO. The Mayweather v Pacman is a one off, I don't see HBO and Showtime making this a regular business move.

Being a huge boxing fan and seeing how corrupt it can be I see an edge in Pascal getting the decision should he stay on his feet for the 12 rounds.

Welcome to the thread Chelseaboy, we've also got a boxing thread if you wish to pop by. About your selection, would you keep Pascal by KO onside if offered 19-1 instead of 10-1?

Pascal is 6-1 on Betfair's 1x2 market which is a full point better than Victor's 5-1. After we deduct Tikay's 5% Betfair commsion we get paid out at 6.7 which would cover points and the KO at effectively 9-1 and 19-1.

i know bazza is anti, which with his knowledge we have to respect but it's chelseaboy's first recc

if its ok with him i am going to adapt it for McGlashan's post

Jean Pascal Match Odds    7.2    £10.00    
£62.00
Ref: 47436160880M Matched: 09:53 13-Mar-15

this is significantly better than any outright price offered on fixed odds

http://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/sergey-kovalev-v-jean-pascal/winner

[TightEnd]

Good stuff Adzy, thank you. That'll keep Tighty busy in the morning, but at least we have some solid material to work with.

Another vote for Hargham for me, I think you want 7-1 4 places if possible in the morning (7/1 3 places is ok, but you can only get 6/1 with 4 right now, 7/1 is a bit better).  I also like Petite Parissiene.  You can get 12/1 3 places with Shy, which is nice but out of bounds for thread.  Hills, PP and b365 are 4 places and 8/1 and 9/1.  Just have to wait and hope for better in the morning.

edit.  sky would have been really good if you could get on because i forgot they were free bet if favourite wins in the first.   Unfortunately they have just gone 11/1 Petite Parissiene.  No good for thread, but should be good for those who can get sky offers.

£12 e/w 3 places

 13:30 PETITE PARISIENNE (EW) (Horse Racing Outright - Race) Odds: 11/1 Stake: 24.00 Possible Return:  189.00

(emptying betvictor hence the stake size)

Want me to make a deposit, Rich?

let me PM you shortly please

[tikay]

Sorry, Tighty I assumed Tikay went up to Ayrshire to got the seed potatoes for his allotment from Albert.

No no, Tal-Bloke (where are you Tal?) is the spud man.

[tikay]

Kovalev v Pascal

I like Pascal by decision at 9/1.

No doubt about it Kovalev is a big puncher, however I see Pascal fighting a smart fight with lots of movement. This will frustrate Kovalev, chasing Pascal round the ring for 12 rounds throwing at air... Pascal will throw punches in bursts with his un orthodox style, he has a proven chin after going toe to toe with Froch a number of years ago.

Pascal being the home fighter in Montreal where not many travelling fighters get a decision, I think Kovalev can only win by knocking Pascal out. The reward for Montreal and the local boxing fans should Pascal win would be a unification fight against who other than Montreals Adonis Stevenson. 2 hometown fighters fighting to unify the division.

The Kovalev v Stevenson fight is a lot less likely to happen with Stevenson signing with Al Haymon and Showtime and Kovalev working with HBO. The Mayweather v Pacman is a one off, I don't see HBO and Showtime making this a regular business move.

Being a huge boxing fan and seeing how corrupt it can be I see an edge in Pascal getting the decision should he stay on his feet for the 12 rounds.

Welcome to the thread Chelseaboy, we've also got a boxing thread if you wish to pop by. About your selection, would you keep Pascal by KO onside if offered 19-1 instead of 10-1?

Pascal is 6-1 on Betfair's 1x2 market which is a full point better than Victor's 5-1. After we deduct Tikay's 5% Betfair commsion we get paid out at 6.7 which would cover points and the KO at effectively 9-1 and 19-1.

i know bazza is anti, which with his knowledge we have to respect but it's chelseaboy's first recc
if its ok with him i am going to adapt it for McGlashan's post

Jean Pascal Match Odds    7.2    £10.00    
£62.00
Ref: 47436160880M Matched: 09:53 13-Mar-15

this is significantly better than any outright price offered on fixed odds

http://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/sergey-kovalev-v-jean-pascal/winner

Bazza is "follow-blind" with Boxing, so it's hard to go against him, but as you say, tradition dictates that new Posters get auto-bet first time in.

[simonnatur]

Sorry, Tighty I assumed Tikay went up to Ayrshire to got the seed potatoes for his allotment from Albert.

No no, Tal-Bloke (where are you Tal?) is the spud man.

Must be a busy man, didn't even have time to give us his fancy for Crufts..

[tikay]

Sorry, Tighty I assumed Tikay went up to Ayrshire to got the seed potatoes for his allotment from Albert.

No no, Tal-Bloke (where are you Tal?) is the spud man.

Must be a busy man, didn't even have time to give us his fancy for Crufts..

As it happens, nobody priced Crufts up this year. They did not even do a "Who poisoned the dog?" market.

I would have backed the winner, too, for sure, even Karabiner predicted it.

 

[tikay]

I'm crap with the maths on this sort of stuff, but Betfair SB have 3-1 on McCoy to ride a winner today.

Hargam 13-2
Ned B 9-2
Carlingford 11-1
Princely Conn 10-1
Fletchers Flyer 20-1

If someone could run the numbers, but that seems ok to me? Wont recommend until someone confirms if its good or not!

Anyone from Team Maths around, to run these numbers? Doobs is busy actuaryating, & Argue seems to be on a sabbbatical.

[TightEnd]

Overnight from Melbourne

practice 1

1) Nico Rosberg, Mercedes 1:29.557

2) Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes, 1:29.586

3) Valtteri Bottas, Williams, 1:30.748

4) Carlos Sainz, Toro Rosso, 1:31.014

5) Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari, 1:31.029

6) Max Verstappen, Toro Rosso 1:31.067

7) Felipe Massa, Williams, 1:31.188

8 Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari, 1:31.310

9) Pastor Maldonado, Lotus 1:31.451

10) Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull, 1:31.570

11) Daniil Kvyat, Red Bull, 1:32.073

12) Sergio Perez, Force India, 1:32.247

13) Nico Hulkenberg, Force India, 1:32.261

14) Jenson Button, McLaren, 1:34.542

15) Kevin Magnussen, McLaren, 1:34.785

16) Romain Grosjean, Lotus, 2:17.782

17) Marcus Ericsson, Sauber, No time

18) Felipe Nasr, Sauber, No time

19) Will Stevens, Manor, No time

20) Roberto Merhi, Manor, No time


practice 2

Practice Two timesheet: 1) Rosberg, Mercedes, 1:27.697; 2) Hamilton, Mercedes, 1:27.797; 3) Vettel, Ferrari, 1:28.412; 4) Raikkonen, Ferrari, 1:28.842; 5) Bottas, Williams, 1:29.265; 6) Kvyat, Red Bull, 1:30.016; 7) Sainz, Toro Rosso, 1:30.071; 8 Maldonado, Lotus, 1:30.104; 9) Grosjean, Lotus, 1:30.205; 10) Hulkenberg, Force India, 1:30.473; 11) Nasr, Sauber, 1:30.755; 12) Perez, Force India, 1:30.980; 13) Button, McLaren, 1:31.387; 14) Verstappen, Toro Rosso, 1:31.395; 15) Ericsson, Sauber, 1:32.303; 16) Magnussen, McLaren, 1:33.289.

Ricciardo, Massa, Stevens and Merhi did not set a time


cliffs

Mercedes up to a second clear of the field
Ferrari, Williams, Red Bull best of the rest
Ferrari's long-run pace looked very solid, although their position ahead of Williams may be fuel-dependent.
Huge problems at Mclaren, 5 seconds off the pace


qualifying overnight tonight

Hamilton is 11/10 in one spot only for the race and Rosberg has been backed in

mechanical problems aside, its a two horse race

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/australian-grand-prix/winner

without Mercedes, Vettel is an underdog to ottas, which piqued my attention

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/australian-grand-prix/w-o-mercedes

No Mclaren to finish is into 2.75, we are on at 3.65

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/australian-grand-prix/mclaren-total-finishers

[TightEnd]

oh and the problems at mclaren, all the smaller teams including sauber etc must bode well for toro rosso, lotus etc getting in the points

that suits our positions too

[tikay]

Looks like Mardyarse has had a tiff with the pit girl.

If he gets his end away tonight, he'll finish on pole, for sure.

[TightEnd]

some pictures from yesterday

VAUTOUR: "fastest sectional from 3 out on New Course (any race/dist) in last 5 Festivals." said timeform

Click to see full-size image.

plenty of men gave it some welly after this

Click to see full-size image.

a 33-1 winner in the Plate, beating ours into second

Click to see full-size image.

Tinkler tinkler little star

Click to see full-size image.

[Nico29]

I'm crap with the maths on this sort of stuff, but Betfair SB have 3-1 on McCoy to ride a winner today.

Hargam 13-2
Ned B 9-2
Carlingford 11-1
Princely Conn 10-1
Fletchers Flyer 20-1

If someone could run the numbers, but that seems ok to me? Wont recommend until someone confirms if its good or not!

Anyone from Team Maths around, to run these numbers? Doobs is busy actuaryating, & Argue seems to be on a sabbbatical.

At these prices seems around evens, maybe even slightly odds on.

3's def very good.

Have it at 53% chance at these prices. About 10/11.

[mickyp]

mickyp is reading

come on Mr Paterson, my anticipation is high...!

Running short on time, heading to a gold cup brunch. My fancy in the fox hunters is CURRENT EVENT, the most unexposed horse imo,  ticks all the boxes on the stats front. Rain would be a concern, currently 11/1 best price.Dont think the price will contract much and expect a few horses to attract support. Can suggest 10ew at sp. First thread bet  ( properly last)